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[Ignatz Mouse]

What is the makeup of Ryan's district? How suburban/rural is it? How white is it? How old on average is it?

I don't know many specifics, but the area overall is *almost* a suburb of Chicago. Too far to really be one, but there's a commuter rail to there, and it undoubtedly gets affected by Chicago's gravity.

It's mostly rural but probably acts like more of a suburb due to that.

Lots of Chicago ex-pats, summer homes, and such as well.

I'm sure lots of people there define themselves in contrast with Illinois/Chicago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin's_1st_congressional_district

 

[whyamihere]

Theresa May is such an idiot.

(blue = Tories, red = Labour, orange = LibDem, yellow = SNP, purple = UKIP, green = Obvious)

 

[jmdajr]

CNN reporting right now that James Comes KNEW the document that influenced the way he handled the Clinton investigation was fake

That he didn't disclose that to congress; and he was afraid the fake would leak out and influence the election and he thought the Russians would degrade confidence in the Clinton email investigation.

The story is completely bizarre. Something's missing here.

what document

 

[Hindl]

OH SHIT HILLARY STILL COUGHING



From Orange to Orange with love

Dude got out at the perfect time

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Theresa May is such an idiot.

(blue = Tories, red = Labour, orange = LibDem, yellow = SNP, purple = UKIP, green = Obvious)

Looks like she lost some to Labour but consolidated UKIP. They still have complete control of Parliament.

 

[The Technomancer]

I don't know many specifics, but the area overall is *almost* a suburb of Chicago. Too far to really be one, but there's a commuter rail to there, and it undoubtedly gets affected by Chicago's gravity.

It's mostly rural but probably acts like more of a suburb due to that.

Lots of Chicago ex-pats, summer homes, and such as well.

I'm sure lots of people there define themselves in contrast with Illinois/Chicago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin's_1st_congressional_district

I grew up there actually. Parents still live there. Strong Milwaukee influence as well. It was a manufacturing area before the 90s but has reasonably successfully made the transition to basically a big combo suburb, college town and tourist stopover, largely thanks to the lakefront. The two cities proper, Kenosha and Racine, are reasonably diverse (my high school had a lot of black kids) but there are a ton of small periphery "villages" that are less so. Honestly I was shocked at how close Kenosha county was considering in my mind it was pretty safe blue (last red presidential result was '72, and it hasn't exactly been close since then) A lot of us like to blame Waukesha for Ryan, and my parents neighborhood was soley Clinton and Feingold signs.

 

[dramatis]

Democrats should be red and Republicans should be blue.

My favorite color is blue so no

 

[Slizeezyc]

Looks like she lost some to Labour but consolidated UKIP. They still have complete control of Parliament.

A near 10-percent spike in a month is a bad look regardless.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ryan's is only +5?

AARP going to go in HARD on him.

Why do people think that AARP being against something will change how old people vote?

AARP supported Obamacare, it didn't help Dems.

 

[Effect]

So it's Friday. Anyone hinting something might be dropping this evening?

 

[Wilsongt]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxn...-alleging-sanders-was-robbed-in-2016.amp.html

As Trump administration controversies command media attention, a little-noticed set of lawsuits against the Democratic Party continues to play out in the courts – including one claiming coordination with the Clinton campaign against Bernie Sanders amounted to election fraud.

The case being heard in a Florida courtroom dates back to last summer, when the Democrats were thrown into turmoil following the leak of documents that appeared to show some DNC officials sought to undermine Sanders in the party primary. Jared Beck, a Harvard law expert, shortly afterward filed a class-action lawsuit on behalf of residents of 45 states against the DNC and former chairwomen Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

The DNC has been trying for months to have the case dismissed, and scored a temporary victory last year when it was decided the plaintiffs had improperly filed paperwork.

Beck has been fighting the DNC every step of the way, and is demanding the party repay individuals and Sanders supporters for contributions made during the election, alleging misappropriation of funds.

“If we can’t trust the two political parties to run an election in a fair manner, who can we trust?” Beck told Fox News.

