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[whyamihere]

Again, define "everywhere you can." I do not think most people here would care about a race here, certainly not as much as other races. So again I don't see any reason to get worked up about someone "giving up" on certain places when most, including you I'd guess, would probably just shrug over a lost race in a lot of places.

And as a mathematician, I cringe hard at science gatekeeping. I could shit on any field except philosophy if I wanted to look like an asshole but it's not really a cool thing to do.



The key to those two states are strong metro areas (DC and Atlanta respectively) that we don't have in MS. Maybe if you really got into North MS in Hernando and Itawamba counties as they're both insanely close to Memphis and Birmingham respectively? You'd need more future-proof industries in state to go with that. Young flight is severe.

I would love to win a race in Mississippi if we campaigned there with a good candidate and the polling was strong and showed a close race. Why would I have a problem there or you don't believe me about that? Because it's Mississippi? That's weird. I want to win wherever we can.

 

[The Adder]

To be completely honest, I don't believe that anyone here would ever think about a race in Mississippi more than one in a swing state. I simply do not believe you.

Until the 2010 midterms Dems held 3 out of 4 MS seats in the US House.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I would love to win a race in Mississippi if we campaigned there with a good candidate and the polling was strong and showed a close race. Why would I have a problem there or you don't believe me about that? Because it's Mississippi? That's weird. I want to win wherever we can.

You were arguing about someone thinking Ohio and Iowa were further gone than you think they are. That's fine! But you seemed to be arguing that nowhere is too far gone, but that's not really how anyone sees places like MS or AL. You even say here that you wouldn't really care unless you had data first to hype your chances.

Someone said Iowa was in the same bucket as MS, and you disagreed. I just don't really see the point in petty jabs over what amounts to line drawing.

 

[Suikoguy]

OMG look at the first tweet they chose for this article

http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/hes...t-calls-islam-one-of-worlds-great-faiths/amp/

That's an awfully worded first sentence Rawstory:

"As President Donald Trump is getting hammered on the left for not using the expression “radical Islamic terrorism” during his speech in Saudi Arabia, he is also taking heat from his avid supporters who were drawn to him due to his anti-Mulsim rhetoric when he is in the U.S."

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Until the 2010 midterms Dems held 3 out of 4 MS seats in the US House.

This is a bit misleading. Our state legislature went Republican for the first time in our state's entire history in 2011. But you wouldn't really call MS a stalwart against conservatism.

We were basically the last holdout of straight up racist white nationalist Dems until a bunch of them finally just switched parties. Childers was okay as senator I guess.

 

[whyamihere]

You were arguing about someone thinking Ohio and Iowa were further gone than you think they are. That's fine! But you seemed to be arguing that nowhere is too far gone, but that's not really how anyone sees places like MS or AL. You even say here that you wouldn't really care unless you had data first to hype your chances.

Someone said Iowa was in the same bucket as MS, and you disagreed. I just don't really see the point in petty jabs over what amounts to line drawing.

I did not argue that no places are too far gone?

No one said Iowa was like Mississippi?

I think petty jabs are fine when you think people are being ridiculous Cassandras in their predictions three years from now.

I'm honestly very confused. I think you're arguing with me about something else because you made me make a petty swipe. Which, fine. But I don't think you actually understand the points we've been arguing about. Which is, I don't think we should put all our eggs in one basket three years out with no data from even the midterms.

 

[sc0la]

That's an awfully worded first sentence Rawstory:

"As President Donald Trump is getting hammered on the left for not using the expression “radical Islamic terrorism” during his speech in Saudi Arabia, he is also taking heat from his avid supporters who were drawn to him due to his anti-Mulsim rhetoric when he is in the U.S."

It's awful conceptually as well. I imagine a significant portion of the left hammering him for not saying "radical Islamic terrorism" is ironic. essentially no one on the left actually wants him to say that, but they will give him shit for backing down on the thing he harped on Obama for incessantly.

 

[Suikoguy]

It's awful conceptually as well. I imagine a significant portion of the left hammering him for not saying "radical Islamic terrorism" is ironic. essentially no one on the left actually wants him to say that, but they will give him shit for backing down on the thing he harped on Obama for incessantly.

Yeah, it's the same with the donation from Saudia Arabia to the World Bank fund Melania does not even have any significant degree of control over. Would be a non-story if not for all of Trump's previous bullshit faux-outrage.

