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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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$15 minimum wage rollout:

DAr3ftaXgAE_vKZ.jpg:orig
Is someone introducing a bill or what?

Bernie should be happy, next PresiDem will probably make this and Conyers' bill top priorities.
 
Is someone introducing a bill or what?

Bernie should be happy, next PresiDem will probably make this and Conyers' bill top priorities.
I think this is setting the stage for the 2018 platform. Raising the minimum wage is popular and this would take probably a decade or so to fully mature.


I am correct:

@eschor
Pelosi commits to taking up a $15 minimum wage bill within first 100 hours if Dems take House in 2018.
 
I always liked the idea of a smart national minimum wage tied to local cost of living. 15 everywhere feels like it'd do real damage in places like Mississippi.

That's hard to campaign on, though.
 

Wilsongt

Member
WASHINGTON — An American airstrike in March killed more than 100 Iraqi civilians by inadvertently setting off a large amount of explosives that Islamic State fighters had placed in a building in Mosul, according to a long-awaited military investigation made public on Thursday.

Critics have said the March 17 airstrike demonstrated that the United States has been too quick to use air power in a congested city filled with hundreds of thousands of civilians. But the Pentagon investigation put the primary blame on the Islamic State, asserting that it placed the explosives in the building and then had two snipers fire at Iraqi forces from the area.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/05/...typ=cur&referer=https://t.co/xDEh96AcoG?amp=1
 

Hindl

Member
I think this is setting the stage for the 2018 platform. Raising the minimum wage is popular and this would take probably a decade or so to fully mature.


I am correct:

@eschor
Pelosi commits to taking up a $15 minimum wage bill within first 100 hours if Dems take House in 2018.

That's a bad idea. $15 in the major cities sure, but they should instead make the minimum wage adjustable based on where you live and just make it automatically increase with inflation
 
That's a bad idea. $15 in the major cities sure, but they should instead make the minimum wage adjustable based on where you live and just make it automatically increase with inflation

If you have a choice of 1) Getting $15 now or 2) Pegging minimum wage to inflation; you take option 2.
 
I always liked the idea of a smart national minimum wage tied to local cost of living. 15 everywhere feels like it'd do real damage in places like Mississippi.

That's hard to campaign on, though.

That would be the best. A flat $15 does not make sense, it just sounds nice. Mind you they should probably increase it for some rural areas just not that high.
 
15 is fine for places like New York or California, but it seems crippling in places like Mississippi where there just isn't the money there to do it.

Certainly we want to help raise up the underemployed in states, but we also don't want their economies to crash and have minimum wage be blamed.

Agreed, although even if they do tie it to inflation, they still need to increase it anyway. A national minimum of $9-10 would be best

Yea, 10, but tied to inflation seems fine. Blue states can set it to what they want if they can go higher.

Come to think of it, are there any poor blue states?
 
I think this is setting the stage for the 2018 platform. Raising the minimum wage is popular and this would take probably a decade or so to fully mature.


I am correct:

@eschor
Pelosi commits to taking up a $15 minimum wage bill within first 100 hours if Dems take House in 2018.
The 100 hours strategy is a good one, it worked great for 2006 and gives the party something to rally around.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100-Hour_Plan
 

Blader

Member
I think this is setting the stage for the 2018 platform. Raising the minimum wage is popular and this would take probably a decade or so to fully mature.


I am correct:

@eschor
Pelosi commits to taking up a $15 minimum wage bill within first 100 hours if Dems take House in 2018.

Another reason to dump Pelosi. We need a speaker who will bring up a bill in the first 100 seconds.
 
The only negative part of leaving minimum wage to states is that GOP governments can fuck over cities in their states (which they are well within their right to do).

Tying it to inflation is better policy but worse politics imo
 
Perhaps they are rallying behind the idea for now, but will work out something once they get control of the House. I imagine a lot of businesses both small and large, and some rural Democrats will voice their concerns more aggressively once the legislation process starts.
 
Yea, 10, but tied to inflation seems fine. Blue states can set it to what they want if they can go higher.

Come to think of it, are there any poor blue states?
New Mexico, Maine, Vermont and Rhode Island all have a GDP per capita that is below the nation's. If we're counting states that have become recently purple but are historically blue, so does Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (lol)
 
I believe if minimum wage was always tied to inflation it would be around $11 bucks an hour currently. It's only higher in some estimates because they also tie minimum wage to productivity as well as inflation. $15 bucks is high for a national wage IMO.
 
Dems are losing the house in 2022 anyway. Might as well go out with a bang
I agree with this take but I really hope it doesn't pan out.

I just want to see Dems get three good cycles in a row and have massive House and Senate majorities ready to get shit done. The 2018 Senate class is already near maxed out if we're being realistic, but I want the 2020 and 2022 classes like that too.
 

kirblar

Member
Oh yeah, we probably won't have the Senate. So it can't pass anyway. Thus, votes are likely to be entirely symbolic. (If we did have the Senate, they'd probably end up fixing the bill cause of the rural state over-representation anyway.)
I believe if minimum wage was always tied to inflation it would be around $11 bucks an hour currently. It's only higher in some estimates because they also tie minimum wage to productivity as well as inflation. $15 bucks is high for a national wage IMO.
Correct, 11/12 is the actual range we should be shooting for as a baseline.
 

hawk2025

Member
Y'all, listen to your South American cousins that have lived through real inflation:


Don't tie any prices by law to inflation.

