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[Aaron Strife]

Yeah, I (sadly and reluctantly) agree with dropping gun control as a major issue. The problem is even when you get 90% consensus on like background checks for example, the only people who are motivated to vote by that issue are the 10% nutjobs who are against it. Then they tell two friends, they tell two friends and oh look at that, 50% of the country thinks your gun control bill goes too far when in reality it doesn't go anywhere near what we need.

 

[kirblar]

Maybe not then. Using 2013 dollar it looks like it would have maxed out at 11 in the 60's and would have been 8 dollar in 2010. What am I missing?

The original minimum wage would be $4 adjusted to today, he's not wrong about that.

What also goes unstated is that the minimum wage includes health benefits that aren't counted as part of your income, yet are still paid for by your employer. They've been sucking up actual wage gains for a long time.

 

[Coriolanus]

Maybe not then. Using 2013 dollar it looks like it would have maxed out at 11 in the 60's and would have been 8 dollar in 2010. What am I missing?

Nominal value differs from inflated value.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

Notch tweeted the words "Seth Rich." Not sure if he's just gone full Trumpy or is trolling.

https://twitter.com/notch/status/867712929474510848?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Notch has been Trumpy for a while now.

 

[Emerson]

The fallacy that 2A voters will suddenly flip to Dems if they stop criticizing guns is silly. NRA will push the narrative that Dems are going to take your guns even if the democrat running is in an ad shooting a fucking rifle.

Quist is all in on 2A and the NRA literally put out an ad saying he's full of shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist talking about defending the 2A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGIrYUci114
NRA giving him shit about it.


Democrats will never win on 2A, fullstop. So why act like backing off of it will bring any meaningful change.

I mean, the narrative you're spelling out there is not accurate. Quist's gun ad is a response to the NRA ads. The NRA ad is literally on the TV he's shooting in his ad.

I'm not saying the NRA won't continue to spout bullshit. But I'm quite sure there are a non-zero number of rural people who saw Quist's ad and said "Alright, now that's a man I'm proud to vote for!" It's a fairly effective ad.

The problem with continuing to harp on gun control is that:

1) It's up there with abortion as far as single issues that are literally dealbreakers for a significant population
2) We aren't actually able to accomplish anything on it despite trying for decades

Personally, I'm pro-gun and pro gun control as well. I don't think gun control should be a prominent message in Democratic campaigns overall, aside from constituencies where it plays very well. We just stand to gain much less than it loses us.

 

[TestOfTide]

That's a bad idea. $15 in the major cities sure, but they should instead make the minimum wage adjustable based on where you live and just make it automatically increase with inflation

I don't like tying wage to inflation because if you have a bad enough recession, you end up with deflation which will DECREASE minimum wage.

 

[Fenderputty]

The original minimum wage would be $4 adjusted to today, he's not wrong about that.

Ok now I'm really confused lol. You agreed with me that if the original minimum wage was always tied to inflation it would be around 11/12 today. When did I ever mention what the original minimum wage would have been if tied to today's dollar?

 

[whyamihere]

WHERE

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LINES

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VOTERS

IN

MONTANA

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Maybe not then. Using 2013 dollar it looks like it would have maxed out at 11 in the 60's and would have been 8 dollar in 2010. What am I missing?

The dark purple is what the minimum wage actually is at that point in time. The light purple is what that would have been in 2013 dollars. It is a graph of what Congress did: change the minimum wage every few years.

If you want to see what 1942's minimum wage would look like today, look at the light purple. A little more than $4 in 2013, adjusted for inflation.

 

[Hooligan69]

its like the republican party as a whole is imploding under trump, at this rate no republican will survive 4 years of trump.

Never underestimate how poisoned the well is for reich-wing derps and their hate for libruls.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

WHERE

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LINES

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VOTERS

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MONTANA

 

[Futurevoid]

The 4th Circuit has affirmed a bulk of the injunction on travel ban 2.0.

Brian Goldman‏ @briangoldman 3m3 minutes ago
More
Replying to @briangoldman
Fourth Circuit affirms the bulk of the injunction against the executive order. #IRAPvTrump

 

[BoogieWoogie]

I'll see you in court!

