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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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J

jtb

Banned
Ugh, those LBJ re-runs ads were embarrassing. Nobody knows what the fuck you're talking about. You're literally just trying to score points with a small subset of the political press.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
jtb said:
Ugh, those LBJ re-runs ads were embarrassing. Nobody knows what the fuck you're talking about. You're literally just trying to score points with a small subset of the political press.
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Cringe-worthy stuff designed to make cable news anchors happy and no one else cared.
 
J

jtb

Banned
also, it's too bad that Becerra resigned because he would have made an excellent House Speaker, imo. love Pelosi, but she will be 78 by the time the election rolls around.

Macho Madness said:
Cringe-worthy stuff designed to make cable news anchors happy and no one else cared.
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Literally the only thing that went through my brain while watching the 'Confessions of a Republican' rehash was: Holy shit, Kent Wallace!?!

Then I watched the KKK Frontline sketch again.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
jtb said:
Ugh, those LBJ re-runs ads were embarrassing. Nobody knows what the fuck you're talking about. You're literally just trying to score points with a small subset of the political press.
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I call it "The Mook Effect."
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Speaking of Mook, I know Shattered is just dumb gossip but I also am very excited for be returned to the library.

Also, startling revelation: libraries in cities with 50k or more people are substantially nicer than libraries in towns with like 8 people.

my hometown library actually punches above its weight but it's still sort of amazing to go into a library with two floors, unprecedented amazement
 
F

Finalizer

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Speaking of hilarious backfires, Democrats have a generic ballot lead of 50-36 in North Carolina legislative elections according to Civitas (an R pollster). Trump has a 42-53 approval/disapproval in the state, compared to Governor Roy Cooper with a 58/25 approval spread.

If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling in NC vs. Covington, they'll hold legislative elections under new maps this November, so Democrats could actually stand to gain quite a bit.
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As much as I want it, I don't have much hope for the do-over at the end of the year. That said, I'll be happy if dems just stay fired up for the next elections regardless of when.

Also i'm out of the loop on the UK situation, why have the conservatives faltered in the polls? Thought this election was supposed to be a sure thing for them.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Finalizer said:
As much as I want it, I don't have much hope for the do-over at the end of the year. That said, I'll be happy if dems just stay fired up for the next elections regardless of when.

Also i'm out of the loop on the UK situation, why have the conservatives faltered in the polls? Thought this election was supposed to be a sure thing for them.
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Labour manifesto was very popular, Tory manifesto was very unpopular, May sucks. There might be more but that's what I've picked up on.
 
J

jtb

Banned
In the end, I found Shattered to be a pretty decent read. A pretty even-handed look at the campaign's strenghts and failures - and was pretty transparent about hindsight bias. Most of it is common knowledge anyways, since it pulls heavily from existing reporting and the Wikileaks email dumps.

The problem with the book is, of course, no one actually reads it and just pulls out the "10 things you WON'T BELIEVE" bullshit gossip from Politico (Axios now, I suppose) without any regard for context.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Finalizer said:
As much as I want it, I don't have much hope for the do-over at the end of the year. That said, I'll be happy if dems just stay fired up for the next elections regardless of when.
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Yeah, if those numbers held up for 2018 we'd be fine, but it's best to strike when the iron's hot.

It would be very encouraging if this November we held the Virginia governor's seat, won New Jersey's, and picked up seats in Virginia and North Carolina. Outright flipping those chambers (VA House of Delegates, NC House/Senate, we already hold NJ legislature) seems unlikely, but who knows where we'll be at in November.
 
B

Blader

Member
jtb said:
Ugh, those LBJ re-runs ads were embarrassing. Nobody knows what the fuck you're talking about. You're literally just trying to score points with a small subset of the political press.
Click to expand...

