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[balladofwindfishes]

If Ossoff loses the narrative should be a failure for dems. Trump won it by 1.5% last year. It'd be a signal that Trump isn't turning the suburbs off from voting for Republicans, or at least enough of them for the Dems to achieve their goals in 2018.

Ossoff losing by 1-2%, applied to the whole country, would still be enough to win the house back in 2018, comfortably, I believe.

 

[TestOfTide]

Yeah 32% is probably about as low as it can get until rank-and-file Republicans actually turn on Trump, and that would probably take a huge recession.

Honestly I don't think that would do anything.

Trump's fanbase is a TRUMP fanbase more than anything else. They would literally jump off a cliff if Trump told them to. The GOP hasn't removed Trump and replaced him with Pence because they aren't a Pence fanbase, they aren't a Paul Ryan fanbase, and in some ways they aren't even a GOP fanbase.

Like literally if the entire GOP establishment turned on Trump, trump's fanbase would abandon the GOP.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Well, duh, of course Trump isn't going to preside over a dumb war or have the economy collapse, he said he's going to make America great again.

It was on his hat, so you know it's true.

so you're telling me in 72 we really did need Nixon then more than ever? Good thing he won by so much then!

 

[Basileus777]

Well, duh, of course Trump isn't going to preside over a dumb war or have the economy collapse, he said he's going to make America great again.

It was on his hat, so you know it's true.

Even for Trump making those things happen isn't easy. W. is a very high bar to surpass. Even terrible Presidents need the right circumstances to maximize how much they fuck up a country and the world.

 

[benjipwns]

so you're telling me in 72 we really did need Nixon then more than ever? Good thing he won by so much then!

There is an old Vulcan proverb: only Nixon could go to China.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Honestly I don't think that would do anything.

Trump's fanbase is a TRUMP fanbase more than anything else. They would literally jump off a cliff if Trump told them to. The GOP hasn't removed Trump and replaced him with Pence because they aren't a Pence fanbase, they aren't a Paul Ryan fanbase, and in some ways they aren't even a GOP fanbase.

Like literally if the entire GOP establishment turned on Trump, trump's fanbase would abandon the GOP.

Nah, I think when people start losing their jobs, houses, money and healthcare they start turning on him.

Will there always be people who approve of Trump? Yes, absolutely. But I don't think we hit that rock bottom until mid-20s, maybe even the teens.

 

[Basileus777]

Nah, I think when people start losing their jobs, houses, money and healthcare they start turning on him.

But does this actually happen? AHCA may very well not pass in any form and there's hardly some guarantee of economic collapse.

 

[benjipwns]

The fact that we're talking about mid-20's as rock bottom just proves how patriotic and amazing America is. Not like France, who chickened out and gave Hollande a 4% approval rating. We'd never cut and run like that on our Presidents. God Bless America.

 

[TestOfTide]

Nah, I think when people start losing their jobs, houses, money and healthcare they start turning on him.

Will there always be people who approve of Trump? Yes, absolutely. But I don't think we hit that rock bottom until mid-20s, maybe even the teens.

Here's how I always put it:

20-25% of the country would literally jump off of a cliff if Trump told them to.

an additional 10-15% of the country KNOW Trump is fucking up but are too embarrassed to admit it. They would turn on him if he started negatively affecting them as you suggest.

That 20-25% I mentioned though? They are basically just a hardcore TRUMP fanbase, not a hardcore Pence fanbase or a hardcore GOP fanbase. If the GOP ever tried to turn on Trump, this fanbase would turn on the GOP.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Here's how I always put it:

20-25% of the country would literally jump off of a cliff if Trump told them to.

an additional 10-15% of the country KNOW Trump is fucking up but are too embarrassed to admit it. They would turn on him if he started negatively affecting them as you suggest.

That 20-25% I mentioned though? They are basically just a hardcore TRUMP fanbase, not a hardcore Pence fanbase or a hardcore GOP fanbase. If the GOP ever tried to turn on Trump, this fanbase would turn on the GOP.

I think that's fair.

Trump can probably end up at 50% with Republicans and practically zero with everyone else.

But does this actually happen? AHCA may very well not pass in any form and there's hardly some guarantee of economic collapse.

Seems like we're on track for some type of downturn, even if it's not a Great Recession-type collapse that will still hurt him.

 

[Drkirby]

He hit 35% at the end of March.

Ah, didn't notice.

