RastaMentality
Banned
The position should've never been announced in the PR statement but eh. I'm sick of hearing about her and I wish they'd ship her out of the state.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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I have little faith in Bernie's supporters after seeing state connection shitshows so my bar for this DNC is very low.
If Bernie can corral them so they don't boo at everything, I'll consider him and it a success
My expectations are that low
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Hillary had one of the worst weeks of the campaign right before the RNC, this shouldn't be surprising. That being said someone in the other thread pointed out the 18-34 demo is understated in the poll.
She's an incredibly flawed candidate who continually makes baffling unforced errors. Given that I can't find a likely path to 270 for Trump I'm not worried, but I'm starting to think Kasich or Rubio would have beaten her.
She's an incredibly flawed candidate who continually makes baffling unforced errors. Given that I can't find a likely path to 270 for Trump I'm not worried, but I'm starting to think Kasich or Rubio would have beaten her.
Because she's an egotist who didn't want to step down? Does anyone even know how the party can even replace the DNC chair? Maybe there is some time element involved and she refused to get out before the end of her term or some such. None of us know her state of mind beyond reports being DWS being reluctant to leave. Because she's arrogant and self centered.
Also, holy shit at all of the Diablosing. Calm the fuck down people. People get convention bumps. News at 11.
Who cares if she has an honorary position in her campaign? Like it literally doesn't matter.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Things should calm down after his speech tonight. I have high hopes for Bernie helping to calm stuff down.
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p20-578.pdf
I didn't know this, but of people age 25 and up, only 46% of non-hispanic whites have Associates or more and only 36% with bachelors or more.
My math might be off from the charts but thats potentially more than 70 million people.
If you can get 60% of 70 milliam, which is really hard - tha'd be 42 million.
I'm not sure what the numbers are individually, in the swing states like PA, OH, or FL.
I didn't know this, but of people age 25 and up, only 46% of non-hispanic whites have Associates or more and only 36% with bachelors or more.
My math might be off from the charts but thats potentially more than 70 million people.
If you can get 60% of 70 milliam, which is really hard - tha'd be 42 million.
I'm not sure what the numbers are individually, in the swing states like PA, OH, or FL.
nature boy
Member
Don't think Bernie is going to calm the storm, even if in the next couple of hours someone up in the food chain yanks DWS from the convention. The protests gained legitimacy, why should they stop?
This is such a stupid situation and a stupid mistake.
Unfortunately, I think regardless of Sanders and his throwing of support behind Clinton, you'll always have a subset of a few overzealous supporters that'll boo and cause a ruckus anyway. Enough to draw media attention and paint the inaccurate picture of disarray and division.
I just think it's the side-effect of going 2nd and following up another disaster-ridden convention. Believe me, the cable newsmedia is DYING for another Cruz-like moment to shine a light upon.
I just think it's the side-effect of going 2nd and following up another disaster-ridden convention. Believe me, the cable newsmedia is DYING for another Cruz-like moment to shine a light upon.
Not really hard. Impossible.
You have to consider the number lower for registered voters, then even lower for likely voters before you can even take a swag at a number. People are saying 60% of actual voters, not actual people. The former is much MUCH less
... And I have no faith in anything Sanders says swaying his more... ardent... Supporters
nature boy
Member
538 is really pathetic. Expected better from them.
Bernie should be the first one to speak then to set the tone. Let his supporters fully understand what is at stake and how they should be behaving and how he wants them to act if they're going to do anything in his name, directly and to their faces. In addition someone needs to lock DWS in a room or elevator if she won't use a damn bit of common sense and just stay hidden.
I do not put it past them to boo Michele Obama or Warren.
Ugh this whole things is going to be a train wreak I just know it. The headlines are going to be insane after this is done.
I do not put it past them to boo Michele Obama or Warren.
Ugh this whole things is going to be a train wreak I just know it. The headlines are going to be insane after this is done.
Black Republican
Member
Why/what did they do?
And all the republicans have been loving having a chance to talk about how the democrats aren't unified and that Trump now has a chance.
RastaMentality
Banned
Booing Michelle Obama would literally look bad to everyone. It'll never happen.
