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[Plinko]

Man; where was this Clinton pre-election? If she was always as loose as this, she might've been able to fight some of the trustworthy stuff more easily.

She showed a little during one of the debates and then it disappeared after. Not sure why. I remember the discussion on here about how she finally seemed like her real self.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias 13m
KS-04 R+15
MT-AL R+11
GA-06 R+8

Paul Ryan's seat is R+5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Any Wisconsin gaffer want to take down the speaker of the house?

I haven't seen an analysis of this, but I would expect the Speaker usually does better than would otherwise be expected given their district. He's also well-liked in his district. He has a strong constituent services record and all.

That having been said, it's not unprecedented for the Speaker to lose their seat. Tom Foley lost in the 1994 Republican wave. Ryan's policies would certainly screw over that district particularly hard. Put up a good candidate and if there's big enough blue wave it's not impossible.

And he also lost.

Right, but he outperformed Clinton by a lot. He was clearly a good candidate, the inherent challenges of that particular election were just too much for even that to overcome. In a better political environment that kind of performance translates to wins.

 

[kirblar]

She showed a little during one of the debates and then it disappeared after. Not sure why. I remember the discussion on here about how she finally seemed like her real self.

30 years of habit and the fact that she's not a good liar.

 

[studyguy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/868134557798805505

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict)
In #MTAL, Quist (D) received 94% of Clinton's vote total, while Gianforte (R) received 68% of Trump's. I think this is a problem for GOP.

Chronic underperformance is the name of the game leading to 2018.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

I don't think Quist even talked about guns and cut that ad where he shoots the TV until the NRA started attacking him, right?

So, do you come out first saying "I support background checks only" and get attacked by the NRA? Or do you stay silent on guns until the NRA attacks you, at which point they've defined you no matter what your response?

"Dems need to stop running on guns" just doesn't seem like an actually actionable strategy to me when the other side has already got you framed no matter what you do or don't say.

I'm honestly for dropping the issue entirely, but I know that won't happen.

 

[Pixieking]

30 years of habit and the fact that she's not a good liar.

Also, constantly being attacked made her incredibly wary/insular/afraid of putting a step wrong in public. Absolutely heartbreaking if true:

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/780227573964017665

Anyone who questions where the real Hillary was during the campaign just needs to read the trash that was written about her from the mid 80s on.

 

[Macho Madness]

Healthcare healthcare healthcare

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/868137900168417280

@prioritiesUSA In new @prioritiesUSA poll, voters were asked which concerned them more: 47% said healthcare, 35% said Russia. https://www.politicopro.com/campaig...-russia-hurting-trump-not-gop-congress-157411

healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare

 

[sc0la]

Ryan's is only +5?

AARP going to go in HARD on him.

There is a joke about ED and men if a certain age in here but I ca....

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/868134557798805505
Chronic underperformance is the name of the game leading to 2018.

There it is.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

I'm honestly for dropping the issue entirely, but I know that won't happen.

And it shouldn't, because that's a sure fire way to depress minority turnout.

The problem is that literally any kind of regulation - even something like background checks - on guns is seen as anti-gun.

 

[Wilsongt]

Damn. The Queen visited some of the victims of the Manchester bombing in the hospital.

 

[Wilsongt]

Also, constantly being attacked made her incredibly wary/insular/afraid of putting a step wrong in public. Absolutely heartbreaking if true:

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/780227573964017665

Anyone who questions where the real Hillary was during the campaign just needs to read the trash that was written about her from the mid 80s on.

Or read any GAF thread that mentions Hillary.

 

[Box of Kittens]

We don't have enough data to know why but one thing thats pretty clear is that Quist lost a ton of the kind of suburban voters that you're talking about. He ran 20 points behind Bullard in the county that holds Billings and its suburbs. To have a chance in Montana, a candidate has to run up huge margins in urban areas and Quist couldn't do it.

This is true, and maybe where a better candidate could have made the difference. Even in a state like Montana, the majority of the population is in urban areas by the Census definition (which counts suburbs as part of urban areas). Actually, there are only four states that don't have a majority of their population in urban areas, and surprisingly they're all east of the Mississippi (ME, VT, WV, MS).

It's admittedly a tough tightrope to walk. There's enough rural voters in Montana that you have to hold down the margins at least a little, without costing yourself votes in the cities.

