OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Yup, probably Manchin's saving grace honestly.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Yup, probably Manchin's saving grace honestly.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Speaking of Manchin. I looked at a 538 chart that shows how much senators are voting for Trumps agenda. Most republicans are voting 97-100%, the "mavericks" are voting 92 and 95%, Manchin is only voting 58%. Yeah, thats alot more than we'd like, but opposing Trump 42% of the time is a hell of alot better than 0%, which is what would happen if a republican were the senator in WV.
The most conservative democrat>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>any republican.
The most conservative democrat>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>any republican.
Aaron Strife
Banned
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/863876061829976064/photo/1
Both Awkward Ann Kirkpatrick and Matt Heinz beating Martha McSally 48-44 according to PPP.
Both Awkward Ann Kirkpatrick and Matt Heinz beating Martha McSally 48-44 according to PPP.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah, this should also be part of the DNC's push in the future. Letting "moderates" like Collins, Hogan, Baker, etc... get elected because we wanted the GOP to actually be a moderate party was a mistake.
The message should be that the only good Republican is one who just lost an election. Don't let a single one of them separate themselves from the group.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
The race between NC's legislature and SD's for the cartoon villiany that you posted is heating up!
Now this is an interesting development:
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...tate-deals-said-to-be-probed-by-n-y-s-top-cop
It's only just starting out so results may be a while away, but the most important thing to know from this is that this investigation would be independent from the DOJ (and free from Sessions' meddling), and would concern state laws, which the President can't pardon crimes for. Also, the AG in New York has huge reach in this area as mentioned in the article due to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Act
Manafort may be boned thoroughly now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...tate-deals-said-to-be-probed-by-n-y-s-top-cop
It's only just starting out so results may be a while away, but the most important thing to know from this is that this investigation would be independent from the DOJ (and free from Sessions' meddling), and would concern state laws, which the President can't pardon crimes for. Also, the AG in New York has huge reach in this area as mentioned in the article due to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Act
Manafort may be boned thoroughly now.
Autodidact
Banned
"Bonfire of the Moderate Darlings"
God damn it, didn't Claude Taylor talk about Schneiderman?
Both are mediocre candidates
Yea, you don't want to mess around with the sort of shit Manafort was doing in NY. There's been a lot of it out in LA and Miami, but not as much here for obvious reasons. That said, most of the high end real estate deals in NYC are done in cash. So if you've got enough balls you can certainly use the market here to launder dirty money and it wouldn't be that hard.
whyamihere
Banned
Sort of not great for Handel if a Republican isn't winning a Gravis poll? But these pollsters that've done GA6 have been Bad and congressional specials are very hard to poll.
It's a coin flip.
It's a coin flip.
SirClinksAlot
Member
Oh how I hope McSally gets beat. I hate having her as my rep so much.
New early voting locations have been made and the Ossoff campaign claims they are registering over 100 new voters a day. That, combined with the momentum from the healthcare repeal and the FBI controversy, I think gives Ossoff a slight edge. Either way, this democrat wave I feel will help turn Georgia blue in the future or at least turn it into a toss up state.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah gotta keep that Sun Belt turning our way. Even if we pulled off the White House plus Senate, we've always needed to move off of the Rust Belt as a crucial region. Moving forward, we should prioritize the Sun Belt and the bluer Rust Belt states like Wisconsin and Michigan. I think Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa are gone except for incumbents we already have.
Prior to comey and the AHCA passing the house I would have given ossoff a 5% chance to pulling this off but this I think will give him the push to be the favorite to win.
I'm dying here
Yeah, the alt-right are manchildren in the truest sense of the word. Its not surprising considering the crowds they best attract.
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were the blue wall and we still can't afford to lose them. They're losing Electors and Representatives in 2020, but not fast enough to be declared irrelevant.
Texas is the big prize, they're getting 4 new Electors/Representatives, and 2024 might be the time the party is finally competitive there given 8 more years of demographic shift and elderly GOP dying off.
NihonTiger90
Member
So this is fun, and I didn't see it posted:
Manafort's Real-Estate Deals Said to Be Probed by N.Y.'s Top Cop
Manafort's Real-Estate Deals Said to Be Probed by N.Y.'s Top Cop
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah I mentioned MI and WI, but forgot PA. My main point is that I think heavy resources in Ohio, Iowa, or Indiana would be a waste even if Obama won them once. We should still keep a party apparatus going in case we get opponents like Vitter with major baggage, but other than incumbent holds, I don't like our chances there long term.
TiredofWinning
Member
You think Schneiderman has his eyes on the governor's mansion or Schumer's seat when he quits?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I agree on Indiana, but I want to see what Ohio and Iowa do next year before completely writing them off. When people talk about exasperated Trump voters those are the ones that come to mind for me. Rod Blum's career looks pretty toasty this early out.
Team Alucard
Banned
The state GOP succeeded in banning public sector unions so Iowa is gone much like Wisconsin.
Schumer will never quit. He genuinely loves being a politician. I'd guess he has another three terms in him.
Worst kept secret in NY politics is that Schniderman wants the governorship after Cuomo is gone.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Indiana was never really considered a swing state. Obama won it in 2008 because (1) he won the overall election easily (2) he was a Midwesterner and (3) he completely out-organized McCain, who couldn't really afford to contest there (Obama had superior resources and McCain's only hope of winning the election was in a scenario where his national numbers improved to the point where Indiana was a given). Even then, he barely won.
