That's a really bad idea.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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That's a really bad idea.
So we can get a bunch of interviews from them on every news channel about how the DNC is censoring them?
Last thing we need.
TumblingHippo
Member
Bernie or Bust march looks like a Trump rally
(Going by what CNN is choosing to show, of course...)
(Going by what CNN is choosing to show, of course...)
Let me guess. Mostly if not all white people?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I wouldn't go that far. NC did vote for Romney after all, even if it was close.
If you're looking at a 6-8 point win for Clinton (a large win by contemporary standards), that's still only about 3 points better than what Obama did in 2012 putting NC on knife's edge albeit slightly favoring us. Those votes wouldn't be equally distributed, of course.
I mean they doxxed a bunch of people with the DNC leaks too. Wiki leaks is nothing but trash
TumblingHippo
Member
Very young too, lots of college kids. Maybe there's a minority behind one of the anonymous masks?
On one hand I want to be excited about a bunch of younger people getting fired up over an election, I just don't know how it will turn out.
gutter_trash
Banned
NC is currently swingy, one the more flippy swingies of States
bodyofanamerican
Member
Again...who can be surprised by this?
It was said MONTHS ago that the worst thing Bernie could have done was take Republican attacks and use them to attack Hillary from the left. That only validated everything that had said about her for people who didn't know better. He then went full Rambo and attacked the DNC itself. No way was he ever going to be able to walk that back. His endorsement and support is useless at this point.
I don't see how his speech tonight will be received any better. I just hope it's relegated to his speech. If his supporters are prepared to boo and chant Bernie over everyone...a mess.
It was said MONTHS ago that the worst thing Bernie could have done was take Republican attacks and use them to attack Hillary from the left. That only validated everything that had said about her for people who didn't know better. He then went full Rambo and attacked the DNC itself. No way was he ever going to be able to walk that back. His endorsement and support is useless at this point.
I don't see how his speech tonight will be received any better. I just hope it's relegated to his speech. If his supporters are prepared to boo and chant Bernie over everyone...a mess.
I'm all for younger people getting involved in the process. I just wonder if they know what's at stake or how the process works. I mean they've been led to believe everything was rigged.
Dominican Power
Member
Bernie supporters are fucking stupid, holy shit.
Coriolanus
Banned
What did the OG GJ do to to be unworthy of your vote, fam? Did he diss BJ?
...going to?
nature boy
Member
Or just go to the Upshot and check the winning possibilities.
PS: Who are these twats on MSNBC.
the NYT interactive thing basically as NC as the closest state this election, with a 56% chance to go Hillary
edit: Er, that's what it was yesterday. Now it's still the closest with 51% Hillary
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
wow, you're so right.
"trump will be neutralized"
"he doesnt really want to be president"
"what Trump wants to do, Hillary has already done"
Spoiled Milk
Banned
STRAWMEN ALERT
Hillary has already consolidated 4/5 of Bernie's supporters, nobody cares about the rest. I'd rather she swoop up some pro business conservatives and pivot center. Fuck off, socialists!
Aaron Strife
Banned
I honestly don't think the amount of Bernie supporters who are refusing to support Clinton - who would have supported her if Bernie hadn't run - is that significant.
Clinton has always been a polarizing figure except when she's seen as being above the fray (such as it was with her as Secretary of State), then she's just a generic politician. Did her approval ratings drop in response to Bernie running for prez? I'm not sure if they did.
The people making the most noise were never firmly in our column. They're stupid and obnoxious, but try not to worry about it. That's all we can do.
Clinton has always been a polarizing figure except when she's seen as being above the fray (such as it was with her as Secretary of State), then she's just a generic politician. Did her approval ratings drop in response to Bernie running for prez? I'm not sure if they did.
The people making the most noise were never firmly in our column. They're stupid and obnoxious, but try not to worry about it. That's all we can do.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump as president scenarios:
Worst case: Nuclear war with China that kills hundreds of millions (2% probability)
Most likely case: Judges that overturn Roe v Wade, land invasion of Iran that goes as badly as Iraq, major recession (50% probability)
Best case: Trump is impeached almost instantly and Pence is installed as president but the impeachment keeps the government from being able to do anything until 2018 when the Dems win back the House and Senate and most Governor mansions (5% probability).
Right or wrong?
Worst case: Nuclear war with China that kills hundreds of millions (2% probability)
Most likely case: Judges that overturn Roe v Wade, land invasion of Iran that goes as badly as Iraq, major recession (50% probability)
Best case: Trump is impeached almost instantly and Pence is installed as president but the impeachment keeps the government from being able to do anything until 2018 when the Dems win back the House and Senate and most Governor mansions (5% probability).
Right or wrong?
