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[thestopsign]

Anyway, the Nintendo NX sounds like a really bad idea. Super Vita+Nintendo first party+TV output... is still a system that does badly.

*Off-Topic Alert* I don't care what the system is. Knowing Nintendo will be focusing their creative efforts on one platform gives me happy thoughts. Also the system will be at least able to run Breath of the Wild, which is sufficient for me.

 

[Teggy]

What did she say?

I assume he's talking about this:

Scottie Nell Hughes just said Freddie Gray got up in the back of the police van and threw himself around and killed himself.

 

[B-Dubs]

It doesn't really matter what he says as long as it vaguely reflects what the kind of people who vote for the GOP are thinking.

If there's actually a thing Trump can say that will doom him, its going to be a "47%" video where he doesn't have a meaningful option to double-down on it. Do I think there's going to be a tape of Trump calling Obama an N-word that conveniently leaks in October? Yes, probably. Whether he specifically says that or something equally as offensive, I don't know, but you have to remember this all started with the unfounded and demonstrably incorrect accusation that the President of the United States was an African imposter.

I still expect him to call Hillary a bitch in a debate.

 

[Abinash117]

The reason Donald Trump seemingly gets away with essentially every possible political gaffe is because this election has exposed the fact that there are people who will vote for any warm body so long as the correct letter is in the parenthesis next to their name. Given that fact, he has correctly deduced it doesn't actually matter what he says as long as his name is in the news.

It is still very possible that a lot of people don't end up turning out to support him in the election day. Most of his support will probably be in the south and parts of the Midwest which is still pretty big in terms of electorate, everywhere else including in swing states might not have a good turnout for him.

 

[Brinbe]

That's a pretty big point to make, especially with national polling. We have to see where his support is coming from. Running up the score in the red states doesn't do anything for him.

 

[Cybit]

One thing:

Hey Trumpy..?

Thanks for taking the heat off of that McAuliffe comment. Brilliant!

I know - that McAuliffe quote could have restarted the Bernie brush fire again.

 

[The Lamonster]

I still expect him to call Hillary a bitch in a debate.

He will bring up Bill's infidelity and call her ugly, at least once. Probably in every debate.

 

[User 463088]

That's a pretty big point to make, especially with national polling. We have to see where his support is coming from. Running up the score in the red states doesn't do anything for him.

Arguably, they should be doing some regional balancing. BUT, I do think the popular vote is always going to appear closer than the electoral vote.

He is going to have insane margins in places like Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Idaho, etc. It doesn't help him if he wins by 10 or 30, but I think that's where a lot of his support is coming from.

 

[sc0la]

AP Planner ‏@AP_Planner 1h1 hour ago
Tomorrow: Supporters of Bernie Sanders plan to hold a 'fart-in' at the Democratic National Convention to protest the party's primary process

GOOD NEWS!

It's still on.

Sweet my proposed thread subtitle of:
BernBusters 2: Silenced but Deadly
is still in play.

 

[nature boy]

Political Polls ‏@Politics_Polls 12m12 minutes ago
National GE Among Latinos:
Clinton 77% (+61)
Trump 16
@newlatinovoice/@FIU/@Adsmovil 7/18-25

http://latinousa.org/2016/07/27/trump-gets-5-bump-post-convention-latino-voter-tracking-poll/

And the USC poll has him at over 30 with hispanics...

 

[Black Mamba]

That's a pretty big point to make, especially with national polling. We have to see where his support is coming from. Running up the score in the red states doesn't do anything for him.

it's interesting..and something i've been wondering after gallup bungled their polling 4 years ago by oversampling the South.

When we say an N = 1000 gets you to 3-4% margin of error with the size of our population..that's correct. But...that also kind of assumed random distribution but in reality, the country isn't like that.

You have the Coasts and NE, Midwest, and South. And the west coast and South are heavily one way over another.

So if you randomly get way too many people from one area...and don't re-adjust on location...it's a problem. See, pollsters weight on demographics and such, but not geographic location (to my knowledge).

And that's why state polling is so much better than the national polling (the geographic location variable is mostly gone).

Either weighting needs to change or the N has to go higher. Very often pollsters don't post geographic location in their crosstabs, too.

