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[Joe Shlabotnik]

I worry that something like the "Palin effect" has set in with Trump's speech tonight. By that I mean with Palin in 2008 the bar was set so low by her buffoonery that when she did anything halfway competent people praised her more than they should have. Which makes me think that if Trump manages even a mediocre speech tonight that people will label it a triumph after all of the fuckery of the past few days.

I am sure that is in play, and the bar is ridiculously low for Trump tonight...

...and Palin ultimately got creamed in the election. Not-dumpster-fire speech will not mean much in the long term, because Trump will always come back to being Trump.

 

[kess]

More publicity!

If he's ok with his wife being humiliated, why would he care that much about Cruz?

Yeah, but it's Donald Fucking Trump, who has all the publicity in the world. Not that I think Trump is above using Cruz to play some preening superiority game for himself. Trump will probably look good tonight in spite of this utter shitshow.

 

[Hopfrog]

I am sure that is in play, and the bar is ridiculously low for Trump tonight...

...and Palin ultimately got creamed in the election. Not-dumpster-fire speech will not mean much in the long term, because Trump will always come back to being Trump.

I do wonder if he will be able to show any restraint if the crowd starts chanting like "Lock her up!" like they have with previous speakers, or if he will just fully embrace the crazy.

 

[PantherLotus]

My big thing for everyone to remember re: Cruz is that politics has a long memory and political actors have a way of sticking around for a long, long freaking time. 2020 might be Cruz's immediate goal, I don't know.

The guy is 45. Politicians with his level of ambition, short of career-ending catastrophes, can play the game into their late 70s. He has 30 years to cash in what will be rightly held as a moment of significant valor.

Maybe he doesn't get the nomination, ever. Maybe he fizzles out and becomes a lobbyist, I don't know. But this is so much bigger than a 2020 run. Dude stood up to the party's nominee in his own house when nobody else dared. That takes a brass set and will be remembered basically forever.

 

[Plinko]

My goodness, somebody actually captured a pic of Cruz's teleprompter saying "elect the Trump/Pence ticket" and he never said it? That's insane.

 

[nature boy]

I worry that something like the "Palin effect" has set in with Trump's speech tonight. By that I mean with Palin in 2008 the bar was set so low by her buffoonery that when she did anything halfway competent people praised her more than they should have. Which makes me think that if Trump manages even a mediocre speech tonight that people will label it a triumph after all of the fuckery of the past few days.

It's going to be a Trump speech, and he'll go off in certain places.

Don't expect the eloquence and coherence of an Obama or Clinton speech.

Bar is higher after what happened the last 3 days.

 

[Holmes]

@ everyone praising Cruz.

 

[PantherLotus]

(fwiw i think Cruz is the slimiest, grossest politician i can remember in my lifetime)

(but Trump, my god)

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I worry that something like the "Palin effect" has set in with Trump's speech tonight. By that I mean with Palin in 2008 the bar was set so low by her buffoonery that when she did anything halfway competent people praised her more than they should have. Which makes me think that if Trump manages even a mediocre speech tonight that people will label it a triumph after all of the fuckery of the past few days.

I was more concerned about this before the convention actually started. Cruz going straight HAM on Trump last night and today has really raised the stakes. Now Trump has to show that he can bring the GOP together while reaching out to moderates. A safe, competent speech won't be enough to knock Machine Gun Ted off the front page.

 

[Kusagari]

I expect Trump to have a safe, fine speech for most of it. But I find it hard to believe he'll resist the temptation to go off beat and say something stupid before the end of it.

 

[nature boy]

Epic spin:

 

[sangreal]

I worry that something like the "Palin effect" has set in with Trump's speech tonight. By that I mean with Palin in 2008 the bar was set so low by her buffoonery that when she did anything halfway competent people praised her more than they should have. Which makes me think that if Trump manages even a mediocre speech tonight that people will label it a triumph after all of the fuckery of the past few days.

Palin's speech was a few days after she was picked. She wasn't exposed as an idiot beforehand

e: Oh, I think I see what you mean

 

[metalslimer]

So the My Little Pony RNC spokesperson's excuse is that they were acting with the information they had at the time.....that sounds a lot like the excuse used by the Butcher of Benghazi

Edit: Another funny thing is that while no one remembers what Mike Pence said at least they remember that he spoke. Eric Trump is getting no attention whatsoever lol.

 

[Brinbe]

Cruz made the right call personally/politically. After Trump takes the L in November, Ted'll be next in line and easily able to distance himself from the sinking ship.

Watching cnn right now though. The utter contempt on Trump Jr's face watching Cruz is hysterical.

 

[GusBus]

My big thing for everyone to remember re: Cruz is that politics has a long memory and political actors have a way of sticking around for a long, long freaking time. 2020 might be Cruz's immediate goal, I don't know.

