Support NeoGAF

[User 463088]

Only 38% of people were less inclined to support Republicans after Clint Eastwood's chair chat? That's actually quite impressive.

To be fair, a large swath of the GOPs base spends hours yelling at empty chairs, clouds, small children, etc

 

[pigeon]

So I disagree with the consensus opinion and that's enough evidence for you to declare me a concern troll?

Your posts on the topic also demonstrate that you're offering an opinion based on an incomplete understanding of the event.

Calling you a concern troll was probably unfair. If you have a genuine argument for why people are overreacting to this, which engages with the actual events and the expert/media response, I'd be happy to hear it.

 

[RustyNails]

The video was calling for the hack, the tweet didn't.

Concern troll somewhere else, we're all stocked up here.

We know Manafort has a leash on his twitter handle so of course its a little measured. Trump's mouth though. No one can control that gaping orange hole.

 

[Cybit]

I still think there are some issues with his model this year. Look at NC. Trump has a greater than 60% chance of winning the state, even though there hasnt been a poll of him leading the state since May. He is weighting a poll from MARCH more heavily than polls from May and June. It's weird.

I think Q-Pac being so damn good in 2012 and what appears to be way off this year is screwing with his model hardcore, and will continue to do so until the end of the campaign (where he can reassess grades).

I'm not sure we'd be seeing that Trump boost in the state polls, if there were any, though. Looking at the GA poll from the other day, and it might just be one poll, but it doesn't seem to be affected by the boost Trump's supposedly getting.

Which is really the issue people are having. In lieu of other evidence, historically, national polls tend to correlate to changes in state polls. But if you have a situation where deep red GOP holdouts are coming back to Trump, then you may not see one. But until you get polls to confirm that; the correct thing to do is to stick with the historical trends until proven otherwise. To assume that wasn't the case this year would be punditry.

 

[Oblivion]

"Mr Putin, tear down that firewall"

Gonna steal this if you don't mind.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

She's likable enough.

I see what you did here.

I feel like I should have responded with a JPG of Obama smiling sardonically.

I think that Hillary is pretty well-liked by quite a few people, actually. I think her likability is often understated.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Also, let's not waste breath gaming out 2020. If she's elected, her re-election will have fuck-all to do with the perception of her in 2016 and everything to do with her four years as President.

I thought it was worth bringing up because it has more to do with how she would improve her favorables, and "trustworthy" numbers. I don't think there is anything she can do about it now. Her numbers are bad now, but luckily enough to win this cycle. Going forward, it's probably noteworthy that Bill had pretty low numbers and was a controversial nominee in 1992, but his performance and accomplishments turned it around his first term. Hillary just has to figure out a way to do the same.

 

[BiggNife]

It's way too early to even think about 2020

Remember in 2012 people thought Jeb! actually had a chance and trump was unquestionably a joke

 

[hipsterpants]

There is much to be seen if the GOP can get an actual decent candidate as the nominee in 2020 as well. Their "rising stars" have all been flops and their top two candidates in this year, their BIG chance to take over, were Donald Trump and the zodiac killer. Until they can get someone decent that doesn't implode within like half a year of being mentioned I remain skeptical.

I'm pretty sure the Dems already have a deeper bench for 2024 than the GOP has for 2020.

 

[eBay Huckster]

we're almost at the point where i'm sure the dems have a deeper bench for 2032 than the GOP has for 2020

 

[BlastProcessing]

Gonna steal this if you don't mind.

Go for it. I am sure that many other people will get to that joke as well.

 

[TheFatOne]

There is much to be seen if the GOP can get an actual decent candidate as the nominee in 2020 as well. Their "rising stars" have all been flops and their top two candidates in this year, their BIG chance to take over, were Donald Trump and the zodiac killer. Until they can get someone decent that doesn't implode within like half a year of being mentioned I remain skeptical.

I'm pretty sure the Dems already have a deeper bench for 2024 than the GOP has for 2020.

It won't matter if they get someone decent in 2020 given how they are poisoning the well with Hispanic voters. Fine get a decent candidate then. How does it solve the demographic problem they have? Especially after Trump.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

It's way too early to even think about 2020

Remember in 2015 people thought Jeb! actually had a chance and trump was unquestionably a joke

Fixed that for you. 2020 is a million years from now politically.

 

[studyguy]

I want off Putin's wild ride.

 

[Oblivion]

https://twitter.com/scontorno/status/758329435024134148?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hahaha.

edit: wait, this was some other NJ governor, not Christie. Argh. Less funny now.

 

[Basileus777]

It won't matter if they get someone decent in 2020 given how they are poisoning the well with Hispanic voters. Fine get a decent candidate then. How does it solve the demographic problem they have? Especially after Trump.

You're presuming that it would be a close election 2004 style. A Republican leading an unpopular Democratic incumbent by 4-5 points nationally would win anyway. Democrats shouldn't be buying into some myth that they can't be beaten in the electoral college because of demographics.

