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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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I can add another anecdotal story.

Cousin who called me a traitor for being gay and voting for Queen, texted me and said "Fine. I'm with her."

So....progress.
 
I can add another anecdotal story.

Cousin who called me a traitor for being gay and voting for Queen, texted me and said "Fine. I'm with her."

So....progress.

Believe.

Jesus, if we can just make it through this one, the demographics are going to keep shifting, and within a couple of presidential election cycles we may be able to put the finality knife in this awful thing that it so much deserves.
 
40Also, it's hilarious how trump may do worse than even bob dole in terms of the share of the latino vote. Gerald Ford got the worst share of the latino vote in the last 40 year with 18% of the latino vote with some of the data I have seen. Trump will probably not even break 20% of the latino vote and maybe even 15% if he's really unlucky.

It's even worse. The electorate was 5% hispanic in 1996. It'll be more than 12% this year.
 

mo60

Member
It's even worse. The electorate was 5% hispanic in 1996. It'll be more than 12% this year.

The impact will be way larger on trump than it was on dole especially if a lot of hispanics turn out to vote this year. Actually it was gerald ford that got the worst share of the hispanic vote in the last 40 years or so. It's hilarious how trump is going to worse in terms of the share of the hispanic vote than the guy who barely lost his first election after serving as the president of the US for like two years.
 
Guise, for those of you still arguing for someone flashier than Hillary to be her VP, that will never, ever happen. Rule number 1 (or was it 2?) of picking a second in command anywhere is that you don't let said second in command overshadow you.
 
Guise, for those of you still arguing for someone flashier than Hillary to be her VP, that will never, ever happen. Rule number 1 (or was it 2?) of picking a second in command anywhere is that you don't let said second in command overshadow you.

When your unfavorable numbers are this high the conventional wisdom goes out of the window.
 
We survived the RNC and to think that Ted Freaking Cruz was the only person in the building over the course of 4 days who demonstrated that they possessed a pair of gonads. What a time to be alive.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Guise, for those of you still arguing for someone flashier than Hillary to be her VP, that will never, ever happen. Rule number 1 (or was it 2?) of picking a second in command anywhere is that you don't let said second in command overshadow you.

VP usually doesn't help anyway, but it can hurt. So I agree, though the help Warren gets Clinton would be bad for her down the road rather than immediately
 

Ecotic

Member
Warren brings media eyeballs in a way that Kaine or Pence never can achieve. Any speech she made would be covered live on cable, or reshown dozens of times throughout the day. People would share her attack speeches widely on social media. She would be an incredibly desirable interview. She would be the biggest story of the campaign for a solid month or two and that's a good thing if she can convey an effective message while reporters and cameras rush towards her. She's just infectious to cover.
 
You still haven't accepted plain Kaine?

If Hillary Clinton dies on inauguration day, would Elizabeth Warren be able to assume the Presidency?

That's the core question that Clinton is asking herself.

In my view, it's a no.
You may disagree.
But the Queen presumably agrees with me if she chooses someone like Kaine.

It's also weird it's only Warrenmania, very little Perezmania, or Brownmania.

Democrats are so dumb, that line about falling in love vs falling in line is so true.
 
You still haven't accepted plain Kaine?

If Hillary Clinton dies on inauguration day, would Elizabeth Warren be able to assume the Presidency?

That's the core question that Clinton is asking herself.

In my view, it's a no.
You may disagree.
But the Queen presumably agrees with me if she chooses someone like Kaine.

It's also weird it's only Warrenmania, very little Perezmania, or Brownmania.

Democrats are so dumb, that line about falling in love vs falling in line is so true.

I mean, ya, it's going to be Kaine or Vilsack. I'm fine with that.

But,, I do think Warren is prepared to be President. She's at least as experienced as Obama was, really. I think Warren is smart and would surround herself with the right people.

As to the mania thing...we can't afford Brownmania. We can't lose the Senate seat which would be pretty much gone if she picked Brown. Perez is...fine. He's got cred, but he's got no national presence.

It's like asking why people don't throw their underwear on stage for the band the plays at my local bar. They're really good, probably just as good as...I don't know...Smash Mouth, but no one's asking them to sing songs for Shrek 5.
 

itschris

Member
So are we expecting Hillary to text out her VP choice later tonight?

Maybe even earlier:

New York Times: Tim Kaine Seems Likely for Hillary Clinton’s No. 2, but Liberals Balk

Mrs. Clinton is widely expected to announce her choice in an email to supporters while on a campaign swing in Florida on Friday afternoon, an attempt to regain momentum the day after her Republican opponent, Donald J. Trump, accepted his party’s nomination in Cleveland. With Mr. Kaine emerging as a clear favorite, one group already expressed disappointment at the prospect of the former governor of Virginia joining the ticket: liberals.
 
