Depends on if an example wants to be made. If someone assaulted the rep, they probably would. Not in the opposite case though.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Depends on if an example wants to be made. If someone assaulted the rep, they probably would. Not in the opposite case though.
balladofwindfishes
Member
How does a tiny state where 75% of the people vote before election day take so long to count votes?
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
It's going to be a long night, folks.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
And if democrats can't even win this one with the news, how could the ever win the next one?
At most it's just one less moderate they can release from voting for the Senate's AHCA bill before the seat gets filled again.
It's only 2:30 pm on the east coast.
The entire state probably goes to bed at like... 8. Gotta wake up early to tend to that cattle.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The news will have a negligible effect on the election. Assume this election is running without yesterday's news.
I guess this is kind of a downside to lax early voting laws, but nothing like this could have been predicted.
I was replying to the reports that Montana would take until the middle of the night or tomorrow morning to count.
Gurgelhals
Member
Spot the difference:
whyamihere
Banned
I'm not an #expert in Montana, but my guess on things to look for:
Gallatin (Bozeman): swung to Democrats, including Chillary, in 2016. A swing county usually. Highly educated. Quist needs to run up the margin here. Tester had a really good swing here.
Cascade: Split county of Bullock/Trump. Fifth biggest county. If Quist is winning here, he probably is winning the night.
Lewis And Clark (Helena): Bullock/Trump county, but just barely Trump. Quist needs a huge margin here.
Missoula County: Quist will win, but needs big numbers and TURNOUT. Solid turnout here is good if Quist can cut into Gianforte's numbers in the rurals.
Silver Bow County (Butte): A place where national Dems still do well. Labor strong hold. Should be great for Quist. If he's meh here, he's going to lose.
Yellowstone County (Billing): The big one. Biggest county in the state. 48.7% Gianforte, 47.9% Bullock. If Quist wins here, Quist wins. Even if Gianforte wins here, watch the margin. If it's a small win of a point or so, Quist has a good shot of winning the state. We knew that Tester was probably going to win because he actually won Yellowstone, unlike Bullock!
Gallatin (Bozeman): swung to Democrats, including Chillary, in 2016. A swing county usually. Highly educated. Quist needs to run up the margin here. Tester had a really good swing here.
Cascade: Split county of Bullock/Trump. Fifth biggest county. If Quist is winning here, he probably is winning the night.
Lewis And Clark (Helena): Bullock/Trump county, but just barely Trump. Quist needs a huge margin here.
Missoula County: Quist will win, but needs big numbers and TURNOUT. Solid turnout here is good if Quist can cut into Gianforte's numbers in the rurals.
Silver Bow County (Butte): A place where national Dems still do well. Labor strong hold. Should be great for Quist. If he's meh here, he's going to lose.
Yellowstone County (Billing): The big one. Biggest county in the state. 48.7% Gianforte, 47.9% Bullock. If Quist wins here, Quist wins. Even if Gianforte wins here, watch the margin. If it's a small win of a point or so, Quist has a good shot of winning the state. We knew that Tester was probably going to win because he actually won Yellowstone, unlike Bullock!
The problem was thinking that this is the kind of bad news that would effect most Republicans.
Body slamming liberal journalists is the exact kind macho bullshit Republicans would like in their dream candidate.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Should have led off with "I don't know how much the rest of you know about Montana (I'm an expert)..."
Seriously though, thanks for this.
nature boy
Member
Only the last one is a Rush caller. The other two were in-person.
Not a sample, just there are shitheads (and good people) everywhere.
Macho Madness
Member
Gallatin is also very important because it covers the section of Yellowstone Park that it's in Montana. The bison vote is very important, though it's the elk you've got to watch for.
Probably one of the most disgusting things I've read in a long time.
When you have to out up such half-baked opinions just to say you're open to opposing views, you have to ask if it's really even worth it.
whyamihere
Banned
They're not. They wait until the entire precinct is counted, apparently.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
You can't count mail in early because mail in voters can show up in person to change their vote, usually allowed.
They actually can't do that in Montana. (This needs to change, it's a valid criticism of mail-in-vote systems that don't allow it.)
whyamihere
Banned
#tbt to when Obama almost won Montana in 08
Spoiled Milk
Banned
author of such other great hits like "Politics aside, you've got to respect Kellyanne Conway's success as an entrepreneur."
whyamihere
Banned
Counties at west are too big and drawn stupidly and make little sense when you're looking at election results.
shadowsdarknes
Member
I've felt the same way for a bit now.
There are plenty of people who are otherwise liberal who also love guns.
The Democrats nuanced approach to guns often falls on deaf ears when the right wing takes your arguments and boils it down to, "The state wants to disarm you".
Gun violence and gun culture is a very real problem in this country.
Staying off of my forums tonight entirely. Think i'll watch the Dumb and Dumber DVD i bought on vacation.
Fuck Walker.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Way to go Wisconsin voters. Good job.
nature boy
Member
Here I was thinking the GA06 runoff was early June
Still a month away.
Still a month away.
Walker wants to keep the courts busy, I see.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
This is super good, thanks!
JetBlackPanda
Member
Gianforte is going to win huh?
Mr.Shrugglesã
Banned
What is he holding?
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'm gonna be really bummed if Gianforte still wins. Between having already lost an election there, the CBO report, assaulting the reporter, having his endorsements retracted, mail-in voting favoring dems, and MT having same-day registration following the assault story we couldn't give many more advantages to Quist hete.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ironically, Montana's special was going to be all mail-in as a cost-saving measure and the Republicans blocked it because golly gee, that would help the Democrats! But this actually would have hurt them in this instance.
CBO report, assault, and retracted endorsements happened much too close to election day. If these things had come out maybe a week ago, it would've been a much bigger advantage to Quist. At this point, a majority of voters may have already physically locked in to their choices well ahead of any of these things.
Is it new oppo-droppo or is it literally a meta-story about oppo-droppo time.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Well, that would be very NPR of them.
cartoon_soldier
Member
95% Gianforte win
5% Quist win
Any margin lower than 5 points will be alarm bells for GOP in case of Gianforte win.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's probably closer to 60/40 than 95/5.
A metappo storappo on whoppo oppo droppos whenoppo itoppo doppoes.
VendettaRed07
Member
I don't think so.
Close doesn't cut it. They have to start to actually lose in order for any alarms to go off
Armoured Priest
Member
Makes me think of opa-opa
If you squint your eyes, it kinda looks like Opa-opa is shooting Trump.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
A report on Trump's hands
Unless Gianforte won by like 10%, they probably ignore the results, chocking it up to his assault. Even if they lose, they probably won't acknowledge they have a problem unless ossoff wins.
nature boy
Member
To cover his legal fees lol
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