I think the message of the ad was clear to literally anyone. It didn't require any familiarity with the original Daisy ad, and it's not as if DONALD TRUMP CANNOT BE TRUSTED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS wasn't a constant talking point among both Dems and Republicans.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Good WSJ article on the decline of rural areas and the rise of cities: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1380942
Bonen no Max'd said:
Speaking of Mook, I know Shattered is just dumb gossip but I also am very excited for be returned to the library.

Also, startling revelation: libraries in cities with 50k or more people are substantially nicer than libraries in towns with like 8 people.

my hometown library actually punches above its weight but it's still sort of amazing to go into a library with two floors, unprecedented amazement
Click to expand...
There's a GoT .gif for this but it'd be spoilery :(
 
J

jtb

Banned
Blader said:
I think the message of the ad was clear to literally anyone. It didn't require any familiarity with the original Daisy ad, and it's not as if DONALD TRUMP CANNOT BE TRUSTED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS wasn't a constant talking point among both Dems and Republicans.
Click to expand...

Nuclear apocalypse was a potent, mobilizing political issue in 1964. Nobody credibly believed (even if they should have) that Donald Trump would start a nuclear war in 2016.

Without the context of the ads they were homage to, they're terrible ads. With context, they're embarrassing pastiche.

whyamihere said:
NYMag did a big interview/piece on Hillary post-election.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...nton-life-after-election.html?mid=nymag_press

Not going to grab any quotes. It's interesting, even if you'd wish her to go away.
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Traister is great.

Love this, even if it's going to get the usual suspects all hot and bothered again:
But was she right that she couldn't have expressed her anger in that debate? There are plenty of people who yearned for Clinton to get mad; during the campaign, an imagined litany of Clinton's fury entitled ”Let Me Remind You Fuckers Who I Am" went viral. ”Oh, I am [pissed]," she says. But as a woman in public life, ”you can't be angry for yourself. You just can't. You can be indignant, you can be annoyed, you can be frustrated, but you can't be angry ... I don't think anger's a strategy."

You mean it's not a strategy for you, I clarify. ”For me, yeah." She pauses. ”But I don't think it's a good strategy for most people."

But this was an election that was, in many ways, about anger. And Trump and Sanders capitalized on that.

”Yes." Clinton nods. ”And I beat both of them."
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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Well, got more votes. Beat implies a victory.

But the general point isn't wrong.
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I think the greatest irony is that the chorus of far left morons who claim the DNC stole the election from Bernie, superdelegates rigged it, etc. etc. are the same ones who turn on Hillary just as fast for losing the Electoral College while winning the popular vote by a very comfortable margin.

I'm not even saying that Hillary was a good candidate who never made any mistakes, I just think you can balance that critique with an understanding that our political structure is massively fucked up and inherently favors Republicans. For all the whining about establishment Democrats, they were swimming upstream as well. The fact that this has happened twice in 16 years in such a way that completely dicks over the progressive movement, and arguably mankind for generations (think of what Gore's priorities would have been on climate change versus Bush's) should prove that.

And when people elevates the DNC's (many) problems over the fact that Trump was installed as a Russian puppet thanks entirely to an archaic electoral system, I question that person's motivations.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Aaron Strife said:
This could be a hilarious backfire.

Speaking of hilarious backfires, Democrats have a generic ballot lead of 50-36 in North Carolina legislative elections according to Civitas (an R pollster). Trump has a 42-53 approval/disapproval in the state, compared to Governor Roy Cooper with a 58/25 approval spread.

If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling in NC vs. Covington, they'll hold legislative elections under new maps this November, so Democrats could actually stand to gain quite a bit.
Click to expand...

