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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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F

Fox318

Member
gcubed said:
the cult got their candidate last time, so it wasn't an issue. Its an issue when the cult doesn't get what it wants.
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maybe that's part of the trick to getting elected.

Movements are part in getting people to the polls.

People talk of Reagan, Obama, Kennedy, and McGovern having movements built around them.

Even a George Wallace.

I will say its kinda funny that a complex international trade agreement that was essentially created to ward off Chinese economic growth is the elephant in the room.
 
I

Iolo

Member
If they do wind up booing Michelle I'm afraid there's going to be a literal floor flight. Which I guess at least would be something we haven't seen for a while.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Iolo said:
If they do wind up booing Michelle I'm afraid there's going to be a literal floor flight. Which I guess at least would be something we haven't seen for a while.
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I think there will be some minor booing but it will be drowned out by everyone else.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Iolo said:
If they do wind up booing Michelle I'm afraid there's going to be a literal floor flight. Which I guess at least would be something we haven't seen for a while.
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They'd do well to try and get most of those people out then before all that. But if this "movement" wants to be childish they are hurting themselves at this point. No way you can justify shouting over Rep. Cummings like that.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
They moved Bernie (from the DNC thread)
BHb52Mi.png
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I think Bernie might go in on his own fans.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
okay, context

that Georgia poll's an internal, conducted from June 30-July 6 by Lake Research Partners (B+ 538, D+0.4 bias)

but even if it's 5% favorable to clinton, even a 7% race in georgia is very inconsistent with a tied national race
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Oh boy. A thought just came to me. For the first time in ever, I am affected by what congress does to Social security and social security disability. x.x If Congress wants to fuck with SSA, I have to learn an entirely new set of rules.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Black Mamba said:
No, his model 4 years ago that I can remember did not have the "trend" effect. You're confusing house effect with this trend thing. It's the reason why PEC and upshot are so different than 538 right now. Basically, silver's arguing there's a trend in Trump's favor that is hiding the real number of a poll. He's taking pollsters with small house effects and very reliable and still shifting the number down a lot.

I'm sorry, but if 9 out of 10 polls show Hillary winning by +5, there's no fucking way she's losing by 1 to Trump without polling being completely wrong. And if it's going to revert back after the DNC cuz the "trend" goes the other way, then he's simply overfitting his model and should be ashamed.

Maybe I'm wrong because I do not recall this being in there 4 years ago (house effects and reliability always were but not trend). Had it, Romney would have been a lot higher than he ever was, especially after the RNC.

Silver's polls-only model for November is basically 50/50, so yeah, it's way off compared to upshot or Sam Wang.

Just look at the comparison chart here: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...lights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

His models' vies of Oh, Nv, Pa, Fla, Co, Mi, Minn, are waaaay different than everyone else.

As I said earlier, this is not an issue of wanting to believe something. For the first time, 538 is different than everyone else...so either Silver's latest model has discovered some new thing to measure the election that is more accurate...or he input something making him less reliable and everyone else is still correct.

I'm sorry, but I don't see a valid explanation of how right now Nate Silver's model can justify the argument that all the swing state polling is wrong...which is literally the argument.

edit: Here's the clearest way to argue against Silver's model. It gives California a 96% chance being Dem. There is no fucking way it's 99% (which everyone else agrees). Now, you might think that 3% is nothing...but on a model this intricate to give Trump even a normal outlier chance in Cali (even after black swan events are taking into consideration) is fucking ridiculous. That alone demostrates his model is weak, IMO. vermont 88%??? He's giving a 1 in 4 chance to Trump in Oregon? Is the model high???
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Huh, I thought the skewing was part of his 2012 methodology.

Per http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

He hasn't added anything about trending to the non-Election Now algorithms as best as I can tell?

Thing about Silver's current algorithm is that he's just adding the data as it comes in for the time being; and if the polls are bouncing all around the place due to it being super early in the race and they are currently imprecise, his model is going to reflect that uncertainty. I suspect the models will start to converge much more heavily as you hit late September / early October. I mean, Clinton has gone from a 7 point lead to a 3 point lead in a month. When you are having 3-4 point swings every week, the uncertainty becomes high, and then you get stuff like California having a 3% chance. Silver's model is extremely sensitive to swings at the beginning of a race because it's just using past data to build itself. This makes it susceptible to swinginess, but it also more likely catches the specific attributes of a given year's race.

The funniest part about the GOP primaries is that the model kept saying "Trump's gonna win unless the GOP coalesces around a single person", but Silver kept assuming that the GOP would do so. He stopped listening to the model and just went qualitative assumption on the whole thing.

To put 3% in perspective, that was the chance the Nets made the playoffs this year. :D

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/?ex_cid=endlink

I haven't sat down and torn apart Wang's model, but I suspect his is much more discerning about current polls and noting that they might not mean too terribly much; something Silver has also stated repeatedly. I do think Silver's onto something that people are thinking this is far less close of an election than it actually is right now. But I think as we head into September, it will start to swing back towards Clinton hard. I think the extremely rapid news cycle will pretty much mitigate the effect of all of these problems Clinton has run into by September, and I think Clinton's real concern would be something super damning in the DNC e-mails or someone got onto her server and got a bunch of e-mails from there.

Black Mamba said:
You guys are overreacting to things people don't care about.

