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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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johnsmith

remember me
Gross
YxslVwu.gif
 

itschris

Member
Will Jordan
‏@williamjordann


Who will forecast the forecasts?

Odds of Clinton victory —
PEC: 80%
NYT: 74%
Pwise: 70%
538: 59%

So, if a forecast that averages poll results is better than looking at individual polls, the best result should be obtained by averaging the forecasts. In other words, Hillary has a 71% chance of winning!

Seriously, though, interesting that 538 is so different from the others.
 
OKAY.

I have been meaning to make a thread about *this*. This is definitely way too touchy feely. Combined with the guy saying she's so pretty, saying things like he would date her if she werent his daughter...
"Yeah, she's really something, and what a beauty, that one. If I weren't happily married and, ya know, her father ..." he said.

It's hardly the first time Trump, the Republican Party's 2016 frontrunner, has gone a shade too far complimenting his daughter.

"If Ivanka weren't my daughter, perhaps I'd be dating her," Trump cracked in a now-infamous 2006 interview with "The View."

Three years earlier, the billionaire real estate mogul described Ivanka as "6 feet tall" with "the best body" during an appearance on Howard Stern's shock jock radio show.
And then there's this...


donald-ivanka-trump-throwback-photo-lead-11.jpg
 

johnsmith

remember me
OKAY.

I have been meaning to make a thread about *this*. This is definitely way too touchy feely. Combined with the guy saying she's so pretty, saying things like he would date her if she werent his daughter...

And then there's this...

Do it. Should be a fun thread.
 
I'm man enough to admit when I was wrong about something. I was wrong peanut butter vodka and RC Cola, I was wrong in thinking that I looked good in board shorts and a man bun. I may have been wrong about Kaine.

I spent some of the evening watching his debate performances. He has a good debating style. He coudl tear apart the person he was debating without sounding like an ass. In fact, he was adorable doing it! His speeches on gun violence are really, really good. He's kinda adorkable.

So, like, I still would have preferred Booker, right? But, seriously, I think this guy is okay.
 
To repost from OT, I've spent the day getting a feel on Kaine. It's been reassuring, as I was initially a little disappointed in his pick. I can't say there is much I've found to dislike about him after day one. He's got a solid record, a great resume and is just so personable in every interview I've watched. This is a nice contrast to mi Abuela, who too often sounds a little calculating and cold when talking.

What's next for Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), politically? (C-SPAN)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPUVo12m2ag

Tim Kaine On Meet The Press (Full Interview) | Meet The Press | NBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1hElMRQfx0

Senator Tim Kaine On Being Vetted For Hillary Clinton's Vice Presidential Pick | MTP Daily | MSNBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8t-EEcjGUU

Senator Responds To Vice President Talk: 'I Like My Job' | Morning Joe | MSNBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkddlHs4v2M

Sen. Tim Kaine Gives Emotional, Powerful Speech on Gun Violence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nczha-aDmN4

Feature Interview - Senator Tim Kaine (2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmjSXGpRSBM
 

Brinbe

Member
One major positive thing to consider with Kaine and Trump.

Winner: People who care about housing discrimination

Before Tim Kaine was a senator or a governor or a lieutenant governor or a mayor, he was a lawyer. A lawyer whose very first case was a pro bono assignment representing an African-American woman who’d been turned away from an apartment. The landlord told her it had already been claimed when she stopped by and said she wanted to look at it. She was suspicious and had a colleague call back later that day, and the landlord said it was still available.

Kaine won the case and began specializing in fair-housing issues as a lawyer.

By a weird coincidence, the very first time Donald Trump was quoted in the New York Times it was because of a Justice Department lawsuit accusing him and his father of discriminating against black renters (the Trumps settled, though without admitting guilt).

Kaine retained his interest in the subject as he entered politics, winning a $100 million jury verdict against Nationwide for discriminatory lending practices as mayor of Richmond. In the Senate, he’s continued to champion fair-housing issues even though it's an issue that doesn't exactly have a ton of appeal to swing voters or well-connected lobbyists.

With Kaine as vice president in the Clinton administration, people worried about housing discrimination will always have an open lane to the president.
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/22/12261070/tim-kaine-vp-winners-losers

The Clinton team def needs to highlight this.
 

These kind of potshot attacks are really crass.

There's plenty of substantive arguments to be made for Trump being a disgusting person, but calling him 'gross' for simply being touchy with his daughter is crossing the line.

None of us here know what their relationship is like and at a base level, there's nothing wrong with what he did.

I hate the guy as much as the next person but not everything Trump does is an atrocity, you know?
 

CCS

Banned
Oh yay, Brainchild's back! (That's not sarcastic btw) :)

Also, I'm on board with the Kaine Train. Once you see him speak he's a lot more attractive. Sort of the opposite of Paul Ryan.
 
So with Kaine essentially living in Telemundo and Univision for the next couple of months, can he drive Trump's support among Hispanics to sub 10%?
 

pigeon

Banned
I agree with brainchild. This incest stuff is pretty crass.