 

[Blader]

Whether or not you don't like the word, it still applies. Also, assuming that every single one of these people is a "gun nut" that only votes on gun issues is not a good idea. There's a solid chunk that will (and my guess is that number is close to Trump's base number), but there are votes out there to be had from those who aren't "gun nuts."

It's not about liking or not liking the word, it's that I don't understand what it means. "Messaging" seems to be used as a catch all for literally anything now. What is a Dem message that frames their gun platform as background checks only that doesn't fall prey into all the previous reasons why that message has failed to break through? I really don't know, and frankly don't believe there really is one, which is counterarguments of "they just need to message better" don't make any sense to me.

I'm honestly for dropping the issue entirely, but I know that won't happen.

But this is what I'm talking about: there is no dropping the issue. How does that even work? Either you don't talk about it and your opponent, the GOP, the NRA, et al. define you as wanting to take peoples guns away; or you talk honestly about how you just want background checks, and your opponent, the GOP, the NRA, et al. define you as wanting to take peoples guns away; or you lie, say you're as pro-gun as anybody, which I feel that most pro-gun voters will see through immediately. Maybe you can recruit a candidate somewhere with a long pro-gun voting record, but in a race between that D and a generic R, the NRA is going to side with the R.

Right, but he outperformed Clinton by a lot. He was clearly a good candidate, the inherent challenges of that particular election were just too much for even that to overcome. In a better political environment that kind of performance translates to wins.

I agree, I'm just saying that we can't necessarily use Kander as an example of how to run a reasonable pro-gun-ish Dem in a red state when he still ended up losing. If he runs the same kind of campaign next time and manages to win, then hey, we've got a successful use case here.

 

[Kevinroc]

Speaking of healthcare, Politico did a follow-up to their article about the writing of the Senate's Trumpcare bill.

GOP turns gloomy over Obamacare repeal

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/25/gop-obamacare-repeal-senate-recess-gloom-238839

The scoring of the House bill (and how well it is polling) have really put a fright into the Senate. But Trumpcare isn't dead yet.

 

[fredrancour]

And it shouldn't, because that's a sure fire way to depress minority turnout.

The problem is that literally any kind of regulation - even something like background checks - on guns is seen as anti-gun.

Heck, even legalizing research on gun violence is seen as anti gun

 

[nature boy]

OH SHIT HILLARY STILL COUGHING

Boehner: Trump’s term ‘disaster,’ aside from foreign affairs

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former House Speaker John Boehner says that aside from international affairs and foreign policy, President Donald Trump’s time in office has so far been a “complete disaster.”

Speaking at an energy conference Thursday in Houston, Boehner praised Trump for his approach abroad and his aggressiveness in fighting Islamic State militants, according to the energy publication Rigzone.

“Everything else he’s done (in office) has been a complete disaster,” the Ohio Republican said, according to the publication. “He’s still learning how to be president.”

Boehner said he’s been friends with Trump for 15 years, but still has a hard time envisioning him as president. He also said Trump shouldn’t be allowed to Tweet overnight.

David Schnittger, a spokesman for Boehner, confirmed the comments on Friday.

According to Rigzone, Boehner said that the Republican tax reform effort “is just a bunch of happy talk” and that the border adjustment tax — a major priority for Boehner’s successor, Speaker Paul Ryan — is “deader than a doornail.” He said he was more optimistic about tax reform earlier in the year, but “now my odds are 60/40.”

Earlier this year, Boehner said he was pessimistic about another congressional Republican priority — repealing and replacing former President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act.

Boehner said that while Republicans would fix some problems of Obama’s law, repeal and replacement is “not going to happen.”

He added, “Republicans never ever agree on health care.”

The GOP-led House narrowly passed a bill earlier this month. The Senate has struggled to produce legislation that all in the GOP can back.

On investigations into Russia, Boehner told the Texas forum that “they need to get to the bottom of this” but said Democratic talk of impeachment is the best way to rile up Trump supporters.

Boehner made it clear he’s happier now that he’s left Capitol Hill.

“I wake up every day, drink my morning coffee and say, ‘Hallelujah, hallelujah, hallelujah,’” he said, according to Rigzone.

From Orange to Orange with love

 

[Ernest]

In case anyone forgot:

I'd like to see a percentage chart, only because that top 1% pays far more taxes in $ than the others do.

 

[studyguy]

There's no dropping gun control because we don't live in a reality where Dem candidates aren't inexorably tied to historical Democrat platforms for gun control as a whole. Voters aren't that stupid to believe giving a democrat a gun to shoot on camera means the party as a whole has changed.