I wonder how Trump feels that he has never even hit 50% yet. His all time highest was 46%.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Ah, didn't notice.

I wonder how Trump feels that he has never even hit 50% yet. His all time highest was 46%.

I wonder if 45ish is his ceiling. There's got to be a pretty large part of the country that will never like him no matter what he does.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I wonder if 45ish is his ceiling. There's got to be a pretty large part of the country that will never like him no matter what he does.

Yeah, he's too much of an asshole.

He's done or said something to offend just about every single part of the Dem base vote.

 

[benjipwns]

I wonder if 45ish is his ceiling. There's got to be a pretty large part of the country that will never like him no matter what he does.

He got 44.9% of the popular vote in the Republican primaries. 3.5 million of his 14 million votes came after everyone had dropped out.

I'm not sayin.

I'm just sayin.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

if it gets low enough I am super curious how a Kasich primary would go down

Trump with 30% approval come 2020 still should have a lot of Republican fans and I don't think the early schedule is favorable to Kasich outside of NH with the.

I suppose someone else could gun for a primary but I definitely think Kasich would and I'm not sure who else would be able to. Sasse maybe?

 

[Grexeno]

if it gets low enough I am super curious how a Kasich primary would go down

Trump with 30% approval come 2020 still should have a lot of Republican fans and I don't think the early schedule is favorable to Kasich outside of NH with the.

I suppose someone else could gun for a primary but I definitely think Kasich would and I'm not sure who else would be able to. Sasse maybe?

I don't know if there's another conceivable chance for Kasich if he doesn't primary in 2020.

 

[Aaron Strife]

if it gets low enough I am super curious how a Kasich primary would go down

Trump with 30% approval come 2020 still should have a lot of Republican fans and I don't think the early schedule is favorable to Kasich outside of NH with the.

I suppose someone else could gun for a primary but I definitely think Kasich would and I'm not sure who else would be able to. Sasse maybe?

We'll see if Trump even lasts that long.

Pence vs. Kasich, fight.

 

[JesseEwiak]

if it gets low enough I am super curious how a Kasich primary would go down

Trump with 30% approval come 2020 still should have a lot of Republican fans and I don't think the early schedule is favorable to Kasich outside of NH with the.

I suppose someone else could gun for a primary but I definitely think Kasich would and I'm not sure who else would be able to. Sasse maybe?

Kasich would be the worst possible candidate.

A candidate to take Trump down has to have conservative credentials and not be seen as a RINO or member of the Establishment stealing the party from the grassroots. The best case scenario would be a conservative Republican governor who'd have no connections to the Congressional battles and such.

 

[benjipwns]

if it gets low enough I am super curious how a Kasich primary would go down

Trump with 30% approval come 2020 still should have a lot of Republican fans and I don't think the early schedule is favorable to Kasich outside of NH with the.

I suppose someone else could gun for a primary but I definitely think Kasich would and I'm not sure who else would be able to. Sasse maybe?

Still the closest John Kasich is ever getting to a Presidential ticket: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wuib2Vo3hSo

 

[benjipwns]

Maybe Hillary will run in the 2020 GOP Primary.

Spoiler

And Bernie.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Would Kasich need permission from the GOP to primary Trump?

 

[Basileus777]

if it gets low enough I am super curious how a Kasich primary would go down

Trump with 30% approval come 2020 still should have a lot of Republican fans and I don't think the early schedule is favorable to Kasich outside of NH with the.

I suppose someone else could gun for a primary but I definitely think Kasich would and I'm not sure who else would be able to. Sasse maybe?

Kasich is still a weak candidate that won't pry poor whites and evangelicals from Trump, especially in the South. You can't win the Republican nomination just off of suburban voters.

 

[benjipwns]

Would Kasich need permission from the GOP to primary Trump?

No.

Obama and W. Bush both faced primary challengers in their re-elections. You just didn't hear about them because they were relative nobodies. Except for that guy who was in jail and almost beat Obama or whatever.

The last time "serious" candidates ran against or considered running against an incumbent President were:
2004 - Lincoln Chafee was going to challenge W. Bush in New Hampshire over Iraq, then Saddam got captured like the week he was going to announce.
1996 - The left-wing of the Democratic Party wanted so desperately to challenge Clinton's liberal policies that they even considered drafting Warren Beatty. Dick Gephardt considered it briefly, as did Jesse Jackson. Bob Casey considered challenging Clinton on a purely pro-life platform but he died.
1992 - Pat Buchanan scared H. W. so much in NH they let him stupidly give his culture war speech.
1980 - Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter all the way to the convention (Jerry Brown briefly did as well).
1976 - Reagan challenged Gerald Ford all the way to the convention and unlike Kennedy could have actually beat him if the undecided delegates flopped his way.