Gallup had Obama winning NE, MW, and coasts but had Romney up large because the South was so heavily pro Romney and so heavily represented in proportion to their actual voting representation.

 

[RustyNails]

http://latinousa.org/2016/07/27/trump-gets-5-bump-post-convention-latino-voter-tracking-poll/

And the USC poll has him at over 30 with hispanics...

The biggest eye opener in LAT/USC poll with +7 Trump is that is shows 18-34 year olds solidly crossing from blue to red over this past month. Its impossible to understand. Pigeon recently mentioned wrt a different poll is a potential oversampling of that age group particularly from the lower middle class uneducated group. Maybe that's the trend, but again it means squat without gotv effort. Thats why i think that a stringent LV field is an absolute must this electio (USC poll didn't have one, and instead relied on subjective probability).

 

[jmood88]

That Freddie Gray threw himself around the back of the police van. That she knew 100% that this is what happened. And the people who should be on trial are Obama and the Attorney General for making the riots happen.

It was a mess.

And I believe that it was the same woman who pulled an #AllSexesMatter this morning and complained about how the focus on women made her upset because she was hoping that they'd talk about how Hillary being the first nominee for a major party would make her son feel like he could do anything.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I usually just leave the polling stuff to Nate Silver because I can't pretend to understand it and if I tried I'm pretty sure I'd sound like the Liberal Dean Chambers.

 

[Link]

To continue my thoughts: In regards to the press, at this point, being "impartial" means being complicit.

 

[BotoxAgent]

*scratches head*

I need labels bruh

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I'll say it again, the argument that "it is obviously a joke" simply does not hold water. You need to mount a better argument than "duh" to be convincing here. It did not seem like a joke to me or several major media outlets or the former CIA director.

We ran into the same kind of issue when Hillary responded to the server wipe question by saying "with a cloth or something?". It was a terrible joke to make, gave all the wrong impressions, treated substantive issues as trivial, but ultimately we knew she wasn't being serious because she laughs, and follows up with "I don't know how it works digitally". Trump talks in a very unusual way that is very 'stream of consciousness' so we don't get the same markers but to me, the way its suddenly inserted into this long rambling answer, how it ends with saying the media would reward them, the "if you're listening" thing is a standard line in NSA style jokes, that to me suggests he's trying to contrast the current media coverage with how (he thinks) they would act if the 'missing emails' were found by the Russians and not an actual invitation to hacking.

The media is not an objective barometer for interpretation of people's speaking patterns and has competing motivations in how they depict stories. The former CIA director is also a former Clinton Chief of Staff, at the end of the day we can't really say he's more of an expert in interpreting Trump's speech patterns than Newt Gingrich. Of course, people on the conservative side have a vested interest in defending Trump (particularly Newt) just as people on the liberal side have an interest in destroying him (for good reasons though).

Trump is a complete and utter idiot but that doesn't mean we have to assume everything he says is 100% serious; if anything we should be conditioned to assume he's going to say increasingly outrageous and ridiculous things like any other troll. I'm not condoning that behavior as being any better than actually meaning it, it is still disgusting and wrong, but I'm also not going to interpret every thing that comes out of Trump's mouth as a serious policy proposal regardless of context.

If we're just going to say that Trump is so crazy that it's impossible to discern what's a joke versus a serious policy proposal, well sure, I could be sympathetic to that. But I feel pretty comfortable saying that wasn't intended seriously given the context of the entire rambling answer. Just because Trump is a horrible human being doesn't mean he's always going to be horrible 100% of the time; even a Trump is "stupid-right" twice a day.

 

[TestOfTide]

That Freddie Gray threw himself around the back of the police van. That she knew 100% that this is what happened. And the people who should be on trial are Obama and the Attorney General for making the riots happen.

It was a mess.

Freddie Gray killed himself, it's all black people's fault, blah blah blah.

Trump's already basically at zero percent with us anyway. At this point, I hear so much racist shit about folks like Freddie Gray that it doesn't even faze me. I'm like, throw another one on the pile.

Holy shit that's dumb. Please tell me someone called her out in response. I know it's CNN, but the last two nights had Jeff humiliated by the panels.

