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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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B

bananas

Banned
Teggy said:
daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 9m9 minutes ago
Pounding thunderstorm in Philly is shutting down a Jill Stein rally. The DNC's nefarious methods know no bounds.
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C

Crocodile

Member
To be clear, I don't think many people in this thread actually think hardcore Bernie Bros are going to ruin the convention (hopefully I don't eat crow later tonight :p). What they do think is that this fringe group are being whiny children, creating bad optics (since that concept is all the rage again :p) and that Sanders could have done more to head this off at the pass. I think most people are just annoyed/saddened/angry along that axis and criticizing these people along those terms more than "THIS WILL COST US THE ELECTION!" (though I doubt it helps :p).

As an aside, its never a good thing when the Left adopts the attacking points on the Right :/
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Crocodile said:
To be clear, I don't think many people in this thread actually think hardcore Bernie Bros are going to ruin the convention (hopefully I don't eat crow later tonight :p). What they do think is that this fringe group are being whiny children, creating bad optics (since that concept is all the rage again :p) and that Sanders could have done more to head this off at the pass. I think most people are just annoyed/saddened/angry along that axis and criticizing these people along those terms more than "THIS WILL COST US THE ELECTION!" (though I doubt it helps :p).
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I bet it's gonna be like the RNC where the dissenters just needed to air thier laundry out for a day or two and they will simmer down.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Black Mamba said:
Aha! I was right. The NOW-CAST has a much more aggressive trend algorithm, which would explain why it's so fucking nuts. I'd go as far to argue it's wrong to put it in but it's kind of impossible to prove since no one votes today.

Basically, the nowcast is junk. It's supposed to say "what would happen if the election were today," but considering the "trend line" basically throws out tons of polling to make some weird trend argument, it's broken down into a poll unskewer.

I've never heard of a pollster or poll modeler saying there should be inputs other than "what do the polls say right now" when making a prediction for a vote today. It's kind of insane, no? Maybe a very very very slight trend at best.

Put it another way. Silver's model is arguing if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would have almost a 60% chance of carrying Pa. despite the fact that a polls-only model (not his, but one without a trend) would predict a Hillary win with about 95% chance.

Does that make any sense to you?

Of course, this is all happening because 538 is losing money and he needs traffic or ESPN is going to can his ass like Simmons.

My point is that if the NowCast is especially prone to swinginess of national polls (because there is none at the state level!), then it's a useless toll to put out there in July. It means nothing because it's trends are to aggressive to make mathematical sense.





Wang and Silver both agree that the polls don't mean too much now. But Wang has also been trolling Silver for months (including today) because he's basically a pundit now ignoring proper election analysis.


My problem is that Silver's model isn't very good if it can't really accurately forecast the election by now. At this point, anyone can accurately predict the election on Nov 5 if it's pretty obviously one way or another. There's nothing interesting there.

Silver's model is schizo and I don't like that. A good model should be stable and change gradually as inputs change. It shouldn't be affected this much this quickly by a few polls.

But Silver isn't a classically trained statistician at all (unlike say Wang) so I notice he continues to get certain things wrong and I believe this is another one of them.
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ALL GLORY TO THE GREAT WANG!
 
P

Piecake

Member
Roy isn’t happy about this: He believes it means the Democrats will dominate national American politics for some time. But he also believes the Republican Party has lost its right to govern, because it is driven by white nationalism rather than a true commitment to equality for all Americans.

“Until the conservative movement can stand up and live by that principle, it will not have the moral authority to lead the country,” he told me.

His history of conservatism was a Greek tragedy. It begins with a fatal error in 1964, survived on the willful self-delusion of people like Roy himself, and ended with Donald Trump.

“I think the conservative movement is fundamentally broken,” Roy tells me. “Trump is not a random act. This election is not a random act.”

“Conservative intellectuals, and conservative politicians, have been in kind of a bubble,” Roy says. “We’ve had this view that the voters were with us on conservatism — philosophical, economic conservatism. In reality, the gravitational center of the Republican Party is white nationalism.”
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http://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12256510/republican-party-trump-avik-roy

That's surprising. I remember Avik Roy being the dude that the Republicans threw out there to trash Obamacare, or at least used his criticisms.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Okay, so it seems Ellison is introducing Bernie but it is Michelle - Warren - Bernie with different people introducing each of them.

Well, Michelle gets a video not a person, but Warren get Joe Kennedy III
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
ISWThunder said:
So they're doing it solely to brag that they were arrested for the cause? Is this the apex of hipster douchbaggery?
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Yep, we reached critical hipster levels. I hope the government has a crisis plan.
 
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