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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
- Start date
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TestOfTide
Banned
Where would Dems be if Black and Hispanic turnout rate was anywhere close to White turnout rate.
Just having Black turnout rate at 65% and Hispanic at 55% would be amazing for 2020.
One of the main goals of 2018 needs to be maximizing turnout among the Obama Coalition.
BoosterDuck
Banned
because Street Fighter Turbo was godlike
Where would Dems be if Black and Hispanic turnout rate was anywhere close to White turnout rate.
Just having Black turnout rate at 65% and Hispanic at 55% would be amazing for 2020.
This says nothing about the relative contribution of each demographic to the total vote counts.
StopMakingSense
Member
Yeah, the whole thing was pretty snooze worthy.
Yep. They would do it based on some illicit private Russian deal that benefitted his family, or nepotism, or something like that. But not something Republican related at alrge.
balladofwindfishes
Member
52% to 41% was the polling in November, according to Wikipedia.
Actual results were 49/41
Do yea, looks like everyone on both sides made the call that it wasn't worth their time.
Aaron Strife
Banned
iirc polls had Clinton winning by double digits. He didn't quite match that (9 point win), turnout probably dropped because everyone thought he was locked in.
Yup, I've been saying this. The Republican party is rotten to the core and they won't touch Trump. His floor is around 40%, 80+% among Republicans. They aren't going to turn.
Careful though, some people might accuse you of being a secret Trump supporter who just doesn't want anything to happen.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Great thread, but I would still say Andrew Jackson telling the Supreme Court to go fuck themselves before attempting a genocide is still probably the biggest snub to checks and balances so far and the biggest case for impeachment in U.S. history.
tedrotheredro
Member
Anytime there's a huge controversy, the press conference starts off with a guest. It never fails.
TestOfTide
Banned
I'd be more inclined to say that his current "floor" is 35% among everyone and 75% among republicans.
However:
- What we also need to check is how many republicans switched to independent due to trump especially for areas where independents can vote in GOP primaries
- Just like how the constant attacks on Hillary managed to convince even numerous democrats to not like her, the constant attacks on Trump do in fact wear down his base, just very slowly (remember that it has only been 5 months)
- republican base don't mean shit to some of the groups that Trump has declared war on (for example, do you really think the IC gives a shit about Trump's fanbase at this point?)
- Trump is only immune from going to prison so long as he is still in office. the moment he is no longer POTUS is the moment he is vulnerable to criminal charges, and him going to jail WOULD demoralize his base
- Trump still hasn't done much to directly negatively affect his voters yet. I seriously doubt that his floor would remain at 35% if he caused an economic crash or somehow caused thousands to die.
True. Trump has been eager to let us all know how much he admires Jackson though.
sir_kevith
Member
Watching the press briefing.
You guys got your tickets to the Trump Embarrassment Tour 2017?
You guys got your tickets to the Trump Embarrassment Tour 2017?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
A Serious Man
Member
I can't even fathom how badly Trump is going to fuck this trip up.
Those are all fair points, I'm just a little more pessimistic about the impact I guess in the short term.
I've said for a while though that I could see the possibility of 2020 being a great year for democrats.
TestOfTide
Banned
The thing is you have to remember who (in the US) are on each side:
Trump's side has:
- Trump
- His Hardcore Fanbase of mostly rural voters (who are kinda dying off)
- His not-so-hardcore fanbase that KNOW he is dumb but are too partisan to admit it
- Most Republican Politicians
- Congress
- Senate (barely)
- Fox News
- Breitbart
- NY Criminal Field Office of the FBI
Meanwhile our side has:
- Pretty much every democrat
- independents
- Intelligence Community
- The rest of the FBI
- Now Comey's friends
- The free press
- Courts (SCOTUS has ruled against far-right anti-immigrant bullshit before)
- old-school conservatives and Neo-conservatives
- Pretty much every Trump voter that only voted for Trump because they hate Hillary
Baron von Loathsome
Member
Until midterms, we can only hope that Republicans get hounded by their constituents enough to put country before party.