 

[Teggy]

*scratches head*

I need labels bruh

The labels are right there, those people are criminals, rapists and terrorists, duh.

 

[Fuchsdh]

The biggest eye opener in LAT/USC poll with +7 Trump is that is shows 18-34 year olds solidly crossing from blue to red over this past month. Its impossible to understand. Pigeon recently mentioned wrt a different poll is a potential oversampling of that age group particularly from the lower middle class uneducated group. Maybe that's the trend, but again it means squat without gotv effort. Thats why i think that a stringent LV field is an absolute must this electio (USC poll didn't have one, and instead relied on subjective probability).

I wouldn't be that surprised. t've come to the personal realization that for all the talk about how progressive my generation is, by and large it seems like our only redeeming value is we're fine with gay people. Other than that, we want our college loans forgiven, and to smoke weed. And black people are fine, too, but we'd rather go to rallies and instagram that than support those causes at the local and state polls. But sure, we'll share "our dad's generation fucked everything up" snark memes while failing to vote because we couldn't be arsed. Yay!

 

[Black Mamba]

The biggest eye opener in LAT/USC poll with +7 Trump is that is shows 18-34 year olds solidly crossing from blue to red over this past month. Its impossible to understand. Pigeon recently mentioned wrt a different poll is a potential oversampling of that age group particularly from the lower middle class uneducated group. Maybe that's the trend, but again it means squat without gotv effort. Thats why i think that a stringent LV field is an absolute must this electio (USC poll didn't have one, and instead relied on subjective probability).

The USC poll is fascinating because it's being done by some of the same people that did RAND last time which used similar methods and was successful (RAND is doing it again, btw) https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2016

But, for as good as RAND was nationally last time, it was off in some places like Florida...because a lot of older hispanic people don't use computers. I know this because I've seen this here in Cali. There's a big gap between elderly non-hispanic and hispanic people when it comes to computers and smart phones.

I'm pretty sure when a poll comes out with 30% hispanics for Trump, it's poor polling.


What's amazing about the USC poll, though, is not that. It's that women are basically tied with the candidates. But I've yet to see another poll like this...

She's also losing the non-white, non-AA, non-hispanic vote. Uh...what?

 

[User1608]

*scratches head*

I need labels bruh

Damn
*Saves*
That's really effective.

 

[thebloo]

Petulent children will be flatulent.

Had to.

 

[PBY]

The USC poll is fascinating because it's being done by some of the same people that did RAND last time which used similar methods and was successful (RAND is doing it again, btw) https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2016

But, for as good as RAND was nationally last time, it was off in some places like Florida...because a lot of older hispanic people don't use computers. I know this because I've seen this here in Cali. There's a big gap between elderly non-hispanic and hispanic people when it comes to computers and smart phones.

I'm pretty sure when a poll comes out with 30% hispanics for Trump, it's poor polling.

I dunno man, I'm not crazy worried, but I tend to lean more towards "trust the polls" than not trusting them based on an assumption (an assumption by that way that I agree with, but its putting the cart before the horse, or in this case, the data).

 

[Teggy]

Can we talk about how there is a Trump AMA tonight? How will this not be a racist, anti-semitic shitshow?

 

[Sianos]

I wouldn't be that surprised. t've come to the personal realization that for all the talk about how progressive my generation is, by and large it seems like our only redeeming value is we're fine with gay people. Other than that, we want our college loans forgiven, and to smoke weed. And black people are fine, too, but we'd rather go to rallies and instagram that than support those causes at the local and state polls. But sure, we'll share "our dad's generation fucked everything up" snark memes while failing to vote because we couldn't be arsed. Yay!

In the future, people will be shocked that such a supposedly liberal generation somehow turned conservative. Assorted pseudo-biological explanations will be thrown out to the tune of grand claims that "people just grow more conservative as they get older" (hot take alert: people have been saying the accumulation of mutated errors in the genetic code due to repeated imperfect cell division is the cause of conservatism?!).

Meanwhile, the simple truth is that they were never liberal in the first place, had no solid epistemic foundation for their at the time beliefs, and were only ever ambivalent about minority rights and their experiences.

