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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
3) ACA repeal is only stalled out because of infighting within the GOP. The idea that they care about some random Utah democrats complaining in an R+50 district is insane and totally at odds with the last 6 years.
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No objection to the rest of your post but I think the concern is that the left is mobilizing nationwide, not just in the R+50 Utah district. Chaffetz isn't worried about reelection but Don Bacon (an excellent name) probably sees what's happening in Chaffetz's R+50 district and gets much more nervous about his R+2 district, or that Florida congressman getting boo'd when he said death panels, or that video of the Tennessee woman (in Blackburn's district, I think, but not quite sure) yelling at her representative about how it's a Christian duty to keep the ACA and getting applauded. Chaffetz is safe, but not everyone is in Utah.

Remember how everyone complained about how some random Missouri poll would lower Clinton's chances in Michigan in Silver's model, but that actually was an important sign of things to come? I think it's like that.

Carpe Libertatem said:
I think he could be. His Twitter has always been fantastic

Shit, between him and McCaskill the Missouri Senate Twitter accounts would be #1 in the world
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You guys need to be in charge of teaching red states how to win elections.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
AntraxSuicide said:
1) Those courts are literally about to be tipped in favor of the EO's if we agree with you and don't block Gorsuch.

2) Flynn got forced out by rogue unelected spooks that are entirely extrajudicial.

3) ACA repeal is only stalled out because of infighting within the GOP. The idea that they care about some random Utah democrats complaining in an R+50 district is insane and totally at odds with the last 6 years.

4) Go ahead and hold your breath over these GOP investigations into Trump. I won't be joining you.
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1) We can't block Gorsuch. Period. He is going in if they want. There is jack and shit the Dems can do. Trump's team isn't even bothering to take many of them to SCOTUS (like the immigration EO); because they know they'll lose. Remember that even with Gorsuch, they still have to persuade Kennedy.

2) You mean people in government and intelligence community who saw something going wrong and spoke out? Hrm...that seems like it has happened before.

3) The in-fighting amongst the GOP is because gerrymandering districts makes you far, far more vulnerable to a wave election, and so many of those reps who are in 60/40 districts realize a ten point swing is enough to unseat them. The in-fighting is occurring because of the tension between Republicans in extremely safe seats and those who are not in safe enough of a seat to destroy ACA and suffer no consequences. Add in a disorganized WH that may not be providing much leadership and cat-herding, and you have a recipe for gridlock.

4) Been less than 2 months and Trump has taken some extremely strong body blows to his plans, and is staring down a special prosecutor with GOP support from the Senate.
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
whyamihere said:
He couldn't unload on Lil' Marco this way.
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Well, true, but only because they'd both be Senators. He could make an equally good tweet, though. His Twitter is just consistently pretty great.

Bonen no Max'd said:
You guys need to be in charge of teaching red states how to win elections.
Click to expand...

Bad opponents helps a lot :lol Don't think Kander would have done as well if Blunt wasn't just a slimy politician with a family of lobbyists. Still would've outrun Hillary by a lot, though.
 
B

bangbang i'm a timpani

Banned
This is getting passed around twitter, is it accurate? Saying FBI just released a giant dump on the trump management company:
https://vault.fbi.gov/trump-management-company/Trump Management Company Part 01 of 01/view


edit: Got to be, google says its only 30 minutes old.


Trump Management Company - FBI — The Vault
https://vault.fbi.gov/trump-management-company
25 mins ago - This release consists of FBI materials on an investigation conducted between 1972 and 1974 into allegations that the Trump Management Company had ...
Trump Management Company Part 01 of 01 - FBI — The Vault
https://vault.fbi.gov/trump-management.../Trump Management Company ...
30 mins ago - Vault Home • Trump Management Company • Trump Management Company ... Trump Management Company Part 01 of 01.pdf — PDF document, 21,551 kB ...
 
K

kcp12304

Banned
MIller's Year Book

75
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Cybit said:
1) We can't block Gorsuch. Period. He is going in if they want. There is jack and shit they can do. Trump's team isn't even bothering to take many of them to SCOTUS (like the immigration EO); because they know they'll lose. Remember that even with Gorsuch, they still have to persuade Kennedy.

2) You mean people in government and intelligence community who saw something going wrong and spoke out? Hrm...that seems like it has happened before.

3) The in-fighting amongst the GOP is because gerrymandering districts makes you far, far more vulnerable to a wave election, and so many of those reps who are in 60/40 districts realize a ten point swing is enough to unseat them. The in-fighting is occurring because of the tension between Republicans in extremely safe seats and those who are not in safe enough of a seat to destroy ACA and suffer no consequences. Add in a disorganized WH that may not be providing much leadership and cat-herding, and you have a recipe for gridlock.