I hope DNCC is recruiting and vetting canidates NOW. This is going to be a hell of an opportunity nationwide next year.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Suikoguy said:
I hope DNCC is recruiting and vetting canidates NOW. This is going to be a hell of an opportunity nationwide next year.
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We're doing great in Virginia in terms of numbers, though I don't know if the candidates are particularly good - for state legislative races though I find that doesn't seem to matter as much unless they're complete trainwrecks.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...n-surge-of-democrats-for-virginia-house-races

Democratic candidates have committed to running in 88 of 100 districts as of midweek, according to House Democratic caucus spokeswoman Katie Baker. They are contesting 54 of 66 GOP-held seats, she said. Compare that with 2015, when they fielded candidates in 56 districts and contested only 28 of 67 GOP-held seats, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan political tracker.
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Important to point out that if Democrats won every Clinton seat, they would have the House majority in Virginia by exactly 1 seat (51-49 split). That being said:

Quentin Kidd, a political science professor at Christopher Newport University, said Democrats could take eight or 10 seats. But he expected the odds of getting many more than that are quite low.

"Incumbency advantage is a real thing," said Kidd, who has been observing Virginia politics for almost 25 years.
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It'll be tough.
 
D

dramatis

Member
To be sure, Trump got plenty of negative coverage in the press as well, but, during the campaign at least, the negative stories didn’t seem to stick to him with the same adhesion. And even now, as investigations of his administration’s connections to Russia splash across front pages, the Times has launched a new feature, a weekly call to readers to “Say something nice” about him. I ask Clinton if she’s seen it. “I did!” she says with a wide smile, taking a beat. “I never saw them do that for me.”
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I ask her about the report that Bush had said of the speech, “That was some weird shit,” and her eyes light up. “Put it in your article,” she says. “They tried to walk back from it, but …” Did she hear it herself? I ask. She raises her eyebrows and grins.
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Early in the campaign, Clinton spoke to historians, psychologists, and others who’d examined gender bias about what she should expect. “They were very clear that this was going to be an uphill battle,” she says. Particularly dire were the warnings from Sheryl Sandberg, the Facebook COO whose 2013 book Lean In had become a flash point in discussions around feminism, class, capitalism, and the roadblocks that remain for ambitious women. “The takeaway from Lean In,” says Clinton, “is that there is a stark difference between men and women when it comes to success and likability. So the more successful a man is, the more likable he is. The more successful a woman is, the less likable she is. And it’s across every sector of society.”
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Pretty neat article.
 
H

Hooligan69

Member
Macho Madness said:
No. It's stupid. And it ignores communities of color that have been asking for gun control. Voters aren't stupid. If gun control decides your vote, you're probably not picking the Democrat no matter what they say. Same with a lot of other things. You've got to find a base that agrees with you instead of trying this failed bullshit Clintonite garbage that kirblar keeps proposing where you run Republican-lites. It's not going to work. It might work short term and get you the house for a term or two but it's not a long term winning coalition that you can rely on time after time.
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In my past experience and conversations with fellow Coloradans, so many are all about a liberal/progressive/dem candidate and everything he/she is about, but if they mention gun control, they're out; even if they agree with that person on 90% of everything else.

This is why I think voters are mostly stupid, and get hung up on 1 or 2 (or both) hot button topics: abortion and gun control, tossing most other things by the wayside.

Though I think in 2018, we'll see a more "woke" electorate, as all the fuckery of the last 4 months have shone a light on so many other issues people are paying more attention to. Just my humble 2¢, naive as it may be.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Hooligan69 said:
In my past experience and conversations with fellow Coloradans, so many are all about a liberal/progressive/dem candidate and everything he/she is about, but if they mention gun control, they're out; even if they agree with that person on 90% of everything else.

This is why I think voters are mostly stupid, and get hung up on 1 or 2 (or both) hot button topics: abortion and gun control, tossing most other things by the wayside.

Though I think in 2018, we'll see a more "woke" electorate, as all the fuckery of the last 4 months have shone a light on so many other issues people are paying more attention to. Just my humble 2¢, naive as it may be.
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Unfortunately I doubt the 2018 "wokeness" lasts. It'll last just as long as the moment we get a Democratic president, then they'll tune out again because they'll assume everything is going to be sunshine and farts and get pissed off when PresiDem gets blocked on something.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
How many people are starting to actually think Trump has dementia at this point because damn if it isn't seeming more and more likely.
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I was generally of the mindset he was just a scatterbrained, stupid, old man, but wasn't really mentally sick, at least not with dementia.

