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[gcubed]

It is really sad watching him Chuck Todd himself into being a pundit. Shouldn't have shacked up with ESPN. He was invaluable to keeping me calm in 2012.

Is there something about being from PA that causes diablosing? I grew up in coal and now frack central, skewed my view of the state recently.


Anecdotally I just saw Jim Gaffigan in Pittsburgh. Crowd was very much 40+ white couples and the opening comedian did some jokes on Hillary for some laughs. He then outright insulted Trump and got loud cheers and claps, not even really laughs. Gives me hope. Seemed like a lot of out of towners too.

*breathes into paper bag*

i grew up in coal central PA as well on the other side of the state i assume from you. Ive been in philly for almost 20 years now though (besides a stint in CA). I'm more worried about PA then others, but the Philly suburbs aren't going to vote for Trump and its what will ultimately kill him

 

[GutsOfThor]

Holy Shit. What a tool.

Fuck Fleischer but he does bring up a point. Why hasn't Clinton done a press conference?

 

[thestopsign]

I just want to remind y'all that Trump has an AMA on Reddit today.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

This is false, dont know why people continue to think this.

His number with minorities shows how false this is.

I know, seriously. People freaking out that this won't hurt him are panicking a bit, with all respect. This Russia stuff will kill him with Independents. What might have been a relatively close election as in 2012 is going to turn into a 2008-level blowout at worst because Trump is a hot mess who will scare off Independents with this "I love Russia" shit.

 

[RustyNails]

 

[Zeke]

Ugh fuck that ot thread some people actually trying to defend trump and saying it's just a tongue and cheek comment. Him calling on Russia to hack the Clintons isn't treason but it's right on the line of being sedition.

 

[Tendo]

i grew up in coal central PA as well on the other side of the state i assume from you. Ive been in philly for almost 20 years now though (besides a stint in CA). I'm more worried about PA then others, but the Philly suburbs aren't going to vote for Trump and its what will ultimately kill him

I'm just outside Harrisburg. I see very little support for him in the suburbs around Harrisburg and Hershey. I could see PA being very close this year. I still think (hope) it goes blue. Ohio on the other hand...

I'm just glad I'm not in NC anymore. That was insufferable in '12. Can't imagine it now.

 

[Sickboy007]

Hisnow cast is not as accurate as his polls plus. Nates even tweeted about it. I'm going to see if I can track it down.

Edit: Found it.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Jul 25
@fierman: Polls-plus is the most accurate, historically. But the now-cast is fun if you like to panic!

Panicking is pretty understandable if you look at the trend. The polls-plus was what, 80-20 less than one month ago? Now according to his own forecast it's basically a coin toss, much tighter than 2012.

 

[RustyNails]

Fuck Fleischer but he does bring up a point. Why hasn't Clinton done a press conference?

She was waiting for the convention and until the FBI delivered their verdict. She'll probably start very soon.

 

[TheFatOne]

People keep talking about the rust belt, but the key to this election is Florida. If Hillary wins Florida she wins. She could lose the rust belt win Florida, and still become the president. That's the key given the demographics are favorable to Dems in this election cycle.

Panicking is pretty understandable if you look at the trend. The polls-plus was what, 80-20 less than one month ago? Now according to his own forecast it's basically a coin toss, much tighter than 2012.

Right now polls are noisy. No surprise the gap closing is happening during the RNC. Wait until mid August. If then the polls are close that's when you start worrying.

Why You Should Feel Free to Ignore Polls for the Next Few Weeks

 

[Basileus777]

Panicking is pretty understandable if you look at the trend. The polls-plus was what, 80-20 less than one month ago? Now according to his own forecast it's basically a coin toss, much tighter than 2012.

The wild swings are exactly why you shouldn't be taking it seriously. A good model doesn't do that. If Hillary has a good bounce it'll be showing her at 80% again and have Georgia painted blue.

 

[thestopsign]

Panicking is pretty understandable if you look at the trend. The polls-plus was what, 80-20 less than one month ago? Now according to his own forecast it's basically a coin toss, much tighter than 2012.

Nate has the most aggressive polling model out there and it seriously doesn't sync up with the other modelers like Sam Wang with PEC, NYT Upshot,or the betting markets.

People keep talking about the rust belt, but the key to this election is Florida. If Hillary wins Florida she wins. She could lose the rust belt win Florida, and still become the president. That's the key given the demographics are favorable to Dems in this election cycle.

