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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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gcubed

Member
I don't think trump or his people know about this (including Manafort) but there's likely enough for Hillary to hit him on it and really scare people that he'll go soft on Russia.

I think that scares people in suburbia more than emails getting hacked (she looks like a victim).

yeah, let me get this out there, i have little doubt that Trump knows about this. I would think its entirely more plausible that Putin sees Trump as favorable, and is tampering with the election on his own.
 

PBY

Banned
Nate silver just now:

*Before* the conventions, Trump had a 35-40% chance of winning, per our models. That's high! Race had already gotten much closer.

If you want to ignore polls for the next 3 weeks that's OK. Polls can be wild during conventions. Trump's bounce pretty average. HOWEVER...

Democrats were maybe too complacent about what happened to Clinton's numbers in July. If you go from +7 to +3 in a month, easy to go to -1.
 

Boke1879

Member
Whoever breaks this is going to get a Pulitzer Prize, you bet your damn ass everyone and their grandmother reporting in this field is going to be chasing this story.

If it's an actual thing that is.

Yup. Gotta be sure it's a story first. But I'm sure there are reporters actually doing their job.
 
This really does feel like its a watergate type story with the small leak turning into a much bigger story.

Thing we gotta trust is the media can find out where it leads

If it is it would be much bigger. This would also, at the very least, be destructive to remaining ties to Russia and could essentially bring down the GOP.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That Russian email stuff is frightening to say the least. The democrats HAVE to start effectively packaging this point.
 

Teggy

Member
All Bernie should have to say is good luck continuing the revolution with 3 more conservative justices on the bench for 20 years. Will they listen?

edit: Hillary currently talking about how the convention is going to be different than last week. Eeek.
 

pigeon

Banned
That Russian email stuff is frightening to say the least. The democrats HAVE to start effectively packaging this point.

No. This is dumb. Accusing your political opponent of being a Russian plant delegitimizes the issue.

The government should push it and the media should push it. Clinton should stay away from it.
 
No. This is dumb. Accusing your political opponent of being a Russian plant delegitimizes the issue.

The government should push it and the media should push it. Clinton should stay away from it.

They don't need to be direct. Kaine's line of "criticizes everyone but Putin." Is the right way to get at it. Offer the question of why he is doing this.
 
All Bernie should have to say is good luck continuing the revolution with 3 more conservative justices on the bench for 20 years. Will they listen?

edit: Hillary currently talking about how the convention is going to be different than last week. Eeek.
I have it on good authority that the Supreme Court doesn't matter because it takes on average four years to get a case through to the Supremes, and that Trump wouldn't be able to appoint anyone more extreme than Merrick Garland because of "gridlock."

Source: Facebook dumbass bringing up easily refutable points

Guys. The DNC is going to be fine.
 
No. This is dumb. Accusing your political opponent of being a Russian plant delegitimizes the issue.

The government should push it and the media should push it. Clinton should stay away from it.

I agree.

Paint him as not tough on Putin though, voters can tie to two together.

She should absolutly attack him as weak on NATO
 
The support of white evangelicals for Trump is honestly legendary though.

He's been condemned by religious congressional leaders (Cruz, Lee), condemned by religious websites, his goal is persecution of Latino and black and Muslim Americans (who are more religious than non-evangelical white people on average), he's not religious at all and is somewhat moderate when it comes to LGBT issues and has probably paid for abortions for women... And yet they're going 90% for Trump.

I wish Hillary would start supporting legal weed and other socially liberal positions now that it's clear that white evangelicals will never, ever, ever support a Democrat woman.

White Evangelicals overlap with bigots pretty heavily. It's good cover for bigotry. Until now.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
If it was Russia they're gonna make sure to have as much evidence as humanly possible given how this would not only impact international relations but the election.

.

Hence the FBI investigation annoucenment. Then in a month or two they can publish their results without having to publicly out secret sources.
 

Bowdz

Member
No. This is dumb. Accusing your political opponent of being a Russian plant delegitimizes the issue.

The government should push it and the media should push it. Clinton should stay away from it.