I would like to keep focus on how Trump is a fascist white nationalist.
 
Welcome back, Brainchild.


Here's another pic that I hadn't seen before.

Submitted without comment.

Cn8DFhcVMAQbIne.jpg




And I'm not the only one that thought it was gross, ok?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slat...t_gives_daughter_butt_pat_on_national_tv.html
http://motto.time.com/4418524/ivanka-trump-donald-daughter-touching-reaction/

I apologize if you thought that my comment was specifically directed at you, but I was actually talking about the masses of people in general who make these kinds of comments regarding Trump and his daughter. I just don't think it's a fair assessment of his behavior in this regard without knowing more about their relationship.

Oh yay, Brainchild's back! (That's not sarcastic btw) :)

Also, I'm on board with the Kaine Train. Once you see him speak he's a lot more attractive. Sort of the opposite of Paul Ryan.

Thanks for the warm welcome, guys, but this isn't my first time posting in this thread since I've been back, lol

I guess praising Clinton's VP pick kept me under the radar, haha
 

CCS

Banned
I apologize if you thought that my comment was specifically directed at you, but I was actually talking about the masses of people in general who make these kinds of comments regarding Trump and his daughter. I just don't think it's a fair assessment of his behavior in this regard without knowing more about their relationship.



Thanks for the warm welcome, guys, but this isn't my first time posting in this thread since I've been back, lol

I guess praising Clinton's VP pick kept me under the radar, haha

I've not really been paying attention a lot recently, I apologise :p
 
I've not really been paying attention a lot recently, I apologise :p

No need to apologize. I'm just glad to be back and not have to deal with the Bernie vs Hillary feud anymore.

BTW, I was very satisfied with Bernie's endorsement of Hillary and Hillary's pragmatism throughout this process and I think she'll be an effective president :)
 

mo60

Member
So with Kaine essentially living in Telemundo and Univision for the next couple of months, can he drive Trump's support among Hispanics to sub 10%?

Sub 10% is unlikely at this point unless hispanic turnout increases by an insane amount in this election and almost all of these hispanics go to hilary. He's most likely going to get somewhere between 10% and 20% of the hispanic vote in this election, He will moxt likely end up being the presidential candidate with the lowest share of the hispanic vote since tracking on hispanic voters started.He just needs to beat gerald ford for it to happen.

According to this gerald ford only got 18% of the hispanic vote in 1976.The second lowest is bob dole in 1996 with 21% of the hispanic vote.
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1976/
 
So with Kaine essentially living in Telemundo and Univision for the next couple of months, can he drive Trump's support among Hispanics to sub 10%?

It depends what the rest of 25-30% that vote Republican are like. Hispanics are pretty diverse within themselves and it would be hard to make it sub 10%. I expect a high Hispanic turnout that should benefit Hillary, but it depends if those Hispanic GOP voters are going to vote for Trump.

Kaine might have a better chance of connecting with them then Donald ever could. Donald's outreach is more or less shit and same goes his GOTV operations. Kaine will definitely get some more on the Dem side, but I say it'll be more of Donald being shit than Kaine doing anything. But, there's still potential depending on how the Dems play the game.


I actually think that the entire GOP campaign might have a lower turnout for them both the two campaigns still have low staffers and people in the field, this is a good opportunity for the Dems right now.
 

Diablos

Member
I'm on the Kaine train too. He's a solid pick and it's hard for Republicans to hate him.

Just hope that 160k doesn't come back to bite him in the ass lol
 
Orange Fart twitter dump:

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 1h1 hour ago
Leaked e-mails of DNC show plans to destroy Bernie Sanders. Mock his heritage and much more. On-line from Wikileakes, really vicious. RIGGED

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 1h1 hour ago
Pocahontas wanted V.P. slot so badly but wasn't chosen because she has done nothing in the Senate. Also, Crooked Hillary hates her!

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 2h2 hours ago
Tim Kaine is, and always has been, owned by the banks. Bernie supporters are outraged, was their last choice. Bernie fought for nothing!

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 2h2 hours ago
The Bernie Sanders supporters are furious with the choice of Tim Kaine, who represents the opposite of what Bernie stands for. Philly fight?
 

Diablos

Member
Goofy PoliGAF, sometimes called the Powhatan Indian Tribe, just can't seem to stop saying mean things about me! Sad!

do you get it? Trump doesn't actually research things he just uses google lolol. Probably not 😕
 

Vahagn

Member
Uhhhh. Ivanka pulls back instantly - not as if she's disgusted or not used to that - but as if she's like "dad not here".


In all honesty though, before this campaign she's always come across as a really smart and decent person. Her speech was basically a ringing endorsement of liberalism.
 
The funniest thing is that Warren's attacks should theoretically get less play in the press now that she's no longer a VP candidate (one downside of her not being selected). All Trump has to do is ignore her. Hahahahahahahahaha.
 
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