I think she's obviously smart. Although she has a (bad) populist streak, which I disagree with.

I think she knows the areas she knows really well.

But she doesn't seem particularly interested in the things she's not interested in and doesn't know.

Perez isn't ready either. Booker isn't. Castro sure as fuck isn't.

I'm not sure why everyone compares people to Obama, he's really a one-off. I don't think we'll see anyone like him for forever.
 
Booker is someone I didn't realize I wanted until like earlier today. He was great in Cleveland. Really effective. And, I hate to admit it, but I'm thinking a guy on the ticket is probably a good idea. Just to calm people down, I guess. (Hey, it's shitty but it is what it is) I'd love it to be Warren but I'll eat my oatmeal and mostly enjoy it. It's just...I don't see any chemistry between the two of them. I saw it with Warren. I saw it with Booker. Hell, I saw it with Castro. Kane and Clinton just seem so awkward. But what the heck do I know.

Also, I think Hillary is going to make bank this weekend.
 

mo60

Member
We survived the RNC and to think that Ted Freaking Cruz was the only person in the building over the course of 4 days who demonstrated that they possessed a pair of gonads. What a time to be alive.

If anyone in the room did what ted cruz did trump's camapign team and the RNC would have made them look really bad. I don't remember on what day it was on but if I recall some of the people running the RNC were going after delegates during the morning/afternoon session that showed any hesistation towards trump.
 

watershed

Banned
I still can't get over Christie. He endorses Trump after crashing and burning his own campaign, he loses the veepstakes which he clearly wanted (so much so that personally groveled for it), he gives a loud and angry speech at the RNC thinking his only future is as Trump's attorney general, then watches as Cruz shows real balls and makes a future for himself in the post-Trump GOP that Christie didn't even imagine was possible. Damn.
 
i havent seen their own Youtube vids, but this Diamond & Silk interview on the YoungTurks channel is hilarious.

i really dont buy them as legit Trump fans, just in it for a quick buck lol
 
So speech was too dark and went too long. What a political genius.

At least no Crooked Hilary.

START LEAKING THE VP PICK HILDAWG.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/22):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
 

Grexeno

Member
"I really want Warren as VP so I'm going to make up reasons why it should be her and not Kaine despite all evidence to the contrary."
 

Drek

Member
How is a white guy speaking Spanish supposed to excite us? You really want to excite us get someone from our community up there someone that can really relate our struggles. I find it a bit insulting that just because he speaks Spanish that's good enough to get the Latino vote. It comes off pretty half passed imo.
Because not speaking through s translator when delivering a clear message of support plays orders of magnitudes better than doing so through an interpreter. When one side of the isle want to force English as the national language a high ranking politician making the effort to communicate with the roughly 5% who speak it a their only language. Also, it's not like he just learned Spanish sitting in s classroom, he deferred law school for a year to do charity work in Honduras.

He has a long history of strong support for immigrants too. He's been on the issue longer than all the other options and has pushed for reform more than all the other options.

Kaine is a more effective surrogate to the Hispanic community than everyone but Perez or Beccera, who both had very little chance due to other weaknesses as VP.
 
What did the poll say?

They added the positives of those polled (Trump leaning voters):

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And if you check Frank Luntz's twitter, it's like Trump won over a ton of Democrats. LOL.


Morning Joe going with "the media is out of touch with regular folks". It's opposite-Diabolozing.
 

watershed

Banned
It reminds me of election night 2012 and Fox News. Eventually poll numbers and percentages become actual votes and electoral totals. Those numbers are harder to fudge.
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Joe is always an annoying prick, but the show is unwatchable now because Mika has become just as unbearable!

Nicole Wallace makes more sense these days.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
What do you think the race would look like right now if it were Jeb, Cruz, or little Marco?

I think Jeb and Rubio would be up 4-5. The convention wouldn't have been anywhere near as bad and they'd get a decent bump.
 
That a bunch of Trump leaning voters liked the speech.
Indeed, and something that bothers me a bit about the poll on top of that is that from my understanding is that while CNN at least admits that it's biased towards Republicans everytime they bring it up (which Morning Joe just entirely disregarded and treated it like it was a poll of all Americans), but even they don't emphasize enough what the implications of 60% of these people viewing Trump as taking into America in the right direction before his speech really are.

From my understanding, that 60% figure was at the start of the convention. In other words, before Cruz did what he did. So the uptick may not necessarily be even from Trump's speech itself, but the "rally-around-the-flag" sort of effect the Cruz's backstabbing had on people's view of Trump. Obviously, a lot of it did come from the speech, but it's impossible to know how much of it is due to the speech and how much of it was due to Cruz and everything else that happened, especially since Cruz's failure to endorse definitely had a huge effect on the floor and very well could have had that same effect on the people who were polled since they largely are on and the same and we just don't know since there were no polls of these people in between Cruz's speech and Trump's.