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

 

[Spoiled Milk]

A near 10-percent spike in a month is a bad look regardless.

She's still ten points up on Labour and the third parties are collapsing, except SNP. Seems enviable to not have a tiger in your closet anymore and still have a ten point advantage over the next closest party.

 

[Culex]

So it's Friday. Anyone hinting something might be dropping this evening?

Feels like the Syrian air base missle strike: lots of boom, little effect.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Monkey Paw 2018 is we kick out Ryan, but don't take the House

I mean if it was like a 218-217 affair there'd at least be some entertainment to come out of the utter madness. Ryan doesn't have an obvious successor.

Probably better that we just win the chamber though.

Saw a poll that has Heitkamp up 20 in approval in North Dakota, Manchin up 40 in West Virginia. Hardly a fan of either of those two, but every seat that adds up to 51 is worth it.

Unless we just go into full fanfic territory and we knock off Cruz or something, winning the House and tying the Senate would be a dream come true, even if Pence makes that a Senate majority. Collins would have to take a lot of hard votes...

 

[Pixieking]

AHCA related Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/868131740937801728

Andy Slavitt‏Verified account @ASlavitt

The dam is breaking agains Trumpcare.

Will relay a week's worth of conversations shortly.

Follow along. 1

Too much to quote/paste, but worth reading.

 

[Slizeezyc]

She's still ten points up on Labour and the third parties are collapsing, except SNP. Seems enviable to not have a tiger in your closet anymore and still have a ten point advantage over the next closest party.

Yeah I'm not saying her inherent advantages make it not matter so much, it's just self-inflicted wounds is all -- it's Trump-y.

 

[TestOfTide]

I don't know many specifics, but the area overall is *almost* a suburb of Chicago. Too far to really be one, but there's a commuter rail to there, and it undoubtedly gets affected by Chicago's gravity.

It's mostly rural but probably acts like more of a suburb due to that.

Lots of Chicago ex-pats, summer homes, and such as well.

I'm sure lots of people there define themselves in contrast with Illinois/Chicago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin's_1st_congressional_district

Looking at the presidential vote, it actually voted for Obama in 2008. Perhaps if Paul Ryan can be tied to Trump successfully the antiTrump backlash could take his seat.

 

[jtb]

Didn't Paul Ryan's district vote for Obama in 08? Unseating him is definitely feasible, particularly given his highly public role. (Not sure how its been redistricted since then).

And would be a huge win, obviously. Foley/Daschle, etc.

Regardless, as we saw in 06 --> 08, many of these near misses in special elections can be turned into wins in 18. And many of the near misses can be consolidated into wins in 2020.

The real worry will be that Dems take the map/environment for granted, but I have a hard time seeing that happening right now. The base is mobilized and motivated at basically unprecedented levels.

edit: Ha, just got beat to the punch on the Obama/Ryan 08 split

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I grew up there actually. Parents still live there. Strong Milwaukee influence as well. It was a manufacturing area before the 90s but has reasonably successfully made the transition to basically a big combo suburb, college town and tourist stopover, largely thanks to the lakefront. The two cities proper, Kenosha and Racine, are reasonably diverse (my high school had a lot of black kids) but there are a ton of small periphery "villages" that are less so. Honestly I was shocked at how close Kenosha county was considering in my mind it was pretty safe blue (last red presidential result was '72, and it hasn't exactly been close since then) A lot of us like to blame Waukesha for Ryan, and my parents neighborhood was soley Clinton and Feingold signs.

Yeah, it basically seems like a residential-ish area that isn't the big cities on either side.

I like the area a lot from my visits.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

AHCA related Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/868131740937801728



Too much to quote/paste, but worth reading.

Twitter is the worst way to communicate that much info. As I understand it, he thinks the united front on HC will collapse soon because the vbill is garbage. But I don't understand what the healthcare execs are saying or why a governor wants to keep one quiet.

 

[Frank the Great]

Even if we unseat Ryan, couldn't the House still elect him Speaker?