Florida + Virginia is a win for her.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Lost in that insane Presser that Trump gave, he said that Tim Kaine ruined New Jersey.

He thinks Tim Kaine is Tom Kean.

 

[ampere]

It cracks me up that Nate Silver has that "Nowcast" bullshit with Johnson getting 8%. lol

What are the candidates up to?

Donald Trump: "Look at the headlines! I have so many more headlines than anyone else"

Jill Stein: *masturbates furiously every time she sees a buster post they're going to vote for her*

Gary Johnson: *takes a big hit*

Hillary Clinton: "We've got to end discrimination, gun violence and human trafficking. There's so much work to be done."

 

[Plinko]

That comment is just...wow. I cannot believe he made it, and then I cannot believe he's doubling down on it.

Asking a foreign country to commit espionage on America. And this guy is still leading in some polls?

 

[VendettaRed07]

Panicking is pretty understandable if you look at the trend. The polls-plus was what, 80-20 less than one month ago? Now according to his own forecast it's basically a coin toss, much tighter than 2012.

Florida is the most important state in the election. GWB would not have won either election without it, and the cuban republicans who supported Jeb, who voted for him and Dubya, do not support Trump (or at least nearly in the numbers that they used to vote R, or would have had Jeb been the nominee). Florida was the state Republicans have in recent history done the best with Latinos, but that isn't the case this time around. It's hard to see him winning that state. Almost every poll I've seen has had Hillary double digits ahead.

I think if Jeb, or even Rubio endorse Gary Johnson, Florida should be heavily favored D

 

[Sickboy007]

The wild swings is exactly why you shouldn't be taking it seriously. A good model doesn't do that.

I'm talking about the polls-plus now, it's closer than with Romney at this point. No one worth a mention predicted it.

 

[thebloo]

I'm talking about the polls-plus now, it's closer than with Romney at this point. No one worth a mention predicted it.

A lot of people predicted it, like a lot of people predicted Trump. There was even a list here of people that did just that.

 

[TheFatOne]

Florida is the most important state in the election. GWB would not have won either election without it, and the cuban republicans who supported Jeb, who voted for him and Dubya, do not support Trump. Florida was the state Republicans have in recent history done the best with Latinos, but that isn't the case this time around. It's hard to see him winning that state. Almost every poll I've seen has had Hillary double digits ahead.

Ohh but it gets worse than that. Cubans are starting to lean more democratic now, but wait theres more. Cubans are 31% of the hispanic population, but Puerto Ricans are now 27%. Puerto Ricans lean dem. The demographics are there for the dems to start to take control of Florida not just in this election, but for years to come.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It will be interesting to see the Cuban support of Donald "Cuban immigrants are filthy commies who pretend to be religious, but really aren't" Trump.

Trump attacks on Rafael Cruz were so over the top racist that I'm optimistic.

 

[Iolo]

That comment is just...wow. I cannot believe he made it, and then I cannot believe he's doubling down on it.

Asking a foreign country to commit espionage on America. And this guy is still leading in some polls?

How many polls were taken in the last 30 minutes?

 

[TheFatOne]

You know I have been saying that Kaine should speak Spanish for a good 5 minutes plus, but now I think his entire Speech should be in Spanish with English subtitles just to see the GOP melt down.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

How many polls were taken in the last 30 minutes?

Ohhhh to be a democratic push poller right now. I'd be having the time of my life.

 

[User 463088]

The beautiful thing is if Wikipedia leaks anything we have the right to be pissed and tie it even closer to Trump. It is perfect.

 

[nature boy]

Ohhhh to be a democratic push poller right now. I'd be having the time of my life.

Why? Most people aren't paying attention.

 

[Vestal]

I wonder if this sort of thing would justify Obama withholding National Security briefings from him.

I personally would hope so.

 

[gcubed]

The beautiful thing is if Wikipedia leaks anything we have the right to be pissed and tie it even closer to Trump. It is perfect.

fucking wikipedia. Traitors

 

[eBay Huckster]

The beautiful thing is if Wikipedia leaks anything we have the right to be pissed and tie it even closer to Trump. It is perfect.

I know you mean Wikileaks but god damn if that's not a hilarious freudian slip considering some of the biased edits I've seen on Wikipedia this year

 

[TestOfTide]

The beautiful thing is if Wikipedia leaks anything we have the right to be pissed and tie it even closer to Trump. It is perfect.

