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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
phisheep said:
It depends very much on the manner of Trump's defeat (I'm not assuming a Trump defeat here - I won't assume anything any more, not after that Brexit vote - but if Trump wins then Cruz is toast anyway).

If Trump loses in a typically Republican way by basically following the demographics, then Cruz will have made a misjudgement.

But if Trump loses in a uniquely Trump way by alienating vaste swathes of the electorate and making loads of stupid bombastic baby errors, then Cruz is a visionary.
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Yep. Cruz actually best positioned himself here for a catastrophic Trump first term where he's vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Endorsing Trump isn't that much of a negative because everyone knows it was just towing the party line for the candidates who did it. A Trump loss--especially a narrow-ish one--could be blamed on Cruz, along with the four years of liberal darkness Clinton has plunged the country into by 2020.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
nature boy said:
Well from a democratic perspective this just shows how the GOP is divided - why would media outlets broadcast his speech if everyone is against him?

And what's the difference between Kasich and Cruz? Or Cruz and Bush? Or Cruz and Romney? That he's taking the piss on Trump's parade?
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The optics of just not going compared to taking the stage on Trump's celebration, pissing on the carpet and stealing the headlines are vastly different.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Dubbedinenglish said:
It was said here, if Trump's people organized the booing they made this blow up and turn it into a spectacle. If they let him speak, cheered and that's it this story would be a footnote.
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It was said by me I think. For all the "is this good for Cruz?" talk, I think the real story is that this is another example of Trump making the wrong move. Does anyone even remember what Pence said last night?
 
R

RDreamer

Member
I'm really baffled Scott Walker endorsed Trump last night. There's no way in hell Wisconsin goes for Trump and now there's video of him enthusiastically endorsing him. To me this says Walker probably isn't going to run again next election cycle. I can't see any gain to endorsing Trump if he's staying in it.
 
G

gcubed

Member
RDreamer said:
I'm really baffled Scott Walker endorsed Trump last night. There's no way in hell Wisconsin goes for Trump and now there's video of him enthusiastically endorsing him. To me this says Walker probably isn't going to run again next election cycle. I can't see any gain to endorsing Trump if he's staying in it.
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Scott Walker is the 2016 Bobby Jindal. Guys dead after he leaves Wisconsin
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
It was said by me I think. For all the "is this good for Cruz?" talk, I think the real story is that this is another example of Trump making the wrong move. Does anyone even remember what Pence said last night?
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I watched that entire boring speech and don't remembe anything outside of the Secretary of status quo bad joke
 
G

Geg

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Cruz may be getting killed today but if Trump losses huge Republicans will remember him as the guy who stood up to Trump in public. May not work out, but its a bold play for someone who is already intensely disliked.
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True but I could also see Republicans scapegoating Cruz as the one who cost Trump the presidency.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
I literally have no idea what Pence said in his speech last night. I have no inclination to actually watch the RNC so I'm just following it through the news and online etc. and I am not even 100% sure he spoke.
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I watched it and I don't think he said anything. I remember him making cartoonish faces and acting like he was on a kid's TV show, that's about it.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Everyone knows the party is divided, and it'll become worse as Trump goes further and further "out there." Cruz isn't going to be punished for anything. Especially after Trump loses big.

Reagan wasn't hurt in 1976, Cruz will be fine. I don't think he'll come close to the nom but it won't be due to this. He's not an establishment candidate, he's not relying on donations from those who are lining up behind Trump. In fact Trump is struggling with Texas donors, from the hardcore conservatives to the Bush allies.
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
watershed said:
I assume I'm not the right demo, but there is nothing appealing about Tim Kaine. He's generic democrat A as far as I am concerned. A not particularly young, not particularly liberal, white male democrat from Virginia. Nothing about this pick represents the future of our country.
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Why do you pick candidates based on how they "represent the future"? Bernie might represent the future, didn't mean he wasn't a shit candidate for the present who never actually started the political revolution he said was coming.
 
O

Owzers

Member
I think there will be only one presidential debate where Trump brings every insult possible then says they debated enough.
 
E

Effect

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
My biggest concern is Bernie delegates behaving themselves.
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This is my biggest concern. Or maybe they saw what happen this week and will play ball. Or they've accepted by now that Bernie lost. I think the most hardcore that can't let go will be outside or foolishly talking able Jill Stein.
 
V

Vahagn

Member
Cruz wins in the long term If Trump loses or if Trump wins and is a disaster.

Cruz seriously underestimates how much people hate him though. He's not winning the White House ever because people hate his guts.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Trump supporters are already going with the narrative that this brought the republican party together when really it only brought the people in that room (the vast majority of them being trump delegates anyway or willing to vote for Trump) together.

The real story that is being missed is that this convention is not supposed to be about making sure the party doesn't fall apart. Republicans are supposed to fall in line. This was supposed to ma a major attempt to woo the very moderate republicans/independents over to their side and increase Trump's numbers.
 
T

teiresias

Member
I swear, the Dem side is like some boring PBS special on the primary process, while the GOP side is basically an episode of House of Cards.

