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[pigeon]

The tweet wasnt calling for hacking just release of the emails. I mean this is clearly a stupid thing to say, no need to exagerate to critisize Trump here.

The video was calling for the hack, the tweet didn't.

Concern troll somewhere else, we're all stocked up here.

 

[sangreal]

lost in the kerfuffle is that Trump claimed in the press conference he has never met or spoken to Putin. Which is true -- but he is on tape claiming the exact opposite during the primary

 

[remist]

We're not talking about the tweet, we're talking about what he said in the press conference.

That was in reference to people claiming he was doubling down with his tweet. The press conference was pretty clearly a poorly thought out joke.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

What's the likelihood Trump just goes, 'Heil Hydra' before shooting himself in the head after losing on election night?

I think we are, at least, closer to 50% than we are to zero.

Omg, where am i?

Am i drunk and no one told me? Is this the rapture? I feel like I'm still on the planet but the ones who escaped, they are truly blessed.

 

[Diablos]

If democrats had a likeable candidate this would be a cakewalk. Oh well. She can still get the win.

I feel you. I love Hillary but I think Biden or Kaine would be crushing it right now. Warren even. Sanders... maybe. The GOP used kid gloves on him for a reason; they didn't want to make him look bad until they would have been forced to. They would have attacked his ass so fast if he was the front runner on so many things. And I think his GE campaign would have been awful.

 

[gcubed]

I'm not sure we'd be seeing that Trump boost in the state polls, if there were any, though. Looking at the GA poll from the other day, and it might just be one poll, but it doesn't seem to be affected by the boost Trump's supposedly getting.

yup, the house effect is Nate hedging his bets because he got embarrassed and is now joked about all the time.

Nate has put punditry into his model, its fine, but it should stop being used as a sole source because its no longer just polls.

 

[eBay Huckster]

That was in reference to people claiming he was doubling down with his tweet. The press conference was pretty clearly a poorly thought out joke.

Yeah, bros! It was just a prank!

Do you actually read what you're typing right now?

 

[Crayons]

its just a prank bro

 

[remist]

The video was calling for the hack, the tweet didn't.

Concern troll somewhere else, we're all stocked up here.

I'm not a concern troll. I have to say, you pretty consistently refuse to engage with posters in good faith. I understand you are angry about Trump, but is all the name calling productive?

 

[VendettaRed07]

She's likable enough.

For now, luckily.

If she is elected though, she has to figure out, some way some how to pass through the legislation she is talking about. Massive infrastructure bill, college tuition reform, Immigration reform, minimum wage increase, modern glass steagal, gun control legislation, criminal justice reform.. etc.

She's gotta make good on a lot of these promises. The biggest obstacle she is working against right now is that many people think "It doesn't matter if she supports the things I want, when she's elected she'll just turn around and not do anything. She's just lying/pandering".

The only way to fix that is to prove people wrong and move things forward. There's nothing she can do to convince those people who distrust her or don't like her now, because all she can do until she's president is talk. Bill had high unfavorables before he won in 92, but turned it around massively in his first term by making good on a lot of what he campaigned on.

 

[Diablos]

Technically at best it's sedition. But we don't need to throw those words around.

Whatever. If a Democrat did this they'd be DONE. Overnight.

Sick of the double standard. Just sick and tired of it.

 

[Basileus777]

For now, luckily.

If she is elected though, she has to figure out, some way some how to pass through the legislation she is talking about. Massive infrastructure bill, college tuition reform, Immigration reform, minimum wage increase, modern glass steagal, gun control legislation, criminal justice reform.. etc.

She's gotta make good on a lot of these promises. The biggest obstacle she is working against right now is that many people think "It doesn't matter if she supports the things I want, when she's elected she'll just turn around and not do anything. She's just lying/pandering".

The only way to fix that is to prove people wrong and move things forward. There's nothing she can do to convince those people who distrust her or don't like her now, because all she can do until she's president is talk. Bill had high unfavorables before he won in 92, but turned it around massively in his first term by making good on a lot of what he campaigned on.

She's not getting any of that done because the Republicans will still control the House and will retake the Senate in 2018. Hillary won't have more tools to get things done than Obama has post 2010.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I will mourn the day someone out trumps trump.

 

[Brinbe]

 

[DataStream]

That was in reference to people claiming he was doubling down with his tweet. The press conference was pretty clearly a poorly thought out joke.

By this logic, his entire campaign has been a poorly thought out joke.

He is running for President; he doesn't get to throw around words without consequence.

 

[VendettaRed07]

She's not getting any of that done because the Republicans will still control the House and will retake the Senate in 2018.

