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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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Emerson

May contain jokes =>
I'm pretty sure Warren would agree w you.

Bernie, Warren are too old and are already targets. You have to go new.

Yep.

The only oldster I would even consider is Biden, because he's near-universally loved on the left and even conservatives respect him. Unfortunately, at the end of the day he will just be too old.
 

Atenhaus

Member
Everyone: Truml revealed super classified information. This is troubling.

Fox and the Donald: Yeah, but look what we found out about Seth Rich!

Okay, I've been a bit out of the loop here, but why is Fox and co obfuscating with this story? Who is this dude?
 
Time to hire a special prosecutor to go after Hillary Clinton for the murder of Seth Rich.

Honestly? This is more likely than Trump impeachment.

Perfect way to blunt Democratic headwinds. Get the new FBI director in there. Fabricate some evidence, if need be. Muddy the waters. Classic dictator move.
 
Okay, I've been a bit out of the loop here, but why is Fox and co obfuscating with this story? Who is this dude?

Seth Rich was a DNC staffer who got murdered a while ago.

There became this idea that Russia didn't hack the DNC, Seth Rich leaked the info to Wikileaks himself, and then Seth Rich was murdered by Hillary Clinton.

The "investigator" pushing this story is a Fox News contributor who did other "research" on lesbian rape gangs.

It's completely disconnected from reality and the wildest conspiracy you could think up.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Was there ever a plurality favoring Clinton's impeachment? My recollection was that it was never above the anti-impeachment number. Could this be the first time the public favors impeachment in the modern era (other than Nixon)?

I don't think so for Clinton.

For Bush, Zogby found a majority supporting impeachment "if he lied about the war in Iraq". CBS found 61% of Vermont voters supporting starting the impeach process.

And I would still argue the Iraq War fuckup in general is one america's biggest mistakes in history that totally deserved an impeachment, even though it just wasn't in the cards politically to pursue it, especially with Hillary being weak to a lot of the charges they'd bring against Bush.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Okay, I've been a bit out of the loop here, but why is Fox and co obfuscating with this story? Who is this dude?

DNC staffered murdered in DC. Wikileaks decided to offer a reward of $20k for information several months ago on it. The extreme Bernies thought it was because he was going to leak information about the DNC to wikileaks.

I honestly have no idea why it is coming up again. It happened last summer and wasn't that big of a story.

I believe it is really just a distraction away from Dumbass blabbing his mouth to Russia.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I have zero confidence in Warren getting through 6 months of a campaign with 24 hour news and not losing the lead.

Agreed.

I'm pretty sure Warren would agree w you.

Bernie, Warren are too old and are already targets. You have to go new.

I do not feel the same way. I feel like after Trump was a complete disaster, people will want someone they know has done a great job before. They're going to want an expert with experience. By going new, you take the massive risk of untold skeletons being dug up. I don't care how old they are--get a young person in the VP role in case they need to take over. Just get in the White House.

Note: Still not a Bernie fan.
 
This cycle i think there'll be enough suckers who think they can do it. "Conventional Wisdom" will continue to hold that Brown, Baldwin, and Casey are vulnerable (even though by now they're very much not), that you'll get someone with decent chops to run against them in all three states.

They'll fail, terribly (go outside spit, Trump is President, etc), but the GOP narrative is still that the Dems are in disarray and on the verge of being wiped out outside of New England and California, and there'll be enough people getting high on their own supply to believe that.

My thoughts would be more along the lines that the people who would make the strongest candidates are going to know what's up and sit this one out. Like I would be very surprised if Kasich were to jump into the Ohio Senate race.
 
Pie in the sky time, how many seats do we need to get rid of electoral college and implement a french like election system?

France's election system is bad... We were like a few inches away from a communist vs. fascist runoff.

How many seats would we need for parliamentary system? I mean, at least 55, but then we would also need all of the Dems willing to go along with it. I think a lot of Republicans would support a parliamentary system.
 
The White House decided to spell out exactly which ally we betrayed.



https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/864326107578978305

If Jordan decides to stop sharing intel with the US. The results will basically be catastrophic in a geopolitical, political, militarily, national security, etc sense. It could much worse behind the scenes than him firing Comey as it would demonstrate a more physical repercussion than any negative action Trump has ever done.
 