4) Been less than 2 months and Trump has taken some extremely strong body blows to his plans, and is staring down a special prosecutor with GOP support from the Senate.
Click to expand...

You're making the argument that a conservative court is going to hold back conservatives. I'm going to disagree.

And yes, that was also an example of a thing you're railing against that worked out. This is my whole point! It's why Pigeon brought up Watergate before! You can't argue "we should be playing by the rules of decorum" if there are already examples of extrajudicial actions saving our bacon. Your criticism of the succession talk is no different than the GOP criticizing the IC right now. It's bunk.

Most of the GOP doesn't care. Someone posted pages ago that it'd take a 10 point generic ballot to rid us of Ryan, and that's still in 2 years! If not for GOP infighting, we'd have already lost the ACA and millions would be losing their coverage. Government institutions aren't keeping those people healthy, incompetence is.

I repeat in stronger terms, the GOP will do nothing about Trump at all. They will investigate themselves and find no wrongdoing. All this post says to me is that you genuinely bought it when McCain and Graham said they'd vote no on some Cabinet picks. Hook, line, and sinker.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
BigJonsson said:
CNN saying the Pentagon may recommend combat troops in Northern Syria.......that would be a nightmare
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Hillary hawk something hawk Hillary

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-comey-hillary-clinton_us_58617933e4b0eb586486f317

“I think Trump is far less likely to get us involved in endless war in the Middle East,” Bagley, a native of Portsmouth, New Hampshire, said. “And the thing to me that is most important is not getting into unnecessary wars. Trump might be more likely to press the nuclear button than Hillary. But I put the chances of a nuclear war at 0.00001 percent. I put chances of a war in the Middle East with Hillary at nearly 100 percent.”
Click to expand...
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
AntraxSuicide said:
You're making the argument that a conservative court is going to hold back conservatives. I'm going to disagree.

And yes, that was also an example of a thing you're railing against that worked out. This is my whole point! It's why Pigeon brought up Watergate before! You can't argue "we should be playing by the rules of decorum" if there are already examples of extrajudicial actions saving our bacon. Your criticism of the succession talk is no different than the GOP criticizing the IC right now. It's bunk.

Most of the GOP doesn't care. Someone posted pages ago that it'd take a 10 point generic ballot to rid us of Ryan, and that's still in 2 years! If not for GOP infighting, we'd have already lost the ACA and millions would be losing their coverage. Government institutions aren't keeping those people healthy, incompetence is.

I repeat in stronger terms, the GOP will do nothing about Trump at all. They will investigate themselves and find no wrongdoing. All this post says to me is that you genuinely bought it when McCain and Graham said they'd vote no on some Cabinet picks. Hook, line, and sinker.
Click to expand...

1) The court will be as conservative as it was before, when it kept ACA, passed gay marriage, and has rebuffed challenges to Roe v Wade. They're replacing Scalia - you're back to the same court we've had through the end of the Obama administration. Legally speaking, the immigration EO was dead in the water the second Giuliani talked about it being a muslim ban.

2) There is a large difference between whistleblowers and ignoring explicit instructions in the constitution. If you legitimately think that Deep Throat leaking reports to journalists (who had to go and verify them in other places) is the same as saying "well, we don't like the succession rules in the Constitution (because they don't give us the president we want), so we're just going to ignore them". No one would be saying a word about "special elections" if the Speaker of the House was a Democrat.

Honestly, this entire thing smacks of "we want to install our leader, damn the Constitution", and the Russians are our excuse. If Ryan had any link to the Russians, or there was any evidence that the Republican Party as a whole was working with the Russians and they had actually meddled in our election beyond making facebook bait pages - that would be one thing. But there's been zero evidence or inkling of that. Wanting special elections because the Speaker of the House is also a Republican is just dangerously authoritarian, and I've seen enough bitterness and "ends justify the means" reasoning this election to believe that there is a subset of progressives who are mad not because Trump's an authoritarian, but because Trump's not a progressive authoritarian.

3) People fighting back and going to their representatives' town halls are what's causing this. Mass protests with millions of people in the streets are what's causing this. GOP incompetence is helping, sure, but without the GOP reps and senators who are sitting in primarily purple-y areas feeling massive heat, you don't have the in-fighting occur to begin with. Y'all don't think it was kinda coincidental that right as the protests started occurring it all ground to a screeching halt?

4) Heh, I've been the one telling folks that I didn't want Trump to win the primary because the GOP falls in line. I know they weren't gonna stop the cabinet nominees. But the GOP will fall in line as long as it gets them elected - the GOP's best move has been to align falling in line with getting re-elected. But when falling in line starts to diverge with being re-elected (say, with a very unpopular president) - you'll start seeing some parts of the GOP defect to try to save their behinds.