ANY prices.
 
I agree with this take but I really hope it doesn't pan out.

I just want to see Dems get three good cycles in a row and have massive House and Senate majorities ready to get shit done. The 2018 Senate class is already near maxed out if we're being realistic, but I want the 2020 and 2022 classes like that too.

2022, he's going to retire and McCain's seat is ours. That feels like such an opportunity opening up for a new permanent Democrat Senate seat.

Or he'll be an old curmudgeon, run anyway, retire/die a year into his term and never really open the seat to Democrats to win...

We need to break this back and forth cycle. It's TERRIBLE for legislation. You can't rely on only two years of full majorities to pass anything. We haven't had any major piece of legislation passed in this country since the ACA almost a decade ago...
 

kirblar

Member
Y'all, listen to your South American cousins that have lived through real inflation:

Don't tie any prices by law to inflation.

ANY prices.
Yes, it's a problem if you don't have a functioning central banking system.

Thankfully, we've had one here for a long time and there's no signs of their turf being encroached.

If it is, we're fucked anyway.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
Oh yeah, we probably won't have the Senate. So it can't pass anyway. Thus, votes are likely to be entirely symbolic. (If we did have the Senate, they'd probably end up fixing the bill cause of the rural state over-representation anyway.)

Correct, 11/12 is the actual range we should be shooting for as a baseline.

The point is probably to start the conversation at 15, then when it settles on 12 you can say, it's a good spot, it's where it would have been based on inflation.
 
2022, he's going to retire and McCain's seat is ours. That feels like such an opportunity opening up for a new permanent Democrat Senate seat.

Or he'll be an old curmudgeon, run anyway, retire/die a year into his term and never really open the seat to Democrats to win...

We need to break this back and forth cycle. It's TERRIBLE for legislation. You can't rely on only two years of full majorities to pass anything. We haven't had any major piece of legislation passed in this country since the ACA almost a decade ago...
I think both Grassley and McCain retire in 2022 and we should play for both of their seats.

Would also gun for FL, PA, NC, WI, MO if Kander runs again.
 

kirblar

Member
The point is probably to start the conversation at 15, then when it settles on 12 you can say, it's a good spot, it's where it would have been based on inflation.
No. This is not how things work. Negotiation in politics does not work like this. (Hell, I used this exact example argument as the liberal corollary to Trump's approach yesterday!)

The $15/hr movement is backed/bankrolled by labor groups. They have been successfully getting $15/hr in blue cities across the country. (I believe the only statewide law so far is NY, which did allow for lower amounts in the suburbs and rural areas.)

There is no real negotiation going on here. They're generally getting what they want.
 

teiresias

Member
Isn't this the type of Trump deal making tactics that people think is brilliant negotiating?

It was a common complaint about Obama NOT operating in that way when making policy proposals and 'negotiating himself down" to an already compromised starting position, particularly in budget battles etc.
 
not sure if it was posted already, but good Politico piece on whether or not Dems should give up on gun control. I'm tempted to say it's the one issue worth throwing away in the name of winning. The political costs are so fucking high, forcing the potential impact on gun violence from each tiny, incremental piece of gun control legislation to be imperceptibly low.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/24/democrats-guns-rob-quist-215186

I completely agree, even as someone who would love a society without guns. Gun control and abortion are the two issues so many people will carry to their grave defending. Freedom to do what you want with your body is worth fighting for, but drop gun control, it can't hurt, but can definitely help.
 

kirblar

Member
Back off on guns (we can't get anything meaningful passed even when we have major majorities) and going in on Weed legalization are the only two actual policy changes that we need to make going forward.
 

studyguy

Member
The fallacy that 2A voters will suddenly flip to Dems if they stop criticizing guns is silly. NRA will push the narrative that Dems are going to take your guns even if the democrat running is in an ad shooting a fucking rifle.

Quist is all in on 2A and the NRA literally put out an ad saying he's full of shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist talking about defending the 2A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGIrYUci114
NRA giving him shit about it.


Democrats will never win on 2A, fullstop. So why act like backing off of it will bring any meaningful change.
Rob-Quist-on-guns-qob-quist-montana-rob-quist-shoots-a-tv-rob-quist-Nra-attacks-rob-quist-guns-rob-quist-second-amendment-tv.png
 
Back off on guns (we can't get anything meaningful passed even when we have major majorities) and going in on Weed legalization are the only two actual policy changes that we need to make going forward.
I wouldn't say only changes but I agree.

Our rhetoric on guns is toxic to rural voters. Sure we should support background checks and other things but wasting so much political capitol on trying to shove through stuff like "no fly no buy", which, even if we passed it would likely get shot down for being blatantly unconstitutional, is pointless. We gain nothing and just lose seats

And also honestly given that half of gun deaths per year are from suicide I actually think that healthcare/ mental health care improvements would actually save more lives per year than any of the legislation on guns Dems are trying to pass would.
 
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