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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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S

smurfx

get some go again
Diablos said:
Kaine, Vilsack and Stavridis.

She ended the interview, live, pleading with Rachel Maddow to not state that she spoiled the VP finalists. It was extremely awkward
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if it isn't warren i'm gonna go from enthusiastically backing clinton to just backing her because she is the democrat nominee.
 
J

Jeels

Member
smurfx said:
if it isn't warren i'm gonna go from enthusiastically backing clinton to just backing her because she is the democrat nominee.
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Among those three the only one I'd be inclined to accept is Stavridis...what terrible picks by Clinton in general...
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Aaron Strife said:
No Hispanic subset means they probably didn't poll enough of them to have reliable cross tabs. 74% white electorate would be significantly whiter than analysts have been predicting (closer to 69%).

Suffolk was also the pollster who in 2012 stopped polling Florida, North Carolina and Virginia early entirely because they had "painted them red" so I would take their assumptions about minority turnout with a grain of salt.
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You'd think a stunt like that would be enough for them to be rated at the bottom tier on 538 but apparently not.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Aaron Strife said:
No Hispanic subset means they probably didn't poll enough of them to have reliable cross tabs. 74% white electorate would be significantly whiter than analysts have been predicting (closer to 69%).

Suffolk was also the pollster who in 2012 stopped polling Florida, North Carolina and Virginia early entirely because they had "painted them red" so I would take their assumptions about minority turnout with a grain of salt.
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lol really?

Any pollster who does something as ridiculous as that should be rightfully ignored.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Measley said:
The massive minority undercount wouldn't surprise me. The media wants a horserace for the sake of ratings.

Remember in 2012 when conservatives were shocked that Obama beat Romney so badly? I think the same thing is going to happen here.

We should be happy though, keeping the narrative of a close race will help turn out the vote.
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I think the problem is also the media has more or less defined 2004 as the political norm. The big bad Republicans are the tough on terrists bullies on the playground, Democrats are bedwetting pencil pushers and in constant disarray. Minority turnout exploding in 08 is seen as an aberration, even though Obama did it again in 2012 - the Republicans are winning with the "important" voters (read: white people who might have been swingy in the past but have drifted further right due to discomfort with black people) so that's all that matters. Even in 2012 you had (granted, conservative) pundits openly questioning if Obama's victory was legitimate because he lost white voters so badly.

Conventional wisdom in this country needs a software upgrade. It's so much easier and lazier to spout off "Oh yeah, Republicans are fiscal conservatives and small government, Democrats are tax and spend sissies" than look at the fucking dumpster fire the party has been ever since Bush's reelection. Yeah, Trump is so tough in foreign relations that he just said he wouldn't side with NATO over Russia. Obama is such a liberal wiener that he cut like 3 trillion dollars in spending and killed Osama bin Laden. Fucking whatever.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
You'd think a stunt like that would be enough for them to be rated at the bottom tier on 538 but apparently not.
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http://archive.boston.com/political...mney-column/hQzH5It1ANgkYxbFcA1NJL/story.html

I'd imagine this didn't affect their rankings on 538 because it doesn't have anything to do with their methodology, but it certainly reflects poorly on their judgment.

Incidentally, you know what the polling averages were on the day they announced this? Romney up 3 in North Carolina, up just half a point in Florida and Obama leading by half a point in Virginia. This was blatant shilling for Romney if anything. If people were consistently finding Romney up 6 in one of those states across the board then yeah, maybe, but they clearly weren't.

Edit: lol their last poll of Florida even had Obama winning. What a fucking joke that was.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
For people who say that Kaine doesn't bring anything to the table from an electorate standpoint, the new Pew poll shows that catholic Republicans are far more willing to consider Clinton than other religious groups and Kaine's background can only help with that:

Cn5n8crWgAAoiF2.jpg
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
RDreamer said:
I'm really baffled Scott Walker endorsed Trump last night. There's no way in hell Wisconsin goes for Trump and now there's video of him enthusiastically endorsing him. To me this says Walker probably isn't going to run again next election cycle. I can't see any gain to endorsing Trump if he's staying in it.
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For what it's worth, the things I've heard from people very plugged into Wisconsin politics are that they'd be shocked if he ran for re-election in 2018. Word is he hates the job and knows he could make more money outside of government (he has substantial personal debt).
 
T

Teggy

Member
If you believe the press, Hillary is looking for someone that she can work well with because she saw the tension between Bill and Gore up close. This is the explanation for Vilsack and Kaine, who she knows very well.

It certainly won't placate the left, but there is also something to say about seeing a united front up there vs. two guys who don't know each other and make awkward air kisses.

edit: Pence claimed he didn't hear Cruz's whole speech lolololol.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Teggy said:
If you believe the press, Hillary is looking for someone that she can work well with because she saw the tension between Bill and Gore up close. This is the explanation for Vilsack and Kaine, who she knows very well.

It certainly won't placate the left, but there is also something to say about seeing a united front up there vs. two guys who don't know each other and make awkward air kisses.

edit: Pence claimed he didn't hear Cruz's whole speech lolololol.
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Well, I guess Warren was acting really well because they looked great together.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Also, if I know Hillary, she's had different choices tested to hell and back. She's got a great team, so I'll trust they know what they're doing.
 