Indeed. Pigeon is on point to today. ON FUCKING POINT SON.
 

lyrick

Member
Just received my first Convention text from Hillary Campaign

Any guesses on what's going to drop from the Ceiling?
Answer:
2016-07-25.jpg
 
I wonder if Bernie talking with his delegates will do anything.

It won't, many of those people are too far gone. I've seen too many interviews with Bernie delegates who thought there was a legit chance he could still get the nomination this week. This is going to be a shit show
 

dramatis

Member
Nate Silver is diablosing.

This is a serious post.
What I'm surprised about is how people were shitting on him for how his model was increasing Trump's probability of winning, and calling him a hack pundit.

Even Nate Silver is human and can diablos.
 

Bowdz

Member
Hence the FBI investigation annoucenment. Then in a month or two they can publish their results without having to publicly out secret sources.

I'll laugh my goddamn ass off if the FBI investigates this and finds something incriminating for the Trump campaign after investigating Clinton and not charging her. It would be schadenfreude of the highest order.
 

Boke1879

Member
In one way I'm glad Bernie is putting all his weight behind Clinton and trying to mitigate and residual damage.

That said. A lot of this is his doing.
 

Teggy

Member
They said that the Bernie meeting was going to be closed to press, but CNN has a camera in there.

edit: Bernie looking a bit crazed right now.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No. This is dumb. Accusing your political opponent of being a Russian plant delegitimizes the issue.

The government should push it and the media should push it. Clinton should stay away from it.

"Packaging." Not "Publicly accusing."

Detail this stuff and get it all packaged up for a massive ad release if/when it finally is confirmed.
 

Cub3h

Banned
They said that the Bernie meeting was going to be closed to press, but CNN has a camera in there.

So does MSNBC.

I don't get what anyone sees in Bernie, he's literally just shouting like Trump while reciting his same tired stump speech.
 

Bowdz

Member
In one way I'm glad Bernie is putting all his weight behind Clinton and trying to mitigate and residual damage.

That said. A lot of this is his doing.

All that matters is the outcome. No one will care how we got there come January 2017 except Halperin and Heilemann for Game Change 3: Tokyo Drift.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Nate Silver said:
A related thought: This year have looked more like elections from 70s/80s/90s. Many undecideds. Polls volatile. Not as steady as 04, 08, 12.

Sam Wang said:
People have short memories. This year's variation in polls comparable w/2004/08/12

Let the battle begin!
 

Bowdz

Member
So does MSNBC.

I don't get what anyone sees in Bernie, he's literally just shouting like Trump while reciting his same tired stump speech.

White working class people are pissed in this country and Bernie and Trump have talked into it. The GOP has fucked up government to the point that a huge swath of the country is just furious with everyone in DC and want nothing to do with it. I can absolutely understand being pissed off if your quality of life hasn't improved in a decade or so. When people see Bernie or Trump as the only truth tellers or only agents of change, coming around to a more establishment pick will be hard.
 

PBY

Banned
Twitter commentary on this Bernie speech

Starting to think this Sanders speech is going to hurt party unity.
-Ethan Klapper

Now at both conventions, there is still a lot of talk about what happened during the primaries. Bernie now listing his delegate wins.
-Dorey Scheimer

Bernie's message is all about gains won during the primary -- platform changes, "60 percent decline" in superdelegates.
-daveweigel


.@BernieSanders is not sounding like a guy who is about to give a full throated endorsement to @HillaryClinton 2nite
-Brigid Bergin
 

Crocodile

Member
And these are the types of the comments that cause so much pushback. Even after he endorsed.

I mean the comment is both accurate and devoid of hyperbole though

  • Bernie had lots of rallies, big ones even
  • He did especially well with college aged voters
  • Even in states he held big rallies in, he often got crushed in the actual votes. The rallies didn't save him in NY, CA, etc.
Which of those points are wrong or slanderous?

Well then.

Well she can find the nearest wood chipper and jump right into it. Being rich must be swell.

It won't, many of those people are too far gone. I've seen too many interviews with Bernie delegates who thought there was a legit chance he could still get the nomination this week. This is going to be a shit show

I feel things would have been better off if Bernie had tried to bring them down to Earth weeks/months ago. He endorsed so late I dunno if some people got enough time to come to their senses.
 
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