I do have to give it to Cruz how he's playing the media game well thus far after last night, he has better timing and responses than anything that's come out of the Trump camp all cycle. The end game depends on whether the media and the movement wing of the party decide to abandon the Trump base after he loses in November.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Cruz doesn't really win anything from this in 2020. He probably wasn't going to win the 2020 nomination anyway because he's still a regional candidate with narrow demographic appeal, but further cementing yourself as the candidate that's hated by everyone that doesn't self-identify as "very conservative" isn't a winning move. Trump isn't going to lose in a 1964 landslide that will make Cruz look like some sort of prophet and even if that did happen, it probably wouldn't be enough to offset being the guy who caused a civil war at a convention.
 
N

nature boy

Member
This is about gaining influence over the direction of the party after November, because Trump is not going to stay.


When in trouble, play the SC card!

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
Ted Cruz talks about the Constitution but doesn't say that if the Dems win the Presidency, the new JUSTICES appointed will destroy us all!
Click to expand...

AHAHAHAHA
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 9m9 minutes ago
Other than a small group of people who have suffered massive and embarrassing losses, the party is VERY united. Great love in the arena!
Click to expand...
 
S

studyguy

Member
Man, I haven't watched WWE in years, I see I've been missing out.
Good lord friends we still have one might night to go.

What's gonna be the grand finale? Trump actually shoots someone in the middle of the street as he boasted so many months ago? Personally I don't buy Ted carrying this to a 2020 nomination, he needs the Trump voters more than they need him next time around. Being the guy who can smirk and say I told you so doesn't sound like a politically viable strategy within the GOP of all parties.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Basileus777 said:
Cruz doesn't really win anything from this in 2020. He probably wasn't going to win the 2020 nomination anyway because he's still a regional candidate with narrow demographic appeal, but further cementing yourself as the candidate that's hated by everyone that doesn't self-identify as "very conservative" isn't a winning move. Trump isn't going to lose in a 1964 landslide that will make Cruz look like some sort of prophet and even if that did happen, it probably wouldn't be enough to offset being the guy who caused a civil war at a convention.
Click to expand...

I don't think Cruz is setting himself up to be president. He's setting himself up to be a weird version of Barry Goldwater. He wants to be a symbol of conservative purity whose ring candidates have to kiss to get his seal of conservative approval. He's setting himself up to be Bernie.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
nature boy said:
This is about gaining influence over the direction of the party after November, because Trump is not going to stay.


When in trouble, play the SC card!



AHAHAHAHA
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It will be interesting to see how Trump takes the Cruz backstabbing in his speech. Will he be magnanimous and praise Cruz, effectively painting Cruz as an incredulous ratfuck at the convention or will he launch into an off script tirade about Lyin Ted?
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
My god this top of the hour CNN intro lmao. Sad Christie, smirking Ted and Gloria saying "If you are invited to a dinner party you don't show up, eat the food, and then piss on the carpet."

Lawd this fuckery is too good for us.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
IggyChooChoo said:
I don't think Cruz is setting himself up to be president. He's setting himself up to be a weird version of Barry Goldwater. He wants to be a symbol of conservative purity whose ring candidates have to kiss to get his seal of conservative approval. He's setting himself up to be Bernie.
Click to expand...

Oh no. Cruz literally thinks he is the next Reagan. That's why he did what he did last night, echoing Reagan in 1976. He thinks he is going to get elected as president in 2020 and 2024.
 
K

kess

Member
What was Trump thinking when he invited Cruz. This was a classic Scorpion and the Frog moment. It's in his nature to fuck over everybody.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
kess said:
What was Trump thinking when he invited Cruz. This was a classic Scorpion and the Frog moment. It's in his nature to fuck over everybody.
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My guess is Trump was talked into it by Priebus.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Plinko said:
Oh no. Cruz literally thinks he is the next Reagan. That's why he did what he did last night, echoing Reagan in 1976. He thinks he is going to get elected as president in 2020 and 2024.
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I'm not saying Cruz won't run, but the position of conservative purity arbiter is a permanent one. Presidents come and go. Being able to say "I fought Donald and Donald lost because he wasn't a true conservative" is good for a lot of things.
 
O

Owzers

Member
kess said:
What was Trump thinking when he invited Cruz. This was a classic Scorpion and the Frog moment. It's in his nature to fuck over everybody.
Click to expand...

“It's in the book that he's got a pathological temper," he said. "That's a big problem because you don't cure that ... as an example: child molesting. You don't cure these people. You don't cure a child molester. There's no cure for it. Pathological, there's no cure for that."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/trump-carson-pathological-215816#ixzz4F3YWthWn
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He probably thought Cruz would just call Hillary Lucifer and they could be friends.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
kess said:
What was Trump thinking when he invited Cruz. This was a classic Scorpion and the Frog moment. It's in his nature to fuck over everybody.
Click to expand...
Trump is not a politician. He is a total amateur and does not have any experience dealing with insurgents like Cruz. This falls on Manafort.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Also I'm seriously considering going back to my rebel Cruz avatar

CRUZ_2_AP_879913176366.jpg
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
I worry that something like the "Palin effect" has set in with Trump's speech tonight. By that I mean with Palin in 2008 the bar was set so low by her buffoonery that when she did anything halfway competent people praised her more than they should have. Which makes me think that if Trump manages even a mediocre speech tonight that people will label it a triumph after all of the fuckery of the past few days.
 
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