[Citation Leaked]

 

[Bowdz]

I wish the press would talk more about the quote about recognizing Crimea as Russian. It's less easy for people to write that off as a joke.

Wait, what?!? Do you have a link?

 

[User 463088]

Damn autocorrect.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Clinton's having the best press week of the election. This is great.

I feel way more optimistic about this Trump blunder because it's Russia. And that cold war hatred runs deep with some key demographics of Trump.

 

[nature boy]

CNN: "Little doubt it was Russia" - Pentagon.

Spoiler

NSA

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Why? Most people aren't paying attention.

Push polls are basically a way of campaigning. They would phrase the question something like:

1) how likely are you to vote for Donald trump?

2) Were you aware of his treasonous comments inviting Russia to hack Hillary Clinton

3) how likely are you to vote for him now?

 

[minor effort]

I wonder if this sort of thing would justify Obama withholding National Security briefings from him.

I personally would hope so.

They should at least postpone them until, to borrow a phrase from Trump himself, "we find out what the heck is going on"

 

[DataStream]

I hope Obama calls Trump out on these comments. The GOP throws around treason like it doesn't have meaning. This is a case where you can say it with a straight face.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

At the very least, it's kind of stupid to say "I have nothing to do with Russia" and then say "Hey Russia, if you're listening, hack those e-mails."

Isn't that kind of tying yourself to Russia?

 

[User 463088]

I hope Obama calls Trump out on these comments. The GOP throws around treason like it doesn't have meaning. This is a case where you can say it with a straight face.

This is Biden's line of attack, I think. Let him hit Trump with this.

 

[User1608]

This better hurt him in the polls as the Orlando response did (like Ballad mentioned).

 

[gutter_trash]

I hope Obama calls Trump out on these comments. The GOP throws around treason like it doesn't have meaning. This is a case where you can say it with a straight face.

I hope part of Obama's speech is about national security, foreign policy and keeping alliances strong and make the case against Donald Trump hard tonight

the DNC has been light on foreign policy so far, tonight is the night to pour it all in

 

[BiggNife]

I do wonder what the heck happened to the rest of the leaks wikileaks promised

At first I thought they decided to skip releasing earlier in the week because the bernie busters were giving the dnc enough bad press already but by all accounts yesterday went great for the dems and still nothing

 

[bananas]

At the very least, all those Republicans who finally came out to support Trump after the RNC will go scurrying back into their holes.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I do wonder what the heck happened to the rest of the leaks wikileaks promised

At first I thought they decided to skip releasing earlier in the week because the bernie busters were giving the dnc enough bad press already but by all accounts yesterday went great for the dems and still nothing

I think the Russian Trump ties started getting too much attention and they halted them to not raise even more suspicion.

That's my theory at least.

 

[Plinko]

How many polls were taken in the last 30 minutes?

It's not just today's statement. He has made similar statements for months.

 

[Zeke]

So serious question since trump is supposed to start getting security briefings soon is there anything that can be done to temporarily stop those briefings from taking place? Or is it more likely that Obama will just give him bare bone info? Also how does that play with Clinton? Aren't they supposed to get the same information?

 

[Veritigo_X]

Wait, what?!? Do you have a link?

Posted it on the last page: https://twitter.com/MareikeAden/status/758325768900476928

He's also apparently open to lifting sanctions against Russia.

Edit: Hm, tweet got deleted. Let me look around.

Bleh, nm I copied it wrong. Works now.

 

[RustyNails]

So serious question since trump is supposed to start getting security briefings soon is there anything that can be done to temporarily stop those briefings from taking place? Or is it more likely that Obama will just give him bare bone info? Also how does that play with Clinton? Aren't they supposed to get the same information?

I believe CIA has to make that determination.

 

[DataStream]

This is Biden's line of attack, I think. Let him hit Trump with this.

No reason they both can't pour it on a bit.

I think having the commander in chief say something carries a significant weight.

 

[nature boy]

I believe CIA has to make that determination.

DNI.

 

[DrMungo]

I hope Obama calls Trump out on these comments. The GOP throws around treason like it doesn't have meaning. This is a case where you can say it with a straight face.

this is absolutely the head of the nail. There was all this crazy Benghazi stuff, of accusing Obama of being weak and selling out etc. Even the Rubio line "Obama knows exactly what he's doing" line has a hint of falsely accusing Obama of treason.

Here there is an open calling for a hostile government to interfere with our elections is traitorous. And no response from Fox News.