 

[benjipwns]

Some contemporary pieces on the oft forgotten left unhappiness with Clinton at the time:
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...CLINTON-MAY-GO-ON-INACTIVE-STATUS.html?pg=all

In 1992, the first time Bill Clinton ran for president, Sierra Club activist Bill Arthur rallied 800 volunteers to deliver leaflets in Seattle urging environmentalist-minded voters to the polls.

Los Angeles gay activist David Mixner helped raise millions of dollars and energized thousands of homosexual voters to support the Democratic ticket.Steelworkers' Union organizer Sam Dawson proselytized blue-collar workers in Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, wooing them back to the Democratic fold.

But as the 1996 presidential campaign approaches, none of these activists shows much enthusiasm for going to work again to give Clinton another four years in the White House.

"There's a bitter taste in my mouth," Arthur said. "There have been too many broken promises . . . I can't, and won't, do what I did in 1992 again."

"There's a real lack of passion out there," said Mixner, who helped organize what was believed to be the biggest turnout of openly gay and lesbian voters in history. "We are vastly better off under Bill Clinton - but we are also vastly disappointed."

https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Anyone+left?+The+search+for+a+Clinton+challenger+in+1996.-a016914424

On the day after the voting, as Clinton spoke of seeking common ground with Gingrich, Jackson was branding the Contract with America the "Contract on America." Long before Congressional Democrats began to formulate a strategy for defending school-lunch and food-stamp programs from GOP assaults, Jackson was calling the left to the barricades.

It was Jackson's Rainbow Coalition that organized the January "Defending Our Family: Strategies for Economic Justice and Hope" conference in Washington, which drew representatives from NOW, the ACLU, the National Education Association, the National Council of La Raza, the Human Rights Campaign Fund, and dozens of other groups.

C-SPAN carried the proceedings of that conference, and The New York Times and other publications gave it extensive coverage, prompting a flurry of speculation about a possible Jackson challenge to Clinton. That speculation was fueled by reports of Jackson's visits to Iowa and New Hampshire--the first caucus and primary states, respectively.

In late February and early March, as the Clinton Administration's support for affirmative-action programs seemed to waver, the Jackson talk grew even louder. Jackson, who has criticized Clinton's approach to the budget, crime, and international-trade agreements, was infuriated by the President's failure to effectively counter a mounting Republican assault on a key plank in the civil-rights platform.

"He's reacting at a time that we need assertive leadership," Jackson said of Clinton. When asked if that meant he was prepared to challenge Clinton, however, Jackson was coy, saying only that "all options are open."

In the January issue of The Progressive, Jackson argued that Clinton must defend the civil-rights and social-justice agenda. "If that does not happen," Jackson said, "then somebody will run in the primaries, and perhaps somebody will run even as an independent."

As long as Jackson remains undecided about a run, other potential candidates are essentially left in limbo--knowing that a Jackson candidacy would instantly obscure their efforts.

If Jackson should opt out, attention would likely turn to Ralph Nader. The consumer advocate remains one of the most identifiable and respected figures in American public affairs, and he has been among the most vocal critics of Clinton, particularly on issues such as NAFTA and GATT.

"Basically Clinton follows the power of the global corporations, who are his masters," Nader said last fall during the GATT debate.

Progressives around the country mention other potential candidates as well--including Representative Bernie Sanders, the Vermont socialist who is the only independent member of the House

 

[sc0la]

Bob Casey considered challenging Clinton on a purely pro-life platform but he died.

How can you call yourself pro-life if you plan on dying one day?

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Some contemporary pieces on the oft forgotten left unhappiness with Clinton at the time:
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...CLINTON-MAY-GO-ON-INACTIVE-STATUS.html?pg=all


https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Anyone+left?+The+search+for+a+Clinton+challenger+in+1996.-a016914424

Brown's 92 campaign was weird because he ran on single payer being better than the Clinton plan but also on a flat income tax and a VAT.

 

[benjipwns]

How can you call yourself pro-life if you plan on dying one day?

Do as I say not as I do.

Also, guess he just got really sick again in 1995, and didn't die until 2000.