Then she likely loses re-election if the GOP runs someone decently likeable like Kasich.

 

[Fenderputty]

The tweet wasnt calling for hacking just release of the emails. I mean this is clearly a stupid thing to say, no need to exagerate to critisize Trump here.

This is splitting the finest of hairs.

 

[User 463088]

I feel like I should have explained the likable enough thing....one of the few things Obama has ever done that was both tone deaf and managed to piss me off.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

This is the exact quote from his press conference.


Are we exaggerating?

Yeah. I mean where are they gonna find them? In their socks drawer?

 

[TumblingHippo]

Ah... the "lol joking bro why are you upset?" strategy. +5 poll points, success, welcome our new president

 

[Basileus777]

Then she likely loses re-election if the GOP runs someone decently likeable like Kasich.

The odds are that the Republicans will control the entire federal government come 2021.

 

[B-Dubs]

yup, the house effect is Nate hedging his bets because he got embarrassed and is now joked about all the time.

Nate has put punditry into his model, its fine, but it should stop being used as a sole source because its no longer just polls.

I mean, like I point out, it could well be there but we just have evidence of it either way. It's not crazy to think the national polling would equal a change in state polling, I'm just not sure we have enough evidence it's there at the moment. Personally I'd want more state polling before doing anything else.

 

[Iolo]

trump: will you go out with me
usa: no
trump: i was just joking anyway, i would never date someone so ugly

 

[IggyChooChoo]

Whatever. If a Democrat did this they'd be DONE. Overnight.

Sick of the double standard. Just sick and tired of it.

If falling 2-5 points behind for the rest of the race and losing by 7 on election night is what constitutes DONE in this polarized age, I think he may, in fact, be done.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Then she likely loses re-election if the GOP runs someone decently likeable like Kasich.

It's challenging to defeat an incumbent, and the demographics for the GOP aren't going to get any better

 

[remist]

By this logic, his entire campaign has been a poorly thought out joke.

He is running for President; he doesn't get to throw around words without consequence.

Dont disagree. It was reckless, but his intent was not to seriously call for Russian espionage and intent matters when you are throwing out words like sedition and treason

 

[VendettaRed07]

I feel like I should have explained the likable enough thing....one of the few things Obama has ever done that was both tone deaf and managed to piss me off.

Ah Right, I forgot about that line.

 

[hipsterpants]

Then she likely loses re-election if the GOP runs someone decently likeable like Kasich.

The odds are that the Republicans will control the entire federal government come 2021.

4 years is a long time. And Kasich couldn't even beat Cruz!

 

[Teggy]

Great.

Robby Soave
‏@robbysoave
When you slowly realize the Hillary guy giving interviews at the Bernie rally is actually conservative James O'Keefe

 

[Basileus777]

It's challenging to defeat an incumbent, and the demographics for the GOP aren't going to get any better

It's actually very difficult for a party to win 4 consecutive Presidential elections in the modern era. Incumbent Hillary would be highly vulnerable to a generic R.

4 years is a long time. And Kasich couldn't even beat Cruz!

It won't be Kasich. It doesn't need to be Kasich.

 

[gutter_trash]

She's likable enough.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It's actually very difficult for a party to win 4 consecutive Presidential elections in the modern era.

Where does the GOP pick up demographics from?

 

[pigeon]

I'm not a concern troll. I have to say, you pretty consistently refuse to engage with posters in good faith. I understand you are angry about Trump, but is all the name calling productive?

As we've discussed I think a couple days ago in this thread, political science says yes.

I think I engage with a lot of posters in good faith. In this case, like, if you're saying the press conference was obviously just a joke, as I said to stump, you're in disagreement with every major media outlet and the former CIA director, so I don't think your position is very reasonable at all.

 

[BotoxAgent]

For now, luckily.

If she is elected though, she has to figure out, some way some how to pass through the legislation she is talking about. Massive infrastructure bill, college tuition reform, Immigration reform, minimum wage increase, modern glass steagal, gun control legislation, criminal justice reform.. etc.

She's gotta make good on a lot of these promises. The biggest obstacle she is working against right now is that many people think "It doesn't matter if she supports the things I want, when she's elected she'll just turn around and not do anything. She's just lying/pandering".

The only way to fix that is to prove people wrong and move things forward. There's nothing she can do to convince those people who distrust her or don't like her now, because all she can do until she's president is talk. Bill had high unfavorables before he won in 92, but turned it around massively in his first term by making good on a lot of what he campaigned on.

people need to vote in midterms

too bad the whiney uber progressive pool of people who want big changes and are never happy with Democratic policies are too lazy to vote and equip our congress people with the means to enact such changes

 

[The Lamonster]

She's likable enough.