 

[RustyNails]

That LA Times poll is nuts

 

[Brinbe]

12 years ago today, Obama's speech at the 04 DNC. Still a fucking masterclass.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0

I remember watching this live on CSPAN as a 17-year-old and losing my damn mind... Instant Obama stan lol. Amazing to see how far he's come since then.

 

[thebloo]

I still think there are some issues with his model this year. Look at NC. Trump has a greater than 60% chance of winning the state, even though there hasnt been a poll of him leading the state since May. He is weighting a poll from MARCH more heavily than polls from May and June. It's weird.

My problem with the model is that it cu shows Hillary winning the popular vote and losing the Electoral. Which is basically impossible based on what demographics show.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

My one concern about this, is that it's keeping the email thing in the news.

 

[remist]

Your posts on the topic also demonstrate that you're offering an opinion based on an incomplete understanding of the event.

Calling you a concern troll was probably unfair. If you have a genuine argument for why people are overreacting to this, which engages with the actual events and the expert/media response, I'd be happy to hear it.

I've listened to the comment.I know the context of his other Russian connections. If I'm missing something important let me know, but the tone and context in this instance is clearly not serious. The media and experts are taking for granted that he was serious and I don't see any special insight from them that makes their judgement more solid than anyone else's, You are just apealing to authority.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

That LA Times poll is nuts

I'm sure Ras will find a way to top it.

 

[Lmo911]

A generic R would probably be solidly ahead of Hillary right now, in 4 years that isn't going to change. Demographics are only insurmountable if you assume that no Democrat could be trailing nationally.

The problem is that a Generic R may win, but they can't survive the primary. To get the nod you have to survive the crucible and by then the Generic R has had to make some comment to curry favor that the rest of the country is decidedly against. It happen to McCain and Romney. Both of them in a vacuum are electable, but they both had to make choices that gave them the nomination but ruined their chances in the general.

The other factor against Generic R is that the party decided they needed to move even farther right than they were because of those two losses.

Generic R should change parties if it wants a chance at winning.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

So when are the debates going to take place?

 

[Spiritreaver]

Meh.

 

[Fenderputty]

I have no idea how anyone can say Pigeon argues in poor faith. Let alone "consistently"

 

[Basileus777]

The problem is that a Generic R may win, but they can't survive the primary. To get the nod you have to survive the crucible and by then the Generic R has had to make some comment to curry favor that the rest of the country is decidedly against. It happen to McCain and Romney. Both of them in a vacuum are electable, but they both had to make choices that gave them the nomination but ruined their chances in the general.

The other factor against Generic R is that the party decided they needed to move even farther right than they were because of those two losses.

Generic R should change parties if it wants a chance at winning.

Perhaps generic R is the wrong term, but even post primary Republicans could do it as long as they aren't Trump or Cruz. Romney would win this year.

 

[pigeon]

I've listened to the comment.I know the context of his other Russian connections. If I'm missing something important let me know, but the tone and context in this instance is clearly not serious. The media and experts are taking for granted that he was serious and I don't see any special insight from them that makes their judgement more solid than anyone else's, You are just apealing to authority.

Appealing to authority is fine in the absence of a logical argument one way or another. It's only a fallacy if it substitutes for a logical argument.

But there is no logical argument here, which you implicitly understand since you didn't make one either. Your argument is an appeal to the authority of your own opinion!

But even leaving all that aside, "he was just joking about asking Russia to hack us" is also crazy. We should make an effort to stop normalizing Trump's behavior. He is well outside the bounds of any other presidential candidate ever, and he's still got momentum.

 

[RustyNails]

I have no idea how anyone can say Pigeon argues in poor faith. Let alone "consistently"

Didn't we crown pigeon as president of poligaf recently?

 

[eBay Huckster]

12 years ago today, Obama's speech at the 04 DNC. Still a fucking masterclass.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0

I remember watching this live on CSPAN as a 17-year-old and losing my damn mind... Instant Obama stan lol. Amazing to see how far he's come since then.

the audio's ridiculously out of sync on that and it's pissing me off

 

[remist]

I have no idea how anyone can say Pigeon argues in poor faith. Let alone "consistently"

He responded to my good intentioned post with the accusation that I was a concern troll and his post history is filled with sarcastically calling people nazi and white nationalist supporters. He may normaly act in good faith. Just my experience.

 

[Fenderputty]

Didn't we crown pigeon as president of poligaf recently?

I don't know. If I had as cool of a head as Pigeon does when arguing I wouldn't have been banned for two months haha.

 

[Iolo]

He responded to my good intentioned post with the accusation that I was a concern troll and his post history is filled with sarcastically calling people nazi and white nationalist supporters. He may normaly act in good faith. Just my experience.

Sarcastically?

 

[Geg]

I can't believe there's still nearly 3 and a half months left until the election. How much more ridiculous can we get?

 

[thestopsign]

I'm sure Ras will find a way to top it.

Trump +15. CrossTabs reveal vast undersampling of women, the 18-29 age group, and minority voters.

 

[nature boy]

TVNewserVerified account
‏@tvnewser
Chris Wallace gets first post-nomination intvu with @HillaryClinton for @FoxNewsSunday

Why?