 

[RustyNails]

I have never been so disgusted by our willingness to misuse and abuse the name of the dead for petty shit. Seth Rich was a man with potential stuck down over a robbery. Trayvon Martin and Mike Brown were children given the death sentence for the color of their skin. They are not here to defend themselves or explain themselves.

But here we are, using their names and misusing their memories to put forward absurd acts and ideas. "Seth Rich is a victim of a conspiracy and Hillary murdered him. Mike and Trayvon deserved what they got." It's horrifying and macabre to think that people we know could be abused this way, turned into haunting ghosts, because of their circumstances and the wretchedness of others.

Let them sleep.

There is nothing shocking about this. It's all about Hillary. The whole Benghazi thing showed you how craven and opportunistic our politicians (and demagogues on TV) are. The amount of conspiracy theories peddled regarding the death of Amb. Stevens and his colleagues in Libya can cover an entire library compared to the death of Seth Rich. And of course, Hillary is at the center of both of these nontroversies.

Hillary just makes these people go mad. She's running a child pedo ring in the basement of a pizza parlor. She ordered the killing of Amb. Stevens. She ordered the killing of Seth Rich. And of course, the whole thing started because Bill and Hillary ordered the hit on Vince Foster.

 

[kirblar]

I did not argue that no places are too far gone?

No one said Iowa was like Mississippi?

I think petty jabs are fine when you think people are being ridiculous Cassandras in their predictions three years from now.

I'm honestly very confused. I think you're arguing with me about something else because you made me make a petty swipe. Which, fine. But I don't think you actually understand the points we've been arguing about. Which is, I don't think we should put all our eggs in one basket three years out with no data from even the midterms.

It's not being a Cassandra, it's about margins and which states are likely to be the "actual" marginal Electoral Votes?

That is to say, if Iowa/Ohio are a toss-up in 2020 and competitive, we're probably already massively ahead in the polls and are playing to get as big a gain as possible. Clinton doing this when she wasn't actually in a position to do that was indeed a big mistake!

 

[whyamihere]

It's not being a Cassandra, it's about margins and which states are likely to be the "actual" marginal Electoral Votes?

That is to say, if Iowa/Ohio are a toss-up in 2020 and competitive, we're probably already massively ahead in the polls and are playing to get as big a gain as possible. Clinton doing this when she wasn't actually in a position to do that was indeed a big mistake!

I'm not arguing with you about this again because I think you're fundamentally incorrect in your assumption and I'm on my phone and don't have time for this.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I did not argue that no places are too far gone?

I could certainly have misunderstood you. But I thought you were arguing about not giving up on places when I think we all see races that shouldn't get as many resources as others.

No one said Iowa was like Mississippi?

kirblar basically did by arguing against putting resources into states like this.

I think petty jabs are fine when you think people are being ridiculous Cassandras in their predictions three years from now.

I'm honestly very confused. I think you're arguing with me about something else because you made me make a petty swipe. Which, fine. But I don't think you actually understand the points we've been arguing about. Which is, I don't think we should put all our eggs in one basket three years out with no data from even the midterms.

I wasn't talking about the predictive discussion in any of my posts, other than my spiel about shitting on fields of study. Sorry if I wasn't clear somewhere.

 

[kirblar]

I'm not arguing with you about this again because I think you're fundamentally incorrect in your assumption and I'm on my phone and don't have time for this.

Why do you think they're not difficult states for Dems to win going forward? I don't understand this other than "We just won em 8 years ago!", which isn't a good argument.

kirblar basically did by arguing against putting resources into states like this.

(Pres level, not senate/house/etc!)

 

[AntraxSuicide]

(Pres level, not senate/house/etc!)

Right.

 

[whyamihere]

Why do you think they're not difficult states for Dems to win going forward? I don't understand this other than "We just won em 8 years ago!", which isn't a good argument.

(Pres level, not senate/house/etc!)

Making any assumptions three years out is a bad idea and putting your entire hopes in a sunbelt swing that might not happen (Hi Hillary) is a terrible idea and to swing any of these sunbelt states anyways you'll need to make gains with WWC anyways to win these sunbelt states you may rightfully assume are the "future" of the party.

But it's May of 2017 and making any assumptions is stupid! And economics is not a science! Neither is politics!

I'm tired and frustrated talking about this. Hail Perriello.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

whyamihere is one of the three posters here who I never, ever disagree with. If you find yourself arguing with him I would bet a lot of money that you're wrong.