Iowa and especially Ohio are traditional battlegrounds and, yes, it would appear they have lost that status. At a presidential level they're not going to be worth contesting for the forseeable future outside special circumstances (like if say Trump is unpopular in 2020 and Sherrod Brown is the nominee, Ohio could be in play). I still think they're worth investing in downballot, but I also think some amount of investment should go to every state.
Iowa and especially Ohio are traditional battlegrounds and, yes, it would appear they have lost that status. At a presidential level they're not going to be worth contesting for the forseeable future outside special circumstances (like if say Trump is unpopular in 2020 and Sherrod Brown is the nominee, Ohio could be in play). I still think they're worth investing in downballot, but I also think some amount of investment should go to every state.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Yeah I remember a while ago a poll came out that showed Trump's approval in Iowa was pretty mediocre/bad, I'd like to see how it goes there before writing it off.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I feel like what's going to make Iowa so tough going forward is that non-college whites number.
How did we go from one election and OH/IA are off the table so fast?
Atleast from a presidential level OH has been competitive for Democrats. Statewide the party has been in shambles aside from 06 in the last 25 years. IA Democrats until recently had been doing better on a presidential and statewide level.
The statewide and presidential success difference in the Midwest for the party has been jarring over the last 30 years anyway.
Atleast from a presidential level OH has been competitive for Democrats. Statewide the party has been in shambles aside from 06 in the last 25 years. IA Democrats until recently had been doing better on a presidential and statewide level.
The statewide and presidential success difference in the Midwest for the party has been jarring over the last 30 years anyway.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm not ready to give up on either state. We still need the Midwest until AZ/GA/TX flip.
Wisconsin in particular was decided by under 30,000 votes last year. Scott Walker, like many GOP politicians has benefited greatly from never having to run during a presidential election.
Writing off WI/MI/PA, states Trump barely carried by a point each at most, is utterly foolish.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I'm not saying we give up on any state, but it's a matter of finite resources and I'd rather money went to states like Wisconsin or Arizona than Ohio or Iowa.
Or even just spend locally in those states to work on House districts and mayors.
Or even just spend locally in those states to work on House districts and mayors.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Obviously long term strategy will depend on a bunch of unknowns, but short term we have to contest WI/MI/PA. We lost those states by, what, 70K votes collectively and they would get us over 270. You still work at pushing states like GA and AZ, but WI/MI/PA (plus holding states like NH, MN, and ME) is probably going to be the easiest path to victory in 2020.
IA and OH look tougher because the shifts were so dramatic. Obama won IA by 6 points in 2012. In 2016, TX was closer than IA.
IA and OH look tougher because the shifts were so dramatic. Obama won IA by 6 points in 2012. In 2016, TX was closer than IA.
I'm dying here
How dare she?
Lord_Byron28
Member
Given how these past few months have gone it's really hard to predict where we will be. However, given Trump's terrible approval ratings, the growing resistance to Trump, the GOP's Healthcare plan, Georgia special election results, and surge in political activism shows good signs for Democrats. We can't rule out the Midwest given the current circumstances. Now is the time for Democrats to strike aggressively in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, The Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana and Texas. Obviously not letting up in the NE and west coast.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Right I agree with this. In fact, even lumping all the Rust Belt states together doesn't really paint the right picture. There's a very real difference between Wisconsin and Iowa.
I'm dying here
lmao
you could definitely sum up like 80% of the problems with the losers hiding in the failed mens' shelters of reddit as "mommy issues"
Wisconsin Gov race is in 2018 right? If we get a Democrat in there, can we reverse the damage done to unions and voting rights in the state? Does the GOP have a stranglehold on the state legislature? I think winning the Governor's mansion in that state (plus smaller offices) bodes well for reclaiming the state in 2020.
As an aside, here is an interesting article about declining functionality of American Politics (written before election but still informative I believe)
As an aside, here is an interesting article about declining functionality of American Politics (written before election but still informative I believe)
Box of Kittens
Banned
The legislature is super gerrymandered and out of reach, but the governor could veto any new maps for the next redistricting. Of course, first the Democrats need to recruit a decent candidate for once.
neurosisxeno
Member
Aren't their current bullshit stupid lines being contested before the SCOTUS?
A Serious Man
Member
I'm dying here
Angrily screeching in protest so they can continue shitting on themselves about sums it up.
Yes, it's heading there, with an argument specifically tailored to address concerns Kennedy has previously expressed.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Because non college whites bolted from Democrats.
You win Ohio if 2020 is a wave election. If it's competitive you spend your resources in the closer states.
Why is KT still around if she was a Flynn flunkie and McMaster doesn't want her there? Also why is a deputy national security advisor printing out alleged time covers from the 70's regarding climate change? Isn't there some North Korea or isis crap to be dealing with?
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
That reads like a parent telling his extended family to not give the kid candy.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Lol, Mika dishing that Kellyanne Conway would say "Bleccch! I need to take a shower" immediately after she finished shilling for Trump on Morning Joe during the campaign
"You all know lil'donny has informational diabetes, if you give him any printed text his fake-news level will spike and he could go into a twitter coma. Low text maps are still okay, no more than two colors per map please."
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