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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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BlastProcessing
Member
It's hard to align 2016 with 2012 because the Conventions happened at very different times. Trump is getting his bounce long before Romney did.
Yeah, and Obama should include in his statements "Until we can figure out whats going on"
balladofwindfishes
Member
I wonder if Paul Ryan is sobbing on his cot in his office right now.
Gotcha, I hope they move on this. I don't care what party you identify with statements like this are completely unacceptable.
TestOfTide
Banned
I think this is going to be another "Judge Curiel" moment for Trump. I remember that right after the comments on the judge, Hillary's lead widened a lot.
This is another moment where:
- Every news organization finds the comments reprehensible
- GOP members are forced to condemn what Trump said, even if they refuse to reverse their endorsement
- There is no Hillary news to undermine this coverage, because the DNC hack, while bad news, immediately ties to Trump's comments
I'm expecting Hillary to get back to around a 6-8 point lead in the polls.
"He's a racist, treasonous buffoon, but he's OUR racist, treasonous buffoon."
This is another moment where:
- Every news organization finds the comments reprehensible
- GOP members are forced to condemn what Trump said, even if they refuse to reverse their endorsement
- There is no Hillary news to undermine this coverage, because the DNC hack, while bad news, immediately ties to Trump's comments
I'm expecting Hillary to get back to around a 6-8 point lead in the polls.
"He's a racist, treasonous buffoon, but he's OUR racist, treasonous buffoon."
User 463088
Banned
Foreign policy.
Guessing FP is foreign policy.
DataStream
Member
If handled properly and with the vigor that the GOP would if this was a Dem making that kind of statement, this should be the end of his fucking campaign.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Exactly. If the democrats were anywhere near as skilled as republicans in this area, Hillary would be up 10 points by the end of August.
minor effort
Banned
Although I think this will be a bigger deal to many Republicans than the Judge Curiel comments. We all know that Republicans can wave away or minimize racist comments made by a fellow Republican, but this and the NATO comments are extreme national security concerns.
Holy fucking shit. If Republicans don't at the very least denounce this shit forcefully, they will be unequivocal hypocrites. They shat all over Obama for not storming in to Crimea and battle the Ruskies. Fuck this shit. I'm fucking speechless at how far Trump has gone in fondling Putin's balls:
- Will recognize Crimea as Russian and will lift sanctions
- Invites Russia to hack Clinton's server
- Praises Putin
- Won't criticize Putin when asked about him
- Won't even denounce the act of a foreign government hacking an American political party
- His campaign manager was Yanukovich's Chief of staff and helped multiple oligarchs in Russia
- His finance team has multiple people who have extensive Russian ties
- He has multiple investments in Russia
WHAT THE FLYING FUCK ARE WE DOING PEOPLE?!?!?
Yep.
Random +6 Trump House effect = actually a 2-4 point boost for Trump, and that's because the state polls were done before the RNC as well as the FBI dump in many cases, and the national polls have shown a strong shift towards Trump in that time frame. Ergo; it is logical to assume that polls taken before these events are probably more Dem leaning than the current situation.
Once the DNC happens, you will see a shift back towards Clinton, and once the first set of state polls that are taken in August come out, you'll see that same model that makes no sense start to make sense most likely. But that's the point of the model. Also - this election is way closer than everyone thinks. Even after the expected DNC bump.
It hurts him even if he says it was just a joke since his conspiracy-theory-believing base would want him to do anything to get those "secret" emails out there.
He'd also have to "back down" on something, which would make him look weak.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
If you are trying to convince people on the fence I would avoid the word "treason." That's the kind of hyperbole that makes people stop listening to you.
Words have meaning, especially when you're running for president. You don't get to say "lol just kidding guys". Remember when Hillary said, with regards to wiping her server, "what, like with a cloth?" and Republicans hit her for it? It is he same deal hear.
Also, he tweeted the same sentiments after already making the statement.
BlastProcessing
Member
Technically it's sedition. He doubled down on twitter, he is not joking.
He actually called on Russia to spy on Clinton. He has done it twice.
minor effort
Banned
He said it out loud, likely had time to be reminded by his staff that it was a bad idea to joke about it, tweeted the same thing some time afterward.
Again, I see two explanations: he's being dangerously, willfully malicious at worst, or at best just dangerously stupid. Both of which are a grave risk to have in the Oval Office.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
TestOfTide
Banned
But even IF it was a joke, it's the kind of joke a presidential candidate should never make.
