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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
TheFatOne said:
It won't matter if they get someone decent in 2020 given how they are poisoning the well with Hispanic voters. Fine get a decent candidate then. How does it solve the demographic problem they have? Especially after Trump.
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Basileus777 said:
Perhaps generic R is the wrong term, but even post primary Republicans could do it as long as they aren't Trump or Cruz. Romney would win this year.
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Nah. If you believe this, then figure out how to fix Romney's demographic problem. Because he got record votes from white people and lost by over 100+ EVs. There's your generic R.

Until another Dubya comes along that can chip into minority support, the GOP has a very serious wall to climb. And honestly, such a Republican is going to have it hard since the current GOP is turning Hispanic voters into black voters, and that really sews up the White House.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Doug Adams ‏@DougNBC 13m13 minutes ago
NBC confirms that Hillary has arrived in Philadelphia. Expected that we will see her in hall - as most nominees usually "surprise" on Day 3
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John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 20m20 minutes ago
John Harwood Retweeted Brian Stelter
TV audience scoreboard v 2.0, total viewers broadcast + cable: DNC night two, 24-M; RNC night two, 19-M
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Maybe that's why he's going mad?
 
S

Sianos

Member
Iolo said:
trump: will you go out with me
usa: no
trump: i was just joking anyway, i would never date someone so ugly
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i remember once as a kid i was flustered when a girl who i thought couldn't possibly be interested in me came up to me with one of her friends and asked if i'd like to go out with her

i guess my nervousness and stuttering attempts to respond came across the wrong way, because before i could say anything she shouted "just joking, of course i would never date someone like you!!" and then ran off while her friend just glared at me

and being the fool i was, i took it at face value, totally believed her, and was really upset that someone would fake me out like that

sad!

anyways, this post made me laugh HARD
laugh.gif
 
B

Basileus777

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
Nah. If you believe this, then figure out how to fix Romney's demographic problem. Because he got record votes from white people and lost by over 100+ EVs. There's your generic R.

Until another Dubya comes along that can chip into minority support, the GOP has a very serious wall to climb. And honestly, such a Republican is going to have it hard since the current GOP is turning Hispanic voters into black voters, and that really sews up the White House.
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I've already posted about this. That's not how those demographic advantages work, they aren't magic spells that make a Democratic win automatic. If a Republican is up 4 or 5 points nationally they will win and they probably wouldn't even need a margin that large. It's not a reliable way to win, but against an unpopular Democratic incompetent (which Hillary essentially already is) it's possible.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Plinko said:
I still think Elizabeth Warren could have been a fantastic candidate had Hillary not been in.
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nope, IMO Warren is not folksy enough outside of coastal urban settings.
Even if she is progressive, I don't see her reach that blue-collar non-educated guy.

Hillary will do fine, she has cross-over appeal into the suburbs and Hillary understands Republicans because she grew up with them.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Basileus777 said:
I've already posted about this. That's not how those demographic advantages work, they aren't magic spells that make a Democratic win automatic. If a Republican is up 4 or 5 points nationally they will win and they probably wouldn't even need a margin that large. It's not a reliable way to win, but against an unpopular Democratic incompetent (which Hillary essentially already is) it's possible.
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This is not how these demographics work. If you're arguing that a candidate doing worse among every demographic than Romney would win, then the only possible explanation is decreased turnout of minority voters (which would make a lower share of white people than Romney okay since you'd still be winning them).

Minorities will make up even more of the 2016 electorate than 2012, and Hillary is doing better among almost every demographic you can think of. Your premise of "a Republican up 4-5 points nationally" only happens if white people come out to vote and minorities don't.