But that video from yesterday was pretty scary. That was... wow. He pretty clearly had no idea where he was and was totally lost.
 
K

Kevinroc

Member
Barzul said:
What's this about? The case.
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This is the Cost Sharing Reductions (CSRs) that the Federal Government pays to help lower income Americans buy Health Insurance. Most spending in the ACA is mandatory, which means Congress doesn't need to appropriate it in a spending bill every year. Republicans argued that CSRs required Congressional approval and sued over it. A federal judge agreed with them, but suspended the order while the case was appealed.

That was during the Obama administration. Today, the Trump administration has been paying out the CSRs on a month by month basis. Insurers aren't exactly pleased with this. And Trump has mentioned ending paying the CSRs. But that would make insurers either leave the market places or cause them to raise their rates by a not so small amount (about 20% or so).

Not wanting to actually get blamed for insurers leaving or raising their rates, the Trump administration has continued to ask for delays on their decision to continue paying the CSRs or not. But insurers have to set their rates for 2018 at some point (and that point is not so far off at this point).

The Trump administration is essentially trying to have their cake and eat it too. They believe they would have plausible deniability if insurers left or raised their rates because they never ACTUALLY said they wouldn't pay the CSRs. (Polling indicates they very much would be blamed.)
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Spoiled Milk said:
And Adrianople, too!
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Constantinople belongs to the Romans DEUS ADIUTA ROMANIS

If anyone's interested, here's some short profiles of the NJ governor's race candidates. Murphy obviously is the big frontrunner.

Phil Murphy
Former ambassador to Germany, Democrat

For over a year, Mr. Murphy has worked — and spent — his way into a commanding position. He is the first nonincumbent candidate in modern history to win all 21 county line endorsements and every major union endorsement; he touts a campaign staff that is a who’s who of New Jersey politics; and he has a fund-raising operation fueled by $15 million of the candidate’s own funds that is more than double the combined war chest of the other candidates.

But if he has any serious vulnerability, aside from having Goldman Sachs as a 23-year entry on his résumé, it might be having everything seemingly fall into place. Last year, Mr. Murphy found himself as the last man standing in an anticipated epic primary that never was, when the Steves — Steven Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, and Stephen M. Sweeney, the State Senate president — dropped out. Yet Mr. Murphy has remained relentless on the campaign trail, holding caffeinated town hall meetings that feature air guitars, arm whips and even the occasional jacket toss.

Look for him to battle the inevitability narrative by pursuing a rigorous campaign schedule. And expect any negative or critical campaigning from the Murphy camp to focus on Republicans and President Trump, rather than draw himself into a battle with his Democratic rivals.


Jim Johnson
Former under secretary of the Treasury, Democrat

A cerebral, self-proclaimed policy wonk in a state known for colorful politicians, Mr. Johnson wants to be seen as the energized “outsider” candidate, raging (politely) against the machine. His campaign is a full-frontal assault on the institutionalized, local power-broker world of Jersey politics. The fact that Mr. Murphy has locked down all 21 county lines is evidence, in Mr. Johnson’s view, of the state’s political problems. His venting is done through a professorial approach in his stump speech, focused on ethics reform, which he believes would help bring about vast change in Trenton (think “drain the swamp” of New Jersey).

He views the millions of people newly engaged after the 2016 election as uncounted, unpolled first-time voters he can build a base around. Also, as the only African-American candidate in the race, Mr. Johnson expects some support from blacks in Essex and Union Counties.

He benefited from an early surge in fund-raising: He was the first to qualify for matching public funds, although a large percentage of his money came from New York donors. Look for him to also draw voters not entirely sold on Mr. Murphy.


John Wisniewski
State assemblyman for 19 years, Democrat

Political pundits hunting for a proxy battle for the soul of the Democratic Party thought they had found it in New Jersey: Mr. Murphy, a Clinton supporter and donor, running against Mr. Wisniewski, the chairman of the Bernie Sanders campaign in New Jersey.