Pie in the sky time, how many seats do we need to get rid of electoral college and implement a french like election system?

2/3 of the House and Senate or 2/3 of state legislatures to propose one formally. Then 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify it.

Get that, then we're on our way! Oh, and the GOP is much closer to that. Just a few states away from reaching those needed supermajorities.
 
2/3 of the House and Senate or 2/3 of state legislatures to propose one formally. Then 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify it.

Get that, then we're on our way! Oh, and the GOP is much closer to that. Just a few states away from reaching those needed supermajorities.

The GOP isn't even (realistically) close to being able to ratify the constitution. That was a myth started by panicking liberals who love to run around with their heads cut off.

I mean, I guess they're "close" if you look at raw numbers and stuff like "they only need 14 senators!" not really realizing gaining 14 senators is basically impossible and stops the entire plan in its tracks, let alone the full control needed in all states.

The only time when this may have even been humored as possible would be Hillary winning in 2016, and the GOP absolutely crushing every election in 2018 and 2020, including the presidency.
 

DonShula

Member
Diamond Joe is 74 right now. It's almost unbelievable when you look at him. He'd be 78 on Inauguration Day 2021. Reagan was 77 when he left office.

It's excrutiating to think about what could have been if Biden ran last year. My dad, the indoctrinated red state Obama-hating archetype, openly admitted that he would have voted for Joe Biden had he ran. And this was months before the election.

I'm all for a young candidate and hope that a flood of candidates creates some healthy competition and a consensus winner that Dems can get behind. But Biden was a slam dunk and we missed it.
 
The GOP isn't even (realistically) close to being able to ratify the constitution. That was a myth started by panicking liberals who love to run around with their heads cut off.

I mean, I guess they're "close" if you look at raw numbers and stuff like "they only need 14 senators!" not really realizing gaining 14 senators is basically impossible and stops the entire plan in its tracks, let alone the full control needed in all states.

The only time when this may have even been humored as possible would be Hillary winning in 2016, and the GOP absolutely crushing every election in 2018 and 2020, including the presidency.

It looks like they have both chambers of the legislature (just the one in Nebraska) in 33 states. One short needed to call a convention. But yeah, they would need a few more to get to 75% to actually ratify one I guess. 5 more to be exact.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...tes-to-change-the-constitution-but-its-close/
 

kirblar

Member
I do not feel the same way. I feel like after Trump was a complete disaster, people will want someone they know has done a great job before. They're going to want an expert with experience. By going new, you take the massive risk of untold skeletons being dug up. I don't care how old they are--get a young person in the VP role in case they need to take over. Just get in the White House.

Note: Still not a Bernie fan.
FDR was 50
JFK was 43
Carter was 52
Clinton was 47
Obama was 47

This is how we win elections.
 
FDR was 50
JFK was 43
Carter was 52
Clinton was 47
Obama was 47

This is how we win elections.

Gavin Newsom from Cali:

Gavin-newsom.jpg
 
I don't think so for Clinton.

For Bush, Zogby found a majority supporting impeachment "if he lied about the war in Iraq". CBS found 61% of Vermont voters supporting starting the impeach process.

And I would still argue the Iraq War fuckup in general is one america's biggest mistakes in history that totally deserved an impeachment, even though it just wasn't in the cards politically to pursue it, especially with Hillary being weak to a lot of the charges they'd bring against Bush.
So, not exactly apples to apples, but suggestive nonetheless. And that makes only 3 presidents in the modern era where a plurality or majority thought impeachment was appropriate: Nixon, Bush II, and now Trump.

2/3 of the House and Senate or 2/3 of state legislatures to propose one formally. Then 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify it.