 

[Maengun1]

I feel you. I love Hillary but I think Biden or Kaine would be crushing it right now. Warren even. Sanders... maybe. The GOP used kid gloves on him for a reason; they didn't want to make him look bad until they would have been forced to. They would have attacked his ass so fast if he was the front runner on so many things. And I think his GE campaign would have been awful.

Despite all the continuing -- even escalating -- drama surrounding Hillary lately (which DOES have me worrying), I still think she is and was the far better GE candidate as compared to Sanders. It would take a truly Earth-shattering real scandal to come up to change my mind on that. I don't think Bernie plays well with the GE crowd at all, and I don't think he ran a good primary campaign at all. Very sloppy. He's got his base of supporters and damn if they aren't vocal, but I don't see him getting to 50 million+ in November. I just don't...not in this climate.

The thing with me is, I like Hillary, I think she'll be a good Pres, and I've been defending her all year.....but I really was hoping she wouldn't run again, personally, just because I saw all this drama coming. But here we are, so nothing to do but run with it.

edit: And I do think a ~significant~ (not sure what % exactly) amount of the Hillary hate is just actual misogyny for the first woman running in the GE campaign, and I think Hillary is better suited to weather that hit than most, so ... good to like....get through that shitstorm with her? If that makes sense.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I also find the treason/sedition comments extremely hyperbolic. Trump's behavior is idiotic and disgusting, but being an idiot and making an awful joke is not treason/sedition. We can castigate Trump to hell and back on what he's done without any exaggeration needed.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Jill Stein wants to end fractional reserve banking (by accident) so she's earned Huelen's vote:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox...s_not_the_savior_the_left_is_looking_for.html

 

[B-Dubs]

Jill Stein wants to end fractional reserve banking (by accident) so she's earned Huelen's vote:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox...s_not_the_savior_the_left_is_looking_for.html

I like the title of that article. She is horrible.

 

[greatgeek]

Why?

They're just inviting FNC to set the dialogue back a month, and undo this week's positive cycle.

 

[Fenderputty]

Sarcastically?

Heh.

 

[banktree]

So when are the debates going to take place?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...16-general-election-debate-schedule/81238502/


The Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Sept. 23, 2015, the schedule for three 2016 presidential debates and one vice presidential.

The current schedule is:

First presidential debate: Monday, Sept. 26, 2016, at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

The first debate will consist of six 15-minute segments selected by the moderator and announced ahead of the debate.

Vice presidential debate: Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016, at Longwood University in Farmville, Va.

The vice presidential debate will be divided into nine 10-minute segments.

Second presidential debate: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016, at Washington University in St. Louis

The second presidential debate will be a town meeting, where half of the questions will come from participants and the other from the moderator. The moderator's questions will be based on public interest topics determined via social media and other sources.

Third presidential debate: Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016 at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas

The third presidential debate will have the same format as the first, with six 15-minute segments.

 

[Plinko]

Why?

Ugh. Makes zero sense to me.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

I also find the treason/sedition comments extremely hyperbolic. Trump's behavior is idiotic and disgusting, but being an idiot and making an awful joke is not treason/sedition. We can castigate Trump to hell and back on what he's done without any exaggeration necessary.

I think it is fair to say that Trump appears to sympathize with Putin, a foreign dictator, more than he does with Hillary Clinton. And now he is publicly asking for that foreign dictator's help to win an election. I agree that to call that treason or sedition is an exaggeration; but in terms of raw feeling, he has crossed a line that is very unusual and disturbing for a presidential candidate, whatever your views.

 

[B-Dubs]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...16-general-election-debate-schedule/81238502/


The Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Sept. 23, 2015, the schedule for three 2016 presidential debates and one vice presidential.

The current schedule is:

First presidential debate: Monday, Sept. 26, 2016, at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

The first debate will consist of six 15-minute segments selected by the moderator and announced ahead of the debate.

Vice presidential debate: Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016, at Longwood University in Farmville, Va.

The vice presidential debate will be divided into nine 10-minute segments.

Second presidential debate: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016, at Washington University in St. Louis

The second presidential debate will be a town meeting, where half of the questions will come from participants and the other from the moderator. The moderator's questions will be based on public interest topics determined via social media and other sources.

Third presidential debate: Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016 at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas

The third presidential debate will have the same format as the first, with six 15-minute segments.

I gotta see if I can somehow grab a ticket to the Hofstra debate.

 

[User 463088]

AP Planner ‏@AP_Planner 1h1 hour ago
Tomorrow: Supporters of Bernie Sanders plan to hold a 'fart-in' at the Democratic National Convention to protest the party's primary process

GOOD NEWS!

It's still on.

 

[plagiarize]

Hey everyone. I'm back from my vacation camping amongst the trees in Washington state.

What the fuck did you guys do? Everything was peachy keen before I walked off into the woods. Jesus people.

 

[Teggy]

Scottie Nell Hughes just said Freddie Gray got up in the back of the police van and threw himself around and killed himself.

 

[univariate]

Scottie Nell Hughes is the biggest cunt on TV.

edit: fuck where's the remote. This woman is fucking unbearable.