Nobody whose vote will matter cares about this stuff.
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Pretty much.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Crocodile said:
Holy fucking shit enough of this nonsense. Is this like "diabolising" to the 10th degree? Yes let's give it to the man who has never been seriously vetted, ran an inferior campaign, has a more myopic campaign message, has less experience building coalitions, failed to engage many key Democratic voting blocks, can't answer FP questions worth a damn most of the time, etc.
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B-Dubs said:
All the skeletons in his closet would have killed him. Sierra Blanca alone would have destroyed him.
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All right, I'm done with sarcasm. I can't do it over the internet.
jbug617 said:
I think Bernie might go in on his own fans.
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Makes sense. Their parents put most of them in bed by 10PM, so they wouldn't feel hurt by it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
You know, okay, I'm not being a bitch here (or maybe I am but I'm not trying to).

When a lot of people keep saying "Who cares no one will care about this?"

You know what. I do care. People that have been with Hillary forever are upset that her convention, that she worked and earned, is being ruined by a bunch of petulant children. The level of disrespect that is being shown to her, Kaine, her supporters and delegates is disgusting. The fact that it upsets some people isn't "OMG guis stop diablosing lololol"

But, you know, whatever.
 
R

royalan

Member
adam387 said:
You know, okay, I'm not being a bitch here (or maybe I am but I'm not trying to).

When a lot of people keep saying "Who cares no one will care about this?"

You know what. I do care. People that have been with Hillary forever are upset that her convention, that she worked and earned, is being ruined by a bunch of petulant children. The level of disrespect that is being shown to her, Kaine, her supporters and delegates is disgusting. The fact that it upsets some people isn't "OMG guis stop diablosing lololol"

But, you know, whatever.
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TELL. THEM.
 
F

Fox318

Member
adam387 said:
You know, okay, I'm not being a bitch here (or maybe I am but I'm not trying to).

When a lot of people keep saying "Who cares no one will care about this?"

You know what. I do care. People that have been with Hillary forever are upset that her convention, that she worked and earned, is being ruined by a bunch of petulant children. The level of disrespect that is being shown to her, Kaine, her supporters and delegates is disgusting. The fact that it upsets some people isn't "OMG guis stop diablosing lololol"

But, you know, whatever.
Click to expand...

You don't run to be president to shower yourself in praise at the convention.

You run for president because you believe you can use it to make an impact and change the nation for the better.

That and you get a sick ride and a personal bowling alley.


Besides its the first day. People will be fine after tonight.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
adam387 said:
You know, okay, I'm not being a bitch here (or maybe I am but I'm not trying to).

When a lot of people keep saying "Who cares no one will care about this?"

You know what. I do care. People that have been with Hillary forever are upset that her convention, that she worked and earned, is being ruined by a bunch of petulant children. The level of disrespect that is being shown to her, Kaine, her supporters and delegates is disgusting. The fact that it upsets some people isn't "OMG guis stop diablosing lololol"

But, you know, whatever.
Click to expand...



Nah, you're right.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
adam387 said:
You know, okay, I'm not being a bitch here (or maybe I am but I'm not trying to).

When a lot of people keep saying "Who cares no one will care about this?"

You know what. I do care. People that have been with Hillary forever are upset that her convention, that she worked and earned, is being ruined by a bunch of petulant children. The level of disrespect that is being shown to her, Kaine, her supporters and delegates is disgusting. The fact that it upsets some people isn't "OMG guis stop diablosing lololol"

But, you know, whatever.
Click to expand...

I think there is a certain amount of confusion between "this matters electorally" and "this is personally upsetting and shameful."

People are mostly responding to the first (it does not), but I think some people are mostly saying the second.
 
A

ampere

Member
adam387 said:
You know, okay, I'm not being a bitch here (or maybe I am but I'm not trying to).

When a lot of people keep saying "Who cares no one will care about this?"

You know what. I do care. People that have been with Hillary forever are upset that her convention, that she worked and earned, is being ruined by a bunch of petulant children. The level of disrespect that is being shown to her, Kaine, her supporters and delegates is disgusting. The fact that it upsets some people isn't "OMG guis stop diablosing lololol"

But, you know, whatever.
Click to expand...

The disrespect is pretty bad, especially when someone is speaking.

I think people shouldn't be worrying "omg we're going to lose", but being mad or frustrated and the lack of respect some folks in the crowd are showing is totally reasonable.

Some folks have no ability to see beyond their own little bubble of protest
 
I

Iolo

Member
Fox318 said:
You don't run to be president to shower yourself in praise at the convention.

You run for president because you believe you can use it to make an impact and change the nation for the better.

That and you get a sick ride and a personal bowling alley.

Besides its the first day. People will be fine after tonight.
Click to expand...

I do not think being sanctimonious to Adam is your best play right now.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Fox318 said:
You don't run to be president to shower yourself in praise at the convention.

You run for president because you believe you can use it to make an impact and change the nation for the better.

That and you get a sick ride and a personal bowling alley.


Besides its the first day. People will be fine after tonight.
Click to expand...

Literally not the argument anyone is making.

Of course that's why you run for President. But, again, Conventions exist for a purpose, and in the modern era that is a giant party for the nominee. Booing respected members of the party. Chanting TPP over a respected civil rights activist.That is disgraceful. I don't care if you're a Clinton supporter, a Bernie supporter, or a Martian. It's gross. And it reflects poorly on Bernie's movement.

And I hope he gets out there and rips them a new one, because if he wants a legacy other than "spoiler" he needs to do something. And I think he will. Because he's not stupid.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
I'm going to diablos a little bit about pigeon's mental health. By the end of this convention he will be instituionalized.

"Every 20 minutes, Pigeon bursts another blood vessel in his brain. This doesn't have to happen. Please, vote for Hillary Clinton to make universal healthcare a reality. Thank you."
 
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