 

[Holmes]

Democrat up 60-40 right now in the NY AD-09 special election. This is a Long Island district that went ~68% Republican last November.

 

[kirblar]

Making any assumptions three years out is a bad idea and putting your entire hopes in a sunbelt swing that might not happen (Hi Hillary) is a terrible idea and to swing any of these sunbelt states anyways you'll need to make gains with WWC anyways to win these sunbelt states you may rightfully assume are the "future" of the party.

But it's May of 2017 and making any assumptions is stupid! And economics is not a science! Neither is politics!

I'm tired and frustrated talking about this. Hail Perriello.

I feel like we're just talking past each other at this point. At the EC level the swing obviously isn't in play for 2020. I don't understand why you would take that away from what I'm saying.

 

[whyamihere]

Democrat up 60-40 right now in the NY AD-09 special election. This is a Long Island district that went ~68% Republican last November.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

you can tell its going to swing hard in 18. The problem I fear is the Democrats won't be ready to capitalize.

 

[kirblar]

you can tell its going to swing hard in 18. The problem I fear is the Democrats won't be ready to capitalize.

It is going to be very, very difficult to get the Senate because '06 was a wave and we're defending most seats.

If the house swings as wildly as the bellwether races are, we can get the capture on that and be in a great position to get a DDD in 2020. In the short term, just getting the House wrenched away is huge.

 

[whyamihere]

I feel like we're just talking past each other at this point. At the EC level the swing obviously isn't in play for 2020. I don't understand why you would take that away from what I'm saying.

You say "obviously" like I agree. I very plainly don't. I understand what you're saying. I just don't think anything is obviously! Fin!

 

[AntraxSuicide]

It is going to be very, very difficult to get the Senate because '06 was a wave and we're defending most seats.

If the house swings as wildly as the bellwether races are, we can get the capture on that and be in a great position to get a DDD in 2020. In the short term, just getting the House wrenched away is huge.

Also tons of state races. Post-Obama, any wins will be genuine (as opposed to our situation here in Mississippi that I mentioned above).

 

[Box of Kittens]

It is going to be very, very difficult to get the Senate because '06 was a wave and we're defending most seats.

If the house swings as wildly as the bellwether races are, we can get the capture on that and be in a great position to get a DDD in 2020. In the short term, just getting the House wrenched away is huge.

Dems gained Senate seats in 2000, 2006, and 2012, which is just ridiculous. Of course, 1994 was a disaster, but it's still very hard to make gains in the same class three elections in a row, let alone four.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Dems gained Senate seats in 2000, 2006, and 2012, which is just ridiculous. Of course, 1994 was a disaster, but it's still very hard to make gains in the same class three elections in a row, let alone four.

Didn't Dems technically gain senate seats in 2016 too?

 

[Autodidact]

Didn't Dems technically gain senate seats in 2016 too?

Different class of Senators.

 

[whyamihere]

Dem Christine Pellegrino is claiming victory in NY AD-9. Was a seat Trump won with 60%. Replaces a Republican.

 

[Autodidact]

Since we're on the topic of 2018 and House races, someone confirm something for me: if the Supreme Court finds partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional later this year, will we see the effects in 2018? Or will it take longer to draw the new districts, meaning we'll have to wait until 2020 for un-gerrymandered races?

 

[Roland_Gunner]

The extremes on both parties can agree on the virtues of exploiting Seth Rich's death if nothing else.

(Canova has since deleted the tweet in case you're looking for it on his account.)

 

[Wilsongt]

In regards to SC-5, I am really surprised on the Republican side that the old fat white guy who supported Trump and had veterns in his commercials and the ex-cop/prosecutor didn't win and instead lost out to a relative nobody who I never heard of before.

A shame that the Republican will win that race. Republicans voted nearly double what the Democrats did in both the regular primary and the run off. And the Democrat got 5K less votes than the current Republican candidate did in the run-off.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Dem Christine Pellegrino is claiming victory in NY AD-9. Was a seat Trump won with 60%. Replaces a Republican.

Trump only got 55% in Montana.

We've got this in the bag fam!

The extremes on both parties can agree on the virtues of exploiting Seth Rich's death if nothing else.

(Canova has since deleted the tweet in case you're looking for it on his account.)

Tim Catdog needs to go away forever

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Trump only got 55% in Montana.

We've got this in the bag fam!

