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[StopMakingSense]

I know I sound shallow for dumping on a guy's name, but politics is a shallow business when the electorate is involved. A guy named Vilsack (fucking VIL

Spoiler

E

SACK) would project an awful image. You can't just be good, you gotta look good too. It's why Castro wouldn't work. That last name is poisoned, and his face is more than a little creepy.

We resoundingly elected a man with Hussein in his name.

 

[RustyNails]

NBC News has a copy of the speech that the speechwriter who wrote Milania Trump's speech turned in, and it doesn't have the Obama stuff. No doubt, a Trump family member added it

Bet its Eric Trump. He did it.

 

[Wilsongt]

Ben Carson is gonna be a fucking riot tonight. I hope he gets sued for the fact that he's been stealing money from the poor and desperate for over a decade now.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...arson-being-transgender-doesnt-make-any-sense

I can't believe I actually liked his book.

 

[nature boy]

iCitizen is not even rated by 538.

Lack of polls?

 

[RustyNails]

I can't believe I actually liked his book.

Its fiction, so all good.

 

[jiggle]

I know I sound shallow for dumping on a guy's name, but politics is a shallow business when the electorate is involved. A guy named Vilsack (fucking VIL

Spoiler

E

SACK) would project an awful image. You can't just be good, you gotta look good too. It's why Castro wouldn't work. That last name is poisoned, and his face is more than a little creepy.


Same can't be said for this man:

Say it with me everybody:

"Perez".

i mean
if that's ur criteria
then might as well pick

 

[Y2Kev]

Kaine would be so disappointing just because he's been the pick for months. It's like be a little interesting.
For the record wapo knows 0

 

[RastaMentality]

538 is godawful for sports. I wonder what happens when ESPN axes them.

 

[User 463088]

Every time I see Gov Sexy my ovaries hurt.

 

[metalslimer]

I still like 538 for their occasional pretty great analysis, but 538 realizes they need to get the clicks now because their site is going to be wasteland after Nov

 

[Tarkus]

Every time I see Gov Sexy my ovaries hurt.

It's called pelvic inflammatory disease and it's tied to your promiscuity.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't think the article is that bad. Y'all are kvetching.

 

[Diablos]

http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/

Same polling company that gave Clinton +5 in Florida last week.

Fucking hell.

Johnson is IN THE WAY. Clinton at like 50 without him in the race. Fuck fuck fuck.

 

[Y2Kev]

You are the worst.

 

[Officerrob]

Wait, Trump is going to be there again tonight?

 

[Diablos]

Michelle Obama should sue the Trump campaign.

 

[kirblar]

At least Vox's shitty clickbait is done by actual idiots.

 

[Diablos]

Paul Ryan looks like he's holding his poop.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

I just assume that Diablos is deliberately playing it up. I'm comparatively new here, though, so I'm probably wrong about this.

 

[User 463088]

It's called pelvic inflammatory disease and it's tied to your promiscuity.

YOU CARE. <3

 

[Tarkus]

Michelle Obama should sue the Trump campaign.

For what? Lifting words from a speech which lifted words from Saul Alinsky

 

[nature boy]

Fucking hell.

Johnson is IN THE WAY. Clinton at like 50 without him in the race. Fuck fuck fuck.

Why are you freaking out?

Unless the DNC is a shitfest and she bombs hard in the debates, it's hard to imagine how she loses.

 

[Owzers]

Wait, Trump is going to be there again tonight?

I hope he blames the lying, dishonest, disgusting media to cheers. 9pm Sleepy Eyes Chuck Todd better be ready.

 

[Y2Kev]

I just assume that Diablos is deliberately playing it up. I'm comparatively new here, though, so I'm probably wrong about this.

No, that's really him.

 

[metalslimer]

For what? Lifting words from a speech which lifted words from Saul Alinsky

Are you serious?

 

[Tarkus]

Are you serious?

Are you Diablos?

 

[Loudninja]

You are the worst.

It so annoying at this point.

 

[Ecotic]

Who would do better at helping win their home state? Kaine for Virginia or Vilsack for Iowa? Virginia has more electoral votes so Kaine has that going for him.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Who would do better at helping win their home state? Kaine for Virginia or Vilsack for Iowa? Virginia has more electoral votes so Kaine has that going for him.

VA is pretty safe tho.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Does anyone know what aspects of 538's model account for them giving Trump a higher win probability than Wang's or The Upshot's?

I don't just mean that "Sam Wang's model gives Clinton better numbers," but what are the differences in the statistical models is leading them to produce such divergent results?

538's model has a probability distribution that gives higher probability to extreme outcomes (like Hillary winning >500 EVs) and many Trump victories would have to be an extreme change from the polls.

538's just seems to not assume hyperpolarization I guess?

 

[Y2Kev]

Does anyone know what aspects of 538's model account for them giving Trump a higher win probability than Wang's or The Upshot's?

