Support NeoGAF

[Plinko]

They probably just figure maybe they'll lose the next 4 years, but it'll all blow over and the public will forget about it. 6 years after Nixon went down, Reagan and R's came back with a vengeance, and only 2 years after Bush left office with the economy destroyed, 2 unpopular wars, and several disasters in his Presidency, the country gave Republicans the House and several seats in the Senate. People have the memories of goldfish, Republicans can fuck up as much as they want, they know they'll get power back

Perhaps, but the world is much different now. Information is readily available and sticks around forever. Internet didn't exist back then. All they could rely on to keep that fresh in the minds of voters was TV.

 

[jtb]

We just need simple messaging.

Medicare for all.
A check on Trump's power.

Those should be the Dems two key messages in 2018 to ensure a wave election. Dems can have their cake (rally their base, continue making inroads in college educated whites) and eat it (win back rust belt/disaffected voters) too imo.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Trump voters want jobs. Not noise about Russia

On the surface, you'd read a title like that and assume it's about Trump voters complaining about the Democrats trying to harm Trump or whatever.

But it turns out it's a little more nuanced than that. It's more that they don't particularly care about the Russian stuff, but are more worried that Trump is too distracted and that he's ignoring them due to his other problems. These voters don't care about voter fraud or Muslim bans or Russia. They just want Trump to do what he said and give them jobs. They're frustrated he keeps doing stuff they don't care about instead of what he said he was going to do.

I think come 2020, when he's done nothing of consequence to help them (which is obvious), they'll either not vote, or vote against him in backlash.

These are the first time voters and swing voters that helped get him elected, not his hyper partisan core. These are the ones that actually decide the election, and he's done nothing to appeal to them and has no plans to appeal to them.

It's why making promises you can't actually fulfill or even attempt to fulfill might get you elected, but it's a dangerous stunt to try and pull.

 

[Gruco]

We just need simple messaging.

Medicare for all.
A check on Trump's power.

Those should be the Dems two key messages in 2018 to ensure a wave election. Dems can have their cake (rally their base, continue making inroads in college educated whites) and eat it (win back rust belt/disaffected voters) too imo.

I want to add to this, the minimum wage was a major and incredibly easy winning issue in 2006 and it can be again in 2018.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

There's two lessons we should take from the 94/10 waves. One, achieve something, two, know how to market it. Obama got a lot done but it was communicated poorly, Democrats put too much faith in the media to properly explain what ACA would do. We need to be out there Day 1 to counter any false narratives that surround any new reform bills. Clinton was much better at showboating but his first major legislative agenda item was a bust.

I mean the biggest problem is turnout, but I think a lot of that comes down to ignorance. Few people actually care what's on the ballot in midterm years, it's just the base voters for the out party want to do something. Not sure how we solve that because people need to want to be educated and I'm not convinced they do.

These are not the lessons to learn from the ACA and Hillarycare.

People don't want to have their health insurance affected in any way.

I'm not sure we could have better marketed "us making your shitty health plan go away is actually good because your plan fucking sucks" because people still liked their shitty health insurance a lot.

 

[NeoXChaos]

There's two lessons we should take from the 94/10 waves. One, achieve something, two, know how to market it. Obama got a lot done but it was communicated poorly, Democrats put too much faith in the media to properly explain what ACA would do. We need to be out there Day 1 to counter any false narratives that surround any new reform bills. Clinton was much better at showboating but his first major legislative agenda item was a bust.

I mean the biggest problem is turnout, but I think a lot of that comes down to ignorance. Few people actually care what's on the ballot in midterm years, it's just the base voters for the out party want to do something. Not sure how we solve that because people need to want to be educated and I'm not convinced they do.

midterms have been lower turnout affairs compared to presidential elections going back a century, Short of mandatory voting is going to make a difference in turnout. There is probably not much you can do about it otherwise.

 

[kirblar]

These are not the lessons to learn from the ACA and Hillarycare.

People don't want to have their health insurance affected in any way.