Get that, then we're on our way! Oh, and the GOP is much closer to that. Just a few states away from reaching those needed supermajorities.
Despite my Hillary support and admiration, I think 2018 and 2020 under a Hillary presidency would have been bad enough to make GOP constitutional amendments disturbingly possible.
 

kirblar

Member
Gavin Newsom from Cali:
Gillibrand will be 53
Harris will be 55
Cortez-Masto will be 56
Klobuchar will be 59
Brown will be 67
Franken will be 68

I'm sure I'm forgetting others not named Cory Booker, but generally, younger has won for the Dems, and Gillibrand/Harris/CCM are close enough to the sweet spot to make them attractive options. The older ages in general are likely a result of Hillary artificially pushing a generation back 4 years.
 

jtb

Banned
Biden would've won is worse revisionism than Bernie would've won - which has some merits, given he actually got into the race and significantly outperformed expectations, even if I don't find it a particularly compelling argument.

For all intents and purposes, Biden did run - and he didn't make it through the primary because he is bad at all the blocking and tackling things that are required of Presidential candidates.

Vs a guy who was a reality tv show host? We're worried about experience?

Well, you're basically giving up a potential advantage over Trump. Now, how much does that advantage really matter given the Democrat's electorate? I don't know. But not being a liability is not the same thing as being a strength.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Pie in the sky time, how many seats do we need to get rid of electoral college and implement a french like election system?

Electoral college just needs find enough states to enter a compact with a majority of electoral college votes, and hope the courts go along with it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

It's unlikely, but feasible. You could be even more fancy with deciding the victor of the compact than straight nationwide national vote, but that's even more unlikely to pass.

It would be nice if just one state decided to restructure their own government away from the bicameral legislature and first past the post voting. At least Louisiana has some stuff kinda sounds similar to the french election?
 

Pryce

Member
The only time when this may have even been humored as possible would be Hillary winning in 2016, and the GOP absolutely crushing every election in 2018 and 2020, including the presidency.

The Republicans would have murdered the Democrats in 2018 and 2020.

Short term it's not good the Democrats lost, but jesus, it may have been worse than in 2010, especially considering how disliked Hillary is.
 

jtb

Banned
also ~hot take~ but I haven't really been impressed with Kamala Harris so far, at least based off her interviews on Pod Save America and the Axe Files. She's too performative in trying to come across as not a politician and authentic. And she has easy non-answers to tough questions (like, the MI-WI-PA-OH-IA problem).
 
also ~hot take~ but I haven't really been impressed with Kamala Harris so far, at least based off her interviews on Pod Save America and the Axe Files. She's too performative in trying to come across as not a politician and authentic. And she has easy non-answers to tough questions (like, the MI-WI-PA-OH-IA problem).

I kinda agree on this, and have been feeling that way for a bit.
 

kirblar

Member
also ~hot take~ but I haven't really been impressed with Kamala Harris so far, at least based off her interviews on Pod Save America and the Axe Files. She's too performative in trying to come across as not a politician and authentic. And she has easy non-answers to tough questions (like, the MI-WI-PA-OH-IA problem).
Unless it was you, I think someone else in the thread also wasn't thrilled after listening to her.
 
The "problem" is that it's really hard to actually get those last few legislatures. A bunch of the legislatures that are still under Democratic control are very Democratic. You would need multiple incredibly strong Republican cycles in a row to topple those legislatures as well as get enough House and especially Senate seats. The last time a party had 3/4ths majorities in the House and Senate was following the 1936 election, after several strong Democratic cycles in a row due to the Great Depression. The far more common scenario is that once a party gets large majorities like the Republicans have now voters start to turn away from them. Add in that the next election is a midterm (bad for the incumbent party) and Trump is likely to still be unpopular and it's far more likely that they lose legislatures than gain them.
 
Gillibrand will be 53
Harris will be 55
Cortez-Masto will be 56
Klobuchar will be 59
Brown will be 67
Franken will be 68

I'm sure I'm forgetting others not named Cory Booker, but generally, younger has won for the Dems, and Gillibrand/Harris/CCM are close enough to the sweet spot to make them attractive options. The older ages in general are likely a result of Hillary artificially pushing a generation back 4 years.
Andrew Cuomo will be 63 at inauguration 2020. Eric Garcetti will be a week away from 50. Chris Murphy will be 46. Jerry Brown will be 82.
 
Vs a guy who was a reality tv show host? We're worried about experience?

It's important that the person elected actually be qualified to do the job. Obviously he would be better than Trump (as would Kander and other names like that thrown about) but that's not exactly the bar we should be setting.
 
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