theprodigy
Member
what? Trump is not up 5 right now, regardless of whether a single poll says that
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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what? Trump is not up 5 right now, regardless of whether a single poll says that
balladofwindfishes
Member
My fuzzy math aggregate based on nothing but like 5 polls I've seen, I'd guess it was a 2-3 point boost.
Many more polls were showing +1 or +2 than were showing +5.
gutter_trash
Banned
his clumsy NATO comments also raises eyebrows IMO on Trump's true patriotism.. for Russia
lyrick
Member
From a purely political perspective, how does advertising against our NATO allies and using talking points showing a weak EU help America?
Is it true what I read last week that actually acting on the stuff he said about NATO would be seen as treason?
Would the Republicans in congress actually act against him in that case?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The support of white evangelicals for Trump is honestly legendary though.
He's been condemned by religious congressional leaders (Cruz, Lee), condemned by religious websites, his goal is persecution of Latino and black and Muslim Americans (who are more religious than non-evangelical white people on average), he's not religious at all and is somewhat moderate when it comes to LGBT issues and has probably paid for abortions for women... And yet they're going 90% for Trump.
I wish Hillary would start supporting legal weed and other socially liberal positions now that it's clear that white evangelicals will never, ever, ever support a Democrat woman.
He's been condemned by religious congressional leaders (Cruz, Lee), condemned by religious websites, his goal is persecution of Latino and black and Muslim Americans (who are more religious than non-evangelical white people on average), he's not religious at all and is somewhat moderate when it comes to LGBT issues and has probably paid for abortions for women... And yet they're going 90% for Trump.
I wish Hillary would start supporting legal weed and other socially liberal positions now that it's clear that white evangelicals will never, ever, ever support a Democrat woman.
I remember we looked at the past 50-75 year trends in the winter and the 100 and 30 day pre-convention markers and general slope were the best indicators for the final outcome bar 1-2 exceptions. I wonder how those hold up now that we are at convention time?
Nothing.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Yep.
GutsOfThor
Member
I'm right there with you. I'm sick of it already. I've been looking forward to enjoying the summer months but really all I've been doing is worrying about this shit. Almost tempted to just shut all of it out until Nov. 8th.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Wikileaks doxxed millions of women in Turkey for no reason probably because Assange is a rapist who doesn't care about people:
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/757599604221288448
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/757599604221288448
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
RustyNails
Member
8 ball time.
Manafort coordinated the hack with Russian intelligence. Trump has all the oppo dump. This is watergate 2.0. FBI is always slow with cybersecurity shit but they will find Manafort's paws all over this and he will resign. Trump feigns ignorance and survives, but the election is all but over by then.
EDIT!!!
Manafort coordinated the hack with Russian intelligence. Trump has all the oppo dump. This is watergate 2.0. FBI is always slow with cybersecurity shit but they will find Manafort's paws all over this and he will resign. Trump feigns ignorance and survives, but the election is all but over by then.
EDIT!!!
hipsterpants
Member
I lurk this thread a lot and you guys are crazy lol. Right now everyone is FREAKING OUT but in less than twelve hours you'll probably all feel like HRC is unstoppable with likely 3~ amazing speeches in a row.
balladofwindfishes
Member
That'd be fun to watch unfold.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
from yahoo.
I still see nothing about clintons personal emails which is the only thing I think can actually change anything.
and the "next leak will get her indicted" was before this leak.
minor effort
Banned
As much as I want to shut it out, I should probably use this as motivation to be more active in my support of Clinton.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusiv...russians-and-wider-penetration-154121061.html
russia has got his back though
Well shit. Ain't that timing interesting.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Donald Trump stars in: The Mandarine Candidate.
(The Manchurian Candidate was a better movie but Donald will claim his broke world records. Some will even call it... the best movie.)
nature boy
Member
Just more embarrassment and going off-message until November.
And a complete reboot of the DNC.
some, but if we have learned anything in the past few months, is that a good portion of liberal voters love to ballwash russia
I wonder if it was suppose to be another part of the coup, or did it happen in response to help/hurt Erdogan?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Snowden is saying the NSA pretty much knows if the Russians did it or not. Obama can reveal. Break open story.
I imagine they will in august
edit: snowden is pretty much arguing the NSA start calling out these attacks as a kind of deterrent. Weird he's implying it has positive uses!
I imagine they will in august
edit: snowden is pretty much arguing the NSA start calling out these attacks as a kind of deterrent. Weird he's implying it has positive uses!
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Manafort is the easy target to get removed. Thing is Trump will lie to defend himself even when the truth is more convenient.
If it was Russia they're gonna make sure to have as much evidence as humanly possible given how this would not only impact international relations but the election.
Probably going to give them a talking to so they behave.
thestopsign
Member
He will be telling them to take a chill pill.
You know, every time I feel myself spiraling, I remember your words and it gets me through the day. So... thank you!
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Yup. Don't want to jump the gun but no doubt they don't want elections tampered with.
Yeah but people believe the CIA completely lied as an organization to protect Hillary, I don't even think they would blink if President Obama said anything.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
A week ago I felt like a crazy conspiracy person when I said I thought there was something going on with Russia stealing the opposition research on Trump, Manafort and Trump's NATO comments... This is the wierdest election ever.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump's people doing WaterGate 2 would probably be the only thing too similar between Trump and Nixon.
I'm just picturing the sort of shitstorm that revelation would set off and I'm not sure we'll have seen anything like it in modern times. Obama would basically be saying a foreign power was trying to influence our election, from there any journalist (not matter how dumb) would be able to tie Russia's actions to Trump through Manafort. The shitstorm would basically be unprecedented in American politics.