 

[Black Mamba]

I dunno man, I'm not crazy worried, but I tend to lean more towards "trust the polls" than not trusting them based on an assumption (an assumption by that way that I agree with, but its putting the cart before the horse, or in this case, the data).

My point is every other poll conducted, even good ones for Trump, have him losing women clearly...and this one has them tied.

Every poll geared to accurately tracking latino voting (meaning spanish only speakers) has Trump in the teens.

I mean...I'm not saying to ignore polls. I'm saying to compare one poll to others and ask what is going on.

 

[PBY]

My point is every other poll conducted, even good ones for Trump, have him losing women clearly...and this one has them tied.

Every poll geared to accurately tracking latino voting (meaning spanish only speakers) has Trump in the teens.

I mean...I'm not saying to ignore polls. I'm saying to compare one poll to others and ask what is going on.

agreed

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Results of Seattle's minimum wage increase to $11 an hour: Meh.

https://evans.uw.edu/sites/default/files/MinWageReport-July2016_Final.pdf

Low wage workers were slightly helped out by the increase, but the effects were small. Wage increases were balanced out by lost employment.

 

[Dominican Power]

Fast forward to the debates pls.

 

[thcsquad]

On the tom Kean thing, I have a question that his Wikipedia doesn't clarify. Did Tom Kean pass a four billion dollar tax increase in new Jersey?

Because I can get subconsciously misspeaking the name of the state, especially since trump has a lot of NJ experience and is probably familiar with kean. It sounds like trump is giving an accurate description of Tom Kean and therefore truly believes that he is the vice presidential nominee.

 

[PBY]

Results of Seattle's minimum wage increase to $11 an hour: Meh.

https://evans.uw.edu/sites/default/files/MinWageReport-July2016_Final.pdf

Low wage workers were slightly helped out by the increase, but the effects were small. Wage increases were balanced out by lost employment.

Love reading this kind of stuff.I feel like this is critical, and we should really learn from more data on these kinds of issues, even if they seem to burst assumptions/notions weve held true for a while.

That said, its one study on one test case.

 

[Black Mamba]

Opening: in @NextGenClimate Proj Nw Am poll, 75% of battleground Millennials say @realDonaldTrump is a racist; 75% say does't respect women

hm...

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I dunno man, I'm not crazy worried, but I tend to lean more towards "trust the polls" than not trusting them based on an assumption (an assumption by that way that I agree with, but its putting the cart before the horse, or in this case, the data).

Some of these crosstabs don't even match up with polls showing Trump ahead like CNN.

http://96.127.53.23/election/

Women are basically tied, Clinton getting only 50 percent of hispanics, and obviously 18-34.

 

[PBY]

hm...

that feeling when you realize these are like 10% of the voting electorate

 

[dramatis]

hm...

Gotta get that Obama/Clinton campaign machine to work then

Project Narwhal 2.0

 

[theprodigy]

that feeling when you realize these are like 10% of the voting electorate

more like that feeling when you realize some of those who think that will still vote for Trump anyway

 

[nature boy]

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 12m12 minutes ago
Latino's In (12) Battleground States:

Clinton 71% (+47)
Trump 24%
@latinovictoryus/@LatinoDecisions/@Fusion Poll

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5614/6956/0214/LVP_Battleground_Toplines.pdf

If close to reality, I can see why the Clinton campaign wants to fight more for the latino vote. Weird how it's so much higher than national.

Trump rally live now. Pence talking.

 

[Abinash117]

Arguably, they should be doing some regional balancing. BUT, I do think the popular vote is always going to appear closer than the electoral vote.

He is going to have insane margins in places like Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Idaho, etc. It doesn't help him if he wins by 10 or 30, but I think that's where a lot of his support is coming from.

What might happen is that in every blue state Hillary will get a large turnout, probably more than Obama, and somewhat what the same with the swing states. She also might flip very few red states. That might give her about 350-400 electoral votes, but the popular vote will be in the double digits.

 

[hawk2025]

So, eeeerrr...

What is GAF's general outlook on people posting mostly off-topic, but highly discrediting post history in an unrelated thread again?


Asking for a friend, of course!