I understood this reference.

 

[DataStream]

Then she likely loses re-election if the GOP runs someone decently likeable like Kasich.

The GOP needs to do a pretty huge purge of crazies for that to happen.

 

[Basileus777]

Where does the GOP pick up demographics from?

A generic R would probably be solidly ahead of Hillary right now, in 4 years that isn't going to change. Demographics are only insurmountable if you assume that no Democrat could be trailing nationally.

 

[Loudninja]

TV Ratings: Bill Clinton Boosts Democratic National Convention Night 2 Over RNC

The second night of the Democratic National Convention scored big with NBC in preliminary ratings. The Peacock drew 5.46 million total viewers and a 1.3 rating in the advertiser-coveted 18-49 demographic during the 10 p.m. hour, more than the demo average for ABC and CBS’ coverage combined. ABC weighed in with 3.43 million and a 0.7; CBS with 2.51 million and a 0.4. That means 11.4 million tuned in to either of those three nets to see former president and possible future First Gentleman Bill Clinton deliver a lengthy speech in praise of official Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton, with a 2.4 demo rating in total.

Like the first night of DNC coverage on the broadcast nets, that beats out its Republican National Convention counterpart. Last week’s RNC night two drew 10.1 million total viewers and a 2.1 demo rating in the early ratings.

http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/dem...two-bill-clinton-speech-beats-rnc-1201824474/

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I feel like I should have explained the likable enough thing....one of the few things Obama has ever done that was both tone deaf and managed to piss me off.

I always found that comment meta-interesting because it was a slip of discipline--he wasn't *quite* polished enough at that point in the campaign. It was some un-Presidential snark that he learned to temper.

 

[User 463088]

Something happier.

 

[gcubed]

A generic R would probably be solidly ahead of Hillary right now, in 4 years that isn't going to change. Demographics are only insurmountable if you assume that no Democrat could be trailing nationally.

thats great, i wish them well finding Generic R to put on the ballot and vote for!

 

[remist]

As we've discussed I think a couple days ago in this thread, political science says yes.

I think I engage with a lot of posters in good faith. In this case, like, if you're saying the press conference was obviously just a joke, as I said to stump, you're in disagreement with every major media outlet and the former CIA director, so I don't think your position is very reasonable at all.

So I disagree with the consensus opinion and that's enough evidence for you to declare me a concern troll?

 

[BlastProcessing]

The tweet wasnt calling for hacking just release of the emails. I mean this is clearly a stupid thing to say, no need to exagerate to critisize Trump here.

The emails aren't missing. They were deleted from Clinton's server, but the FBI forensically reconstructed them, The only place we know those emails exist right now is on the FBI's servers.

 

[VendettaRed07]

It's challenging to defeat an incumbent, and the demographics for the GOP aren't going to get any better

I think we will see major dissent amongst Democrats towards Hilary if nothing major is accomplished. People really want change and I don't know if Republican obstruction will work for much longer. Turn out will probably be pretty low and apathy will be high. She'll be an incumbent but it'll be a bit different because it will be framed as a third term rather than the first. Hillary's entire campaign is she is going to "get stuff done". Not getting anything done I think we'll see similar backlash like when Papa Bush promised "No new taxes", and then raised them anyway

 

[hawk2025]

I'm not a concern troll. I have to say, you pretty consistently refuse to engage with posters in good faith. I understand you are angry about Trump, but is all the name calling productive?

Man, you can say that about so many people, and you pick pigeon!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

A generic R would probably be solidly ahead of Hillary right now, in 4 years that isn't going to change. Demographics are only insurmountable if you assume that no Democrat could be trailing nationally.

The reason a generic R does well is because it's a generic R. It has no faults beyond just being Republican.

In reality, the GOP lacks anyone without major issues that alienate blocks of voters

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Also, let's not waste breath gaming out 2020. If she's elected, her re-election will have fuck-all to do with the perception of her in 2016 and everything to do with her four years as President.

 

[BlastProcessing]

"Mr Putin, tear down that firewall"

 

[Basileus777]

The reason a generic R does well is because it's a generic R. It has no faults beyond just being Republican.

In reality, the GOP lacks anyone without major issues that alienate blocks of voters

Eh, even someone like Rubio could very well have won this year. If they can get a Romneyesque candidate they should be favored in 2020. I don't think Cruz is getting the nomination and the Republican establishment could get someone through that's good enough to beat her.

 

[Oblivion]

Bam (Gallup)

Only 38% of people were less inclined to support Republicans after Clint Eastwood's chair chat? That's actually quite impressive.