If they boo Michelle then these people have lost all my respect and will honestly do their little protest NO favors if they do that. Let Sanders have his prime time slot. His speech is more for people watching anyway
I don't think they care though. That's the impression I've gotten.
nature boy
Member
I mean... I'm not saying they're flawless, but they're just plugging in numbers to their model.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Hillary hasn't really had a "good" week since her Trump-ethering speech after wrapping up the primaries. In fact that was her only really good week all season.
Kasich and Rubio would be subject to the rules of rational discourse. If Hillary had made those NATO comments her campaign would be DEAD, immediately, and rightfully so. Same goes for Kasich and Rubio.
Trump just gets "wow that's pretty wacky!" and keeps trucking along.
nature boy
Member
Let's be honest. From DWS's perspective, you spent five years helming the DNC doing your best to get things rolling in a hostile political environment. Regardless of how others see you, you personally think you put a lot of time and sweat into this role, to the best of your ability.
And now a bunch of other people want to throw you under the bus because you are 'bad optics'. Your allies have their own interests and would like to avoid bad optics.
From one woman to another in politics, is it so strange the idea that Hillary might be feeling sorry enough for DWS to give her a titled position of no real value just to allow DWS to maintain some dignity?
That's why I don't think it's so strange for them to offer DWS a non-position. Because if what you ask for is kindness, then the first step after preaching it is to practice it. But all the same it will be portrayed as shady or whatever anyway, because the reality of politics is cutthroat. If Hillary and her campaign decide she can bear it, then so she will. That's nothing new either.
I'm not saying it's the right decision. Just that I don't think it's all that hard to understand.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Black Republican
Member
You'll be fine. If you're worried donate what you can. Go out and campaign for her. let people know about early voting if possible. On election day remind everyone to go out and vote and what the stakes are. Hell start letting them know now.
If people can't make it to vote give them a ride to their polling place.
balladofwindfishes
Member
So how are the betting markets doing?
Got the Shakes
Member
From the 538 Twitter account:
"If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton's still favored long-term"
https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/757575965681786880
"If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton's still favored long-term"
https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/757575965681786880
That's a decision you would make when you are creating a model months before, not post convention when the numbers scare you. They aren't doing anything wrong now, and their model methodology has been open since the beginning.
Exactly right. Posted similar thoughts in the OT thread. ]Similar to Obama's long-held refrain, don't boo, vote; the best thing to do in this situation is to turn worry into action. Do the best to your ability but don't sit on the sidelines if you foresee disaster in the distance. Just don't be lazy.
lyrick
Member
Where did the Trump 57.5% model come from?
Their site shows (CK) 53.7 to (TP) 46.2
Edit: Found it, That's their 'Now Cast'
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Second Question regarding FL polls, why are all their adjustments in favor of Trump?
Because this is politics. Particularly, old politics. You set up your pal congresswoman with a nice parachute and try and move on. But like others have said, this is the internet era where that makes a good headline. Everything about this and their handling of DWS is tone deaf to what's going on, maybe to keep her quiet or something? Maybe she's an unreasonable person trying to hold onto anything she can? Not sure.
But Obama needs to come in and lay the law down.
nature boy
Member
Yup. I understand the worry, and I know there isn't much anyone can do right now, but put your worry in action like you said. NO election is decided right now.
The convention isn't over yet and many are already acting like the Dems have lost. I'm sure even after the speeches tonight some people will start to calm down.
Yeah, I'm confused. And heartened. They need to update their twitters. There's a good chance that this is Trump's high-water mark, and the best he does is an approximate tie?
Keep in mind: Obama's GOTV operation had him outperform the polls in most swing states. And unlike last time, Trump doesn't even have an Operation ORCA to counter.
How did you forget?
Where did the Trump 57.5% model come from?
Their site shows (CK) 53.7 to (TP) 46.2
Edit: Found it, That's their 'Now Cast'
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Second Question regarding FL polls, why are all their adjustments in favor of Trump?
I think I remember it's because of what they view as built in state leanings. They don't take polls and make a model they take polls, make adjustments and make models
Self deception
cartoon_soldier
Member
That's what's happening to everyone thinking Clinton is going to win! She will drown in a sea of her stupidity with DWS on the boat!
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