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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Actually, why DID 538 shift a few states over to Trump? There's no new polling in Florida, from what I can tell. Are they just adjusting weights over time or something?
 
He is so much better here than he was when they stumped together two weeks ago.

"Thank you for choosing us." That was a pretty powerful moment.

Right?

My guess is he wasn't like, as amped because he didn't think he was going to get picked at that time. Seems totally different here.
 

Diablos

Member
Kaine is killing it. Wow.

I wish he was in the primary. Would have made it a lot more interesting and killed the never ending Bernie dynamic.
 

Bowdz

Member
KAINE TRAINS COMIN BABY! WOO WOO! WOO WOO!

latest
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Kaine is killing it. Wow.

I wish he was in the primary. Would have made it a lot more interesting and killed the never ending Bernie dynamic.

He knew he was the front runner for VP if Hillary won.

He almost got picked over Biden for Obama in 08. He was choice #2
 

Paskil

Member
I'm pretty sad I'm missing this. I was playing Just Cause 3 until a few minutes ago. Anyone know what time it ends so I can find it and watch it then? Can go get some coffee in the mean time.
 

CCS

Banned
He needs to spend the next few months basically repeating these sections on immigration and gun control.

They. Are. Perfect.
 
Actually, why DID 538 shift a few states over to Trump? There's no new polling in Florida, from what I can tell. Are they just adjusting weights over time or something?

The last Ohio poll was over a week ago (Hillary +4), yet they flipped Ohio today
 
Sup, Retro.

Well hopefully my last ban will remain as my last ban.

I've come to the conclusion that I'll just have to censor/filter myself to some degree on this forum. I'm not happy about it, but that's the way it is.

Oh, and btw, you're wrong about Mario Kart 8 :p

wait...that MK8 thread was made by him?

holy shit worse taste than Adam alert
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The last Ohio poll was over a week ago (Hillary +4), yet they flipped Ohio today

Entirely due to national polls, which is weird because "Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression."

I don't think I understand. So because the national polls are getting closer, they adjust the state polls closer?
 

Iolo

Member
I like Kaine now.

The liveblogging Times reporters are actually complaining that he is too casual, unpresidential, and about his fashion choices. Wow.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I don't think I understand. So because the national polls are getting closer, they adjust the state polls closer?

Probably. They might be using the assumption that a tightening nationally would be reflected locally if there were any new state polls.
 
I met a family who's 6 year old was killed in Sandy Hook at a restaurant a while back. I'm reliving that right now.

Meeting the people who were involved in it is a kick in the stomach. I felt that look on Kaine's face.
 

Maledict

Member
What I want to know is why is it such a surprise to us all that Kaine appears to be *far*, *far*, stronger as a VP candidate than we were dreading beforehand? He was descibred as vanilla, white bread, boring, safe - which he is. But he's clearly a hell of a lot better as a communicator than people were thinking, and has a really good track record in numerous areas.

Why were we worried about this? Right now he's looking like a really, really strong pick?
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
538 looks at national polls and adjusts for the states float from the national average if there aren't recent polls in a state.

Basically, there isn't a ton of good polling right now at the state level over the last few weeks.
 

diaspora

Member
What I want to know is why is it such a surprise to us all that Kaine appears to be *far*, *far*, stronger as a VP candidate than we were dreading beforehand? He was descibred as vanilla, white bread, boring, safe - which he is. But he's clearly a hell of a lot better as a communicator than people were thinking, and has a really good track record in numerous areas.

Why were we worried about this? Right now he's looking like a really, really strong pick?

People were worried, then he opened his mouth and started dragging donny-boy.
 

Holmes

Member
I'm pretty sad I'm missing this. I was playing Just Cause 3 until a few minutes ago. Anyone know what time it ends so I can find it and watch it then? Can go get some coffee in the mean time.
Seems like it's wrapping up. It's really good!
 

royalan

Member
I like Kaine now.

The liveblogging Times reporters are actually complaining that he is too casual, unpresidential, and about his fashion choices. Wow.

It's ridiculously dumb.

Maggie HabermanReporter
1:57 PM ET
Invalid Date
We all knocked Trump for speaking too long and too self-interestedly last weekend at the Pence rollout. This speech by Kaine is too long.

WE COMPLAINED BECAUSE WE WERE SUPPOSED TO BE HEARING FROM PENCE.
 

CCS

Banned
Just thinking about Kaine spending the new few months DRAGGING Trump and Pence

YAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
 
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