Is she legally able to release those speeches anyways? I've wondered that since they might be owned by the individual companies/organizations, I'm not sure how that works though.
Anyways there is one of her speeches released that you can always point to, not that it does much good.
Yeah, she actually owns the rights to those speeches, which is why no one has released them yet.
Eh. He got a small bump post convention. That's probably more from an increased response rate than anything.
PEC actually increased their likelihood of a Clinton win today. She's up to 81%. Nate's model...or what he's doing to poll results is odd.
He weights polls by time, and part of the reason people are seeing the disconnect is because most of the state polls were pre RNC (and often pre FBI); ergo, the national polls are probably currently more accurate on a state by state basis than the 3 week+ old state polls.
Basically; this arguably is the peak chance that Trump has to win, between FBI ripping Clinton and RNC bringing GOP voters home (that's where I suspect his convention "bump" is coming from, it's from typical GOP voters coming home. Also may have a higher response rate from GOP leaning voters during the RNC). I agree with Nate that the election is way closer than people seem to realize - but I think by the time the end of August rolls around, you're looking at 70/30. Basically, about 2-3 weeks after the DNC, the set of state polls that release after that are going to be pretty predictive, and you'll probably see most of the models start to converge.