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[NYCmetsfan]

This Russian info opp is really depressing how the GOP is cheering on having Putin cheerlead them

They'll give up democracy and fair elections because it helps them accrue power. Shameful.

I'm also disappointed in the media for breathlessly reporting them. But Putin knows how our media works. We need to better shore up our digital footprint. And people need to stop clicking links in email!

I do worry a bit about foundation or clinton email server info leaking but I doubt anything is that serious. Just hurts Hillary as being "just as dangerous as Trump" especially if they leak it close.

I still think this isnt gonna hurt with Latinos or AA or Asians but it might depress the vote.

Still think she's gonna win cause polling in the us is good ans she's winning that

 

[thebloo]

One way to win uneducated voters may be to stop calling them "uneducated". Seriously, as someone that has not completed college, it's even a bit offensive.

 

[kess]

I find it intensely silly that the Greens are pushing against Clinton so strongly. If there is anything more badly damaged under a Trump presidency, it would be environmental policy. Subsidies would disappear, more coal, less government research funding etc etc. A full blown climate change denier, not even a dog whistler, in the White House.

Also if Trump wins, say goodbye to anything Obama can't veto. These same progressives will watch everything they fought for get overturned. Still, that's no consolation. It's just irony.

Edit: Either I've gone mad or the world has gone mad.

I like how chanting for the imprisonment of your opponent has become a thing. Fitting that those who don't know how elections work are equally clueless on the concept of due process.

Don't skip jury duty, brehs

 

[balladofwindfishes]

LOL of all the speeches. I'm more worried about what Bill is going to say.

Now that his attention isn't focused on annoying Bernie supporters, hopefully his gun is pointed in the right direction.

 

[Paskil]

Depending on the shape of this place over the next few days, I might just avoid NeoGAF. This is where I do most of my political posting and the Diablosing might jus get too obnoxious.

 

[PBY]

One way to win uneducated voters may be to stop calling them "uneducated". Seriously, as someone that has not completed college, it's even a bit offensive.

"I love the poorly educated!!!!"

 

[pigeon]

One way to win uneducated voters may be to stop calling them "uneducated". Seriously, as someone that has not completed college, it's even a bit offensive.

I am a college dropout but somehow I managed to avoid believing that America sucks.

Also key: Whites agree with Trump's depiction of USA by 52-41. College educated whites reject it, 53-39:

 

[pigeon]

See Sean T at RCPs timeline right now, great stuff and exactly how I feel.

I see that you're Diablosing so hard you forgot how to quote things. Sad.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Depending on the shape of this place over the next few days, I might just avoid NeoGAF. This is where I do most of my political posting and the Diablosing might jus get too obnoxious.

I'm not even touching r/politics this week, because I know it'll be stupid and no discussion will actually happen because any hint of possibly liking Hillary will end up getting completely crushed.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

"I love the poorly educated!!!!"

Yeah. We shouldn't use "uneducated" either but... I don't think it's affecting the polling.

 

[Dierce]

One thing that I don't understand is why Clinton doesn't repudiate the accusations thrown at her. I remember when she was Secretary of State and had a nearly 70% approval rating but then the republicans launched a negative blitz against her due to the embassy attack which led to the email debacle. I don't remember her having a concentrated effort in defending herself against often times conspiratory accusations which could easily be countered as fringe bullshit. Hopefully she can quickly bring people in that can rapidly respond to new accusations.

 

[Incognito]

not looking good for hilldawg , maybe she eeks out win. but she'll get clobbered in 2020 and dems once again will be redistricteded out of power for another 10 years. sad.

 

[pigeon]

Also:

Friendly reminder: Trump's ↑ polls may be change in non-response (Rs excited, ↑ respond), not change in opinion. See https://t.co/P8eZWhk3UC

 

[Hopfrog]

The prevalence of the "lock her up" chants on both sides illustrates that fascistic tendencies can cross the aisle quite easily. Nothing fascists like more than locking up their political opponents and ignoring due process.

 

[B-Dubs]

Also:

Agreed. Let's se what polling looks like after the all-stars take the field before panicking.

 

[Boke1879]

not looking good for hilldawg , maybe she eeks out win. but she'll get clobbered in 2020 and dems once again will be redistricteded out of power for another 10 years. sad.

Ok Donald

 

[HylianTom]

Also:

You could see it in the response rate for CNN-ORC between their polls of this week and last week. Last week, Dems had an edge in their sample. This week, the sample swung over to the GOP.

 

[Suikoguy]

You could see it in the response rate for CNN-ORC between their polls of this week and last week. Last week, Dems had an edge in their sample. This week, the sample swung over to the GOP.

Are there no ways to try to control for that?

 

[Y2Kev]

What time does this begin in earnest?

 

[Box of Kittens]

I find it intensely silly that the Greens are pushing against Clinton so strongly. If there is anything more badly damaged under a Trump presidency, it would be environmental policy. Subsidies would disappear, more coal, less government research funding etc etc. A full blown climate change denier, not even a dog whistler, in the White House.

Also if Trump wins, say goodbye to anything Obama can't veto. These same progressives will watch everything they fought for get overturned. Still, that's no consolation. It's just irony.

