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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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J

jtb

Banned
Carpe Libertatem said:
I think she'll be fine, but she's an incredibly divisive figure in the state. And she's no Jason Kander.

Probably depends more on who will run against her.
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Well, she has won two more Senate elections than Kander has heh

I think that may be another hidden advantage that Dems have. It may be difficult to field Senate challengers during an uphill wave. Is this the right time to tie your career to the Trump GOP? May see a lot of potential GOP candidates trickle down to the Governors races instead.

Also 2016 (and 2012 for that matter) just reinforced to me how strong incumbency advantage is in the Senate. I know, presidential years, but still. Fuck. We should've done so much better. So many seats left on the table.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Grym said:
lol

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trumps-tax-law-firm-deep-ties-russia/story?id=47376041
Click to expand...
922754.jpg

(Ivory = Russia ties)
 
J

jtb

Banned
3 tossup-ish states is still more than what Ds have to work with during this election lol

Though I guess in five years, you could say that CO will be as blue as AZ is red at this point
 
O

Ogodei

Member
jtb said:
and then those D challengers will get swamped again with the backlash against a first-term Pres Tulsi lol



Nowhere to go but up.

Only NH, CO, NV really look all that vulnerable.
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? New Hampshire's senators are both Dems?

Or do you mean that Hassan will be vulnerable in 2022?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
jtb said:
Nowhere to go but up.

Only NH, CO, NV really look all that vulnerable.
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Yup, and we have rematches in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin... Some of those may have trended even further away from us by then but it wouldn't hurt to try (especially somewhere like Iowa which could very well be an open seat).

I feel if there's anything that we can gleam from recent Nevada/Colorado elections it's that we should be fine as long as we don't completely blow it.

Nevada in 2012 pissed me off because people spent months talking about how unbeatable Heller was and he only took it by a point. Already seeing the same with Maryland and Massachusetts governor's races next year, it's defeatist and harmful.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Spicer said it wasn't a threat, he stated a fact when it came to the tapes tweet.

So the meeting being taped was a fact?
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
jtb said:
Well, she has won two more Senate elections than Kander has heh

I think that may be another hidden advantage that Dems have. It may be difficult to field Senate challengers during an uphill wave. Is this the right time to tie your career to the Trump GOP? May see a lot of potential GOP candidates trickle down to the Governors races instead.

Also 2016 (and 2012 for that matter) just reinforced to me how strong incumbency advantage is in the Senate. I know, presidential years, but still. Fuck. We should've done so much better. So many seats left on the table.
Click to expand...

That is true, but one was in 06 and the other was against Todd Akin! Although 18 is shaping up to be similar to 06, if not even worse.

I'd guess a few of the House members will be interested, plus that one Nascar driver. Ann Wagner is who I'd put money on. Does open up her House seat at least.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Diablos said:
For fucks sake

Nixon would be jealous of this WH
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He should be jealous of any 2000's era republican president. Must be nice to have a giant conservative media industry trying to defend your every move, while republicans in congress will largely ignore or defend absolutely anything you do as long as you help them accomplish their dreams of giving billionaires huge tax cuts.
 
B

Blader

Member
I think Donnelly is the most vulnerable next year. Tester might be second, but I guess we'll see how it goes with Quist.
 
J

jtb

Banned
I think Nelson's probably in for a tough re-election just because it's always tough in Florida and the state party there seems to be in permanent disarray.
 
G

Greigor The Fellhand

Member
Spoiled Milk said:
wait I thought the tape talk was just trump blowing smoke, is this a real thing we're talking about now



what the hell is this, the fbi financial crimes division?
Click to expand...


it was rumored before the sale appeared that russia promised 20% of rosenfit (russias state oil company) to trump camp as payment. (worth a few billion)

then like two weeks later the sale of 19.5% of rosenfit appeared and to whom it was sold to is secret
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Nelson won by like 13 points in Florida when Obama won by like 1, I don't think anyone needs to worry about him.

Honestly until polls/strong challengers show up for these races I'm not going to worry about anyone from a state Obama won.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Do you guys think that there should be an investigation into the GOP leadership that is protecting Trump and actively interfering with a serious investigation?

