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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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hawk2025

Member
Are there any polls with crosstabs on how the LBGT community feels about different issues?

For example, where does national security or terrorism falls? Did it change after Orlando, or is the sentiment still largely related to the domestic situation?


Any data at all would be very helpful.
 

OmniOne

Member
I don't get Silvers model.

He has states shaded blue equaling 332 electoral votes, but his counter says 292.7 Electoral votes for Clinton. What am I missing?
 

BiggNife

Member
Cn_Zfy_VUAAy9bX.jpg:large

Where is this from?

538 still seems to have Hillary's odds going down every day which I find bizarre considering how everyone seems to agree the RNC was a shit show.
 
538 still seems to have Hillary's odds going down every day which I find bizarre considering how everyone seems to agree the RNC was a shit show.

Read Sam Wang's site regularly.

Sam Wang said:
Measuring the effect of a particular political event is challenging. Any single poll spans multiple days, and multiple polls are necessary to get good accuracy. National surveys give the first indication, within a week. State polls (upon which the PEC snapshot and forecast are based) are more accurate when aggregated, but take longer.

In the case of the Republican convention, we will have a hard time knowing what its effects are in isolation.

More here.

9jYQWn4.png
 
Why did the world have to melt down right as we were headed into the general election :(

I have a terrible feeling about all this...

I mean, I like to troll/heckle Poli-GAF sometimes, but right now I just feel sick...

The world isn't falling apart from all these incidents. If the Munich attack turns out to be ISIS-linked, you can consider it part of "Phase 2" of ISIS' war, which is "a bunch of tenuously connected, disorganized desperation attacks in Western countries because they're getting lit the fuck up in their own territory".
 
This is stupid. A free throw isn't made over a series of months with thousands of individual decisions with an external factor (voters) having control over the outcome rather than the candidate.
538 failed to predict who would win the NBA Finals, I wouldn't take their sports analogies too seriously.

heck, any sports analogy when it comes to politics should never be taken seriously

A free throw miss, lol we saw dozens of misses in Game 7 of ths NBA Finals
 

kirblar

Member
I don't get Silvers model.

He has states shaded blue equaling 332 electoral votes, but his counter says 292.7 Electoral votes for Clinton. What am I missing?
He has a time factor built into the model that puts in most of the "why is this not 100/0 based on current polling" factor.
 

Wilsongt

Member
NPR is having a discussion on the gutting of the VRA, and the downward spiral of the ability to vote since the 2000 election.

If Hillary wins, anyway chance Section 5 gets restored?
 

Crayons

Banned
It's like boom, BOOM
I put her in the White House like slam, SLAM
I heard the Republicans screaming like DAMN
I swear that I'm telling you the facts!
Cause that's how we picked Shaq.

efe03192ab00eea620ea78cc8f26fb6836669ea2.gif


tumblr_o4dlz53u0Y1usyqd9o1_500.gif

You missed a perfect Commander in Queef joke, fyi.

I just got laid

I'm no longer a whiny bitch and I'm ready to step up my GAF game
 
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