 

[Fenderputty]

The dark purple is what the minimum wage actually is at that point in time. The light purple is what that would have been in 2013 dollars. It is a graph of what Congress did: change the minimum wage every few years.

If you want to see what 1942's minimum wage would look like today, look at the light purple. A little more than $4 in 2013, adjusted for inflation.

I get that. He's said I was wrong that today's minimum wage would be higher if always tied to inflation.

I believe if minimum wage was always tied to inflation it would be around $11 bucks an hour currently. It's only higher in some estimates because they also tie minimum wage to productivity as well as inflation. $15 bucks is high for a national wage IMO.

This is what he was contesting.

 

[TestOfTide]

The fallacy that 2A voters will suddenly flip to Dems if they stop criticizing guns is silly. NRA will push the narrative that Dems are going to take your guns even if the democrat running is in an ad shooting a fucking rifle.

Quist is all in on 2A and the NRA literally put out an ad saying he's full of shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsMlhdrz7nE
Quist talking about defending the 2A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGIrYUci114
NRA giving him shit about it.


Democrats will never win on 2A, fullstop. So why act like backing off of it will bring any meaningful change.

I said it before and I'll say it again:

The issue isn't whether or not Dems are for gun regulations.

The issue is WHO you have talking about guns.

I get why Chris Murphy wants to talk about guns, but considering he has never touched a gun in his life he is a HORRIBLE choice to be talking about guns.

Meanwhile Kander did as well as he did because his ad was a great way of showing that regardless of his positions on gun regulations he actually knows a damn thing or two about guns.

You don't have to cede ground on gun control so much as you need to make sure that the only people on the Dem side talking about guns are people who actually know guns.

 

[Diablos]

Lawl

 

[TestOfTide]

WHERE

ARE

THE

PICTURES

OF

LINES

OF

VOTERS

IN

MONTANA

Considering that early votes lean our way wouldn't it be a GOOD for turnout to not be as high on E-DAY?

 

[kirblar]

Ok now I'm really confused lol. You agreed with me that if the original minimum wage was always tied to inflation it would be around 11/12 today. When did I ever mention what the original minimum wage would have been if tied to today's dollar?

Yeah, me/you were wrong on that part-that's true of the '60s/'70s era wage, but not the entire thing from the beginning, but I still agree that 11/12 is the optimal baseline we should be shooting for on a national level.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I don't like tying wage to inflation because if you have a bad enough recession, you end up with deflation which will DECREASE minimum wage.

Every fund ever is tied to either COLA or a special index tracking a sector of the economy (see Medicaid). Tying anything to inflation is like tying your food budget to your energy bill.

I get that. He's said I was wrong that today's minimum wage would be higher if always tied to inflation.

What does this sentence even mean? Tied to inflation since when?

 

[Fenderputty]

What does this sentence even mean? Tied to inflation since when?

Since the beginning.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Since the beginning.

First federal minimum wage was $0.25. Adjusted for inflation, that's about $4.25 now.

 

[Got the Shakes]

There really isn't anything that Trump won't lie about.

Jennifer Jacobs‏Verified account @JenniferJJacobs 9m9 minutes ago

Trump denied he supported National Front's Le Pen in France's election. "You were my guy'' he told Macron today, French officials say.

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/867801970094034944

 

[Lo-Volt]

The administration is losing court cases so quickly I didn't even see that the travel ban case was already covered.

 

[Fenderputty]

Yeah, me/you were wrong on that part-that's true of the '60s/'70s era wage, but not the entire thing from the beginning, but I still agree that 11/12 is the optimal baseline we should be shooting for on a national level.

First federal minimum wage was $0.25. Adjusted for inflation, that's about $4.25 now.

Ahhhh ... so all the current figures using the 11 dollar an hour thing are pegging minimum wage to the 60's. I was reading the graph incorrectly. Apologies.

 

[Armaros]

THAT LIBRUL 9TH CIRC....

oh wait.

 

[Futurevoid]

The administration is losing court cases so quickly I didn't even see that the travel ban case was already covered.

You edited too quick for me.