Considering another nation would be involved this would be bigger than Watergate.
I'm not sure this is going to happen, but it's frightening to think about.
Gonna give them that verbal smackdown and tell them to chill and look at the bigger picture.
While you're right and none of this would stick to Trump it's just something the left can use to question his decision making. IF Manafort is tied to this.
Lol no problem. As I've gotten older I've learned to not stress too much about things I have NO control over. What's going to happen is going to happen. Lets focus on what we can control. We need to get out and vote in November.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Its not about these people. Its about not depressing the vote, and for the president to stand against electoral interference
https://twitter.com/FranklinFoer
is good for the hacking
This leak is gonna unleash reporters. Expect more stuff to come out.
Okay, I'm at a computer now.
1. It is fine to be afraid. You should be afraid. Let that fear propel you into action.
2. DWS is basically a lousy DNC chair and always has been. That said, she does not matter, and this thread is kind of gross in its fridging of her.
3. If this thread is going to freak out about literally every media beat it is going to be intolerable. The most important media beat is the one that plays overnight. That will be after Bernie and after Warren. Worry at that one.
4. Ultimately the Busters have extremely limited relevance in a world where Bernie Sanders is throwing his weight behind Hillary.
5. Trump did not do better with almost any demographic in recent polls. He did better with exactly one -- non-college-educated white people. He even lost ground among college-educated whites. Then why is he leading? Because the poll contains more of them now.
6. Changes in poll demographics modelling do not correspond to changes in national demographics. There are not more non-college educated white people than there used to be. The only major reason to be concerned is if you think that Trump is going to turn out huge numbers of non-college whites that don't currently vote, and that Hillary will not similarly run up turnout among minorities, women, and college-educated whites.
7. This is not a totally unreasonable fear. If Trump has a path to winning, it was always in turning out more non-college whites while minorities stay home. But that means that the real question is turnout. Guess which campaign has invested literally nothing in GOTV, one of the very few campaign investments that shows actual statistical returns?
8. If Trump is abandoning everybody except non-college whites, that means he gives up a bunch of states. Chief among them are FL and VA. As established, with the current swing state layout, FL and VA are the end of the election. This is including PA as a swing state.
9. So if Trump is writing off all minority heavy states, it's not enough for him to just win PA. He needs to turn several other Rust Belt states. Those are probably the only places where a commanding non-college white lead might actually turn blue states into red ones. So that's WI, IA, MI, MN. Those are the places to keep an eye on.
10. Meanwhile he's going to put red states with large minority populations in play. GA is the most obvious one.
11. BOOOOOOOO KRISTOFFER BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
ROLL CALL VOTE
1. It is fine to be afraid. You should be afraid. Let that fear propel you into action.
2. DWS is basically a lousy DNC chair and always has been. That said, she does not matter, and this thread is kind of gross in its fridging of her.
3. If this thread is going to freak out about literally every media beat it is going to be intolerable. The most important media beat is the one that plays overnight. That will be after Bernie and after Warren. Worry at that one.
4. Ultimately the Busters have extremely limited relevance in a world where Bernie Sanders is throwing his weight behind Hillary.
5. Trump did not do better with almost any demographic in recent polls. He did better with exactly one -- non-college-educated white people. He even lost ground among college-educated whites. Then why is he leading? Because the poll contains more of them now.
6. Changes in poll demographics modelling do not correspond to changes in national demographics. There are not more non-college educated white people than there used to be. The only major reason to be concerned is if you think that Trump is going to turn out huge numbers of non-college whites that don't currently vote, and that Hillary will not similarly run up turnout among minorities, women, and college-educated whites.
7. This is not a totally unreasonable fear. If Trump has a path to winning, it was always in turning out more non-college whites while minorities stay home. But that means that the real question is turnout. Guess which campaign has invested literally nothing in GOTV, one of the very few campaign investments that shows actual statistical returns?
8. If Trump is abandoning everybody except non-college whites, that means he gives up a bunch of states. Chief among them are FL and VA. As established, with the current swing state layout, FL and VA are the end of the election. This is including PA as a swing state.
9. So if Trump is writing off all minority heavy states, it's not enough for him to just win PA. He needs to turn several other Rust Belt states. Those are probably the only places where a commanding non-college white lead might actually turn blue states into red ones. So that's WI, IA, MI, MN. Those are the places to keep an eye on.
10. Meanwhile he's going to put red states with large minority populations in play. GA is the most obvious one.
11. BOOOOOOOO KRISTOFFER BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
ROLL CALL VOTE
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I don't think trump or his people know about this (including Manafort) but there's likely enough for Hillary to hit him on it and really scare people that he'll go soft on Russia.
I think that scares people in suburbia more than emails getting hacked (she looks like a victim).
I think that scares people in suburbia more than emails getting hacked (she looks like a victim).
Spoiled Milk
Banned
*FBI.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
This really does feel like its a watergate type story with the small leak turning into a much bigger story.
Thing we gotta trust is the media can find out where it leads
Thing we gotta trust is the media can find out where it leads
If it is, what the hell...
This election cycle is too crazy already but if it really turns out to be WG 2.0 I'll be shocked.
Whoever breaks this is going to get a Pulitzer Prize, you bet your damn ass everyone and their grandmother reporting in this field is going to be chasing this story.
If it's an actual thing that is.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
All in favor, say nay? All in favor, say ayeTHENAYSHAVEITMOTIONHASFAILED.
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