Hillary cheers seem to be doing pretty good at hiding the boos. Tim Kaine they're still working on.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
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Hillary cheers seem to be doing pretty good at hiding the boos. Tim Kaine they're still working on.
I just think things will be fine thats all.
Democrats are nominating the first ever Female nominee for president of the united states for a major political party and I think it will feel epic after tonight.
All this angst over a few boos that are being drowned out by cheers. Hillary's convention is not being ruined. This is completely healthy. There are some stark ideological differences in the party and there's no reason they have to be swept under the rug. They aren't disrupting order or drowning out speeches. As far as I'm concerned things are progressing remarkably smoothly, and things will only get smoother once Bernie gives a strong endorsement of Hillary.
My bad. However, being sarcastic in a heated thread usually isn't a good idea and to be frank, there really aren't a lot of context clues to tell me that was sarcasm. People have been saying some silly things 'round here with a straight face. I can't see your face or hear your voice over the internet.
That's like the literal opposite of true but ok?
Nope, there hasn't been much of that for a while. last I really noticed in a big way (where it was distinguishable from random crowd noise) was the Elijah Cummings TPP chant.
Just occasional shots of white people looking indignant with their mouths taped shut, holding signs that say 'Bernie Trumps Trump'.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Oh...ok
User 463088
Banned
I'm sorry, but there will exist no argument I accept in which chanting "TPP" over Elijah Cummings will ever be defensible. Period.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
So its nothing.
These idiots are there in every election
Jerry Brown is gonna be there. What a world!
cartoon_soldier
Member
nature boy
Member
Didn't read the comments.
eBay Huckster
Member
also, yeah, at the end of the day...
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I know. I was criticizing myself there. My mistake.
ShironRedshift
Member
Indeed. Feel really bad for Cummings in particular. He didn't deserve that.
I mean, I get it. They have their free speech. And they're frustrated. But the speakers have their free speech too, and this is there event. Let them speak, and listen, and then speak yourself and you might be listened to. That's how this is supposed to work.
But if you're just going to speak over them, that just proves that your a huge hypocrite. If you do that, and whine about your free speech, then that's what you are, as you clearly don't clear about their speech. And if you do that, that means that you clearly aren't listening to what they're saying and making it hard for others to do the same. And if you aren't even trying to listen to them, in their own house, during their own moment... how can you possibly get upset when they do the same and don't listen to you? It just shows that they aren't even interested in hearing the message of anyone else or letting anyone else hear that message-they just want their own and only their own to be heard. And if that's the case, when your disrespecting the people on the stage and silencing their voices, you do not get to whine about other people not hearing your's.
Speak. Have your freedom of speech and make your voices heard. That's great! That's a wonderful thing and is what this country is built on.
But when other people are speaking, let their voices be hard as well, and listen. Listen, let them have their voice, and then have your voice heard. That's how a dialogue is supposed to work.
Not this. Not shouting over speakers and then whinging over people not hearing your message, when you clearly don't give a fuck about the message of the people speaking or even beginning to attempt to hear it and trying to have it both ways and being a huge hypocrite.
Listen. Then be heard. This shouldn't be hard. It's not. We can do so much better than this and make sure we hear each other's voices. How today started off wasn't that, and it makes me mad that people are complaining about not having their voices heard when they clearly didn't give a fuck about what Cummings had to say and making it difficult for others, who are there to hear it, to do so either (and it was a wonderful message that in no way deserved that!).
But just... whatever... ugh... Just hope things stay relatively calm like it is now once the big names start talking.
"She's a badass and she's ready to lead" preach
It's like well off children screaming about their icecream not having sprinkles while a man talks about his hardships
It's like well off children screaming about their icecream not having sprinkles while a man talks about his hardships
Then maybe they should boo stances and policies that the speakers voice that they dislike and disagree with instead of booing every time Hilary is mentioned, Booing the TTP randomly and shouting pro Bernie shit
I don't think too many people would have a problem with that. Instead they ARE coming off as deranged and deluded petulant children with absolutely no manners.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
I dunno, seeing this has started to settle I think we are going to be fine. If Bernreguard Q Sanders is retooling his speech then I think the message will get through. This will be the biggest speech of his life, so let's see how it goes.
metalslimer
Member
Well guys I'm not liking what I'm hearing since I can't watch the convention. I hope Bernie gives an amazing speech.
Roland_Gunner
Member
The Sanders supporters were given unprecedented chances to influence the party platform to help address those grievances and received many concessions. Then was the time to address this stuff. Not now. The convention is a time to unite the party instead a group of Sanders supporters are driving it apart. Its petulant and absurd.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Holy shit Dems, come on.
What? It's a weather alert.