I'm not sure we could have better marketed "us making your shitty health plan go away is actually good because your plan fucking sucks" because people still liked their shitty health insurance a lot.

It's simpler than that- you have two points of view making up the general bulk of the GOP - the people who don't want to pay for other people's insurance, and the people who don't want to pay for their own. The second group is real and is the group who gets really angry about the mandate. https://cheaptalk.org/2017/05/09/health-insurance-and-flood-insurance/ This is why groups who would be net beneficiaries are opposing it, and it's going to blowback no matter what you do.

 

[sangreal]

Obama's marketing was definitely a problem no matter how you cut it

Look at how much credit Trump gets for creating jobs, cutting regulations etc when he hasn't even done anything of note

It helps to have a popular propaganda organ but still

 

[JP_]

Trump voters want jobs. Not noise about Russia

On the surface, you'd read a title like that and assume it's about Trump voters complaining about the Democrats trying to harm Trump or whatever.

But it turns out it's a little more nuanced than that. It's more that they don't particularly care about the Russian stuff, but are more worried that Trump is too distracted and that he's ignoring them due to his other problems. These voters don't care about voter fraud or Muslim bans or Russia. They just want Trump to do what he said and give them jobs. They're frustrated he keeps doing stuff they don't care about instead of what he said he was going to do.

I think come 2020, when he's done nothing of consequence to help them (which is obvious), they'll either not vote, or vote against him in backlash.

These are the first time voters and swing voters that helped get him elected, not his hyper partisan core. These are the ones that actually decide the election, and he's done nothing to appeal to them and has no plans to appeal to them.

It's why making promises you can't actually fulfill or even attempt to fulfill might get you elected, but it's a dangerous stunt to try and pull.

Those are the conservatives (or right-leaning "moderates") that Bernie has draw with. The people that should be voting dem but aren't, largely driven by ignorance and the perception that dems are corrupt etc.

 

[A Serious Man]

Trump laying into the media now and jerking himself off.

 

[Owzers]

Trump laying into the media now and jerking himself off.

He wants this to be a rally so badly.

 

[Pixieking]

Is the commencement address being streamed? I need me some abject stupidity.

WaPo website has it, but can't give a direct link to it, since it's embedded. Just head to https://www.washingtonpost.com/ and it'll be at the very top of the page, with its own header.

 

[Foffy]

Trump voters want jobs. Not noise about Russia

On the surface, you'd read a title like that and assume it's about Trump voters complaining about the Democrats trying to harm Trump or whatever.

But it turns out it's a little more nuanced than that. It's more that they don't particularly care about the Russian stuff, but are more worried that Trump is too distracted and that he's ignoring them due to his other problems. These voters don't care about voter fraud or Muslim bans or Russia. They just want Trump to do what he said and give them jobs. They're frustrated he keeps doing stuff they don't care about instead of what he said he was going to do.

I think come 2020, when he's done nothing of consequence to help them (which is obvious), they'll either not vote, or vote against him in backlash.

These are the first time voters and swing voters that helped get him elected, not his hyper partisan core. These are the ones that actually decide the election, and he's done nothing to appeal to them and has no plans to appeal to them.

It's why making promises you can't actually fulfill or even attempt to fulfill might get you elected, but it's a dangerous stunt to try and pull.

Too bad these fools don't realize the loljobs card is actually crumbling around them, and we don't even need to talk about Trump's vapid promises, either.

To be so fucking stupid to believe this guy is going to give you jobs like candy, as we enter a paradigm of mass automation, is almost dumber than voting for him and being shook he will take away your healthcare.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Senate wants public and closed testimony from Comey.

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/864878199334948864

 

[Plinko]

Senate wants public and closed testimony from Comey.

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/864878199334948864

Good.

 

[Hindl]

Perhaps, but the world is much different now. Information is readily available and sticks around forever. Internet didn't exist back then. All they could rely on to keep that fresh in the minds of voters was TV.

