The Democratic party has largely moved beyond "I don't like abortion but I support the right to it". And as we know, purity matters a lot this year.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
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The Democratic party has largely moved beyond "I don't like abortion but I support the right to it". And as we know, purity matters a lot this year.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Sure, and I get anyone who's displeased with him for that reason, but if we're able to overlook Bernie's gun control stuff (which I know a lot of these people did, and I largely did outside of the context of hypocrisy on compromise) I think a man who has demonstrated total legal support for abortion access is probably fine
If anyone needed more evidence that Politico's "insiders" are low level party hacks, please see below: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/gop-convention-trump-caucus-226000
Seriously, I think we've learned a lot about how maddeningly insane the left can be this election season.... And this beef with Kaine over absolutely nothing is a prime example of that. Are these liberals gonna shit all over Obama/Biden/Clinton and god knows how many Dems too who probably feel the same way about abortion? These purity-first progressives are oftentimes no better than the Ted Cruz's and tea party of the right. And it rubs me the wrong way because there are millions of Catholic/religious Dems who believe the exact same thing. Are you gonna kick all them out too?
And then you have idiots blasting him as some super moderate when they have no idea who/what he's really for or against. Who to believe? His friends/cohorts who all cast him as a good, genuine person/progressive? Or idiots like Michael Moore who shit on everything for no good reason?
Do people know he boycotted the Netanyahu speech and was a early backer of the Iran deal? 100% from Planned Parenthood and a F from the NRA? Is that a super moderate corporate driven Dem? Or just a progressive pragmatist that actually gets things done to shift the state/country leftward in the same vein as Obama/Clinton?
FWIW, I think most rational people have been on board and/or warmed up to the pick after initial trepidation.
Al Giordano also tweeted out some good thoughts about the pick that are well worth the read
https://storify.com/ScottyUrb/al-giordano-welcomes-tim-kaine-vp-pick
And then you have idiots blasting him as some super moderate when they have no idea who/what he's really for or against. Who to believe? His friends/cohorts who all cast him as a good, genuine person/progressive? Or idiots like Michael Moore who shit on everything for no good reason?
Do people know he boycotted the Netanyahu speech and was a early backer of the Iran deal? 100% from Planned Parenthood and a F from the NRA? Is that a super moderate corporate driven Dem? Or just a progressive pragmatist that actually gets things done to shift the state/country leftward in the same vein as Obama/Clinton?
FWIW, I think most rational people have been on board and/or warmed up to the pick after initial trepidation.
Al Giordano also tweeted out some good thoughts about the pick that are well worth the read
https://storify.com/ScottyUrb/al-giordano-welcomes-tim-kaine-vp-pick
Frank the Great
Banned
Man you guys are right, Kaine definitely comes off great in interviews.
This is the most well qualified and experienced ticket in my lifetime. Kaine could definitely be a solid President.
This is the most well qualified and experienced ticket in my lifetime. Kaine could definitely be a solid President.
He's not a very boring speaker either.
This is why I'm still on the "Indifferent about Kaine" train.
The problem was never the man or his politics. You can certainly adore Kaine as a politician while understanding what kind of electorate we're dealing with this go round and how his addition to the ticket is likely to be perceived. Perception has been a big deal this cycle.
I doubt he'll cost Clinton the White House, and Hillary's certainly getting a lot of positive media attention from this pick. But I'm not surprised by a lot of the reaction he's gotten thus far from the Left. Hopefully they won't matter.
Kaine could benefit from the soft bigotry of low expectations. He's much better than he initially seems. Since Hillary is also way better than her caricature, I expect a pretty big convention bounce, followed by a sizable debate bounce.
(Especially since Pence is much worse than he seems, and Trump manages to keep finding new lows.)
(Especially since Pence is much worse than he seems, and Trump manages to keep finding new lows.)
nature boy
Member
Nate's becoming a bit of a mess.
.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I don't know if anyone knows anything anymore. The topline national polls are of course close. Some of the swing state polls are too. Even those are still Clinton leads, though, and none of them are even individually necessary for a Clinton win. And even given all that, the electoral permutations for a Clinton win are enormous. And the demographic crosstabs in both national and swing state polls are absolutely brutal for Trump.
Everything looks like a Clinton win walking away.. except the topline numbers?
Intheflorsh
Banned
Here's what I think of you poligaf
It's the same story from the primaries- those crosstabs ensured Bernie had no chance in hell, the same will be true for Trump.
Yeah, the FBI thing definitely hit her hard and I think most recent polls represent the aftermath of that. Once Bill, Obama and Bernie get going next week stumping for here I believe we will see the gap widen again and (assuming no other major scandals) stay that way from here on it.
Outdoor Miner
Member
Here's what I think of you poligaf
This dude is feeling it! lol
Well I mean I've kind of always understood that Obama was always kind of shackled in what he could say as president. Whenever the man farts half the country would call him a race baiter and divider. Furthermore, I can personally emphasize with wanting to avoid the "Angry Black Man" label. I expect way more truth bombs from him once he leaves office.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Nate's model (and every stats model) basically has to factor in time until the election, for the "who knows what can happen" factor. That's all his (or Princeton's) model is saying. There could be some shift, in that there's time for it.
I mean, Clinton *should* be comfortable even in the swing states, and it's still relatively close. That + Time = Diablosing.