Edit: Either I've gone mad or the world has gone mad.

The Green Party pushed HARD against Al Gore, arguably he most environmentalist major party nominee for president, by running with the narrative that he was no different from George W. Bush. Their primary goal is the federal funding that would come with getting 5% of the vote, not policy.

 

[Emarv]

See Sean T at RCPs timeline right now, great stuff and exactly how I feel.

I'll post it for you.

OK, look. I get that this is a convention bounce, and convention bounces can be transitory. I would not be at all surprised if HRC wins. 1/

We really should check back in September, and see who is leading then, and by how much. 2/

To use a morbid analogy I'm fond of, if I got into a car wreck, woke from a coma in December, and HRC won by 8, I wouldn't be shocked. 3/

My point is more the drum I've been beating since June. People are *looking* for reasons Trump won't win. Understandable. 4/

But it also distorts our analysis. For example, it wasn't inevitable Trump would get a bounce (Kerry '04, Romney '12). 5/

And it isn't inevitable that Clinton will get a bounce that cancels out Trump's (see Bush '92), though it is certainly possible. 6/

Regardless, the only real remaining argument as to why Trump just couldn't win was that he had a polling ceiling of 40% or so. 7/

That's pretty much gone.You don't have to believe Trump *will* win,but at this point if you don't think he *can*, you're in deep denial. 8/8

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/757583776398602240?lang=en

 

[Aaron Strife]

Omg everything will be fine. The CNN poll is the only one to show a meaningful convention bounce and even then, it's a convention bounce. Sarah Palin gave McCain a bounce.

Trump's path to victory remains incredibly narrow. Some shenanigans aside, Dems are about to bring down the house this week. Kaine is turning out to be a great pick and will likely lock down Hispanic voters (who are typically undercounted in polling anyway). And Trump still doesn't have a campaign, GOP turnout is going to suck outside of the true believers.

She's got this.

To Sean's point above - I never believed Trump can't win. I just think his odds are rather long.

 

[gcubed]

Driving to work on Philly past the dnc good lord police presence on highways

 

[Slacker]

not looking good for hilldawg , maybe she eeks out win. but she'll get clobbered in 2020 and dems once again will be redistricteded out of power for another 10 years. sad.

Hillary isn't a great campaigner but she'll be a good president. I'm not worried about her chances in 2020. And I also don't trust the Republicans to learn any lessons from this election cycle so I'm not worried about who they'll put up either.

This is a rough news cycle. Trump had a few of those last week and they're already all but forgotten. Hillary will move on from this and win in November. It won't be a landslide, because a landslide isn't possible in US politics any longer, but it'll be a win. I still think we'll have Clinton for the next 8 years followed by Kaine for the 8 after that.

 

[Grief.exe]

Driving to work on Philly past the dnc good lord police presence on highways

Protestors have been completely blocking highway traffic recently.

 

[RustyNails]

The bump was unexpected but its real. This is not garbage polling. Havent looked at crosstabs (black mamba and pigeon, do yer jobs) but methinks lots of "independents" are suddenly in favor of electing a fascist. Hillary will get a similar bump too, dont worry. Yea the slow wikileaks dump will rain piss on her parade a bit but you cannot deny the DNC starpower.

What really needs to happen for sure is Bernie going all out for Hillary. His performance bas been really disappointing. But he got his pound of flesh now, so he should not just be on board, he should be leading the cavalry. Go Bernie you crazy socialist motherfucker you. Turn the convention into church. Rip donald a new bunghole.

 

[Emarv]

Does Debbie have good poll numbers in her district? That would make things make way more sense, if so.

 

[nature boy]

Omg everything will be fine. The CNN poll is the only one to show a meaningful convention bounce and even then, it's a convention bounce. Sarah Palin gave McCain a bounce.

Morning Consult also shows a bounce. But yes it's a convention bounce and no reason to panic.

 

[ampere]

All you guys need to know to that this is just a side show is to think back to the general emotional states you had for the last week:

- "OMG, Warren's going to be in Orlando with Hillary! She's the Veep and we've got this!"
- "Fuck, Warren wont be the pick. Progressives will stay home. We're fucked."
- "Holy shit, the RNC was a disaster! This is in the bag!"
- "Fuck, did you see the CNN poll of people approving Trump's speech? We're fucked."
- "OMG, Tim Kaine killed it! Future President right there! He's the perfect pick to help us win!"
- "Fuck, this Wikileaks story is going to cost us the election. We're fucked."

Meanwhile, the average person probably went to work and watched golf or some shit over the weekend. This is all noise. It's all about demographics and turnout. Calm down.

The average person only heard about the plagiarism thing because that's all the news deemed important

 

[Box of Kittens]

Depending on the shape of this place over the next few days, I might just avoid NeoGAF. This is where I do most of my political posting and the Diablosing might jus get too obnoxious.

I feel like the diablosing is starting to override the rational part of my brain. Like I can understand why the polls look like they do now (I even predicted they would in advance) but then I see post after post of panic and I find my anxiety about this election is going up. I may need to take a break for a few days.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Are there no ways to try to control for that?

