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[pigeon]

http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/

Same polling company that gave Clinton +5 in Florida last week.

This more or less matches what's been said in this thread. Trump's not gaining significantly, Clinton is losing votes. Those are people who were clearly willing to vote for Clinton, so they can be won. It's just a question of convincing them to get back.

Trump has a much smaller pool of people who are clearly willing to vote for Trump but haven't yet committed to doing so. That's his ceiling.

 

[nature boy]

So the campaign brought in two writers for the speech. The speech she delivered had nothing in common with the speech that she delivered. It was totes the Trump spawn who did this. I refuse to believe otherwise.

Yep.

Dan Balz ‏@danbalz 18m18 minutes ago
Trump campaign asked Matt Scully, John McConnell to draft Melania speech. They did. Speech Monday bore almost no resemblance to the draft.

 

[Ophelion]

Republicans tend to repeat themselves and use buzzwords.

Everyone does that. It's just message control.

See: Bernie Sanders for most recent strong example on the left.

Edit: or is this a "that's the joke" moment? Maybe I'm just stupid. Always have to leave room for that option.

 

[Teggy]

You'd have to ban all kids/spouses from the stage. Just let Trump and Fence come out and let the balloons fall.

Would they kiss?

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I think Melania just tried writing the speech herself.

 

[Geg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahChgL85VF8

Colbert had a great opener song last night.

This week you will see
You and me
We will witness history
As the RNC crowns its orange manatee

We'll see wacky hats, crazy ties, worn by thousands white guys.
And an entire airplane hanger filled with Donald Trump's ex-wives.
We'll see Newt Ron and Rand (and maybe members of the Klan)
But no Muslims or Latinos because I think they've all been banned!

There's only one bit near the end I couldn't totally understand, *someone* in the bathroom yelling why?

 

[BotoxAgent]

http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/

Same polling company that gave Clinton +5 in Florida last week.

I am guessing these polls are a bit useless right now until conventions are over and see where that movement goes.

 

[User 463088]

I mean the FBI Director literally came out and said "OH MY GOD BISH IS CARELESS" and yet....she's still winning. I feel like that was her low point. We have no where to go but up. Plus, I don't think Johnson is going to get more than 5% nationally. (I'd actually peg it at 2%).

Plus I'm not completely sold the national race won't appear a lot tighter than the Electoral College.

 

[User 85168]

There's only one bit near the end I couldn't totally understand, *someone* in the bathroom yelling why?

I heard "Jeb is in the bathroom yelling whyyyyyy"

 

[Geg]

Oh duh, yeah Jeb makes sense. I kept hearing "Neb"

 

[CCS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahChgL85VF8

Colbert had a great opener song last night.

This week you will see
You and me
We will witness history
As the RNC crowns its orange manatee

We'll see wacky hats, crazy ties, worn by thousands white guys.
And an entire airplane hanger filled with Donald Trump's ex-wives.
We'll see Newt Ron and Rand (and maybe members of the Klan)
But no Muslims or Latinos because I think they've all been banned!

This is amazing.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/

Same polling company that gave Clinton +5 in Florida last week.

Nice. Things are getting interesting lately. Excited to see momentum carry over into Day 2.

 

[Black Mamba]

21st Century Fox said that reports on Tuesday that Roger Ailes was out at Fox News were premature.
Roger is at work. The review is ongoing. The only agreement that is in place is his existing employment agreement," a statement from the company said.
On Tuesday afternoon, The Drudge Report reported that Ailes was leaving Fox News with a reported $40 million golden parachute, according to a copy of a separation agreement. That report was subsequently confirmed by a handful of news outlets. Fox initially confirmed the departure to The Daily Beast, but subsequently walked back the confirmation, and now Fox says it is not accurate.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/07/roger-ailes-to-leave-fox-news-225824#ixzz4EtLo13w6
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

lolz. Republicans anywhere can't keep up one single cohesive position.

 

[ctothej]

In a 2 person field, she's at 50% to Trump at 43%

That's so weird. So Johnson is more of a spoiler for Clinton than Trump?

 

[Mario]

I think Melania just tried writing the speech herself.

That's my guess too.

I suspect given English isn't her first language she leaned on looking at other relevant speeches and catch phrases she might have heard or looked up, lifted a few passages, made a few changes and assumed nobody would notice. If you aren't used to public speaking especially in this context then it might be easy to assume whatever you say isn't going to be subject to much scrutiny, especially if your husband has been able to say pretty much whatever he wanted for the last year without apparent negative repercussions.

Would be interesting to see if it is revealed anything else from the speech is plagiarized beyond Michelle Obama and Rick Astley.

 

[pigeon]

That's so weird. So Johnson is more of a spoiler for Clinton than Trump?

There are more people who will say "I prefer some third option right now, but if it came down to it, I'd go with Clinton."

Trump is a crazy incompetent racist. There just aren't a bunch of people who are like "well, I guess if I really had to, I'd vote for Idiot Hitler." Most of the people who say anybody but Trump really mean it.