This would be like if Trump "joked" about wanting his rally people assaulting protesters.
User 463088
Banned
I still think there are some issues with his model this year. Look at NC. Trump has a greater than 60% chance of winning the state, even though there hasnt been a poll of him leading the state since May. He is weighting a poll from MARCH more heavily than polls from May and June. It's weird.
I'm not sure we'd be seeing that Trump boost in the state polls, if there were any, though. Looking at the GA poll from the other day, and it might just be one poll, but it doesn't seem to be affected by the boost Trump's supposedly getting.
Can we drop this "it was a joke" bullshit. This isn't joke the is a presidential candidate for a major party asking a foreign government to commit espionage against a political opponent. Enough is enough this shit isn't a joke and it's not funny.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I think asking people that question is part of the problem. Some people may be swayed but not want to admit to being swayed (or may not even be conscious of it).
VendettaRed07
Member
Good point as well. I know it doesn't quiet feel like that long ago, but it's been 12 years since the GOP won Florida, and the demographics have changed a lot since then. Growing Puerto Rican population should definitely be a factor. Locking down Florida long term would be massive going forward.
Think we should probably spend more money in Florida than any other state. Trump has to pull off a lot of electoral gymnastics to make up for it.
Which is why it was also incredibly smart of Hillary to pick Kaine as VP to help solidify the Virginia. It was a great chess move to take that off the table. the GOP having to work around losing Florida, Virginia and Colorado is an incredibly tough game.
I agree that the Dems should avoid the word treason like the plague when talking about this. The GOP has used it so much with Hillary that it'll instantly turn off voters who think Clinton got off on treason is now just hurling the same insult at her opponent. Even if it fits, it is hyperbolic.
Dangerous ties to Russian, cheerleading Putin, scary admiration for our adversaries are all much safer.
Dangerous ties to Russian, cheerleading Putin, scary admiration for our adversaries are all much safer.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Bam (Gallup)
Hoo boy, when this bump subsides it's going to be brutal. He may end up lower than he started
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bam (Gallup)
If democrats had a likeable candidate this would be a cakewalk. Oh well. She can still get the win.
User 463088
Banned
She's likable enough.
whyamihere
Banned
It was a pretty meh bump, but it was the week after Hillary had one of her worst weeks of her campaign.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
But if the reception to the rnc was negative, why is he still getting a bump?Bam (Gallup)
User 463088
Banned
And did the magical email fairy just hand them to the Russians?
Yo fam, isn't this treason?
He can't get away with this. He's advocating for a foreign nation to hack the US/expose info from prior hacks.
This makes him look bad but I don't appreciate it eating into our super awesome unified convention coverage.
Fuck the GOP. They are responsible for this shitshow and did not have a care in the world to do anything about it.
He can't get away with this. He's advocating for a foreign nation to hack the US/expose info from prior hacks.
This makes him look bad but I don't appreciate it eating into our super awesome unified convention coverage.
Fuck the GOP. They are responsible for this shitshow and did not have a care in the world to do anything about it.
User 463088
Banned
Bumps are more often about increased response rates and a rallying effect. That's why they're usually pretty temporary. Hillary also had a shitty week going into the RNC.
User 463088
Banned
Technically at best it's sedition. But we don't need to throw those words around.
Good news about Florida. Although, I would need to track down these stories, but there were reports a month or two ago that the Clinton camps strategy was to essentially lock Florida down. Kaine is going to be very good in this regard. A Hispanic VP would have been better, but this is almost as good. She is going to park his ass at Univisions head quarters for the next couple of months. They know how important Florida is just not in this election, but in the years to come. I feel like I'm sounding like a broken record, but the game in the next few months is to pin Trump as the Republican party. By that I mean that they need to show that it's not just Trump that is anti Hispanic, but the entire Republican party. It won't be the hardest thing to do either since it's the truth. If they can be successful especially in Florida I don't see how Republicans as they are now ever win another presidency moving forward.
Probably got accidentally forwarded to them. Like, someone meant to email Rusty Jones and wrote RUS in outlook and it auto-filled with Russianhacker@totallynotPutinonashow.ru
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
We're not talking about the tweet, we're talking about what he said in the press conference.
Meant to buy Gucci, clicked on Guccifer2
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