Mr. Wisniewski was clearly hoping for that, too. But as 2016 proved, pundits are often wrong, and Mr. Wisniewski hasn’t seen the surge in support from the progressive wing in New Jersey, at least so far in early polling, though an increase in small-dollar fund-raising hints at a possible groundswell.

He’s running largely on the Sanders platform — single-payer health care and tuition-free college — sprinkled with some local spicing, notably Bridgegate (he was the driving force behind the Legislature’s investigation into the scandal) and Goldman Sachs (constant allusions to Mr. Murphy’s former employer). He will look to marshal the state’s progressive faction — though Mr. Sanders lost to Hillary Clinton in the state primary by a factor of 2 to 1 — and to trade in some of his Bridgegate good will among Democrats.


Ray Lesniak
State senator for 39 years, Democrat

Nearly four decades in New Jersey politics would steel the spine of any politician. But Mr. Lesniak waffled for weeks about jumping into the governor’s race, at one point even declaring he was out, before filing the required paperwork.

He has acknowledged that it will be an “uphill battle,” and while he has long been the champion of progressive causes in the state, his late entry ceded some of that public courting to Mr. Wisniewski. The veteran state legislator — his 38 years in the State Capitol give him one of the longest tenures in state history — claims to have a base of support among environmentalists, same-sex marriage activists and animal rights groups, although his polling is dismal, and he had to donate about $270,000 of his own money to qualify for the debates.

Mr. Lesniak is running an exceptionally slimmed down, go it alone campaign; he proudly boasts that he never takes a prepared speech to an event.


Kim Guadagno
Lieutenant governor of New Jersey, Republican

Ms. Guadagno is running for the job she has effectively done for more than 500 days. That’s about how long Mr. Christie has been out of the state, and when the governor is gone, state law declares that Ms. Guadagno, the lieutenant governor, is acting governor.

It should be a compelling case to build a campaign on, but Ms. Guadagno faces a bit of a catch-22: Mr. Christie’s approval ratings are among the lowest in New Jersey history, so running as a continuation candidate or on the governor’s record wouldn’t endear her to many voters. She has danced delicately, distancing herself from her unpopular boss, while also trying not to completely discard him because he remains relatively well liked by a chunk of Republicans.

Her official announcement came a little late, but her campaign has been long anticipated; she was the seeming heir apparent, and had Mr. Christie’s presidential plans turned out differently, she would be running as the appointed incumbent. Despite distancing herself from the governor, look for Ms. Guadagno to focus on “Christie country” in the state, with a heavy focus on Republican strongholds in the northern and western parts of the state — Morris, Sussex and Warren Counties — as well as Ocean and Monmouth Counties along the shore.


Jack Ciattarelli
State assemblyman for five years, Republican

He was the first established elected Republican to enter the race, last September. But Mr. Ciattarelli’s early campaign rhetoric echoes some Democrats: a constant chiding of Mr. Christie.

Throughout his recent tenure in the Legislature, Mr. Ciattarelli has been critical of the governor, and he is now trying to tie Ms. Guadagno to the low approval ratings of the Christie administration. Mr. Ciattarelli has called the lieutenant governor “loyal to a fault” and refers to the Statehouse as the “Guadagno-Christie administration.”

He surprised many by winning seven county endorsements, including the competitive Middlesex line, but his support came from counties with relatively modest numbers of registered Republicans. For him to really make a dent in Ms. Guadagno’s lead in the polls, he’ll have to take his PowerPoint-backed town hall meetings and venture into “Christie country.”
Click to expand...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...w-jersey-governor-profiles.html?smid=fb-share
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
kirblar said:
God bless Kiwis.

Of course he has Dementia. That's why his attention span is fucked.
Click to expand...

I think it's more accurate to say it has made his already short attention span even worse.
 
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