2000 was a similar kind of situation in that a whole bunch of Democrats floated their names for a few months including Paul Wellstone, Dick Gephardt, Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Howard Dean, etc. but only Bill Bradley actually manned up and entered.

Oh, the days when you didn't have to actually start really running for President until fall of the year before the election.

That was when John Kasich ran and dropped out the first time.

 

[kess]

Leftist being dissatified with their candidate is as old as time. I found an article in a newspaper regarding John Lewis and his dissatisfaction with the motives of FDR and his commitment to the labor movement, even though FDR probably did more before or since to promote Labor relations than any other president.

The article was written by Saul Alinsky, should get around to scanning that.

 

[benjipwns]

Brown's 92 campaign was weird because he ran on single payer being better than the Clinton plan but also on a flat income tax and a VAT.

No, this is weirder: http://blog.sfgate.com/thebigevent/...rowns-1-800-presidential-hotline-still-works/

Also that time he was reading the newspaper during a debate while the other candidates blabbed on.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Ugh. The narrative if ossoff loses should be "GOP should be nervous about the squeaker they just won" but will actually be "dems fail to capitalize because Hillary hates the rust belt"

If ossoff wins though....

If Ossoff wins the narrative will be that Democrats are doomed because he didn't win by enough.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Do as I say not as I do.

Also, guess he just got really sick again in 1995, and didn't die until 2000.

2000 was a similar kind of situation in that a whole bunch of Democrats floated their names for a few months including Paul Wellstone, Dick Gephardt, Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Howard Dean, etc. but only Bill Bradley actually manned up and entered.

Oh, the days when you didn't have to actually start really running for President until fall of the year before the election.

That was when John Kasich ran and dropped out the first time.

Wellstone bailed because he had MS.

 

[Ogodei]

If Ossoff wins the Trump rage will be enough to warm my heart through next Spring.

 

[benjipwns]

Leftist being dissatified with their candidate is as old as time. I found an article in a newspaper regarding John Lewis and his dissatisfaction with the motives of FDR and his commitment to the labor movement, even though FDR probably did more before or since to promote Labor relations than any other president.

The article was written by Saul Alinsky, should get around to scanning that.

Lewis supported Hoover and Willkie over FDR.

FDR would have got my vote over fascist wannabe Hoover in 1932:

I know something of taxes. For three long years I have been going up and down this country preaching that Government--Federal and State and local--costs too much. I shall not stop that preaching. As an immediate program of action we must abolish useless offices. We must eliminate unnecessary functions of Government--functions, in fact, that are not definitely essential to the continuance of Government. We must merge, we must consolidate subdivisions of Government, and, like the private citizen, give up luxuries which we can no longer afford.

By our example at Washington itself, we shall have the opportunity of pointing the way of economy to local government, for let us remember well that out of every tax dollar in the average State in this Nation, 40 cents enter the treasury in Washington, D. C., 10 or 12 cents only go to the State capitals, and 48 cents are consumed by the costs of local government in counties and cities and towns.

And talking about setting a definite example, I congratulate this convention for having had the courage fearlessly to write into its declaration of principles what an overwhelming majority here assembled really thinks about the 18th Amendment. This convention wants repeal. Your candidate wants repeal. And I am confident that the United States of America wants repeal.

Now as a further aid to agriculture, we know perfectly well-- but have we come out and said so clearly and distinctly?--we should repeal immediately those provisions of law that compel the Federal Government to go into the market to purchase, to sell, to speculate in farm products in a futile attempt to reduce farm surpluses. And they are the people who are talking of keeping Government out of business. The practical way to help the farmer is by an arrangement that will, in addition to lightening some of the impoverishing burdens from his back, do something toward the reduction of the surpluses of staple commodities that hang on the market.

Out of all the tons of printed paper, out of all the hours of oratory, the recriminations, the defenses, the happy-thought plans in Washington and in every State, there emerges one great, simple, crystal-pure fact that during the past ten years a Nation of 120,000,000 people has been led by the Republican leaders to erect an impregnable barbed wire entanglement around its borders through the instrumentality of tariffs which have isolated us from all the other human beings in all the rest of the round world. I accept that admirable tariff statement in the platform of this convention. It would protect American business and American labor. By our acts of the past we have invited and received the retaliation of other Nations. I propose an invitation to them to forget the past, to sit at the table with us, as friends, and to plan with us for the restoration of the trade of the world.

Go into the home of the business man. He knows what the tariff has done for him. Go into the home of the factory worker. He knows why goods do not move. Go into the home of the farmer. He knows how the tariff has helped to ruin him.