You literally had reports of MT voters saying a vote for Quist is a vote for Pelosi. The party exists outside of the local candidate and voters are fucking aware of that.

 

[Plinko]

It's not about liking or not liking the word, it's that I don't understand what it means. "Messaging" seems to be used as a catch all for literally anything now. What is a Dem message that frames their gun platform as background checks only that doesn't fall prey into all the previous reasons why that message has failed to break through? I really don't know, and frankly don't believe there really is one, which is counterarguments of "they just need to message better" don't make any sense to me.

When I speak of messaging, I am mainly referring to advertising during campaigns. I feel like democrats have just done a terrible job outside of a few instances (Obama, Kander, etc.). On the local levels, they just seem outclassed when it comes to influencing voters with advertisements. They seem afraid to play on the fears of voters like the GOP does, and there are loads of things voters should be scared of when it comes to GOP rule. Hillary's entire campaign from the slogan to the commercials targeting Trump was a complete dumpster fire.

I don't have many issues with the actual words coming from the candidates themselves (outside of my belief they are not finding the right people to run in rural areas). I just think the DNC and those responsible for properly getting these messages to the voters have done an awful job over the past decade in comparison to the right-wingers. Yes, right-wing media plays a major role in that, but you can't just sit back and say, "But right-wing media!!!!" You have to actually do something to overcome it or you're screwed.

 

[kirblar]

Healthcare healthcare healthcare

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/868137900168417280




healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare healthcare

Duh. You don't need to campaign on Trump or Russia, the media will do that for you.

 

[whyamihere]

Democrats should be red and Republicans should be blue.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Why don't we just tell GOP voters that we're going to not ban guns but then do it anyway? Seems to work well for the GOP.

 

[Plinko]

Democrats should be red and Republicans should be blue.

All joking aside, isn't that what it used to be until like the 1980s?

 

[Veritigo_X]

Democrats should be red and Republicans should be blue.

This should be our 2018 platform.

 

[studyguy]

Why don't we just tell GOP voters that we're going to not ban guns but then do it anyway? Seems to work well for the GOP.

Why don't we just bodyslam some Brietbart reporters?

 

[Blader]

When I speak of messaging, I am mainly referring to advertising during campaigns. I feel like democrats have just done a terrible job outside of a few instances (Obama, Kander, etc.). On the local levels, they just seem outclassed when it comes to influencing voters with advertisements. They seem afraid to play on the fears of voters like the GOP does, and there are loads of things voters should be scared of when it comes to GOP rule. Hillary's entire campaign from the slogan to the commercials targeting Trump was a complete dumpster fire.

But...wasn't Hillary's campaign too overly focused on being anti-Trump, and how a President Trump should scare the shit out of you? She cut her own Daisy ad!

All joking aside, isn't that what it used to be until like the 1980s?

mostly, although that was just the color associated with the party name. "Red states" and "blue states" didn't enter into the lexicon until 2000.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Democrats should be red and Republicans should be blue.

I know. It's completely backwards and basically an accident. There was no real set convention, then the 2000 election the networks just all happened to use the same color scheme, and the whole aftermath of that election led to the "red states/blue states" thing which has stuck.

 

[Plumbob]

Democrats should be red and Republicans should be blue.

edgy as a worker's sickle

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Why don't we just bodyslam some Brietbart reporters?

Now we're cooking.

 

[Basileus777]

Why don't we just bodyslam some Brietbart reporters?

This should be Dwayne Johnson's stump speech.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Why don't we just bodyslam some Brietbart reporters?

I would be okay with this. It's only fair.

 

[Blader]

I know. It's completely backwards and basically an accident. There was no real set convention, then the 2000 election the networks just all happened to use the same color scheme, and the whole aftermath of that election led to the "red states/blue states" thing which has stuck.

They used to alternate the colors for every election, and it just happened to land on red for the GOP and blue for the Dems in 2000. And because coverage of that election lasted so long, and those maps were on TV all the time, red states as being Republican and blue states as being Democratic stuck.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Do Breitbart reporters ever even try to talk with Democrat reps?

 

[Pixieking]

Or read any GAF thread that mentions Hillary.

Yeah, sooner or later the shit gets flung. Fair enough for criticising some questionable actions, but some of the stuff that gets written about Hillary isn't fit to type about any human being.

This should be Dwayne Johnson's stump speech.

