Ooh what, a few hours ago he was blaming Hillary, when did this happen?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
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Ooh what, a few hours ago he was blaming Hillary, when did this happen?
metalslimer
Member
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Look again. Clinton is losing.
I'm fairly confident if Biden was the candidate he'd be running away with this thing at this point. Clinton's name is toxic, and I'm genuinely concerned she won't be able to pull away. Everybody on here is WAY too confident that this thing is Hillary's. It's not even close to that point yet.
StopMakingSense
Member
Im not going to worry about pre/during convention polls.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
And pre 1st debate polls
Holy shit
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I edited. "Turn this around" is too dire. She has a great shot at winning. I think "pulling away" is much more appropriate here. I don't see her much higher than 4-5 points ahead at any point from here on out.
Our country is WAY too polarized at this point, and it is incredibly frustrating. I have four kids and them growing up in this atmosphere is worrisome.
nature boy
Member
Of course, counter-programming.
nature boy
Member
LOL Dumpster fire:
Fair and balanced, am i rite?
StopMakingSense
Member
Yeah, what the fuck was Trump doing doing interviews DURING the prime time section. I just can't.
I don't know why all these other people are talking, I'm bored.
StopMakingSense
Member
How do they not have a minder with a direct line to the campaign manager to alert him when Trump does anything?
We just going to ignore the Quinn poll that has her up by a bajillion so we can freak out? Polls don't mean anything yet. Calm down.
Edit: wait that's a ny poll only? Well I guess we are doomed.
Biden is a terrible candidate who failed spectacularly twice to even win a single primary. He's further to the right of the democrats than Hillary, and his entire appeal lies in the old democratic base - White, working class older people. That coalition doesn't win the democrats government anymore.
Yup, this is how exactly how it works in college.
Thank you, the Biden revisionism is dumb
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Melania being blamed, Manafort gone rogue!
I can't. These are actual real life people, not actual crab people.
I can't. These are actual real life people, not actual crab people.
No lies detected.
Still, I feel he's earned a permanent pass after destroying the legend of Paul Ryan: Boy Genius.
RustyNails
Member
Manafort is right to blame Melania, I think.
Bring her out, she accepts the blame and admits she cheated a little and quickly move on. I think Manafort already accepted that its a blow and hes trying to patch it up and move on as quickly as possible.
Bring her out, she accepts the blame and admits she cheated a little and quickly move on. I think Manafort already accepted that its a blow and hes trying to patch it up and move on as quickly as possible.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
I don't understand how an aide hasn't been sacrificed yet. Someone, anyone who has had a hand in speechwriting before and can fall on his sword. This is a terrible campaign with no rapid response team but I doubt that's the only explanation. Manafort may be on his way out, based on tweets posted and his media appearances. I've said for weeks that he won't make it to the first debate, but I assumed they'd fire him after Hillary gains in the polls. She's falling in polls now, firing him makes no sense.
Trump kids coup? The story about Melania not being happy about their handling of the campaign makes me wonder whether Trump will have to bring an outsider in to satisfy his wife; she's already being embarrassed, replacing Manafort with Trump's kids (who she allegedly clashes with) would be a disaster.
Trump kids coup? The story about Melania not being happy about their handling of the campaign makes me wonder whether Trump will have to bring an outsider in to satisfy his wife; she's already being embarrassed, replacing Manafort with Trump's kids (who she allegedly clashes with) would be a disaster.
Plinko, you called Trump winning by looking at the polling aggregate and seeing that Trump was leading. The polling aggregates ALL have Clinton leading right now. Don't change your logical approach that correctly called Trump when the rest of us were making shitty gut choices that ignored reality. This is a good primer we should all read yet again:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/07/15/foo-freakouts-over-outliers/
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/07/15/foo-freakouts-over-outliers/
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm not talking about Biden in the primaries.
I'm talking about a hypothetical matchup with Trump. Are you seriously implying that non-whites would vote for Trump in this case? Because that's what it sounds like.
Bowdz said:
Except polling HAS narrowed in many states over the last few days, some even giving Trump a lead. I'm not freaking out yet--just saying this race isn't a given like almost everyone on here says it is. If this narrowing/Trump leading remains after the democratic convention and into October, then it's time to freak out.
I can understand why Melania must be beyond pissed.
It's been obvious from the beginning she wants nothing to do with the attention the campaign brings. She doesn't want to give/write a speech so Trump/Manafort tell her they're hiring the best speechwriters possible to craft something for her. She takes credit for it because of course she has to.
Then she looks like an utter fool for plagiarism.
It's been obvious from the beginning she wants nothing to do with the attention the campaign brings. She doesn't want to give/write a speech so Trump/Manafort tell her they're hiring the best speechwriters possible to craft something for her. She takes credit for it because of course she has to.
Then she looks like an utter fool for plagiarism.
metalslimer
Member
There's no way day 2 can top day 1 right...?
nature boy
Member
i don't cleveland could survive that
Guys, here's what will happen. Melania will make a tearful statement to the press. She had written something but it was such an important speech and she loves her husband so much she started second guessing herself and asked for help at the last second. The speechwriters hastily slapped together what she ended up delivering. Sometime during the convention (maybe introducing Trump), she'll give the original speech, which will sound like it was written by a four-year-old but will be a heartfelt and touching tribute to her husband (this speech won't be written by her either but don't worry about that). There won't be a dry eye in the house and everyone will come out looking great.
And Trump will talk about how he's sincerely become a Christian lately and how he's asked God for forgiveness for all the times in the past he's done something un-Republican. Take it to the bank, kids.
And Trump will talk about how he's sincerely become a Christian lately and how he's asked God for forgiveness for all the times in the past he's done something un-Republican. Take it to the bank, kids.
FloydtheFathead
Member
They've been through worse..
They survived the Decision. They can survive anything.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Fixed
Narrowing at a time when polling aggregates almost always flip is is not surprising. It's also important to note that narrowing and losing the aggregate lead are two different things and right now, Clinton still has a notable polling aggregate lead and leads most battleground state polling aggregates.
I'll absolutely agree with you though, nothing should be taken for granted this season and anything is possible.
Trump doesn't have the grace to pull something like this off.
True. He'll probably get Sarah Palin to go on Fox News to blast the media for asking Melania "gotcha" questions. In this case, "Would you like to give a speech at the convention?"
Spider from Mars
tap that thorax
Scottie Nell Hughes is a mess
I'm saying they won't turn out for him like they will Clinton. They won't switch to Trump, but he certainly doesn't have the same appeal to minority communities in the same way she does. Let's not forget, people of colour *want* to vote for clinton - they aren't doing it out of duty, they want her to win. She motivates that part of the base something chronic.
And Biden has to win the primaries before he can fight a general election, and all the evidence we have suggests that wasn't going to be the case. He would have been squeezed out early on between sanders and clinton.
Ultimately he isn't a good campaigner.
StopMakingSense
Member
God I love Robert Costa's reporting.
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