Shame that once he got into office he immediately confiscated wealth of the American worker, established corporatist syndicates and expanded all of Hoover's failed policies. And that was just in the first hundred days.

That's when I learned to stop trusting politicians during campaigns.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I never understood how FDR could about-face so drastically from his campaign rhetoric. And furthermore how voters could forgive him for 1) lying then 2) failing, since the New Deal began to twilight.

 

[Box of Kittens]

While looking for the latest GA-6 numbers I ended up on the Twitter feed of a Never Trump conservative and was reminded why I find them so irritating. There was zero introspection. Just "Trump, like everything bad, happened because of liberals."

 

[Cesare Borgia]

The republican primary schedule still heavily favors far right extremism. Trump could be at 30% and still beat Kasich simply due to Iowa+southern primaries being frontloaded. He basically holds the GOP hostage at this point.

Getting him to 30% or lower would require something truly crazy. Perhaps a terrible, completely inept response to a national disaster or some type of power grab that convinces republicans to jump ship.

 

[tuxfool]

While looking for the latest GA-6 numbers I ended up on the Twitter feed of a Never Trump conservative and was reminded why I find them so irritating. There was zero introspection. Just "Trump, like everything bad, happened because of liberals."

Cool. Feeling is mutual. Trump happened because of them.

(though I think not all never Trumpers are like that)

 

[benjipwns]

I never understood how FDR could about-face so drastically from his campaign rhetoric. And furthermore how voters could forgive him for 1) lying then 2) failing, since the New Deal began to twilight.

Remember, it was nearly six months after the election that he took office back then. Inauguration was in March. Closer to a year from that convention speech.

And during the transition they refused to coordinate with the Hoover administration on making decisions and Hoover responded (since he was a dick) by refusing to do anything to help out, so things just kinda...sat for six months almost until he took office and immediately started doing stuff. (A big one was what to do with the failing banks, because they didn't cooperate FDR basically had to order the bank holiday because they hadn't done shit and it was months of bank closures happening in increasing fashion.)

A lot more leeway unlike the last two elections where we had Romney and Trump and Clinton all prepped to start pushing Obama out of the news cycle with their constant transition announcements and so on.

 

[Diablos]

As if US democracy will exist in 15 years.

As long as the PC market can be subsidized like Microsoft can. I can't live with Scorpio being the 4K king! Forget SCOTUS, healthcare, the economy, US leadership in general!

No AHCA till after midterms? So after they get clobbered (I hope) they'll send the shitty bill they've been fapping to over to Trump's desk as a final fuck you?

 

[Stinkles]

Lewis supported Hoover and Willkie over FDR.

FDR would have got my vote over fascist wannabe Hoover in 1932:




Shame that once he got into office he immediately confiscated wealth of the American worker, established corporatist syndicates and expanded all of Hoover's failed policies. And that was just in the first hundred days.

That's when I learned to stop trusting politicians during campaigns.

You learned to stop trusting politicians in 1932?

 

[benjipwns]

The funny part was when Hoover railed against FDR's socialist agenda when Hoover himself considered taking over entire industries like had been done during World War I in part because Hoover considered the problem was simply their poor management which he would obviously be better at.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

You learned to stop trusting politicians in 1932?

Benji is a Time-Lord

 

[Zolo]

Ah, didn't notice.

I wonder how Trump feels that he has never even hit 50% yet. His all time highest was 46%.

He rejects this reality and substitutes it with his own.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Benji is a Time-Lord

Time is a construct

 

[benjipwns]

Time has the ultimate monopoly on the use of force.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Time has the ultimate monopoly on the use of force.

Does this mean Time is illegitimate and nonexistent?

Like the state?

 

[benjipwns]

Does this mean Time is illegitimate and nonexistent?

Like the state?

Daylight savings time is a scam, time doesn't change, the state's just trying to make you count it differently by force! WAKE UP SHEEPLE! #STOPTHESCALPINGS

 

[Box of Kittens]

As someone who grew up in Indiana, I miss not having to bother with Daylight Saving Time. What a stupid concept. I'll never forgive Mitch Daniels for ruining one of the best things about the state. Do you think it's a coincidence that I left the state shortly after?

Spoiler

OK, it is.

 

[Mirand]

Comey Week on deck.

Should be one for the books.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Speaking of which, when does Schiff get back on deck. GOP have been running trying to keep him from the hearing chair.