They wont let us see his tax returns, they put a member of Trumps transition team in charge of the house investigation, then defended Nunez after his fuckery with the press conferences, at the senate hearings they're talking about leaks, emails, and anything else they can think of to distract from the russia investigation, they're sitting by while the president admits to firing the FBI director to stop the investigation, at what point does this become not okay? I know politicians are generally going to defend their party, but this doesnt seem normal.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PPP keeps trickling out House polls, and today's looks at AZ-2, Martha McSally who trails a generic Democrat 43-50. Her job approval is atrocious as well, 35/56.

This was the closest House race in the country in both 2012 and 2014, but McSally walked away with it in 2016. Seems like a good low-hanging fruit. Sabato has it at Leans R.

Btw this is the woman who shouted "let's fucking do this!" right before the House GOP voted to strip 24 million Americans of health insurance.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm not sure how to view Rick Scott as a challenger though...
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As of last May, his approval rating was 49/41, which isn't Brownback level but is still pretty bad, especially for challenging a three term incumbent who regularly does incredibly well even though the state party is pretty worthless.

If Rick Scott runs against him and the polls show it as a tight race, then I'll be worried.
 
J

jtb

Banned
I didn't even realize Patrick Murphy was a former Republican? Why does the party keep running these former Republicans in Florida?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
PPP keeps trickling out House polls, and today's looks at AZ-2, Martha McSally who trails a generic Democrat 43-50. Her job approval is atrocious as well, 35/56.

This was the closest House race in the country in both 2012 and 2014, but McSally walked away with it in 2016. Seems like a good low-hanging fruit. Sabato has it at Leans R.

Btw this is the woman who shouted "let's fucking do this!" right before the House GOP voted to strip 24 million Americans of health insurance.
Click to expand...

Ann Kirkpatrick is moving there to run against her. Let's do it.
 
E

Electric Eye

Banned
So just heard on NPR PRI the world that a lot of advisers within the administration were scrambling till the last minute to try and convince Trump not to pull out of NAFTA and was finally convinced when they drew up maps and colored in the red parts that voted for him and then colored in the parts that showed who benefited from NAFTA (agricultural etc) to show the overlap to witch Trump responded "oh, maybe I won't pull out of NAFTA then".

Holy shit.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Electric Eye said:
So just heard on NPR PRI the world that a lot of advisers within the administration were scrambling till the last minute to try and convince Trump not to pull out of NAFTA and was finally convinced when they drew up maps and colored in the red parts that voted for him and then colored in the parts that showed who benefited from NAFTA (agricultural etc) to show the overlap to witch Trump responded "oh, maybe I won't pull out of NAFTA then".

Holy shit.
Click to expand...

tbh not a terrible strategy. Let's do it for healthcare.
 
D

daedalius

Member
Electric Eye said:
So just heard on NPR PRI the world that a lot of advisers within the administration were scrambling till the last minute to try and convince Trump not to pull out of NAFTA and was finally convinced when they drew up maps and colored in the red parts that voted for him and then colored in the parts that showed who benefited from NAFTA (agricultural etc) to show the overlap to witch Trump responded "oh, maybe I won't pull out of NAFTA then".

Holy shit.
Click to expand...

He just loves them maps!
 
O

Ogodei

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Donelly > McCaskill > Heitkamp > Brown > Baldwin > Tester > Manchin

In terms of who is most vulnerable.
Click to expand...

Manchin i'd say is first, his opponent will gut him over Epipen (despite the fact that the Republicans approve and would encourage more of the pricing disasters like Epipen, but the GOP has no self-reflection).

Brown and Baldwin i bet are quite safe given how generic D is trending right now, and that Brown has the right ideological bent for midwestern working class voters. Wisconsin's not so far gone as all that despite Feingold's disappointing performance.

Manchin > Donelly > Heitkamp > McCaskill are the vulnerable four, i wouldn't even bother ranking risk on Brown, Baldwin, or Tester.

Though my bet is we get a wash: take down Flake and Heller but lose Manchin and Donelly. Maybe a miracle occurs and we get Ted Cruz out too.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
That MacArthur townhall is NUTS. Guy literally saying to congressman he's trying to kill his wife and kids. Havent seen anything like this.

If Democrats were half as organized as Republicans we'd have our teaparty movement in the streets already.
 
K

kirblar

Member
RustyNails said:
That MacArthur townhall is NUTS. Guy literally saying to congressman he's trying to kill his wife and kids. Havent seen anything like this.

If Democrats were half as organized as Republicans we'd have our teaparty movement in the streets already.
Click to expand...
*and had a bunch of billionaires astroturfing instead of this only happening in the minds of conspiracy theorists
 
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