But I think that information is as much a burden as a benefit. There's so much information now, but it also means anyone can be a journalist. People can get their information from anywhere. We've seen that people don't hold the mainstream media in the highest regard, and people like HA Goodman and Ben Shapiro are seen as equivalent journalists. Everyone gets the information they want, look at how conservative media has basically been pushing the "the leaks are the real story!" or the Seth Rich story this week while we find out that the President is obstructing an investigation. Something this big will turn people against it, but the combination of the abundance of sources people can get information from and the Democrat's poor messaging/Republican's strong messaging doesn't give me hope that 6 years down the line this isn't all in the distant past for the general public. The Democrats should be able to take advantage of this and beat this horse for at least the next 12 years. I'm just not confident they'll be able to

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Senate wants public and closed testimony from Comey.

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/864878199334948864

Can't wait to hear about leaks and why the GOP think about them.

 

[RustyNails]

It's why making promises you can't actually fulfill or even attempt to fulfill might get you elected, but it's a dangerous stunt to try and pull.

Yup, and why Bernie who was promising the moon with his claims of doing away with Obamacare and starting with a new singlepayer bill, doing away trade agreements and just being ignorant/lying about these things would have met the same fate.

 

[Cyanity]

WaPo website has it, but can't give a direct link to it, since it's embedded. Just head to https://www.washingtonpost.com/ and it'll be at the very top of the page, with its own header.

Thanks

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yup, and why Bernie who was promising the moon with his claims of doing away with Obamacare and starting with a new singlepayer bill, doing away trade agreements and just being ignorant/lying about these things would have met the same fate.

It's fine man, we'll just get 11 million college students to march on Washington, that'll show McConnell and Ryan!

 

[Blader]

Can't wait to hear about leaks and why the GOP think about them.

"Director Comey, do you believe you should be in prison right now over leaking your memos to the press?"

 

[VendettaRed07]

Obama's marketing was definitely a problem no matter how you cut it

Look at how much credit Trump gets for creating jobs, cutting regulations etc when he hasn't even done anything of note

It helps to have a popular propaganda organ but still

Obama needed Reagan-like graphs and charts

 

[UberTag]

Maybe Hatch is just senile.

Dude's 83. That's not far-fetched. Trump's senile and 13 years younger.

 

[Plinko]

Can't wait to hear about leaks and why the GOP think about them.

I'll save you the wait:

"Troubling. Probably need more information."

 

[Blader]

I understand the argument from not wanting the DNC and DCCC to get involved heavily in Quist's campaign, and turning the race into an easily partisan Republican vs. Democratic contest that, given the state, would likely go R. What I can't understand is why guys like Perez and Lujan haven't even, like, paid Quist a phone call. That to me sounds less like a tactical plan to keep the national party out of view and just more like negligence.

also, what the fuck at this Quist email that just landed in my inbox:

Special Election OVER [we failed]

WHY WOULD YOU TELL YOUR SUPPORTERS THE ELECTION IS OVER

THAT'S NOT HOW YOU DRIVE TURNOUT

 

[Ogodei]

I understand the argument from not wanting the DNC and DCCC to get involved heavily in Quist's campaign, and turning the race into an easily partisan Republican vs. Democratic contest that, given the state, would likely go R. What I can't understand is why guys like Perez and Lujan haven't even, like, paid Quist a phone call. That to me sounds less like a tactical plan to keep the national party out of view and just more like negligence.

also, what the fuck at this Quist email that just landed in my inbox:



WHY WOULD YOU TELL YOUR SUPPORTERS THE ELECTION IS OVER

THAT'S NOT HOW YOU DRIVE TURNOUT

Clickbait subject titles. The goal is to drive that open rate.

Charity emails are a large part of my job, but we do it very differently because we want to avoid people clicking unsubscribe, however for political outfits the goal is to feed off the sense of urgency, perpetually.

 

[Kusagari]

Tim Mak‏Verified account @timkmak · 12m12 minutes ago
Four GOP senators calling for an independent investigation into Russia/Trump: Graham, Heller, McCain, Murkowski



Moderate Queen Susan Collins continuing to show herself as a fraud by not joining in.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Clickbait subject titles. The goal is to drive that open rate.