 

[Macho Madness]

LOL whoops

 

[Slacker]

Amazing to think that this whole Trump Goes To Yoorup trip has been 100% scripted so far. No tweeting, no press conferences. And yet he still manages to be horrifyingly embarrassing at every stop. Can't wait until the 4th Circuit ruling sends him back to twitter in a rage.

 

[whyamihere]

this is good #content

 

[Veritigo_X]

Break up the 4th Circuit

 

[nature boy]

Someone asked about Montana right?

Kyung Lah‏Verified account
@KyungLahCNN
MT GOP voter, upon learning we're from @CNN: "You're lucky someone doesn't pop one of you."

Garrett Haake‏Verified account
@GarrettHaake
Gianforte voter to me in Bozeman just now, after declining an interview: "I think reporters have it coming."

Mike Gara‏
@garami53
@NoahCRothman 4th call from Montana on Rush: All support the "manly" candidate. Example : "Reporters have to answer for their rudeness"

 

[Fenderputty]

Can we pop those asshole for their rudeness? Snowflakes indeed.

 

[whyamihere]

Someone asked about Montana right?

Yes I would assume die hards who showed up on election day after this event would believe this. More interested in those who stayed home.

 

[Hindl]

Someone asked about Montana right?

This was what I thought would happen. People assumed Montana voters would be outraged/embarrassed by the GOP body slam, but a lot on the right absolutely hate the media. Do people not remember all of the threatening and screaming the media endured at Trump rallies last year? If anything, that'll just give him a boost. Depends on how the Republican base in Montana splits between far right and moderates

 

[Zolo]

Yes I would assume die hards who showed up on election day after this even would believe this. More interested in those who stayed home.

Yeah. I think this may be a case where less people showing up than usual might be better since it would mean Republicans were discouraged from voting for him.

 

[Owzers]

This was what I thought would happen. People assumed Montana voters would be outraged/embarrassed by the GOP body slam, but a lot on the right absolutely hate the media. Do people not remember all of the threatening and screaming the media endured at Trump rallies last year? If anything, that'll just give him a boost

Finally a champion of the people has emerged to teach reporters a lesson. I hope he loses but he's totally winning.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Yes I would assume die hards who showed up on election day after this even would believe this. More interested in those who stayed home.

Right, as I said in the other thread, that's gonna self select pretty heavily.

 

[TestOfTide]

Yes I would assume die hards who showed up on election day after this even would believe this. More interested in those who stayed home.

Yeah, like it's not really a story that GOP diehards will say anything to justify whatever the GOP does.

What's more important is if they were able to find people who were outraged by the event.

 

[Emerson]

Rush call-ins? Pretty much a self-selected sample.

Nobody in their right mind thought Gianforte would lose his entire voting base because of this. The hope is that he loses 2-3% of the population, mainly swing voters and it costs him the election.

The fact that a handful of hard-right voters haven't changed their minds is literally irrelevant to that.

 

[Box of Kittens]

This was what I thought would happen. People assumed Montana voters would be outraged/embarrassed by the GOP body slam, but a lot on the right absolutely hate the media. Do people not remember all of the threatening and screaming the media endured at Trump rallies last year? If anything, that'll just give him a boost. Depends on how the Republican base in Montana splits between far right and moderates

I would think the people this gives him a boost with would be voting for him anyway. The question is what this does to turnout, which is hard to answer with anecdotes.

 

[Zolo]

This was what I thought would happen. People assumed Montana voters would be outraged/embarrassed by the GOP body slam, but a lot on the right absolutely hate the media. Do people not remember all of the threatening and screaming the media endured at Trump rallies last year? If anything, that'll just give him a boost. Depends on how the Republican base in Montana splits between far right and moderates

To be honest, I can kinda see why since the victim didn't suffer serious injuries. A lot of our entertainment media basically encourages fighting bullies, punching assholes in the face, etc. A lot of these supporters probably see this like that.

 

[whyamihere]

This was what I thought would happen. People assumed Montana voters would be outraged/embarrassed by the GOP body slam, but a lot on the right absolutely hate the media. Do people not remember all of the threatening and screaming the media endured at Trump rallies last year? If anything, that'll just give him a boost. Depends on how the Republican base in Montana splits between far right and moderates

I mean, again, the die hards who were always going to vote Republican were going to justify this because of partisanship. The more interesting story is those who stayed home.

