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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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low. You don't get made minority/majority leader unless you're safe because nobody wants the optics of the party leader getting removed from office. the closest he ever came to losing was his 100,000 vote margin in the 2008 dem wave

I don't think McConnell will ever lose, but Tom Daschle begs to differ about your point of leadership being safe.

Harry Reid came close to losing too, maybe if they didn't nominate Sharron Angle. It might just be a Democratic thing I guess.
 

Ithil

Member
Watching some of the clips from SNL, and on some news videos, I'm noticing something different, which is the comments and like/dislike. All the top comments are now anti-Trump comments, and there's no wave of dislikes. Likewise I've noticed things like Trump's tweets get hordes of hostile replies with very few pro-Trump bots/stans in comparison, and I haven't gone there but I've been told places like the politics subreddit are almost universally anti-Trump/anti-Republican and the masses of Russian bots are no longer spamming them, perhaps someone who browses can verify.

It feels like the foot is off the pedal on the whole "Russian/alt-right bot brigade" and much of it has retreated to their safe spaces like the_donald and 4chan.
 

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
It pains me that I see nice people in their 50s die all the time but Trump and McConnell, evil, flabby cunts in their 70s can't just drop of a coronary one of these days.
 
I don't think McConnell will ever lose, but Tom Daschle begs to differ about your point of leadership being safe.

Harry Reid came close to losing too, maybe if they didn't nominate Sharron Angle. It might just be a Democratic thing I guess.

Nevada is a barely lean blue state and South Dakota is red. Not really great fits for D leadership.
 

pigeon

Banned

jtb

Banned
I think unseating McConnell is definitely possible (though obviously not likely by any means), given the politics of Kentucky (similar to WV in a lot of ways) - but it would require going beyond a wave election to an actual political realignment. Which is certainly on the table, given the Republican party just experienced a literal hostile takeover, how Trump is screwing his own base, and McConnell's consistent unpopularity.

But it shouldn't be a priority, especially with so many better 2020 targets.
 

Ogodei

Member
I think unseating McConnell is definitely possible (though obviously not likely by any means), given the politics of Kentucky (similar to WV in a lot of ways) - but it would require going beyond a wave election to an actual political realignment. Which is certainly on the table, given the Republican party just experienced a literal hostile takeover, how Trump is screwing his own base, and McConnell's consistent unpopularity.

But it shouldn't be a priority, especially with so many better 2020 targets.

Who's a big target in 2020 aside from Gardner?
 

jtb

Banned
Who's a big target in 2020 aside from Gardner?

Thillis, Ernst, Purdue will all be top targets I think.

The rest of the states will depend on how badly the next three years go, but I think depending on the political landscape in 2020 and just how awful the AHCA ends up, big Medicaid states like AR, LA, and WV will be potential pickups for bringing back D senators. And let's finally boot Susan Collins out too.
 
And let's finally boot Susan Collins out too.

She might save us the trouble. Rumor has it that she intends to run for Maine governor next year, and she has yet to confirm or deny. With the current political climate, I could definitely see a Democrat winning the special election.
 
Who's a big target in 2020 aside from Gardner?
To add to the names mentioned above (Ernst, Tillis, Perdue, Collins), I'm hoping for a Mark Begich comeback bid in Alaska and for Steve Bullock in Montana. The timing works out perfectly for Bullock as he's term-limited, and Democrats do really well in Montana except for at the presidential level.

I'd also like to echo jtb's point about states like AR, LA and WV - should AHCA pass, they're totally fucked without the Medicaid expansion and we should make every effort to win them back. Hell, add McConnell to that list, Kentucky relies heavily on ACA. We could win back nearly every seat we lost in 2014 and then some.

I'll also add that Texas is up in 2020 as well, though should Cornyn take the FBI job that may be a hold for us :)

She might save us the trouble. Rumor has it that she intends to run for Maine governor next year, and she has yet to confirm or deny. With the current political climate, I could definitely see a Democrat winning the special election.
IIRC Maine's Senate seats are governor-appointed in case of vacancies.

No one has the same clout as Collins in Maine though, except Olympia Snowe who's already retired. Anyone but Collins in 2020 would be in for a real fight, and maybe even Collins should AHCA pass.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
John Harwood‏Verified account @JohnJHarwood

NBC/WSJ on Trump job approval, whites by gender/education: non-college men 60%; non-college women 49%; college+ men 44%; college+ women 30%

Dear fellow white men:

What is wrong with you?

This one was more interesting to me:

John Harwood‏Verified account @JohnJHarwood

NBC/WSJ poll on Trump job approval, by age: 18-34, 26%; 35-49, 40%; 50-64, 44%; 65+, 49%

That's a pretty sizeable voting bloc, no? Anyone know how big in comparison to the 50-64 range?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Also, only 52% of republicans support that AHCA bill. That's really, really low.
 
Gravis GA-6

Ossoff 47
Handel 45

Among voters who didn't vote in the primary, Ossoff leads 53-32.

AHCA favorabilty is 33-42.

Oh god we're gonna lose

Gravis sucks
 
A special prosecutor can't impeach.