Charity emails are a large part of my job, but we do it very differently because we want to avoid people clicking unsubscribe, however for political outfits the goal is to feed off the sense of urgency, perpetually.

FW:RE:RE:RE TRUMP THE TYRANT DID THE UNTHINKABLE AND WE'RE APPALLED

HELLO NED,

This is URGENT. URGENT! We NEED help taking down this DISGUSTING TRUMP who did THAT THING THAT IS VERY BAD. Help us Ned, we NEED JUST 25 DOLLARS PER PERSON AND WE CAN IMPEACH TRUMP.

Just TWENTY FIVE (25) DOLLARS will enter you INTO A RAFFLE to own ONE SHOELACE ONCE USED BY OBAMA

THAT'S RIGHT

Just TWENTY FIVE (25) DOLLARS and we can TAKE DOWN TRUMP

THANK YOU
From Progressives for the progress of progressive ideals paid for by progressives

At least two emails like this every day for the last two years. It's gotten even worse since I started donating to the ACLU. I swear Tom Perez emails me hourly.

 

[Ogodei]

Heller definitely needs to get on the right side of this to save his ass next year.

Politico suggested that Democrats will block everything without an agreement on an independent prosecutor or an independent commission.

 

[BobTheFork]

Can't wait to hear about leaks and why the GOP think about them.

You can hear what they think of it now.

That isn't going to change based on the content presented.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

"Great surety"?

 

[hydragonwarrior]

Obama's marketing was definitely a problem no matter how you cut it

Look at how much credit Trump gets for creating jobs, cutting regulations etc when he hasn't even done anything of note

It helps to have a popular propaganda organ but still

In today's political climate, it's absolutely mandatory and imperative to have this.

 

[RustyNails]

In today's political climate, it's absolutely mandatory and imperative to have this.

Trump changed things forever. Going back to the good ol days of leaving politics inside the beltway will not work. I want Democrats to hold post campaign rallies as well, especially when its a BFD like healthcare or taxes.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

It's fine man, we'll just get 11 million college students to march on Washington, that'll show McConnell and Ryan!

That premise isn't off base. The republicans can only do what they do because their constituency supports them. If you get enough people involved, politicians suddenly find themselves changing their minds about certain issues. It's like, the entire reason no one publicly supports segregation any more. Human nature didn't change in 50 years. Our societal attitutde did.

 

[Gruco]

The Times has a good summary of why Congressional Republicans are sticking by Trump. Some are nonsense, but a couple I think are fairly telling.

In particular, there is a big sense of "Fuck you, we're in change now". That is, Republicans waited a long time to have the opportunity they have now and are predisposed to seeing opposition as a way of taking that away from them. Fear of losing control and desperation to enact their agenda colors the way they see all of the scandals. They won't listen to Democratic demands for an independent investigation for the simple reason that Democrats aren't in charge and can't tell them what to do. Tax Cuts Are the Only Thing That Matter.

On top of that, the fear of losing Trump's base is pervasive.

As ugly as things are now, the bleeding will last quite a while.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

That premise isn't off base. The republicans can only do what they do because their constituency supports them. If you get enough people involved, politicians suddenly find themselves changing their minds about certain issues. It's like, the entire reason no one publicly supports segregation any more. Human nature didn't change in 50 years. Our societal attitutde did.

And yet we're 2-3 votes in the senate away from taking away healthcare from 25+ million people despite massive public outcry and a <30% approval for the bill.

Maybe in pie in the sky land where our government actually works as intended this would work, but there's no reason to think like this looking at the current GOP.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Chris Cilzzlizzzillizza begins to suspect Donald Trump might not be the brilliant tactician he thought he was:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/17/politics/donald-trump-russia-comey/index.html

The stunning nature of his election convinced most people -- including me -- that he was playing a sort of three-dimensional chess, executing a strategy that seemed crazy on its face but turned out to be crazy like a fox.
The events of the first 117 days of the Trump White House -- and, especially, the last 7 days -- suggest that assumption might be dead wrong.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

"Great surety"?