No reason to, it's a snapshot. If Rs are more excited right now, you can't just guess they'll mellow out.

 

[Geg]

The bump was unexpected but its real. This is not garbage polling. Havent looked at crosstabs (black mamba and pigeon, do yer jobs) but methinks lots of "independents" are suddenly in favor of electing a fascist.

The poll apparently didn't include any (or many) 18-34 year olds ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[PBY]

The poll apparently didn't include any (or many) 18-34 year olds ¯_(&#12484_/¯

Not trusting the polls is a mistake. These polls are all going to have issues, the aggregates are a good guide.

And the past 2 months have been bad.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I feel like the diablosing is starting to override the rational part of my brain. Like I can understand why the polls look like they do now (I even predicted they would in advance) but then I see post after post of panic and I find my anxiety about this election is going up. I may need to take a break for a few days.

The spread right now is equivalent to where Obama and Romney were.

 

[Geg]

I feel like the diablosing is starting to override the rational part of my brain. Like I can understand why the polls look like they do now (I even predicted they would in advance) but then I see post after post of panic and I find my anxiety about this election is going up. I may need to take a break for a few days.

The only thing really making me nervous is all the wikileaks/Russian hack stuff. That's the one big unknown factor looming over everything.

Well also the bernie or busters doing something stupid at the convnetion.

 

[Suikoguy]

No reason to, it's a snapshot. If Rs are more excited right now, you can't just guess they'll mellow out.

Oh, I see why it would be counterproductive.

 

[DrMungo]

Not trusting the polls is a mistake. These polls are all going to have issues, the aggregates are a good guide.

And the past 2 months have been bad.

I think thats partially why 538 and Nate Silver are diabolosing like crazy - they ignored the polls in Trumps run in the GOP

 

[jbug617]

I feel like the diablosing is starting to override the rational part of my brain. Like I can understand why the polls look like they do now (I even predicted they would in advance) but then I see post after post of panic and I find my anxiety about this election is going up. I may need to take a break for a few days.

It's the Bernie people making everyone nervous. If we can guarantee that they behave I think more people would be more positive.

 

[Grief.exe]

I feel like the diablosing is starting to override the rational part of my brain. Like I can understand why the polls look like they do now (I even predicted they would in advance) but then I see post after post of panic and I find my anxiety about this election is going up. I may need to take a break for a few days.

The only thing really making me nervous is all the wikileaks/Russian hack stuff. That's the one big unknown factor looming over everything.

Well also the bernie or busters doing something stupid at the convnetion.

I think I need to take a break too after all of this negativity.
Watching the RNC all last week also took its toll on me to a degree.

 

[Y2Kev]

Not trusting the polls is a mistake. These polls are all going to have issues, the aggregates are a good guide.

And the past 2 months have been bad.

Overdoing it doesn't help anyone. If you can't hack it, take a break. Hillary was up like 8 points at the end of June. The race has natural inflections as bases consolidate and responses change.

 

[Box of Kittens]

The spread right now is equivalent to where Obama and Romney were.

Sure, but we're talking rational arguments vs. hearing constant panic. I understand the context of these numbers, but I'm still finding reading about the election on GAF/the internet to be having an unhealthy effect.

 

[nature boy]

Not trusting the polls is a mistake. These polls are all going to have issues, the aggregates are a good guide.

And the past 2 months have been bad.

You mean past week.

 

[PBY]

Overdoing it doesn't help anyone. If you can't hack it, take a break. Hillary was up like 8 points at the end of June. The race has natural inflections as bases consolidate and responses change.

Agreed.

I'm honestly not worried about this 6ish point convention bump. The prior 2 month surge worries me more.

I'm fineish for now, hoping for a boring convention. Will start to really diablos if swing state polling starts to turn. My main worry was that this election was supposedly a slam dunk - and its clearly not that.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Sure, but we're talking rational arguments vs. hearing constant panic. I understand the context of these numbers, but I'm still finding reading about the election on GAF/the internet to be having an unhealthy effect.

The panicking in this thread is annoooooooooooyingggg. I mean, I'm still trying to mourn for my Debbie.

 

[Y2Kev]

Agreed.

I'm honestly not worried about this 6ish point convention bump. The prior 2 month surge worries me more.

I'm fineish for now, hoping for a boring convention. Will start to really diablos if swing state polling starts to turn.

Then stop saying two month surge for one. you have already started diablosing so you don't get to say you've reserved that.

 

[BotoxAgent]

The panicking in this thread is annoooooooooooyingggg. I mean, I'm still trying to mourn for my Debbie.

oh god that avatar hurts my eyes

 

[Y2Kev]

I proclaim kristoffer honorary chairman of poligaf

 

[Suikoguy]

I proclaim kristoffer honorary chairman of poligaf

Uh oh, does that mean we need to change our avatar every week?!?

 

[HylianTom]

Clinton-Kaine to do bus tour through PA. Clinton holding joint rally with Biden in Scranton. Ad buy in Philly began last week.

 

[pigeon]

I proclaim kristoffer honorary chairman of poligaf

Fraud

Lock kev up