Yeah, it's storming like crazy now.
Usually downpours like this don't last long though.
Most of those tents I saw put up are likely going to get blown over.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Build better tents. Dems are supposed to be good at building bigger tents after all!
Black Mamba
Member
Per http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
He hasn't added anything about trending to the non-Election Now algorithms as best as I can tell?
Thing about Silver's current algorithm is that he's just adding the data as it comes in for the time being; and if the polls are bouncing all around the place due to it being super early in the race and they are currently imprecise, his model is going to reflect that uncertainty. I suspect the models will start to converge much more heavily as you hit late September / early October. I mean, Clinton has gone from a 7 point lead to a 3 point lead in a month. When you are having 3-4 point swings every week, the uncertainty becomes high, and then you get stuff like California having a 3% chance. Silver's model is extremely sensitive to swings at the beginning of a race because it's just using past data to build itself. This makes it susceptible to swinginess, but it also more likely catches the specific attributes of a given year's race.
The funniest part about the GOP primaries is that the model kept saying "Trump's gonna win unless the GOP coalesces around a single person", but Silver kept assuming that the GOP would do so. He stopped listening to the model and just went qualitative assumption on the whole thing.
To put 3% in perspective, that was the chance the Nets made the playoffs this year.
Aha! I was right. The NOW-CAST has a much more aggressive trend algorithm, which would explain why it's so fucking nuts. I'd go as far to argue it's wrong to put it in but it's kind of impossible to prove since no one votes today.
Basically, the nowcast is junk. It's supposed to say "what would happen if the election were today," but considering the "trend line" basically throws out tons of polling to make some weird trend argument, it's broken down into a poll unskewer.
I've never heard of a pollster or poll modeler saying there should be inputs other than "what do the polls say right now" when making a prediction for a vote today. It's kind of insane, no? Maybe a very very very slight trend at best.
Put it another way. Silver's model is arguing if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would have almost a 60% chance of carrying Pa. despite the fact that a polls-only model (not his, but one without a trend) would predict a Hillary win with about 95% chance.
Does that make any sense to you?
Of course, this is all happening because 538 is losing money and he needs traffic or ESPN is going to can his ass like Simmons.
My point is that if the NowCast is especially prone to swinginess of national polls (because there is none at the state level!), then it's a useless toll to put out there in July. It means nothing because it's trends are to aggressive to make mathematical sense.
Wang and Silver both agree that the polls don't mean too much now. But Wang has also been trolling Silver for months (including today) because he's basically a pundit now ignoring proper election analysis.
My problem is that Silver's model isn't very good if it can't really accurately forecast the election by now. At this point, anyone can accurately predict the election on Nov 5 if it's pretty obviously one way or another. There's nothing interesting there.
Silver's model is schizo and I don't like that. A good model should be stable and change gradually as inputs change. It shouldn't be affected this much this quickly by a few polls.
But Silver isn't a classically trained statistician at all (unlike say Wang) so I notice he continues to get certain things wrong and I believe this is another one of them.
NihonTiger90
Member
Hillary controls the weather.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Establishment weather!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
FUCK
Yeah, right. I bet they plan on locking them all in for the duration of the convention. Don't fall for it, Berners!!!!! #cantinternthebern
I mean of course that would be ideal, but the disruptions so far have been so remarkably benign that I don't understand how people are viewing this as a disaster. You were never going to be happy if the boos so far have clouded over the convention for you.
Most Sanders supporters are happy with the changes they've caused and are on the bandwagon, these disruptions are not driving the democratic party apart.
Did you not see the lightning strikes that took out the L in Chicago last night? I don't think they are trying to be cute or anything.
titiklabingapat
Member
This was actually already mentioned last Friday by CNN. They actually experienced intense thunderstorms during one of the tapings and had to cut it off. Summer afternoon thunderstorms are not that uncommon there.
If anything this will be a good coincidence to tamper the supposed Bernie or Buster protest.
In case you didnt know the North East is in the middle of a massive storm
NO BROCCOLI, NO KALE
WE WANT A PRESIDENT AGAINST LEAFY GREENS AND FOR BACON
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cartoon_soldier
Member
Oh god no
She can't keep getting away with this!!!
User 463088
Banned
Can I mix you a drink?
It's China that controls the weather. And China is Russia's geopolitical rival, so they're trying to help Hillary. #INTRIGUE!
Thagomizer
Member
DO NOT ACCEPT
whyamihere
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(The Wells Fargo Center will not flood)
whyamihere
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lololololol
What a pity.
I HAVE EMPLOYER-PROVIDED HEALTHCARE AND DO NOT GET A BENEFIT FROM THIS PROPOSAL
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