 

[Sianos]

With regards to Freddie Gray, it struck me as absolutely absurd that people could possibly believe that this random guy who was just standing around - until the police spooked him with one of their dehumanizing stares, as the police calls them - committed suicide by bashing his head against the walls of the van to die a martyr.

Until I remember that many people sadly see out-groups as hive minds. I guess this is the subconscious extension of the "black leaders" rhetoric.

Let me just say from experience that it takes quite a lot of willpower to kill yourself by bashing your head into something. More than I possessed as a child. Your body is designed towards self-preservation, and it takes an extreme amount of mental trauma to override that self-preservation instinct. Beyond self-loathing, beyond a desire to punish one's self, beyond fear of an arrest.

Those trying to portray Freddie Gray's death as a suicide are incorrect and demonstrating their own lack of perspective in the process.

 

[User 463088]

So, eeeerrr...

What is GAF's general outlook on people posting mostly off-topic, but highly discrediting post history in an unrelated thread again?


Asking for a friend, of course!

Obviously, I'm not a fan. Everything I post is always 100% on topic. Always. No exceptions. Ever.

Spoiler

I actually have no idea what you're talking about. I'm just here for the drag queens.

 

[Black Mamba]

So, why hasn't any reporter asked Trump about how Mitch McConnell and others in the GOP claim that once Trump is President, they'll control his foreign policy.

Seriously, ask Trump about this. There is no fucking way Trump will agree that he will be controlled by the GOP. Make those fuckers own it. They excuse what he says regarding NATO and now this hacking shit. So ask Trump his thoughts on Mitch McConnell claiming that once elected they will tell him what to do and he will listen.

Trump will blast them and then the reporters will have to see if they stand behind him full throttle and when they do, how they justify it.

Fuck the GOP and their bullshit. Do some real reporting, guys.

 

[sangreal]

Trump and his flag counting again. smh

 

[ampere]

So, eeeerrr...

What is GAF's general outlook on people posting mostly off-topic, but highly discrediting post history in an unrelated thread again?


Asking for a friend, of course!

Might wanna PM Kev for a real answer, I can only speculate

 

[Sianos]

Obviously, I'm not a fan. Everything I post is always 100% on topic. Always. No exceptions. Ever.

Spoiler

I actually have no idea what you're talking about. I'm just here for the drag queens.

He's talking about presenting a user's post history that, even if it isn't pertinent to the topic of discussion of that particular thread, demonstrates something about that user that contradicts something they've said in that particular thread.

I'm not sure either, best to ask a mod I guess.

 

[hawk2025]

Might wanna PM Kev for a real answer, I can only speculate

I'm joking, of course, since it's not on topic at all. But someone will jump on that particular grenade soon! Please don't be one of you.


I need to get out of the Whatsapp group I'm currently debating in. It's basically one giant Diablosing thread right now on how no one will listen to evidence and facts anyways.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I'm not sure what the prosecution could have done differently because it just seems like an extremely difficult case to get a conviction out of, perhaps they should have gone for lesser-charges instead? The law does not like leaning on probabilities (however large) and it seems like each defendant could just point the finger at everyone else as being the real cause.

 

[thebloo]

I can't be bothered to go back and quote, but some of the diablosing about Hillary has reached absurd levels. I mean...
Biden? That guy would have been rejected by the Dems and then eviscerated in a GE. He appeals to nobody outside the "Diamond Joe" image and that falls apart quickly in a campaign.
Kaine? He was on nobody's map 5 minutes ago and y'all said he was boring.

As for the GOP, they're all really flawed and have shown it again and again. It's really weird seeing this hyped up image of guys like Rubio when we're just months from the biggest breakdown in debate history.

 

[Plinko]

I can't be bothered to go back and quote, but some of the diablosing about Hillary has reached absurd levels. I mean...
Biden? That guy would have been rejected by the Dems and then eviscerated in a GE. He appeals to nobody outside the "Diamond Joe" image and that falls apart quickly in a campaign.
Kaine? He was on nobody's map 5 minutes ago and y'all said he was boring.

As for the GOP, they're all really flawed and have shown it again and again. It's really weird seeing this hyped up image of guys like Rubio when we're just months from the biggest breakdown in debate history.

I still think Elizabeth Warren could have been a fantastic candidate had Hillary not been in.