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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Ted Cruz is going to get primaried.

Ted Cruz favorables after the convention:

CNN: 27 favorable/57 unfavorable
CBS: 15 favorable/50 unfavorable

edit: Sorry for double post, thought thread was moving too quickly for that to happen!
 
J

Jeels

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Ted Cruz is going to get primaried.

Ted Cruz favorables after the convention:

CNN: 27 favorable/57 unfavorable
CBS: 15 favorable/50 unfavorable

edit: Sorry for double post, thought thread was moving too quickly for that to happen!
Click to expand...

Hopefully he is primaried from the center and not from the right because I'm afraid there are people in Texas who would be willing to vote for someone crazier than he is...
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Jeels said:
Hopefully he is primaried from the center and not from the right because I'm afraid there are people in Texas who would be willing to vote for someone crazier than he is...
Click to expand...

Who is to the right of Cruz exactly?

His numbers will also rebound when Trump loses (or wins and is a disaster).
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Ted Cruz is going to get primaried.

Ted Cruz favorables after the convention:

CNN: 27 favorable/57 unfavorable
CBS: 15 favorable/50 unfavorable

edit: Sorry for double post, thought thread was moving too quickly for that to happen!
Click to expand...

It would be so grand if it happened. For women, Muslims, and Republicans who are very unhappy with that stunt he pulled.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
In contrast, positive views of Ted Cruz - who conspicuously did not endorse Donald Trump during his speech at the Republican Convention - have dropped precipitously among Republican voters. Now just 25 percent of Republican voters view Cruz favorably, down from 44 percent right before the convention. 49 percent of Republican voters view the Texas senator unfavorably, up from 25 percent.
Click to expand...

Cruz: "I will use nuclear weapons against ISIS."
GOP voters: "This guy is good!"
Cruz: "I don't endorse the guy who insulted my dad and wife."
GOP voters: "Fuck you!"

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hi...-trump-tied-going-into-democratic-convention/
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
StoOgE said:
Who is to the right of Cruz exactly?

His numbers will also rebound when Trump loses (or wins and is a disaster).
Click to expand...

This, Cruz's stunt will only pay off if/when Trump loses, and the election dissipates. Cruz's numbers right now don't mean shit, regardless of how high or low they are.
 
O

Ondore

Member
Still a little gobsmacked about the Russia thing - didn't RMoney say during one of the debates in 2012 that Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat to the US?

Now one cycle later the GOP nominates a talking yam whose head is so far up Putin's ass he can see what Putin had for breakfast. Unreal.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Remember everybody telling me last week that that speech was a great idea for Cruz?

LOLOL
 
A

ampere

Member
bodyofanamerican said:
source
Click to expand...

when u get caught up in the moment and everyone is cheering your name

Y2Kev said:
It's painful when Kris has more perspective than the rest of the thread. But that's why he is honorary chair and y'all are busted
Click to expand...

wow kev just ethered the whole thread AGAIN. I gotta nurse these wounds

Box of Kittens said:
On some level it amazes me that people think their intentions are virtuous. Then I remember that it's because they're not thinking about it logically, they just see Wikileaks as anti-establishment and therefore good.
Click to expand...

If the only stuff they were releasing was like, legit stuff we should know AND they censored any personal information (SSNs, phone numbers, addresses, etc) then I could have some respect

But it's just a huge data dump for attention
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
The difference in Wang's and Silver's attitudes today is something else.

One is calm and collected, sharing data and reasons why nobody should really panic and explaining why his model isn't really changing, and Silver has Trump winning and going crazy on Twitter.

Did the Primaries really shake 538 that much?
 
K

kess

Member
Ondore said:
Still a little gobsmacked about the Russia thing - didn't RMoney say during one of the debates in 2012 that Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat to the US?

Now one cycle later the GOP nominates a talking yam whose head is so far up Putin's ass he can see what Putin had for breakfast. Unreal.
Click to expand...

Romney sent one of his kids to Russia on the eve of the elecfion, so I'm inclined to think that he was less against Russia as he appeared on the surface -- although this is a significant departure from the 2012 platform.

I'm disturbed by presidential candidates using their grown children as de facto diplomats, and this is the second election in a row where authority is being delegated to sons.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump as president scenarios:

Worst case: Nuclear war with China that kills hundreds of millions (2% probability)
Most likely case: Judges that overturn Roe v Wade, land invasion of Iran that goes as badly as Iraq, major recession (50% probability)
Best case: Trump is impeached almost instantly and Pence is installed as president but the impeachment keeps the government from being able to do anything until 2018 when the Dems win back the House and Senate and most Governor mansions (5% probability).

Right or wrong?
Click to expand...

I am absolutely serious when I say Trump clearly doesn't believe in democracy.

I think there would be a coup attempt. That's best case. Worst case is a coup.
 
G

gcubed

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
The difference in Wang's and Silver's attitudes today is something else.

One is calm and collected, sharing data and reasons why nobody should really panic and explaining why his model isn't really changing, and Silver has Trump winning and going crazy on Twitter.

Did the Primaries really shake 538 that much?
Click to expand...