You joke but Zinke's margin of victory was actually worse than Trump's by like at least five points iirc

I hope Quist wears his cowboy hat in Congress.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Dem Christine Pellegrino is claiming victory in NY AD-9. Was a seat Trump won with 60%. Replaces a Republican.

This is going to be a 35 - 40 point swing in just six months. Thats completely bananas. Every NY Rep who voted for the AHCA must be sweating buckets right now.

 

[whyamihere]

You joke but Zinke's margin of victory was actually worse than Trump's by like at least five points iirc

I hope Quist wears his cowboy hat in Congress.

I hope if he's elected he has someone else do his taxes.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I hope if he's elected he has someone else do his taxes.

Al Franken's on the case!

 

[whyamihere]

This NY race is crazy. I think it's the biggest swing yet.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

This is going to be a 35 - 40 point swing in just six months. Thats completely bananas. Every NY Rep who voted for the AHCA must be sweating buckets right now.

It's not as important as flipping states from red to blue but I would love to also create more super blue states where you can't get elected dog catcher as a Republican.

 

[Macho Madness]

This NY race is crazy. I think it's the biggest swing yet.

Worth pointing out this was a Obama -> Trump district too.

 

[whyamihere]

It's not as important as flipping states from red to blue but I would love to also create more super blue states where you can't get elected dog catcher as a Republican.

Be careful. That's how you get Tulsi Gabbards.

 

[Wilsongt]

Be careful. That's how you get Tulsi Gabbards.

LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE BERNIE ICON TULSI GABBARD

 

[kirblar]

This is going to be a 35 - 40 point swing in just six months. Thats completely bananas. Every NY Rep who voted for the AHCA must be sweating buckets right now.

Of the 34 Dems who voted against the ACA, only 3 are still in office.

It's going to be an albatross no matter how you voted.

Be careful. That's how you get Tulsi Gabbards.

Now I'm doubly angry at you because you beat me to this post!

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Worth pointing out this was a Obama -> Trump district too.

the first of its kind, then. The NH seat was won by Romney at least, unsure about McCain.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Long Island seems like exactly the kind of place that would go from "Okay, politics sucks, let's give Trump a chance" in November to "Holy shit this guy is a fucking lunatic" now.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I've been working with his campaign and will have a write up here soonish. It's worth noting that same VA establishment didn't want him to run last time either, and ultimately he was convinced not to run to avoid an Obama v Clinton (McAuliffe) loyalist campaign fight. He held off, played the team player role...he deserves some respect this time around.

It's going to be fun.

Also curious where the Republican side will go. Corey Stewart has been around for a long time. He was the chairman of my County. His policies are just as bad, if not worse than the Freedom Caucus and Trump. He ran Trump like policies in our county in 2007 such as performing the most extreme immigration measures ever taken in the country. Curious whether the more moderate, establishment Republican will win the primary or if it will go to Corey Stewart.

 

[Plinko]

Omg they have Pence doing robocalls in Montana instead of Trump.

"Pence doing robocalls" is redundant.

This is going to be a 35 - 40 point swing in just six months. Thats completely bananas. Every NY Rep who voted for the AHCA must be sweating buckets right now.

Amazing. Good news for 2018.

 

[whyamihere]

Long Island seems like exactly the kind of place that would go from "Okay, politics sucks, let's give Trump a chance" in November to "Holy shit this guy is a fucking lunatic" now.

Lots of hand movements while they do so.

Worth pointing out this was a Obama -> Trump district too.

Margin? Still on my phone and can't check excel.

 

[kirblar]

Also curious where the Republican side will go. Corey Stewart has been around for a long time. He was the chairman of my County. His policies are just as bad, if not worse than the Freedom Caucus and Trump. He ran Trump like policies in our county in 2007 such as performing the most extreme immigration measures ever taken in the country. Curious whether the more moderate, establishment Republican will win the primary or if it will go to Corey Stewart.

Most recent poll I could find has Gillespie way way way in the lead. https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...c_story.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.2171a7099357

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Be careful. That's how you get Tulsi Gabbards.

Yeah but it's also easy to primary folks like that since the primary in super partisan places is essentially the race. You only have to suck it up and run bad candidates in places where the bad candidate is the only one that can win; in states like Hawaii you can afford to bet on perfect instead of just okay.

 

[whyamihere]

Now I'm doubly angry at you because you beat me to this post!

lololol

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Corey Stewart being in the race at least gave us the hilarious VA GOP statement denouncing his use of 'cuckservative' to describe Gilliespie.