 

[jtb]

Dave Weigel (I think) had a good point. If insurers hate the bill so much, they should put their money where their mouth is rather than just putting out a brief PR statement.

I'm not convinced at all that the bill will simply collapse under its own weight and awfulness. The GOP is governed purely by electoral incentives, and they have yet to pay a price for being awful for a decade.

Even if we unseat Ryan, couldn't the House still elect him Speaker?

Sure, they could...

 

[kirblar]

Even if we unseat Ryan, couldn't the House still elect him Speaker?

They wouldn't, because he's been a terrible speaker.

 

[TestOfTide]

Didn't Paul Ryan's district vote for Obama in 08? Unseating him is definitely feasible, particularly given his highly public role. (Not sure how its been redistricted since then).

And would be a huge win, obviously. Foley/Daschle, etc.

Regardless, as we saw in 06 --> 08, many of these near misses in special elections can be turned into wins in 18. And many of the near misses can be consolidated into wins in 2020.

The real worry will be that Dems take the map/environment for granted, but I have a hard time seeing that happening right now. The base is mobilized and motivated at basically unprecedented levels.

edit: Ha, just got beat to the punch on the Obama/Ryan 08 split

Also, here is what a quick search on Kenosha businesses turned up:
https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/top-companies-kenosha-SRCH_IL.14,21_IC1133351_SDOR.htm

Perhaps somewhere is an opening?

Even if we unseat Ryan, couldn't the House still elect him Speaker?

That would look VERY bad for the GOP if they tried to keep as speaker someone who just lost their seat.

 

[kirblar]

Dave Weigel (I think) had a good point. If insurers hate the bill so much, they should put their money where their mouth is rather than just putting out a brief PR statement.

I think the twitter-chain spells it out- they're afraid of crossing the admin because the admin is vindictive and capricious.

 

[Hindl]

Even if we unseat Ryan, couldn't the House still elect him Speaker?

They could but it would be a bad look. Also it would be a shock if Ryan somehow loses his seat but the GOP remains in control of the House

 

[Blader]

Beohner knows firsthand how hard it is to GOP to agree on anything other than opposing democrats. Dude was inches away from getting a grand bargain with Obama until the HFC fucked him over.

Beohner is the best example to use when people call politics "theatre". As a politician he would rail against the democrats but behind closed doors he was actually friends with Obama.

Gingrich would talk about how destructive or traitorous the Democrats were, then head to the Oval after hours to talk shop with Bill.

 

[TestOfTide]

I think the twitter-chain spells it out- they're afraid of crossing the admin because the admin is vindictive and capricious.

The twitter chain also said that as more insurance people start speaking out against Trump, the CEOs will be more willing to push back against Trump.

 

[jtb]

Anyways, wouldn't Kevin McCarthy be chomping at the bit for the job? He's a big Trump booster. He'll put the Benghazi gaffe well behind him. He's next in line. Paul Ryan was never supposed to be Speaker in the first place - and he's shown everyone why time and time again.

Paul Ryan as unelected speaker is about as likely as a Hillary speakership.

I think the twitter-chain spells it out- they're afraid of crossing the admin because the admin is vindictive and capricious.

Tough shit. Classic collective action problem. If they're not going to defend the ACA, then Dems should just ram single payer through first chance they get and not even bother with the charade of courting insurers.

 

[kirblar]

The twitter chain also said that as more insurance people start speaking out against Trump, the CEOs will be more willing to push back against Trump.

A lot of this is needing to get through the budget battle first, I think.

 

[Loxley]

This adorable little girl asking why Obama isn't president anymore and then wondering how you even become president is my new favorite thing.

Her expressions say it all XD

 

[Box of Kittens]

Also it would be a shock if Ryan somehow loses his seat but the GOP remains in control of the House

This right here. It's an interesting hypothetical, but I don't see many scenarios in which Ryan loses his seat and the Republicans still hold onto 218. It would almost have to take some scandal that hurts Ryan personally, but not the GOP as a whole.