What's so bad about that? It is close. A little less close than Obama / Romney but still close.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Here's what I think of you poligaf
Are we sure this man has pants on?
Trump can never let anything go, he even brings things up that happened months prior.
NihonTiger90
Member
Trump is still going after Jeb, Cruz and Kasich.
I don't think he's going to let it go, lol.
RustyNails
Member
Officerrob
Banned
Man, the Berners who have been kinda quiet recently are out in force today
Yeah the Berners were kinda quieted by Bernie for a while.
Think we're likely to see Kaine bust out some Spanish today...
I'm guessing they hope he rallies further positive support among the Hispanic community in Florida to really put it out of play for Trump. And if they win VA/FL (added with WI/CO, two other swing states she's consistently been polling well in) that's already the election.
Preeeetty smart ppl they have in the campaign.
I'm guessing they hope he rallies further positive support among the Hispanic community in Florida to really put it out of play for Trump. And if they win VA/FL (added with WI/CO, two other swing states she's consistently been polling well in) that's already the election.
Preeeetty smart ppl they have in the campaign.
TheLaughingStock
Member
Those leaks confirmed so much of what they feared. Feel so bad that they failed during the primaries because their heart is in the right place.
They found the smoking gun that follows their narrative, however thin the evidence.
Did they? I read a few articles and it didn't show anything incriminating.
Why is it so hard for those individuals to understand that Sanders only became a democrat for exposure and constantly condemned the "Democratic establishment." Do they expect people who have been working at the DNC for years to not take insult to that and not react?
No they did not confirmed anything people are being silly.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Why are the email leaks "pathetic" in your view? There's nothing of merit in them, to you?
The only thing of merit is that Wikileaks found attacking the DNC more important then redacting people's personal information
Of course the DNC wanted Clinton. That's nothing new. Of course these emails show that. But no conspiracy happened. Of course hard sore Bernie fans and Trump will try to push it. I do think it's amazing that the Trump camp is really pushing for that Bernie vote though. They must need it.
I mean we'll see what comes up in the coming days but if this is all these emails yield, I don't think it does anything
I mean we'll see what comes up in the coming days but if this is all these emails yield, I don't think it does anything
balladofwindfishes
Member
Actually, it confirmed the opposite of what they feared. It confirmed they were just a bunch of conspiracy nuts. But they don't want to read the evidence that way. They want to read it their way.
The leak literally confirms they did absolutely nothing to sway the election toward Hillary. Some random people might have suggested doing so, but they were all shot down.
The thing about that is regardless of what the DNC might have thought about doing, etc that didn't force Bernie to handle the southern states the way he did. That didn't force him to pick the surrogates he did. The didn't make the demographics the way they were. Doesn't change the fact that he only joined the party so he could get attention and didn't care about joining before. A LOT of factors went into Bernie losing the primary and nothing the DNC did or didn't do would have changed that unless they 100% did things in his favor and were 100% anti Hillary and worked completely against her and even then it might not have worked out.
Yes, he specifically culled his leaks to only pertinent files around the nature of the survielence program
They were obtained by the Russian government and given to one of their shill organizations that constantly undermines American interests (even if you support them you can't deny the fact that leaking government information undermines American security and interests) and in this case, whose purpose is to damage the Democratic National Convention next week. This is all a play by putin to help elect orange turd. I am well aware of the war crimes committed by the US military abroad, of the drone strike that sadly kill innocents and those things are reprehensible but that is not because of fucking wikileaks but because of common sense. Wikileaks is a pro right wing, Russian shill organization that serves no purpose but to undermine the west. What positive changes have they brought to the west? When was the last time that they revealed Russian crimes?
I don't know if giving many interviews on Telemundo or Univision would be enough to get Trump's latino support below 10% (it's not like every latino watches those channels, mostly just old people and those whose primary language is Spanish) but him being on those channels could increase turnout among viewers.
nature boy
Member
I don't know what Nate considers "close", but polls are just one part of the story.
Clinton has a far superior organization, better analytics, better surrogates to split the effort and energize and convince undecideds and arguably favorable media. Not to mention how inept Trump is at staying discipline and on message.
For every CT, where one suspicious poll says "dead heat", there's a Georgia/North Carolina.
It's a relatively close race due to how divided the country is and how disliked both candidates are. I'm not convinced Trump can go to extra mile and gain additional voters beyond those given to him almost by default by being the nominee. Clinton has a phenomenal GE campaign, so unless she bombs big time in the debate(s), I don't see how she loses.
Come Election Day, Clinton's organization will put her over relatively easily.
IMO of course.
Yeah, who would've though that the DNC would want an actual Democratic vs. someone who's been a Democratic for a year in order to get media attention to his candidacy.
Yep and Bernie can't change their minds. It's more about going against the DNC and Clinton at this point. Just wonder how many would jump to Trump or more likely Johnson/Stein will gain their support.
Trump could have barfed on stage for 75 minutes and Politico would have written a piece on how he nailed it, according to their insiders. Meanwhile Hillary will cough once in her speech and they'll say she blew it.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Nate was burned really badly in the GOP primaries, he's probably just extra cautious this time.
Another screw up like that could cost him his site. So he wants to avoid it.
Another screw up like that could cost him his site. So he wants to avoid it.
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