 

[Tarkus]

Shit, I'll take this.

No Shepard Smith, though. Deal?

No deal. Shepard Smith is the greatest news anchor of our time. This guy is going to be huge one day. He's also gay.

I want a skewering, but more fact-based show with queen Megyn at 8, and hard news with Shep at 9. I'd watch every night. Greta and Brett are fine. Get Gutfeld for 10.

 

[User 463088]

That's so weird. So Johnson is more of a spoiler for Clinton than Trump?

It's probably just because people have no clue who the hell Johnson is, but if they're 100% not Trump, and only meh towards Hillary, any port in a storm.

Typically, they read the options

If the election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

It just shows she has a higher ceiling than Trump does.

 

[sangreal]

So the campaign brought in two writers for the speech. The speech she delivered had nothing in common with the speech that they delivered. It was totes the Trump spawn who did this. I refuse to believe otherwise.

Explains why they won't hold anyone accountable

 

[Suikoguy]

Just fire Manafort and forge forward alone Donny. You don't need anyone!
Just shitpost to November.

#ShitpostToNovember2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahChgL85VF8

Colbert had a great opener song last night.

This week you will see
You and me
We will witness history
As the RNC crowns its orange manatee

We'll see wacky hats, crazy ties, worn by thousands white guys.
And an entire airplane hanger filled with Donald Trump's ex-wives.
We'll see Newt Ron and Rand (and maybe members of the Klan)
But no Muslims or Latinos because I think they've all been banned!

That's a fantastic opener.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

I think Melania just tried writing the speech herself.

I don't buy this, both because I've never seen anything from Melania that suggests she could write a ticket order at a restaurant, let alone a speech, and because of all the reports of how Melania's speech was considered to be so very important by Trump.

My guess is that somebody, maybe one of his kids, butted in and wrote a speech, pulled the lines from the Michelle Obama speech that they intended to rephrase because they liked the idea of talking about down-home values since Melania is perceived as an airhead trophy wife, then just forgot to do so. Either that, or they watched the Michelle Obama speech for inspiration, got the phrasing stuck in their subconscious (as someone who writes, it does happen), then unthinkingly regurgitated it when they were writing Melania's speech.

 

[Geg]

I don't buy this, both because I've never seen anything from Melania that suggests she could write a ticket order at a restaurant, let alone a speech, and because of all the reports of how Melania's speech was considered to be so very important by Trump.

My guess is that somebody, maybe one of his kids, butted in and wrote a speech, pulled the lines from the Michelle Obama speech that they intended to rephrase, then just forgot to do so. Either that, or they watched the Michelle Obama speech for inspiration, got the phrasing stuck in their subconscious (as someone who writes, it does happen), then unthinkingly regurgitated it when they were writing Melania's speech.

That feels way too specific to have just been accidentally regurgitated. Plus a lot of it was rephrased, just poorly and lazily.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I hope I get 40 million dollars if I ever do anything as reprehensible as Ailes did.

 

[Teggy]

I hope I get 40 million dollars if I ever do anything as reprehensible as Ailes did.

It's going to be interesting what they do. They need to find some other right wing ideologue who knows how to run a television network.

 

[Emarv]

So excited for this roll call, you guys.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

That feels way too specific to have just been accidentally regurgitated. Plus a lot of it was rephrased, just poorly and lazily.

The similarity was like 22/26 words, with a few words elided, and a few others rearranged, which is not so absurdly large that it couldn't be called upon accidentally. I guess it could have been maliciously plagiarized, with the person who did it just too stupid to know how to change something to prevent people from noticing it was originally something else, but man, there's stupid, and there's STUPID, and even for Donald Trump's campaign, that would be stupid, especially since it wasn't even a particularly good bit of writing they were stealing.

 

[Black Mamba]

lol

 

[User 463088]

The similarity was like 22/26 words, with a few words elided, and a few others rearranged, which is not so absurdly large that it couldn't be called upon accidentally. I guess it could have been maliciously plagiarized, with the person who did it just too stupid to know how to change something to prevent people from noticing it was originally something else, but man, there's stupid, and there's STUPID, and even for Donald Trump's campaign, that would be stupid, especially since it wasn't even a particularly good bit of writing they were stealing.

Turn It In said the chances of it being accident were 1 in a trillion.

 

[NeoXChaos]

so if Trump won and divorced malania I guess Ivanka becomes first lady

 

[itschris]

Jamelle Bouie
‏@jbouie

Another tweet from my fav series of the RNC, "Republicans predict November."

Here's another one! Folks really think Trump will win New York.

You can't tell from the photo, but in this one NH and VT are R.

Hehe.

 

[Emarv]

Hehe.

WHAT A DREAM!

 

[Dan]

Hehe.

I see Microsoft decided they should stay involved in the convention.

 

[Officerrob]

All those maps have Trump winning Virginia, I guarantee Trump isn't winning Virginia

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hehe.

Bernie has a better chance of winning VT this Nov than Trump.

 

[Geg]

Hehe.