The trends show the complete opposite of that.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
MSNBC continuing to build that division narrative. I don't think I have seen them interview a pro Hilary supporter in a while. For the most part it's been all pro Bernie. Not sure if that's some confirmation bias on my part though.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
TheFatOne said:
MSNBC continuing to build that division narrative. I don't think I have seen them interview a pro Hilary supporter in a while. For the most part it's been all pro Bernie. Not sure if that's some confirmation bias on my part though.
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Quite frankly they need to move on. I really don't think anyone cares at this point and I highly doubt people will care after tonight.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
TheFatOne said:
MSNBC continuing to build that division narrative. I don't think I have seen them interview a pro Hilary supporter in a while. For the most part it's been all pro Bernie. Not sure if that's some confirmation bias on my part though.
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"She's been campaigning for the TPP for the last four years."

I fucking can't.

Officerrob said:
I firmly believe many of these people have no idea what TPP is
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They don't, and I really wish reporters would call them on it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
TheFatOne said:
MSNBC continuing to build that division narrative. I don't think I have seen them interview a pro Hilary supporter in a while. For the most part it's been all pro Bernie. Not sure if that's some confirmation bias on my part though.
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They have been trying so damn hard. I have no idea what they think their endgame is. IF they think they can get cred with the far left (they won't) or the far right (they won't). It's just weird.
 
S

sangreal

Member
TheFatOne said:
MSNBC continuing to build that division narrative. I don't think I have seen them interview a pro Hilary supporter in a while. For the most part it's been all pro Bernie. Not sure if that's some confirmation bias on my part though.
Click to expand...

I don't know why they even call them Bernie supporters at this point. He isn't running for anything. They're just anti-clinton protesters

Officerrob said:
I firmly believe many of these people have no idea what TPP is
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I was waiting for him to ask her that
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Jake Tapper scaring me that PA might go Trump. Said that the people he met in So. Philly seem to be leaning Trump. Then you have Scranton where Trump is resonating with the folks there.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
Officerrob said:
I firmly believe many of these people have no idea what TPP is
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Truth? I don't think I understand TPP either. I understand what it is, but I have no concept of what it will do or who it is likely to hurt or help. Remarkably few people seem interested in talking facts about TPP. Based on the hurricane of conflicting data I've read about what would happen if it was implemented, all I can determine is that the opinions on results are highly inconclusive.

Normally, in an inconclusive results place like this, Obama's opinion is the tiebreaker for me. But Hillary has been against it since the public document on it came out. If her wonk-sense is tingling about this being a bad deal, it's probably a bad deal.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Is Today the define Trump day?

Tomorrow seems light, I assume HC will be 10-11, but no heavy hitters before that.

jbug617 said:
Jake Tapper scaring me that PA might go Trump. Said that the people he met in So. Philly seem to be leaning Trump. Then you have Scranton where Trump is resonating with the folks there.
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It's probably the most likely state to flip if Trump wins. I expect PA might be closer than FL, VA, NV, CO and others.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I just realized I've been confusing Tim Kaine with Terry McCulluf(?) all this time.

If Hillary win, what happens to Kaine's seat?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
GurgleBot20 said:
Has any event or scandal occurred between July and November that lopsided that poll?
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Not really, no. Reagan ran a better campaign. He had the better ads. He ran on optimism and hope. His campaign was competent. It's just an example of how polling this far out is not always indicative of the way in which the race turns out.

Right now is the high point for Trump. And he's essentially getting a tie in most polls. He's not getting above the low 40s. (If that). Demographics don't favor him. It's just a shitty moment to panic. :)
 
K

Kusagari

Member
jbug617 said:
Jake Tapper scaring me that PA might go Trump. Said that the people he met in So. Philly seem to be leaning Trump. Then you have Scranton where Trump is resonating with the folks there.
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I don't even care at this point. I'm remaining confident that VA, FL and CO go blue and that's all we need.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Oblivion said:
I just realized I've been confusing Tim Kaine with Terry McCulluf(?) all this time.

If Hillary win, what happens to Kaine's seat?
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McAuliffe chooses a replacement who holds the seat until a special election is held next year.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
At least one person at the fart in is going to shit themselves. That's my prediction for the most important political event of the year happening tomorrow.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Ohh didn't know Trumps camp is now trying to add the qualifier of giving the information to the FBI. How cute. Already trying to find a way to walk this bullshit back without apologizing.
 
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