Not much I can do in my case, I'm represented by Kamala Harris, Dianne Feinstein, and another Democrat rep.
Dole is also like the worst nominee the GOP has had since I don't even know when
I'd say Trump is but he won, dammit... and he knew how to campaign
balladofwindfishes
Member
Same here, Louise Slaughter, Schumer and Gillibrand. And Cuomo.
There's only so many emails I can send saying "Hey, thanks for being not evil and wanting to take healthcare away!"
It's kind of frustrating to just watch everything from the side lines and not be able to really vote to kick out any idiots.
Bob Dole was the John Kerry of Republicans, e.g. find a bland but imminently respectable war hero and see if you can't win off of respectability vs an incumbent seen as sleazy (Clinton) or clownish (Bush).
A Serious Man
Member
Because the war on drugs worked so well the first time.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
Imagine how I feel living in Delaware. Not only are my 3 elected officials Dems already I don't even get to sort-of matter in presidential election years.
If your goal is to incarcerate large numbers of black, brown and poor people, then yes it was a resounding success.
It's a feature and not a bug for sessions.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Pretty sure it worked very well from Sessions' perspective...
TestOfTide
Banned
Well, I'm in MA, so I'll be doing my part to do the impossible and somehow get Charlie Baker unseated. Gonna be hard though because Baker has so far played it VERY smart (he's basically the antiTrump).
I'll also be doing my part to make sure Warren wins reelection.
Also, now that I have more time to post:
Your employer being able to deny you health coverage, high risk pools, less coverage under regular plans, and the numerous other things the AHCA would do is not worth political gain as in Republicans losing Congress. Also the Senate looks to be a lost cause. I'm sorry but I'd rather see this bill fall flat again.
Dominican Power
Member
Trump and his people are always the victims.
They don't get enough credit.
Also dodged that tape question.
The president has no comment on whether he tapes conversations...that's not good enough.
nintendoman58
Member
The Senate is a lost cause for 2018 or for the AHCA?
Yup that's my issue living in Boston
Yeah I'm really struggling with that, people like Baker and he's been doing everything right. The right Dem needs to step up
Probably 2018, almost all of the seats up for election are Dem seats. There would have to be a slaughter for the Dems to take the majority
TestOfTide
Banned
ACA only hurt democrats because most of the benefits of the bill didn't take effect until 2014.
Also, no one was calling it the ACA. Both democrats and Republicans were all calling it "Obamacare" to easily demonize it.
And finally you have to remember that a lot of those seats that Democrats lost were seats that McCain had won but the Democrat had won in the house race.
Many of those seats have become safe red just due to how much more partisan politics has become the last 8 years.
The best we can hope for in the Senate races for 2018 is:
- Dems win Texas, Arizona, and Nevada somehow
- Dems only lose Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, and West Virginia
And that's still a net gain of 2 seats for the republicans.
Now the Governor Races? Lots of opportunities for Dems to win seats, including:
- Massachusetts
- New Hampshire
- Maryland
- Vermont
- Nevada
- Texas
- Florida
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Illinois
- New Mexico
- Alaska
- Kansas
2018. You'd need a crazy crazy crazy wave to both defend every seat AND take the GOP ones. Standing pat is a win because of how lopsided the map is.
Senate is a lost cause in general because of the seats that are up. AHCA or not.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
His social media director / whatever Don Scavino probably types a lot of them. But I can't imagine he's there at all of Trump's tweeting hours either so it might be the one modern technological function Trimp has managed to internalize.
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
seab spicer: i no longer talk to or ask question in regards to the president. I dont know, I havent asked."
Spoiled Milk
Banned
CNN's chyron game has really been on point this year lol.
Who's a big boy? You are, Mr. President!!
Seriously tho, keep stuffing your face thru your incredibly stressful Presidency. So great for your heath, Don.
BotoxAgent
Member
HAHA!! wut
IggyChooChoo
Member
How Heller and Flake deal with the bill will be very telling.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Dat Spice Mobile https://twitter.com/elanazak/status/863010344343670785
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