The guy is 45. Politicians with his level of ambition, short of career-ending catastrophes, can play the game into their late 70s. He has 30 years to cash in what will be rightly held as a moment of significant valor.

Maybe he doesn't get the nomination, ever. Maybe he fizzles out and becomes a lobbyist, I don't know. But this is so much bigger than a 2020 run. Dude stood up to the party's nominee in his own house when nobody else dared. That takes a brass set and will be remembered basically forever.

Well said. I'm not sure people grasp how monumental, and effectively unprecedented his actions were.

 

[Anoregon]

I loathe Trump and despise Cruz and the fact that they hate each other is my favorite

 

[kess]

Kennedy was around 48 when he made his speech at the DNC in 1980

Not an encouraging thought for Paul Ryan

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I wonder if Melania will actually show up tonight lol

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Illinois delegate removed for outing herself as a white supremacist

http://www.pjstar.com/news/20160721...vention-delegates-credentials-for-racist-post

Not in this particular link, but her username on social media was "whitepride"

 

[nature boy]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 8m8 minutes ago
Dem pollster Mellman on Trump convention effect so far: "has hurt him a little, but probably hasn't made much difference"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 12m12 minutes ago
Dem pollster Garin on GOP convention strategy: "degree to which they're playing to base rather than larger audience is extraordinary"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 14m14 minutes ago
Democratic pollster Garin on GOP day 3: "they put a frosting of disorganization and disarray over seven layers of nuttiness"

HOLY SHIT

CNN NewsroomVerified account
‏@CNNnewsroom
.@RepPeteKing called Ted Cruz an "a--hole" -- "I'd probably use the same verbiage" says RNC's @seanspicer

https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/756149108092665856

 

[thefro]

haha, #TheTedWedding is trending now

 

[Plinko]

Epic spin:

I absolutely loathe how every single time a republican says something blatantly racist, violent, or stupid, they always just blame "the liberal media."

HOLY SHIT


https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/756149108092665856

See? Nobody in the party likes this guy. Nobody. This is making it worse, not better.

 

[Hindl]

I absolutely loathe how every single time a republican says something blatantly racist, violent, or stupid, they always just blame "the liberal media."



See? Nobody in the party likes this guy. Nobody. This is making it worse, not better.

I think what's worse than that when they do that and get called out, in addition to blaming the "liberal media", they then say that their campaign is about "the issues". Any time I hear "the media is trying to hide the fact that this campaign is about the issues" my blood boils

 

[Hazmat]

The degree to which no one is talking about Pence's speech is like easing into a nice hot bath.

 

[HylianTom]

The degree to which no one is talking about Pence's speech is like easing into a nice hot bath.

Pence? Who's that? I haven't see mention of him..

Spoiler

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Pence? Who's that? I haven't see mention of him..

Spoiler

I wouldn't be surprised if most people don't even know Trump's VP.

 

[sangreal]

So the My Little Pony RNC spokesperson's excuse is that they were acting with the information they had at the time.....that sounds a lot like the excuse used by the Butcher of Benghazi

Edit: Another funny thing is that while no one remembers what Mike Pence said at least they remember that he spoke. Eric Trump is getting no attention whatsoever lol.

that's okay, someone else from his litter is speaking tonight. Ivanka I think

 

[Spoiled Milk]

 

[Aaron Strife]

HOLY SHIT


https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/756149108092665856

Expecting a big collapse would be unrealistic as so many people are baked into their votes/party. The important thing was that Trump didn't get a convention bounce and if it's even hurting him a little that's great news for the Democrats.

I agree about the base comment - who does any of this appeal to besides people who were locked in for Trump? Even if the broader electorate doesn't trust Clinton much, I would venture not many of them agree with "lock her up" and even less with the nuttiest comments about lynching her and shit.

Ironically, the most endearing moment to the general electorate is probably Cruz's speech for giving more sensible Republicans and centrists an out.

 

[studyguy]

dem pant suits

 

[Plinko]

Amazing the difference between video and photo.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

ARG 7/17 - 7/20

Clinton 43
Trump 42

Amusingly, this is actually up a point for Clinton from ARG's last poll which showed a dead heat in May. Also, the crosstabs:

Whites:

Trump 47
Clinton 37

Blacks:

Clinton 92
Trump 3

 

[Plinko]

Can we all agree that Cruz speaking at the convention was Priebus' doing? I don't see any way Trump would have wanted it to happen.

 

[User 463088]

I wouldn't be surprised if most people don't even know Trump's VP.

They don't! They were going around Cleveland and asking delegates to pick Pence out of a line up of old white dudes.