D

digdug2k

Member
IggyChooChoo said:
I don't think Cruz is setting himself up to be president. He's setting himself up to be a weird version of Barry Goldwater. He wants to be a symbol of conservative purity whose ring candidates have to kiss to get his seal of conservative approval. He's setting himself up to be Bernie.
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WTF. Why do people think Cruz is playing some sort of long game here? I don't think the man could think that far ahead if he wanted to. Trump is a vile disgusting piece of human shit who said awful things about Cruz during the primary, then invited him to come endorse him later at the convention (because Trump has so much of an ego he just couldn't believe someone wouldn't want to suck his cock). Cruz took the opportunity to (in a pretty passive way) spit in his face. Trump deserves it. Trump deserves far more than that. But there's nothing else going on here. These men are children.

I really hope Hillary doesn't pick Kaine, but she probably will. With the exception of Palin, VP picks are always a lot of build up to something boring.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Cruz's move last night was very good from a personal vengeance perspective (what Trump said about Cruz's family was beyond the pale), but a really bad political idea.

I know a lot of Trump supporters and what you need to know about Trump supporters is that they're total losers who obsessively look for scapegoats for their failures. If Trump loses in November, Cruz is going to be hated by Trump supporters and that will lock him out of the nomination.
 
S

studyguy

Member
If Cruz leaves this election with the failure of Trump landing square on his head then we're all better off for it. Drag him and make the man politically unviable for future elections. It'd be the best thing.
 
M

minor effort

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Cruz's move last night was very good from a personal vengeance perspective (what Trump said about Cruz's family was beyond the pale), but a really bad political idea.

I know a lot of Trump supporters and what you need to know about Trump supporters is that they're total losers who obsessively look for scapegoats for their failures. If Trump loses in November, Cruz is going to be hated by Trump supporters and that will lock him out of the nomination.
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He's taking a big gamble on how he'll be perceived in four years in the event of a Trump loss, depending on whether Trump has any clout left in the GOP four years from now. If Trump loses and basically departs from politics altogether, Cruz can come off as looking like a strong "Told You So". If Trump decides to remain an active figure within the GOP, stumping for candidates in 2018 and 2020, he might be able to hold onto some of his influence in the party.

Some of this might depend on the margin Trump loses by in November.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Kristoffer said:
We're getting the leak today, right?!?
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VP? Probably Saturday. I think if the convention had been going well they'd try and take some thunder away, but this is a dumpster fire. They'll sit back and watch it burn on its own.
 
M

minor effort

Banned
Dubbedinenglish said:
Pls Trump go off script to attack Ted lol
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That's the best part about what Ted did. Trump should let it go and not even dignify it with a response, but he already has taken to Twitter to attack Cruz, and will probably continue doing so over the next few weeks, giving the story much longer legs than it otherwise would have had. Trump himself will be ultimately be the one to ensure Cruz is the defining moment of his RNC.

I think there's a non-zero chance he brings it up during his keynote speech tonight.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
teiresias said:
Frankly, anyone that knows and has any semblance of strategic thinking knows not to take eyes off of the catastrophic coverage from the RNC with a VP leak.
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No, I disagree. It's a fantastic foil. Trumpence disagrees internally, Cruz mutinies, RNC disaster, and from out of the sky... a hope. A song. A siren of justice and tranquility. The warm calm. Order.

Clinsack 2016.
 
T

Teggy

Member
RastaMentality said:
Well, I guess Warren was acting really well because they looked great together.
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They are friendly certainly, and can stump, but the word is Hillary doesn't think they would work together well because they do have some pretty different policy priorities and have not worked together before.

Again, this is just scuttlebutt, but interesting.


Benjy Sarlin ‏@BenjySarlin 3m3 minutes ago
That traitorous unforgivable speech from that unlikable loser was totally our idea, also it's great news
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heheheheh

urrggghhh this woman on CNN saying Trump was gracious for letting Ted speak (he needed his voters!) and for not firing plagiarism woman.
 
M

minor effort

Banned
gcubed said:
honestly.... Trump will be over politics before inauguration
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Yeah, I don't think his commitment to the party or the political process extends beyond himself. I expect the minute he no longer has a presidency to hope for, he's out of politics and back to hotels, golf courses, and steaks. He might hang around Fox News to remain a TV personality, but he probably won't remain a committed political figure.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Steve King 2020:

Speaking on the Mike Gallagher Show, King said white people need to be defended or Western civilization will erode. Gallagher sarcastically said to King, “Oh, you can’t say that, because you can attack white people, you can’t attack non-white people. That doesn’t work that way in 2016 America.”

King responded, saying, “But Mike, we have to plow into the middle of that and do that, or they’re gonna have us retreating to the point where they will have Western civilization eroded and disparaged. I mean, they did that in the beginning of the Dark Ages and we spent centuries of not being able to reason. I don’t want that to happen again.”
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https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/say-what?utm_term=.xmYG1Kjp5#.jk7lLe1Pm
 
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