@mcimaps
Alot of problems with reports from Montana about voters and how they are being effected by the body-slam incident #MTAL

@mcimaps
1) There are accounts of people being turned off by the incident, folks calling in about changing vote, others saying staying home

@mcimaps
And staying home is a much more likely scenario if you lean R, not voting Quist. And its hard to quantify who's staying home right now

@mcimaps
Sure folks at polls say "Doesnt matter" but how large of a % is that? Can only talk to so many, no timing for polling

@mcimaps
While there is an anti-journalism sentiment with the far right, the bigger force is folk's partisan leanings allowing them to excuse events

@mcimaps
I think of hard-left Alan Grayson going off on reporters, claims he left wife/kids with no money/ domestic violence.. his fans didnt care

@mcimaps
If you like someone, or like a party, its very easy to make excuses. And MANY have not heard the audio.. and no video.. easy to blow off

@mcimaps
Easy to say "oh reporter was prob aggressive too" -- you dont personally give a shit, you just want an R in that seat

@mcimaps
And with less than 24 hours post-incident, most MT voters have not consumed all details like we have. Alot of news in quick passing

@mcimaps
Whole diff story if this is like 2 weeks ago, and guy must appear to Sheriff pre-election, issue sinks in with voters more

Rush call-ins? Pretty much a self-selected sample.

Nobody in their right mind thought Gianforte would lose his entire voting base because of this. The hope is that he loses 2-3% of the population, mainly swing voters and it costs him the election.

The fact that a handful of hard-right voters haven't changed their minds is literally irrelevant to that.

Exactly.

If Gianforte loses like 5% of his Election Day base? Uh oh.

 

[Mobius and pet octopus]

He faces up to 6 months jail time if he is found guilty though lol.

Have fun attending congress from behind bars.

 

[Macho Madness]

He faces up to 6 months jail time if he is found guilty though lol.

Have fun attending congress from behind bars.

I doubt he serves a single minute of jail time. Probation or something equivalent at most. If he was sentenced to 6 months in jail, there'd be tremendous pressure on him to resign and we'd get to do this whole song and dance again.

 

[whyamihere]

oh no

@Nate_Cohn
Bad news about Montana: The count could take a while.
D primary wasn't called until 2AM (Sanders+7)
Gov '16 wasn't called until 10AM (D+4)

 

[Hindl]

I would think the people this gives him a boost with would be voting for him anyway. The question is what this does to turnout, which is hard to answer with anecdotes.

I mean, again, the die hards who were always going to vote Republican were going to justify this because of partisanship. The more interesting story is those who stayed home.





Exactly.

If Gianforte loses like 5% of his Election Day base? Uh oh.

Yeah that's true I guess we'll just have to wait and see. When do polls close/do we start getting results tonight?

Edit: ^ Damn right as I post

 

[Fenderputty]

He faces up to 6 months jail time if he is found guilty though lol.

Have fun attending congress from behind bars.

Who faces the maximum penalty with no priors? He's gonna get community service and a small fine at most.

 

[Wilsongt]

Someone asked about Montana right?

Colberticalledit.gif

Librul media deserved it and Republican voters condone it.

 

[TestOfTide]

oh no

We'll know based on today's turnout.

If turnout is heavily leaning towards E-DAY and is more rural than usual, then Gianforte wins.

If turnout is down on E-DAY or is more suburban/"urban" than usual, then Quist has a good shot.

Colberticalledit.gif

Librul media deserved it and Republican voters condone it.

Well this anti-media shit isn't going to last much longer as MSNBC and CNN keep beating Fox in ratings.

Vast Majority of people WANT media that doesn't suck up to the GOP or Trump.

 

[Beer Monkey]

@Nate_Cohn
Bad news about Montana: The count could take a while.
D primary wasn't called until 2AM (Sanders+7)
Gov '16 wasn't called until 10AM (D+4)

Well I guess it's beer and whiskey night.