Oregon, Connecticut, and New Jersey turning red in that first one, lmao

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Turn It In said the chances of it being accident were 1 in a trillion.

An accident in the sense of having used the exact same phrasing by chance, sure. An accident in the sense of "I just watched the Michelle Obama speech and wanted to include this section similar to what she did but don't realize that her phrasing is in my head" is not something you can really put a likelihood on, though. My money's on the "included the passage, started to edit it, then moved on to other shit and forgot to come back to it" hypothesis, myself, but I'm just saying, people acting like it's SO impossible that it could have been a genuine lapse are being silly. Of course, why nobody at the campaign thought to put the speech through a Turn It In or some other kind of check, first, is beyond me.

 

[eBay Huckster]

OK, so we are staying at the other *other* hotel-with-water-park this year. But we stayed at that one the last couple of years.

wait, *which* hotel-with-water-park in Sandusky are we talking about here

(because I'm pretty sure I've literally stayed in all of them at this point thanks to that convention in June)

e: okay I'm surprised it was *that* one in particular that had the norovirus outbreak, usually it's the one on the other side of route 2 that's a big, fat mess

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

wait, *which* hotel-with-water-park in Sandusky are we talking about here

(because I'm pretty sure I've literally stayed in all of them at this point thanks to that convention in June)

e: okay I'm surprised it was *that* one in particular that had the norovirus outbreak, usually it's the one on the other side of route 2 that's a big, fat mess

Great Wolf Lodge?

I was only thinking of that one and Kalahari, I've stayed at both.

 

[Iolo]

An accident in the sense of having used the exact same phrasing by chance, sure. An accident in the sense of "I just watched the Michelle Obama speech and wanted to include this section similar to what she did but don't realize that her phrasing is in my head" is not something you can really put a likelihood on, though.

That simply beggars belief; the writer would need an absolutely exceptional memory to get all those words right in order without conscious repetition.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Great Wolf Lodge?

I was only thinking of that one and Kalahari, I've stayed at both.

naw, Maui Sands. I never hear anyone complain about GWL

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The My Little Pony stuff really demonstrates a problem with the new GOP. As Republican campaigns become more connected to the alt-right, you're going to fucking weirder and weirder comparisons because, along with being NeoNazis, the alt-right is weird as fuck so you end up with people on TV deciding that talking about MLP is a good idea because they're weird people.

Trump's campaign is going to probably reference something regarding "best girl" by November.

 

[thefro]

So the ticker at the Q arena is promoting Trump & Manfort parody accounts instead of the real accounts

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

naw, Maui Sands. I never hear anyone complain about GWL

Oh, I don't know that one. I guess there's more than 2.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

That simply beggars belief; the writer would need an absolutely exceptional memory to get all those words right in order without conscious repetition.

Maybe, as an actor who often has lines memorized by the first or second rehearsal, my perspective is different, but 22 words, especially when they have a rhetorical pattern, are not impossibly many to stick in your head, for this or that stupid reason. Again, I'm not saying that's the likeliest option, just that it's another possibility, and I'd be inclined to believe that over "they plagiarized it all on purpose".

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

 

[eBay Huckster]

I can't wait to see an actual winner in that arena again in 3 months

Oh, I don't know that one. I guess there's more than 2.

I have it on good authority that there are exactly three.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

The My Little Pony stuff really demonstrates a problem with the new GOP. As Republican campaigns become more connected to the alt-right, you're going to fucking weirder and weirder comparisons because, along with being NeoNazis, the alt-right is weird as fuck so you end up with people on TV deciding that talking about MLP is a good idea because they're weird people.

Trump's campaign is going to probably reference something regarding "best girl" by November.

Waifus? And if that is brought up.. I might die.

 

[Farmboy]

Maybe, as an actor who often has lines memorized by the first or second rehearsal, my perspective is different, but 22 words, especially when they have a rhetorical pattern, are not impossibly many to stick in your head, for this or that stupid reason. Again, I'm not saying that's the likeliest option, just that it's another possibility, and I'd be inclined to believe that over "they plagiarized it all on purpose".

I agree that most scenarios are more likely than 'they did it on purpose', except of course 'it's not plagiarism, it's a coincidence HEY LOOK A MAGICAL PONY'.

But I do think it's more likely that it started out being a direct copy/paste job that they meant to rewrite and, for some reason or other, a non-rewritten version ended up on the prompter. Either because they actually forgot to rewrite it, or they sent the wrong version to the prompter.

I think that's more likely than them having the 2008 speech in their head and accidentally writing it down near-verbatim.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

WaPo on Hillary's VP:

1a): Kaine
1b): Vilsack



3. Perez

Kaine and Vilsack do not seem like choices that would help Hillary win in November or to be presidents (if Hillary were to die) that would be as liberal as I would like. Kaine and Vilsack will have no important future in politics after this either so it's not really grooming anyone for 2024.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...189146-4d2d-11e6-aa14-e0c1087f7583_story.html

 

[nature boy]

WaPo saying it's between Kaine and Vilsack.