I feel like he probably was exposed to it via property contracts and latched onto it. It does sound archaic and Tolkien-ish the way he's using it.

 

[B-Dubs]

Chris Cilzzlizzzillizza begins to suspect Donald Trump might not be the brilliant tactician he thought he was:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/17/politics/donald-trump-russia-comey/index.html

If Trump convinced you he was smart then you were dumb as a bag of rocks. He literally got lucky.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

And yet we're 2-3 votes in the senate away from taking away healthcare from 25+ million people despite massive public outcry and a <30% approval for the bill.

Maybe in pie in the sky land where our government actually works as intended this would work, but there's no reason to think like this looking at the current GOP.

Sorry, I got distracted by a phone call and hit "submit" too early. I meant to add that it isn't a guarantee by any means that public support would just show up for this or that policy initiative, and in that sense it's not feasible, but the basic premise is true that public support (among likely voters, anyway) holds a lot of sway over what politicians will do and I think a good chunk of the population is in denial or just simply ignorant to that fact. So Bernie is right in principle, but it would vary from issue to issue how prescient his statement would be in practice.

 

[smokeymicpot]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfede...kidnapping-and?utm_term=.qvDVA4L4x#.rb6N2OPOk

US Denies Visas To Gay Russians Fleeing Kidnapping And Torture


The United States has declined visas to gay Chechens fleeing a wave of kidnappings, torture, and disappearances in the semi-autonomous Russian region, according to the organization Russia LGBT Network.

A group of around 40 Chechens are now in hiding in other parts of Russia, Russia LGBT Network spokesperson Svetlana Zakharova told BuzzFeed News, and are having difficulty securing visas that would allow them to flee the country.

Since the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta first reported the abuse of dozens of gay Chechens in April, just two have managed to secure visas to safe countries despite the European Union and the United States expressing concern about the allegations, Zakharova said. A handful of gay Chechens have fled without visas because they believed the danger of staying in Russia was too great.

A US State Department spokesperson said in a statement provided on background that the department could not comment on the visa denials because, "As visa records are confidential under U.S. law, we are unable to discuss individual cases."

Zakharova told BuzzFeed News that "negotiations have been difficult" with representatives of countries that could provide safe refuge for survivors of the violence. She would not name the countries the organization was still trying to secure visas from because this could put any Chechens whose applications ultimately succeeded in danger, but she said in an email to BuzzFeed News on Tuesday that "we were informed that the US is not going to issue visas for people from Chechnya."

 

[tuxfool]

Chris Cilzzlizzzillizza begins to suspect Donald Trump might not be the brilliant tactician he thought he was:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/17/politics/donald-trump-russia-comey/index.html

why would any pundit admit to such gross stupidity?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

why would any pundit admit to such gross stupidity?

He's never been the brightest guy.

 

[Blader]

why would any pundit admit to such gross stupidity?

Because Cillizza is a stupid man.

 

[Hindl]

If Trump convinced you he was smart then you were dumb as a bag of rocks. He literally got lucky.

I don't even think he was wisely tapping into the racist, nationalistic roots in the American public. He's just a racist, sexist, idiot just like them who has the same understanding of how government works as your average citizen. So when he talks it lines up with what your average citizen thinks is right. All of the things he talked about were just ideas I've heard politically illiterate friends throw out discussing ways to fix the country

 

[Aaron Strife]

That premise isn't off base. The republicans can only do what they do because their constituency supports them. If you get enough people involved, politicians suddenly find themselves changing their minds about certain issues. It's like, the entire reason no one publicly supports segregation any more. Human nature didn't change in 50 years. Our societal attitutde did.