Nate has become a joke because of the primaries, so yes, he's rattled
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
StoOgE said:
Who is to the right of Cruz exactly?

His numbers will also rebound when Trump loses (or wins and is a disaster).
Click to expand...

G000552.jpg


about time this national treasure of a man got a promotion
 
R

Risette

A Good Citizen
balladofwindfishes said:
The difference in Wang's and Silver's attitudes today is something else.

One is calm and collected, sharing data and reasons why nobody should really panic and explaining why his model isn't really changing, and Silver has Trump winning and going crazy on Twitter.

Did the Primaries really shake 538 that much?
Click to expand...
That and Silver has a media site to run. Clicks make money.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Crisco said:
The amazing thing to me is the majority of these "anti-establishment" folks appear to be white, relatively well off, and work for a company with progressive enough employee practices to allow them time off for political cheerleading.
Click to expand...

Well, there's a filter there. If they aren't well off enough to work for such a company, they aren't there.
 
A

ampere

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
The difference in Wang's and Silver's attitudes today is something else.

One is calm and collected, sharing data and reasons why nobody should really panic and explaining why his model isn't really changing, and Silver has Trump winning and going crazy on Twitter.

Did the Primaries really shake 538 that much?
Click to expand...

Nate has admitted that the "now cast" thing is very volatile (I'm not sure why they even have that model tbh) https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757558402667188224

Polls-plus is more stable https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757559058924699648
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Black Mamba said:
It's what I said months ago. Bernie's inability to explain the process to these folks and egg on their conspiracy bullshit means that Bernie can't control his monster.

It's just the left's tea party now. Only difference is our politicians, so far, are not bending to meet their desires in the same way the GOP did.


Regarding 538, I'm sorry but I think Nate's model is horseshit. The swings are way too wild to make any sense. Especially since there's been nothing on the state polling level to indicate the big reversal in the NOWCAST.

So I looked into it and he's unskewing polls!? I don't mean putting weights on pollsters but actually adjusting the numbers. I was confused how he has Donald up in Pa and I looked and despite nearly every poll showing Hillary up (9 out of 10 polls), he adjusted them to 6 showing Trump up. A Clinton +8 is now Clinton +3. Clinton + 4 (from PPP) is now Trump +1.

What the fuck is this horseshit modeling? How can 9 out of 10 polls show Clinton with a decent lead (the avg is like +5) be Trump +1? Something he calls "trendline" which I assume he just believes because the trend nationally or something is one way that it means the numbers in the state are wrong? Which would be a stupid way of doing it but i won't comment without knowing exactly wtf that means.

All I know is it makes no sense and would explain why 538 is so bullish on Trump right now and everyone else like Upshot and Sam Wang are not in their modelling.

Honestly, and I don't say this because I support the numbers that are better for Hillary, but I think 538 is trying to create a model so amazing that is sucks. Stay simpler, IMO. Their model isn't good right now, IMO. I would basically ignore it and look at Upshot.
Click to expand...

Yea I tried to figure out the way his modeling works but gave up. Hillary was up 20% in Florida right on July 11th that dropped 20% essentially on two polls in that time frame. Three polls were done, and two showed Trump ahead. The two polls that showed her down were rated A-, and C. The poll that showed her ahead was rated A. I would think that she would drop some, but not 20%. The only thing I could think of was the trendline he refers to. Since I can't see how that's even calculated or weighted there is no real way for me to see why it affects polls so much. So at that point I gave up trying to understand his model.
 
T

Teggy

Member
And you thought the republicans would say it...


Trip Gabriel
‏@tripgabriel
"She is an evil, vile, corrupt, crooked bitch,'' Ilene Cook, a nurse from Michigan, told me about Clinton at the pro-Bernie rally today
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
pigeon said:
I still think it was. This poll is meaningless. Cruz has literally years to rebuild.
Click to expand...

That speech made Trump move toward setting up a SuperPAC to end his career. Even if Trump loses, he'll still be out there reminding people of how Cruz stabbed everyone in the back.
 
D

daedalius

Member
Teggy said:
And you thought the republicans would say it...


Trip Gabriel
‏@tripgabriel
"She is an evil, vile, corrupt, crooked bitch,'' Ilene Cook, a nurse from Michigan, told me about Clinton at the pro-Bernie rally today
Click to expand...

tea-party of the left is a very apt description for some of these bernie supporters.
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
Plinko said:
That speech made Trump move toward setting up a SuperPAC to end his career. Even if Trump loses, he'll still be out there reminding people of how Cruz stabbed everyone in the back.
Click to expand...

If/When trump loses, no one will give a shit what he says. He will be seen as "the guy who couldn't even beat Hillary Clinton"

Honestly, any other of the republican primary opponents would be walloping Clinton right now.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Plinko said:
That speech made Trump move toward setting up a SuperPAC to end his career. Even if Trump loses, he'll still be out there reminding people of how Cruz stabbed everyone in the back.
Click to expand...

Trump won't be anywhere in December. He definitely isn't going to set up a SuperPAC, come on.
 
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