People say they don't want The Rock to run, and then someone writes this. It's like, yeah, I know it's bad, but I'd pay good money to see him bodyslam Breitbart reporters and nazis.

I wonder if he and Chris Evans are pals? The sheer joy of seeing The Rock with a VP pick of Captain America! Damn.

 

[Box of Kittens]

All joking aside, isn't that what it used to be until like the 1980s?

As far as I can tell it wasn't consistent until 1996 or so. In 1992, NBC used red for Clinton and blue for Bush, while ABC/CBS used the opposite. I think ABC used blue and yellow back in '76 on the grounds that it would make for a good contrast regardless of whether the TV was color or black and white.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Democrats should be red and Republicans should be blue.

I dunno, Republicans should be red because of their soviet ties.

 

[whyamihere]

As far as I can tell it wasn't consistent until 1996 or so. In 1992, NBC used red for Clinton and blue for Bush, while ABC/CBS used the opposite. I think ABC used blue and yellow back in '76 on the grounds that it would make for a good contrast regardless of whether the TV was color or black and white.

this.

 

[Teggy]

Damn. The Queen visited some of the victims of the Manchester bombing in the hospital.

What was Hillary doing in England?

Spoiler

No joke, that was my first thought when I read it. Then I thought a little more.

 

[Pixieking]

What was Hillary doing in England?

Spoiler

No joke, that was my first thought when I read it. Then I thought a little more.

Not going to lie, I thought the same thing (and I'm British).

 

[exmachina64]

What was Hillary doing in England?

Illuminati meeting.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Hillary had another sad event to get to last week. One of my colleagues lost his wife, and she was Hillary's roommate in law school. So she came and spoke at the service before the funeral.

 

[TestOfTide]

Beohner knows firsthand how hard it is to GOP to agree on anything other than opposing democrats. Dude was inches away from getting a grand bargain with Obama until the HFC fucked him over.

Beohner is the best example to use when people call politics "theatre". As a politician he would rail against the democrats but behind closed doors he was actually friends with Obama.

 

[Atenhaus]

Don't read posts without your glasses on, children.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

CNN reporting right now that James Comes KNEW the document that influenced the way he handled the Clinton investigation was fake

That he didn't disclose that to congress; and he was afraid the fake would leak out and influence the election and he thought the Russians would degrade confidence in the Clinton email investigation.

The story is completely bizarre. Something's missing here.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Hillary had another sad event to get to last week. One of my colleagues lost his wife, and she was Hillary's roommate in law school. So she came and spoke at the service before the funeral.

Ole Miss, right? My girlfriend went to school there at the Croft Institute and was super disappointed she missed it. People she knew got to meet Hillary.

 

[TestOfTide]

Ryan's is only +5?

AARP going to go in HARD on him.

What is the makeup of Ryan's district? How suburban/rural is it? How white is it? How old on average is it?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Monkey Paw 2018 is we kick out Ryan, but don't take the House

 

[kirblar]

CNN reporting right now that James Comes KNEW the document that influenced the way he handled the Clinton investigation was fake

That he didn't disclose that to congress; and he was afraid the fake would leak out and influence the election and he thought the Russians would degrade confidence in the Clinton email investigation.

The story is completely bizarre. Something's missing here.

See: DNC emails.

If it were to leak, it wouldn't matter that it was fake. The Russia/Wikileaks fake news network would make sure it got propped up.

 

[TestOfTide]

CNN reporting right now that James Comes KNEW the document that influenced the way he handled the Clinton investigation was fake

That he didn't disclose that to congress; and he was afraid the fake would leak out and influence the election and he thought the Russians would degrade confidence in the Clinton email investigation.

The story is completely bizarre. Something's missing here.

It's two factors:

- Comey knew that if was too open about calling out the anti-Hillary bullshit, he would lose his job
- Comey never liked Clinton. That doesn't mean he liked Trump, and it doesn't mean he would be willing to pursue a losing case against her, but he's not gonna risk his own job just to help someone he doesn't even like

Also, this further proves my theory that Comey knew if he didn't send that October letter to congress, shit would have leaked anyway.

 

[Pixieking]

Ole Miss, right? My girlfriend went to school there at the Croft Institute and was super disappointed she missed it. People she knew got to meet Hillary.

My inner Hillary fanboy would just love to meet her. Genuinely don't think much of meeting my heroes, but she's in the handful of people whom I'd dearly love to meet.

(The list is mostly just Hillary and Sir David Attenborough, and did include Sir Christopher Lee. )