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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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Brawndo Addict
Banned
Wouldn't shitting your pants be worse than just farting to those around you? I would fear a "shit in".
User 463088
Banned
They got them from Trader Joes in GMO, gluten-free cans.
Adults is a strong word....
Atomic Playboy
Member
I've eaten a lot of bean-heavy meals as an adult. Spent an awful large amount of time passing gas because of it. Can't recall ever shitting myself. I think that's a pretty bold prediction for a group of (physically, if not intellectually) grown men and women.
How did a "fart-in" become a thing? That seriously sounds like something out of the wacky world of early 19th century politics where you had the occasional duel and whatnot.
This woman has had enough of Kayleigh McEnerny's shit. LOL
https://twitter.com/LucBerthelette/status/758407703119233027
https://twitter.com/LucBerthelette/status/758407703119233027
balladofwindfishes
Member
I am a large man with a poor diet. Any place I visit is a potential fart in.
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSS!!!! If looks could kil.
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
LMAO. She went cross-eyed.
Did you try to hold the gas in for several hours and then release it a pre-determined time?
did you feel the peer pressure of needing to fart at a specific time so you thought pushing was a good idea?
These are things adults think about... remember this key fact. Adults.
Atomic Playboy
Member
Someone's clearly never sat through mandatory late-afternoon "team building exercises."
Trump's going to get destroyed in the Philly suburbs and Philly which is were a lot of the population lives in that state if I recall.
DataStream
Member
Bernie's wife is keeping it real on CNN.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Clinton and Kaine are doing a bus tour of Philly soi think they are taking this seriously too.
It's good that they are taking this seriously.
whyamihere
Banned
I find this kind of reporting to be a bit lazy, though I expect that PA will be a relatively close election and I'm glad that Clinton is taking PA seriously. "I spoke to people, it's close!"
I could find you people in Wyoming who voting for Hillary. WHO KNOWS?!
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Man, just thinking about the idea of not just Trump winning, but beating a woman (by making sexist comments), replacing a black man (who he said was not born in this country), by getting any portion of hispanic voters (who he will basically make open prejudice okay against), and being helped by a foreign nation (Russia).
That thought alone makes me want to fucking kill myself.
That thought alone makes me want to fucking kill myself.
the south philly guys he is talking to are the guys that have signs on their restaurants saying english only.
Basically Trumps bread and butter, but these same people never voted for a democrat anyway.
Yup. I'm glad to see that. I think Clinton spoke at VFW just before the first night of the DNC. Then you have her doing this bus tour with her VP. Shows they are serious.
Aside from a town hall has Trump done anything with Pence since the VP announcement?
Outdoor Miner
Member
Credit to Bernie and Jane, they've done all they can this convention to get this ship righted.
A random thought I just had on Bernie or Busters:
Ignoring all of the other reasons why their antics are irrational, isn't this going to sour regular people on the movement and Bernie's revolution in general? Like, they need to eventually convince people that their preferred platform is a good idea. And this just makes everyone watching think that the revolution is a bunch of angry, privileged children like Occupy.
Bernie has to be thinking right now that regardless of the direct effect on this particular election, that these antics are hurting his push for progressive change long-term.
Ignoring all of the other reasons why their antics are irrational, isn't this going to sour regular people on the movement and Bernie's revolution in general? Like, they need to eventually convince people that their preferred platform is a good idea. And this just makes everyone watching think that the revolution is a bunch of angry, privileged children like Occupy.
Bernie has to be thinking right now that regardless of the direct effect on this particular election, that these antics are hurting his push for progressive change long-term.
I did read all your posts. I always read every post in this thread, except when I wake up to 80 pages of YASSS, then I skim.
Basically this. On top of that I also agree with the other posters saying that even if a Generic R could win the GE they can't win the Republican primary.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Get out of my head.
No.
However, the governor of New Jersey immediately AFTER Tom Kean did.
Trump didn't just confuse Tim Kaine with Tom Kean, he also confused Tom Kean with another governor at the same time.
Well, except for telling his supporters that the primary wasn't rigged
Eh he can't really come back from that imo. I'll give him credit. He's been great and done a lot to help unite his base. These people aren't the majority of his supporters.
I met her, she's nice
RustyNails
Member
PA has been fools gold for Republicans for god knows how long. I highly doubt it's going to be close. Sure its losing jobs and sees people leaving, but the big population centers will save it.
That's the worst feeling. Getting rumble gut at about 1, right after lunch... Miserable.
You're imagining it from too much of a political dimension. Busters abhor politics. They seem to understand "politics" to be all about the single minded pushing of your own agenda to the exclusion of all else. So, compromise is out, inclusion of other points of view is out. Considering how your preferred actions today might hurt you tomorrow? O-U-T. It's all circle jerk, all the time.
If they were considering any of that stuff, they would be standing with the rest of Bernie's folks already, prepared to do the work.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
looooooooots of people in here getting lost in cross tabs. that's exactly how people kept not believing brexit was going to happen. it's scary but you should believe what the polls say.
He certainly was.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
If I didn't believe when Reuters was Clinton +13, I don't have to believe the opposite result either.
whyamihere
Banned
I mean, no. Not every poll is created equal. 538 knows this, and most people who deal with polls tell you think as well. If you start unskewing credible polls, then yes, that is problematic. But bad science averaged with better science does not make best science, and when a poll vehemently disagrees with the norm, that's worth pointing out.
And can we please retire any version of "people didn't see Brexit was going to happen"?
User 463088
Banned
: sigh :
This is not the same thing.
If there were ten polls that said "People from Devon support Brexit 77-16"and then one poll comes out saying "People from Devon support Brexit 50-30" intellectual consistency would require that you look skeptically at it! You don't have to unskew or anything like that. But looking at crosstabs is kind of a big deal.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is interesting. We still have yet to see any actual demographic expectations for Hispanic voters, either. I'm really curious as to actual expectations.
One important thing 538 has consistently been right about is understanding poll bias vs. accuracy. Diablosing about the LA Times poll is silly when it has been significantly more pro-Trump than most other polls since its inception. It has literally only shown Hillary ahead ONCE since 7/10. Compare with all other polls in that period. Don't need to look at the crosstabs for that!
You can read the polls for trend, and average them into the aggregate, but 538 would correct this poll towards the Dems by a decent amount.
You can read the polls for trend, and average them into the aggregate, but 538 would correct this poll towards the Dems by a decent amount.
whyamihere
Banned
Well, all expectations done by Latino polling firms have Trump doing significantly worse than Romney, so probably that.
User 463088
Banned
Also, this is the most useless time in the world to panic about polling. You cannot get a sense of shit in a rainstorm during both conventions.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No, not that. How MANY Hispanic voters are scheduled to turnout, and how many new compared to 2012.
whyamihere
Banned
We can all agree that the greatest moment in New England sports history was when Varitek split the uprights.
thestopsign
Member
Imagine that lower graph keeps going up at the same rate.
So should we be expecting somewhere around 13m maybe?
plagiarize
Banned
Indeed. Polls are measurably not predictive during the conventions. Panic (if it indeed turns out to be needed) should be held for three or four weeks from now if polls still look similar then.
this is amazing.
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