The remainder aren't even socialists. It's amazing how almost nobody is moving to Stein, and instead going to Trump or Johnson. It just shows that politics is about personality and not policy.
And what medium did he use?
IggyChooChoo
Member
Do you work for Hot Pockets? He's the best thing that ever happened to you people!
Black Mamba
Member
In these end she'll get 90%.
10% are for Ron paultards or non-voters anyway with a few sprinkles are new voters that don't know much.
This hand-wringing over a small contingent of Bernie Supporters doesn't mean much outside of some bad optics.
VendettaRed07
Member
He's going to need to flip Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to have a shot.
I think Santorum knows
balladofwindfishes
Member
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Oh god, never thought I'd be glad to see yougov of all fucking pollsters.
2-way numbers sine last week.
Hillary Clinton: 47% (+2)
Donald Trump: 42% (+1)
You're right, it is a small percentage of his supporters.
Only problem is that small percentage makes up a large percentage of Bernie's delegates.
And this is the one week they can make a whole lot of noise and effect the narrative surrounding the convention.
Box of Kittens
Banned
On some level it amazes me that people think their intentions are virtuous. Then I remember that it's because they're not thinking about it logically, they just see Wikileaks as anti-establishment and therefore good.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Btw Clinton is pulling ads from Colorado because she's up big there.
Trump's supposed strength in the rust belt might not ultimately mean much if he's locked out of minority-heavy swing states. Neither CO nor NV look likely, Kaine probably takes VA off the board. And hopefully he'll help neutralize Trump's appeal in certain pockets of OH/PA (something the Clinton campaign seems aware of and is taking seriously).
So what does that leave... Florida might have a Clinton advantage due again to Latinos. Iowa and New Hampshire might be her worst swing states, it might help to get Bernie to camp out there. And as said earlier, Kaine's appeal to WWC and the demographic shifts there could help flip NC.
Anecdotal - my girlfriend's mom hates Trump but doesn't like Clinton much either. She really likes Kaine. I think Pence and Kaine were both chosen for similar reasons (to assuage fears/concerns about the top of the ticket), but Kaine is a much more successful pick because he's very personable and interesting in his own right. Pence seemingly brings nothing to the ticket other than not being as crazy or standoffish as Trump. You could replace him with a wooden board and it wouldn't make any difference.
Trump's supposed strength in the rust belt might not ultimately mean much if he's locked out of minority-heavy swing states. Neither CO nor NV look likely, Kaine probably takes VA off the board. And hopefully he'll help neutralize Trump's appeal in certain pockets of OH/PA (something the Clinton campaign seems aware of and is taking seriously).
So what does that leave... Florida might have a Clinton advantage due again to Latinos. Iowa and New Hampshire might be her worst swing states, it might help to get Bernie to camp out there. And as said earlier, Kaine's appeal to WWC and the demographic shifts there could help flip NC.
Anecdotal - my girlfriend's mom hates Trump but doesn't like Clinton much either. She really likes Kaine. I think Pence and Kaine were both chosen for similar reasons (to assuage fears/concerns about the top of the ticket), but Kaine is a much more successful pick because he's very personable and interesting in his own right. Pence seemingly brings nothing to the ticket other than not being as crazy or standoffish as Trump. You could replace him with a wooden board and it wouldn't make any difference.
Black Mamba
Member
Good news is, most people only watch the major speeches from 7-8 and that will be the Obamas, Clintons, Kaine, Bernie, and Warren.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Bernie wouldn't have a following as Clinton's VP. His holdouts just want to hear him talk shit about Clinton. Which he obviously can't and wouldn't do as VP. The minute he says something supportive (see: now), they turn on him.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Interesting thing: Bernie supporters are super fucking mad still, but none of them are voting for Trump in this poll. However, Kasich/Rubio voters are voting for Hillary. 24% of anti-Trump Republican primary voters are for Hillary in this poll whereas just 5% of anti-Hillary voters are for Trump in this poll (instead, a bunch of them pick Stein, Johnson, and "someone else")
was i right? thread moves too fast
It's hard to blame them for being mad right now given the coverage of the email thing. Yeah, it was Russian orchestrated to hurt Clinton. But the tone of the DNC being for Clinton is still there and it roused old wounds.
All according to plan, of course, but raw wounds based seemingly in fact would make anyone mad. Rationality loses out to emotional fury a lot of the time, especially if your personal stakes in getting over it aren't that high.
BotoxAgent
Member
we always freak out, so it's a safe prediction lol
Roland_Gunner
Member
Lol, I completely admit to freaking out about the Trump bounce + this email fiasco. Ready to live that expat life and everything.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump and Putin is a great wedge issue for Obama to use to get better relations with China.
Trump as president is a horrific outcome for China, but Russia desperately wants it.
Trump as president is a horrific outcome for China, but Russia desperately wants it.
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