The route to impeachment is through public presentation of information that forces a political reaction. A select committee is potentially better than a special prosecutor for that. The problem is that the select committee can't be trusted if it's run by the Republicans.

A special prosecutor reveals actual criminal acts, which are the impeachable offenses. I agree on both your other points: a select committee is more expedient and germane to impeachment but a select committee is more susceptible to becoming political circus.
 

Mizerman

Member
Dear fellow white men:

What is wrong with you?

This one was more interesting to me:



That's a pretty sizeable voting bloc, no? Anyone know how big in comparison to the 50-64 range?

Huh. I expected higher margins.


Also, only 52% of republicans support that AHCA bill. That's really, really low.

You'd think that most of them would jump up in support, but I guess not even they wanna touch it with a ten foot pole.
 

Kevinroc

Member

Ogodei

Member
How is it that the group it fucks over the most likes it the most? ("Likes it the most" being relative, of course. Those numbers are still abysmal.)

That's wild, 50-64 is the age group hit the absolute worst. 65+ shouldn't give a damn because they're barely effected.
 
I mean, the difference between 50-64 and 18-34 is still small in importance since both groups loathe the bill and most of the gap can probably be explained by party affiliation.

But still kind of interesting to see.
 

Kusagari

Member
I remember specifically from the exit polls, as worthless as they ended up being, that Trump's biggest base of support wasn't from the 65+ age group; it was from the 50-64 group.

Which isn't exactly good if the group most receptive to Trump has presumably quite a while left to live.
 
I remember specifically from the exit polls, as worthless as they ended up being, that Trump's biggest base of support wasn't from the 65+ age group; it was from the 50-64 group.

Which isn't exactly good if the group most receptive to Trump has presumably quite a while left to live.

That's why, when trump and co go down for treason(hopefully), all his voters should lose their rights to vote in presidential elections.

They gladly sold out the country for what? To fuck minorities? To say fuck you to the constitution?

His base should be considered traitors.
 

JP_

Banned
How is it that the group it fucks over the most likes it the most? ("Likes it the most" being relative, of course. Those numbers are still abysmal.)

They don't know what's in the bill they just know their racist GOP pals are behind it and according to them it'll make everything cheaper and better
 

Wilsongt

Member
Beyond cartoon villiany into a special place in hell.

At 3:07 a.m. on Friday morning, North Carolina Senate GOP leaders rushed through a budget amendment that stripped education funding for teaching assistants and STEM programs in districts led by Democrats, cut funding to provide fresh produce to food deserts, reallocated money that was supposed to go to an arts museum and a downtown revitalization project, and eliminated a position that works to secure federal aid for disaster relief.

It appears the amendment wasn’t passed to achieve specific policy goals though, but rather as an act of political retribution after a prolonged and contentious budget negotiation in the state’s senate.

As Thursday night ticked into Friday morning, the two parties seemed deadlocked — every time Democrats would file an amendment to fund their initiatives, Republicans would reject it, and Democrats would introduce another amendment.

But at 1:00 a.m. on Friday morning, Senate Rules Chairman Bill Rabon called a recess and met with other GOP leaders behind closed doors. As reported by the News & Observer, Democrats passed the time with an “impromptu dance party” in the hall.
The dancing Democrats didn’t see what was coming next, according to Colin Campbell,

The session finally resumed around 3 a.m., and Republican Sen. Brent Jackson introduced a new budget amendment that he explained would fund more pilot programs combating the opioid epidemic. He cited “a great deal of discussion” about the need for more opioid treatment funding.

Jackson didn’t mention where the additional $1 million would come from: directly from education programs in Senate Democrats’ districts and other initiatives the minority party sought.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
G55Izmo.png

Democrats may be fucking stupid enough to entertain this idea, but I'm guessing Garland wouldn't be.
 
Hmm. I don't think so. West Virginia doesn't throw out incumbents.
They might if Capito ends up signing off on a death sentence for hundreds of thousands of coal miners.

Especially if the Dem nominee ends up being a Midwestern white dude like Franken or Brown who can't as easily be fearmongered about.

(Brown especially could probably do well in Appalachia since he played a big part in getting health benefits for coal miners, I doubt it'd be enough to win a state like West Virginia however. Just that he wouldn't drag down any Dem nominees downticket as much)

Any other polls that deal with the special election?
There's been a few internals from Ossoff and the DCCC showing him up by a few, Landmark showed Handel up by like two points. Looking like a pure tossup either way.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Garland would work because he can grant himself a leave of absence and the seat is not vacant. It will never happen because the republicans don't care about being conciliatory and Trump would never nominate someone Obama nominated for anything. It's not going to happen.

what ever political shill trump ends up nominating the democrats should hammer the following questions.
  • Would you take an oath of loyalty to the president if he asked you?
  • Has the president already asked you for your loyalty to him personally?
  • Did the president tell you if he was recording your conversations, either on the telephone or in person, when you discussed accepting this opportunity with him?
  • if he did not tell you he was recording would you be surprised to learn such a recording existed? Would you be comfortable with the content of those hypothetical recordings if they were released to the public at a later date?
Over and over and over and over again. Did the president ask you for a loyalty oath, would you take it, is there recordings of your conversations?
Just hammer the sorry sucker who takes this devils bargain.
 
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