That's not something I've even seen CNN talk about at all so far even with all the caveats they bring up every time they bring up the poll, but it's definitely something that should deserve mentioning as well and it's kinda frustrating that they haven't since there's no doubt it at least had some effect and makes those numbers even more shaky and meaningless.


TL;DR-Poll is shit. CNN is shit. Morning Joe is super shit.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Diavolo, good news is Bernie was watching and he's going to go ham next week! Finally you will see Bernie do what he must do per divine law!!!
 
What do you think the race would look like right now if it were Jeb, Cruz, or little Marco?

Jeb! - Would be a tough race, but Clinton would edge it.

Cruz - Terrible, would be an electoral landslide. Seriously, what swing state would he win?

Little Marco - Same, can't he him winning an Ohio or PA.

Kasich was the golden boy, and they dumped him in the toilet.
 
What do you think the race would look like right now if it were Jeb, Cruz, or little Marco?
Against Jeb Bush, Hillary would had likely won the election since the Bush name is still toxic. The Bushes are in denial thinking they had a chance this year. Perhaps 10-15 years from know, Prescott Bush can run when there's less toxicity with the Bush name.

Ted Cruz would had lost as well, but I think the results would had been a lot closer than we expected.

I'm quite confident that if Trump did not embarrassed Little Marco, he would had won against Hillary. Hillary unfavorable rating is a lot higher than people would like to admit and Little Marco comes from a huge swing state. Then again, his own state pick Trump over Little Marco. Hmm........maybe Hillary might won agaist Little Marco

Edit: kasiach would had been the threat against Hillary, but thank goodness he's not running!
 
I still think Kasich has some serious skeletons in his closet. He went nuts at reporters, especially female ones, but it was never really reported because he was never a serious candidate.

Slapping a tape recorder out of a reporter's hands when they ask a question you don't like isn't going to go over well when people are actually paying attention to you.

I don't think Kasich would have been as much of a slam dunk as Republicans believe.
 

Diablos

Member
Indeed, and something that bothers me a bit about the poll on top of that is that from my understanding is that while CNN at least admits that it's biased towards Republicans everytime they bring it up (which Morning Joe just entirely disregarded and treated it like it was a poll of all Americans), but even they don't emphasize enough what the implications of 60% of these people viewing Trump as taking into America in the right direction before his speech really are.

From my understanding, that 60% figure was at the start of the convention. In other words, before Cruz did what he did. So the uptick may not necessarily be even from Trump's speech itself, but the "rally-around-the-flag" sort of effect the Cruz's backstabbing had on people's view of Trump. Obviously, a lot of it did come from the speech, but it's impossible to know how much of it is due to the speech and how much of it was due to Cruz and everything else that happened, especially since Cruz's failure to endorse definitely had a huge effect on the floor and very well could have had that same effect on the people who were polled since they largely are on and the same and we just don't know since there were no polls of these people in between Cruz's speech and Trump's.

That's not something I've even seen CNN talk about at all so far even with all the caveats they bring up every time they bring up the poll, but it's definitely something that should deserve mentioning as well and it's kinda frustrating that they haven't since there's no doubt it at least had some effect and makes those numbers even more shaky and meaningless.


TL;DR-Poll is shit. CNN is shit. Morning Joe is super shit.
What's shit is how they spin it. When you dress up a poll to be something it isn't and keep talking about it, that can be misleading to people watching. It's toxic for public opinion and discourse. To your point, they don't even care to dive into the specifics, they just want to make it mold to a narrative of sorts.

Diavolo, good news is Bernie was watching and he's going to go ham next week! Finally you will see Bernie do what he must do per divine law!!!
I know. I'm actually excited. Gaining some respect for him now that he is coming back down to Earth, but he gave the GOP a lot of ammo during the what once seemed to be an endless primary.
 

Amir0x

Banned
I still think Kasich has some serious skeletons in his closet. He went nuts at reporters, especially female ones, but it was never really reported because he was never a serious candidate.

Slapping a tape recorder out of a reporters hands when they ask a question you don't like isn't going to go over well when people are actually paying attention to you.

I don't think Kasich would have been as much of a slam dunk as Republicans believe.

It's so odd to picture Kasich being aggressive about anything, let alone slapping a tape recorder out of someone's hand hehe

I still can't believe Trump and company think it's good strategy to repeatedly attack him, considering his state. This is one profoundly stupid campaign.
 

Diablos

Member
It's so odd to picture Kasich being aggressive about anything, let alone slapping a tape recorder out of someone's hand hehe

I still can't believe Trump and company think it's good strategy to repeatedly attack him, considering his state. This is one profoundly stupid campaign.
John King lol yes him said it best. Trump is betting on angry white people voting like never before. He made that abundantly clear.
 
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