EDIT: And I'll just leave it at that. I get that Trump is Nixon-esque in terms of threat to the presidency, but I am far more unwilling to just throw everything out the window at the drop of a hat, especially when, frankly, we've dealt with Nixon without having to nuke the Constitution from orbit. I get there are people who are far more about ends justify the means and far more willing to go to extra-Constitutional means to get that W - but even as someone who is relatively impacted (brown man with a beard whose family lives in rural IL) by the insanity going on, I'm genuinely terrified that American society's focus on winning at all costs is going to cost us our republic / democracy, and maybe it's not as apparent right now, but this country's freaking special and I don't want it to turn into Europe 2.0.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Deploying combat troops in Syria is pretty out there. Once you deploy those soldiers they have a tendency to stick around.

Don't know were exactly the administration will deploy the troops to. If its with the Kurds/SDF then it will cause huge tensions with the Turks and the Russians/Assad won't like it at all. It will legitimize the SDF.

They could deploy with the Turks and rebels in N.Aleppo. However that might be worse option considering the complicated relationship between the Turks and Russians, plus many of the rebels with the Turks are Islamists.

Helping the Russians and the government is probably the worst of the bunch. Anybody can they think of the bad outcomes with these.

Regardless, of who they support unless the government the US will officially have invaded another country and ISIS will have more tools for recruitment. ISIS has been itiching to fight the Americans.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
You're making the argument that a conservative court is going to hold back conservatives. I'm going to disagree.
Click to expand...
You're framing it incorrectly.
Trump's travel-ban EO wasn't "conservative", but arguably unconstitutional, and I would think Gorsuch and other conservative judges would feel the same.
 
M

mo60

Member
whyamihere said:
http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/general/18_candidates_enter_6th_congressional_district_race



Democrats were most worried that Sally Harrell might jump in, but without her, there aren't really any credible challengers on the Democratic side for Ossoff. GOP side is, of course, a mess.

This is a jungle primary so the top 2 make it to the runoff.
Click to expand...

Will we finally get the democrat vs democrat race we have been waiting for special election since the Lousiana senate race last year?
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
Blader said:
Also, on Warren: the shrill voice misogyny is real, even among the left. I know more than a few Democrats -- especially middle-aged and older men -- who voted for Hillary but just didn't like her look or her laugh or the sound of her voice. That kind of bullshit may be sexist but it does influence voters. And I live in the Northeast, so it's easy to imagine that effect being even more pronounced in driving away independents or Never Trumpers out in the Midwest or something. I don't think Warren will be able to escape that kind of bias, and it's partly why I'm into Kamala: she's a strong speaker, but I also think the tenor (timbre?) of her voice avoids that "shrill" sound that Hillary and Warren have. It's pretty gross that this is even a factor, but, well, it's something that impacts voters nonetheless.
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I can think of only one shrill, blonde Democratic woman that could muster up enough votes to win over America's voters and follow up a Trump presidency and that's only because it happened already in a fictional animated universe that had the audacity to suggest a disastrous Trump presidency almost 17 years ago.

Joe Shlabotnik said:
Hillary had a 54% approval rating in January 2013 and was leading every hypothetical GOP candidate by 14 points except Christie (lol).

In November her approval was the same (also +20 overall, +12 with independents) and was leading Christie by 13 and Rand Paul (lolol) by 17.

This means that either:

A) Polls four years out are dumb
B) Warren will lose the popular vote 95 to -15 in 2020
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This is also true. It's far too early to jump to conclusions about what the political climate will be like 3 3/4 years from now when we've just seen how rapidly things can change in the span of the past 4 weeks.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
kirblar said:
FBI's vault page is legit.

Holy shit they've turned on him fast.
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Doesn't this just mean they received a FOIA request and had no reason to deny it?

Also, were those files retrieved from microfiche that they left out in the sun for 40 years? The quality is atrocious. I'm surprised they could tell what words even needed to be redacted.
 
C

chadskin

Member
Staff at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have been told that President Donald Trump is preparing a handful of executive orders related to the agency, to be signed once a new administrator is confirmed, two sources who attended the meeting told Reuters on Wednesday.

The sources, who asked not to be named, said a senior EPA official who had been briefed by members of the Trump administration mentioned the executive orders at a meeting of staffers in the EPA's Office of General Counsel on Tuesday, but did not provide details about what the orders would say.

"It was just a heads up to expect some executive orders, that's it," one of the sources said.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-epa-idUSKBN15U2MW
 
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