I don't just mean that "Sam Wang's model gives Clinton better numbers," but what are the differences in the statistical models is leading them to produce such divergent results?

Read the upshot's explanation. They explain exactly why.

And sam's methodology is entirely different. You have to read his piece on meta margin.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Who would do better at helping win their home state? Kaine for Virginia or Vilsack for Iowa? Virginia has more electoral votes so Kaine has that going for him.

All the evidence says that VP candidates have very minimal impact on voters. Clinton worked with Vilsack in Obama's cabinet and Kaine in the senate. She wants someone she's comfortable with. That's it really.

 

[Effect]

I know people have their prefernce but are either of those choices horrible? An OMG no pick? Something that could hurt her? Or is it just a case of them not bringing excitement? Bad at debates? Or aren't good on the stump? Look bad when the cameras are on them? Etc?

Also trying not to listen tonight. I felt physically sick to my stomach last night the little I did manage to watch and rather not do that again. Figure I'll try to play some games or watch a few movies and see what the fallout is if I'm awake.

 

[Y2Kev]

All the evidence says that VP candidates have very minimal impact on voters. Clinton worked with Vilsack in Obama's cabinet and Kaine in the senate. She wants someone she's comfortable with. That's it really.

Hillary Clinton is a loser and I'm now on the giant meteor hitting earth train. Ff7 was a great game.

 

[Tarkus]

How do Trump's kids speak so well and are so articulate, yet their dad sounds like such an idiot?
It's obvious he wasn't involved in parenting.

 

[nature boy]

Lol Michelle Obama doing Carpool Karaoke. GOAT FLOTUS.

 

[Wilsongt]

Hillary Clinton is a loser and I'm now on the giant meteor hitting earth train. Ff7 was a great game.

...

...

...

Mess.

 

[gaugebozo]

Can somebody explain Johnson's popularity? If you naively think of libertarians as dissatisfied Republicans, that puts Trump up in a head to head race. I mean, why?

 

[Thequietone]

Can somebody explain Johnson's popularity? If you naively think of libertarians as dissatisfied Republicans, that puts Trump up in a head to head race. I mean, why?

Johnson supports legal weed.

 

[Wilsongt]

Can somebody explain Johnson's popularity? If you naively think of libertarians as dissatisfied Republicans, that puts Trump up in a head to head race. I mean, why?

Closest thing to Ron/Rand Paul?

 

[Bowdz]

538 is godawful for sports. I wonder what happens when ESPN axes them.

Hopefully, Nate goes crawling to the Wang only to have the Wang throw his projections all over Nate's face.

 

[User 463088]

Can somebody explain Johnson's popularity? If you naively think of libertarians as dissatisfied Republicans, that puts Trump up in a head to head race. I mean, why?

It's Never Trump people who haven't gotten on the Hillary train yet. Most times they only pick him if they're prompted for him. They can be won and will come home to the bosom of Hillary.

 

[RastaMentality]

As I posted earlier, Johnson's support craters when there's an undecided option.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

While we're complaining about 538 and Nate, why does he and the site care so much about what betting sites say? They have no models or anything. It's so stupid.

 

[User 85168]

Aside from 538's content quality (which I personally have no problem with, including that piece), they're not going anywhere. Their non politic coverage is substantial and actually pretty good. I like that there's a place that looks at stuff a little differently.

 

[Valhelm]

Can somebody explain Johnson's popularity? If you naively think of libertarians as dissatisfied Republicans, that puts Trump up in a head to head race. I mean, why?

Under-45 Republicans who hate all poor people equally

 

[TestOfTide]

Can somebody explain Johnson's popularity? If you naively think of libertarians as dissatisfied Republicans, that puts Trump up in a head to head race. I mean, why?

Economic conservatism is unfortunately very popular in America, but social conservatism is much less popular.

Unlike Romney, Trump ran on 90% social conservatism. So what you have is a lot of people that would normally vote for the GOP, but are sick of hearing social conservative crap. Many of these people have decided "fuck it I'm going Nader on Trump."

 

[neurosisxeno]

Under-45 Republicans

I prefer to call them Electoral Unicorns.

 

[ampere]

Fucking hell.

Johnson is IN THE WAY. Clinton at like 50 without him in the race. Fuck fuck fuck.

Stop. When November rolls around nobody will actually vote for him or Stein. Stop :you-ing

2012
Gary Earl Johnson Libertarian New Mexico 1,275,971 0.99%
Jill Ellen Stein Green Massachusetts 469,627 0.36%

Can somebody explain Johnson's popularity? If you naively think of libertarians as dissatisfied Republicans, that puts Trump up in a head to head race. I mean, why?

They're protesting by saying "neither" in polling. This will fade as we get closer to November

 

[TumblingHippo]

EDIT: Whoops I'm a dumb