 

[kirblar]

Tough shit. Classic collective action problem. If they're not going to defend the ACA, then Dems should just ram single payer through first chance they get and not even bother with the charade of courting insurers.

This is what the public option was supposed to be there in part for! There's a real issue w/ uncertainty w/ the GOP being a bunch of crazy people who aren't acting in a rational manner.

 

[Blader]

I lol'd

https://twitter.com/SimonMaloy/status/868141133548924928

Simon Maloy‏Verified account
@SimonMaloy

strong conclusion to Hillary's commencement speech

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

This right here. It's an interesting hypothetical, but I don't see many scenarios in which Ryan loses his seat and the Republicans still hold onto 218. It would almost have to take some scandal that hurts Ryan personally, but not the GOP as a whole.

A friend of mine theorized that Trump prob had his lawyers and people dig through every facet of the GOP leaders' pasts to find whatever dirt is needed to keep him safe from impeachment. We shall see how that holds up.

 

[dramatis]

Anyways, wouldn't Kevin McCarthy be chomping at the bit for the job? He's a big Trump booster. He'll put the Benghazi gaffe well behind him. He's next in line. Paul Ryan was never supposed to be Speaker in the first place - and he's shown everyone why time and time again.

Paul Ryan as unelected speaker is about as likely as a Hillary speakership.

The reason Paul Ryan is speaker is because Kevin McCarthy can't be speaker lol

When Boehner resigned, McCarthy was next in line, but Freedom Caucus didn't want McCarthy. Then McCarthy went on TV and basically said the Republicans wasted millions of taxpayer dollars to drag down Hillary politically, and also McCarthy supposedly had an affair with another House rep that was going to blow if he became speaker. So he pulled out of the race.

Those 2 things (Freedom Caucus and affair) haven't changed since the time the speakership was up for grabs.

Man it feels so long ago.

 

[jtb]

The reason Paul Ryan is speaker is because Kevin McCarthy can't be speaker lol

When Boehner resigned, McCarthy was next in line, but Freedom Caucus didn't want McCarthy. Then McCarthy went on TV and basically said the Republicans wasted millions of taxpayer dollars to drag down Hillary politically, and also McCarthy supposedly had an affair with another House rep that was going to blow if he became speaker. So he pulled out of the race.

Those 2 things (Freedom Caucus and affair) haven't changed since the time the speakership was up for grabs.

Man it feels so long ago.

No one gives a shit about affairs. Freedom Caucus has veto power, sure, but it's not like they have any credible alternatives that can propose.

What, are they going to let Pelosi be Speaker? When they were out of power and could pass grandstanding bills, all they had was posturing. Now, they can pass actual policy and dumb political posturing is unnecessary.

Anyways, I think McCarthy's vocal support for Trump will go a long way to papering over all of those cracks.

(granted, none of this actually matters because there is no scenario where Ryan loses his seat and the GOP retains control of the house)

 

[numble]

A friend of mine theorized that Trump prob had his lawyers and people dig through every facet of the GOP leaders' pasts to find whatever dirt is needed to keep him safe from impeachment. We shall see how that holds up.

If this were true, couldn't Soros have his lawyers do that to make them unelectable?

 

[nature boy]

WTF Gallup, 41-54

Lucas Tomlinson‏Verified account @LucasFoxNews 1h1 hour ago
More
BREAKING: 2 Chinese J-10 fighter jets buzzed US Navy P-3 recon plane 150 miles SE of Hong Kong Wednesday

THEY WERE SHOT DOWN RIGHT, MACHO AMERICA DIDN'T LET THE CHINESE GET THE LAST LAUGH???

 

[Aaron Strife]

No one gives a shit about affairs. Freedom Caucus has veto power, sure, but it's not like they have any credible alternatives that can propose.

What, are they going to let Pelosi be Speaker? When they were out of power and could pass grandstanding bills, all they had was posturing. Now, they can pass actual policy and dumb political posturing is unnecessary.

Anyways, I think McCarthy's vocal support for Trump will go a long way to papering over all of those cracks.