The Republicans routinely write off demonstrations like that as paid shills or district outsiders or shit like that. All the congressional leaders sit in safely gerrymandered districts that they'll probably be insulated from even a D+20 wave, and there's no sense of loyalty where they're looking out for their vulnerable members. They corralled enough of them to vote for a steaming pile of shit like AHCA, after all.

The problem with Bernie's hypothesis was that he believed if he became President, his supporters would remain actively engaged and on the streets protesting whenever Congress failed to act and I don't buy that for a second. Obama accomplished a lot in his first two years because he had a Dem Congress, the minute either chamber flipped red everything came to a halt. Do jaded liberals blame the Republicans for gumming up the works, or Obama? Of course it's the latter, people don't know or care how our fucking government works and just want the president to fix everything. Bernie's supporters would have turned on him the minute it became clear he wouldn't be able to fulfill any of his pie-in-the-sky promises. He would have been branded a corporate sellout just like Obama was.

So many times during the primary I saw people opine that Bernie was the ONLY ONE, he was our one true savior, etc. and if you buy into that bullshit you've already lost the plot. Having a government that works for people involves electing hundreds, if not thousands of public officials across the country, in every state, district and county. But it's far easier to sit on the couch and watch Netflix and convince yourself that your $5 donation to Bernie Sanders really meant something.

The path to a progressive majority is the same as always - run good candidates in congressional districts, Senate races, gubernatorial elections, state legislative districts, etc. and then win the presidency. Instead everyone wants to skip ten steps and hope everything else just falls into place.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

The Republicans routinely write off demonstrations like that as paid shills or district outsiders or shit like that. All the congressional leaders sit in safely gerrymandered districts that they'll probably be insulated from even a D+20 wave, and there's no sense of loyalty where they're looking out for their vulnerable members. They corralled enough of them to vote for a steaming pile of shit like AHCA, after all.

Paul Ryan represents an R+5 district (that has slowly moved to the right, of course - used to be R+2 and the median district in 2009)

 

[kirblar]

The Republicans routinely write off demonstrations like that as paid shills or district outsiders or shit like that. All the congressional leaders sit in safely gerrymandered districts that they'll probably be insulated from even a D+20 wave, and there's no sense of loyalty where they're looking out for their vulnerable members. They corralled enough of them to vote for a steaming pile of shit like AHCA, after all.

The problem with Bernie's hypothesis was that he believed if he became President, his supporters would remain actively engaged and on the streets protesting whenever Congress failed to act and I don't buy that for a second. Obama accomplished a lot in his first two years because he had a Dem Congress, the minute either chamber flipped red everything came to a halt. Do jaded liberals blame the Republicans for gumming up the works, or Obama? Of course it's the latter, people don't know or care how our fucking government works and just want the president to fix everything. Bernie's supporters would have turned on him the minute it became clear he wouldn't be able to fulfill any of his pie-in-the-sky promises. He would have been branded a corporate sellout just like Obama was.

So many times during the primary I saw people opine that Bernie was the ONLY ONE, he was our one true savior, etc. and if you buy into that bullshit you've already lost the plot. Having a government that works for people involves electing hundreds, if not thousands of public officials across the country, in every state, district and county. But it's far easier to sit on the couch and watch Netflix and convince yourself that your $5 donation to Bernie Sanders really meant something.

The path to a progressive majority is the same as always - run good candidates in congressional districts, Senate races, gubernatorial elections, state legislative districts, etc. and then win the presidency. Instead everyone wants to skip ten steps and hope everything else just falls into place.

Hell, the reason Obama supporters like me were so dismissive of Bernie's crap is that WE SAW THAT IT DOESNT WORK IN 2009/10!

 

[Blader]

Paul Ryan represents an R+5 district (that has slowly moved to the right, of course - used to be R+2 and the median district in 2009)

Christ, HOW does this guy keep getting re-elected? What does he even do for the people in his district, except embarrass them?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Paul Ryan represents an R+5 district (that has slowly moved to the right, of course - used to be R+2 and the median district in 2009)

So if he faces a +10 to 15D wave...

Oh

Is there a hope and a dream there?