People were picking Jerry Sandusky (the pedophile rapist from Penn State) more than they were picking the actual nominee. They fucked up his roll out TWICE. TWO TIMES.

I'm actually of half a mind to say that what Cruz did he did for principle. : gag : Like, obviously he thought it wouldn't be a fatal wound, but I think he had an ounce of self-respect left in him. (God knows why) This was him taking a stand and fuck the police. Or whatever.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Can we all agree that Cruz speaking at the convention was Priebus' doing? I don't see any way Trump would have wanted it to happen.

All the media insider types are saying that Manfort engineered the Cruz speech to show party unity. Whoops...

 

[Bowdz]

The degree to which no one is talking about Pence's speech is like easing into a nice hot bath.

Who?

 

[Dierce]

I absolutely loathe how every single time a republican says something blatantly racist, violent, or stupid, they always just blame "the liberal media."
.

Not only that, they hide behind their supporters as some sort of shield. Their thought process to justify horrible things is basically, "see these people also agree with me so why not go after all of them as well if what I'm saying is so wrong."

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

ARG 7/17 - 7/20

Clinton 43
Trump 42

Amusingly, this is actually up a point for Clinton from ARG's last poll which showed a dead heat in May. Also, the crosstabs:

Whites:

Trump 47
Clinton 37

Blacks:

Clinton 92
Trump 3

What about hispanics? White women?

 

[Aaron Strife]

ARG 7/17 - 7/20

Clinton 43
Trump 42

Amusingly, this is actually up a point for Clinton from ARG's last poll which showed a dead heat in May. Also, the crosstabs:

Whites:

Trump 47
Clinton 37

Blacks:

Clinton 92
Trump 3

Um. Hm.

If the numbers are that high with blacks and barely under Obama's total with whites she should be much higher. Unless they have a shoddy Hispanic sample of they're massively low balling minorities.

 

[Plumbob]

What is Manafort anyway? A manatee pokemon?

 

[kirblar]

Um. Hm.

If the numbers are that high with blacks and barely under Obama's total with whites she should be much higher. Unless they have a shoddy Hispanic sample of they're massively low balling minorities.

They're massively lowballing minorities.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Amazing the difference between video and photo.

Bruh, there's no difference. It's just white people pointing, I'm not gonna pretend to understand it.

 

[metalslimer]

They're massively lowballing minorities.

Yeah it really doesn't make any sense. Clinton having a huge lead with Asians, blacks, and Latinos shouldn't lead to only a 1 point lead when she isn't down that much with whites.

 

[User 463088]

Um. Hm.

If the numbers are that high with blacks and barely under Obama's total with whites she should be much higher. Unless they have a shoddy Hispanic sample of they're massively low balling minorities.

They don't provide breakdowns for any group other than white and blacks.

They also have an electorate that's more white than 2012, and more male than any election since...well I stopped checking after 1992. I mean they're a terrible pollster anyway, but ya. They don't really give good demo breakdownds.

 

[Suikoguy]

Who?

I think it was Donald Trump trying to talk about the Pound and accidentally saying the Pence.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

What about hispanics? White women?

Um. Hm.

If the numbers are that high with blacks and barely under Obama's total with whites she should be much higher. Unless they have a shoddy Hispanic sample of they're massively low balling minorities.

Here are the crosstabs (ignore the highlighted box, just a capture screw-up). No Hispanic polling(?)

Also, my mistake, this is a big drop for Clinton from their June poll, which wasn't included in their polling history on TPM for some reason.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

In other good polling news Ras has Trump up only 1 point

 

[Aaron Strife]

Here are the crosstabs (ignore the highlighted box, just a capture screw-up). No Hispanic polling(?)

Also, my mistake, this is a big drop for Clinton from their June poll, which wasn't included in their polling history on TPM for some reason.

No Hispanic subset means they probably didn't poll enough of them to have reliable cross tabs. 74% white electorate would be significantly whiter than analysts have been predicting (closer to 69%).

Suffolk was also the pollster who in 2012 stopped polling Florida, North Carolina and Virginia early entirely because they had "painted them red" so I would take their assumptions about minority turnout with a grain of salt.

 

[Wilsongt]

I find it humerous that God Supreme Reagan tore down a wall, but Tangerine Dream Trump wants to build one.

 

[Measley]

Um. Hm.

If the numbers are that high with blacks and barely under Obama's total with whites she should be much higher. Unless they have a shoddy Hispanic sample of they're massively low balling minorities.

The massive minority undercount wouldn't surprise me. The media wants a horserace for the sake of ratings.

Remember in 2012 when conservatives were shocked that Obama beat Romney so badly? I think the same thing is going to happen here.

We should be happy though, keeping the narrative of a close race will help turn out the vote.