(granted, none of this actually matters because there is no scenario where Ryan loses his seat and the GOP retains control of the house)

lol Democrats will make McCarthy Speaker because they are all big dumb dumb doodooheads LOL DNC SUX

WTF Gallup, 41-54

Yeah, probably just an outlier. Give it a few days and it'll even out.

 

[dramatis]

No one gives a shit about affairs. Freedom Caucus has veto power, sure, but it's not like they have any credible alternatives that can propose.

What, are they going to let Pelosi be Speaker? When they were out of power and could pass grandstanding bills, all they had was posturing. Now, they can pass actual policy and dumb political posturing is unnecessary.

Anyways, I think McCarthy's vocal support for Trump will go a long way to papering over all of those cracks.

(granted, none of this actually matters because there is no scenario where Ryan loses his seat and the GOP retains control of the house)

The people who give a shit about affairs are Kevin McCarthy, his wife, his family, his alleged mistress, and possibly her family.

Kevin McCarthy pulled out of the speakership race when it was his race to win. Whether it was the lack of support from the Freedom Caucus or the affair, we don't know. But he pulled out when he probably could have squeaked by without the Freedom Caucus.

Paul Ryan took the job because Boehner was basically begging him to do it. At a time like this, taking the speakership meant Ryan was tornadoing any hopes of becoming president for the rest of his life. Boehner probably cried his weight in tears to get Ryan to agree.

Ryan is there right now not because people want him to be there, it's because the Republicans don't have another choice. It's not about supporting Trump, it's about supporting the Freedom Caucus's crazy policies.

 

[jtb]

2015 was a very different political environment than 2017. It's not like McCarthy's a moderate. He's every bit as conservative as Ryan is, just lacks the ~serious, intellectual policy wonk~ flair.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

No one gives a shit about affairs. Freedom Caucus has veto power, sure, but it's not like they have any credible alternatives that can propose.


Anyways, I think McCarthy's vocal support for Trump will go a long way to papering over all of those cracks.

McCarthy will never be speaker. His bragging about how the Benghazi committee was damaging Clinton wasn't a one time thing. He blunders constantly on the mic and can't effectively message anything. Ryan's full of shit but he can at least get his talking points out.

 

[Blader]

McCarthy is too stupid to be speaker. His "Putin pays Trump" remark, totally unprovoked, was another reminder of this.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Theresa May is such an idiot.

(blue = Tories, red = Labour, orange = LibDem, yellow = SNP, purple = UKIP, green = Obvious)

more like URIP mirite

come on Corbyn pull this off

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

more like URIP mirite

come on Corbyn pull this off

Corbyn has no business running an ice cream stand, let alone the UK.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Theresa May is such an idiot.

(blue = Tories, red = Labour, orange = LibDem, yellow = SNP, purple = UKIP, green = Obvious)

This could be a hilarious backfire.

Speaking of hilarious backfires, Democrats have a generic ballot lead of 50-36 in North Carolina legislative elections according to Civitas (an R pollster). Trump has a 42-53 approval/disapproval in the state, compared to Governor Roy Cooper with a 58/25 approval spread.

If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling in NC vs. Covington, they'll hold legislative elections under new maps this November, so Democrats could actually stand to gain quite a bit.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Theresa May is such an idiot.

(blue = Tories, red = Labour, orange = LibDem, yellow = SNP, purple = UKIP, green = Obvious)

Still seems like a pretty huge gap, though the point of the upcoming election is for the Tories to consolidate more power right? (I'm not that familiar with British politics)

 

[Plinko]

But...wasn't Hillary's campaign too overly focused on being anti-Trump, and how a President Trump should scare the shit out of you? She cut her own Daisy ad!

It was, but she didn't counter with how she would make it better. Play to the fears and then tell how you are going to make things right. She did one--just not the other.

 

[Macho Madness]

Still seems like a pretty huge gap, though the point of the upcoming election is for the Tories to consolidate more power right? (I'm not that familiar with British politics)

Yes. They could actually lose seats while still keeping the majority. This election was supposed to be a cakewalk for them.