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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
- Start date
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Andy Slavitt wrote a pretty good twitter thread to discuss the AHCA.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/872239594577833984
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/872239594577833984
Pssssssst there's no way to really obstruct.
As someone who is fully insured through the ACA right now, this constant cycle of "LOL THE BILL IS DEAD" -> "oh shit it's happening" -> LOL THE BILL IS DEAD" -> "oh shit it's happening" is really.......stressful right now. I mean I don't even have any current health issues to speak of and still. I hate these fuckers so much.
I have two dem senators so not much personal lobbying to do.
I have two dem senators so not much personal lobbying to do.
jack_package_200
Banned
.
neurosisxeno
Member
If the bill ever becomes law, 2010 will look like a victory for Democrats compared to what the Republicans will witness within 2 years of it being implemented. We're talking a 50% swing of seats across the House and Senate if the AHCA passes. If you want a Democratic Supermajority in the House and Senate, the AHCA is the best opportunity for that...
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
That's not very comforting for someone who might lose their health insurance!
"How dare you call our voters deplorable."
neurosisxeno
Member
With a supermajority we can implement Single Payer, and once it's here, the Genie isn't going back into the bottle.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
You realize that when they repeal Obamacare they are already putting the genie back in the bottle
right
Single Payer is a pretty significant milestone. Any attempts to go away from that is guaranteed to have less people insured.
neurosisxeno
Member
When peoples premiums go up even further and millions more are without insurance any complaints people had of Obamacare will become fond memories--"remember when we all had insurance and it actually covered stuff?" It's going to blow up in their faces more than I think they imagine. If they go through with this it's going to get to the point where Democrats could put Scarecrows with signs that say "Where's your healthcare?" around their necks on the ticket and win some seats. Lower income families--the ones that benefit from the ACA--are the ones that are going to be hit the hardest, and they are not going to take too kindly to Trumpcare. They're going to "win" by repealing the Black Presidents health insurance plan, and then lose the entire federal government because doing so will galvanize the Democratic base literally everywhere.
While the ACA is a step towards Single Payer, it's still quite far away. I think if CA gets their system up and running well it will change a lot of peoples minds.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The GOP would repeal Single Payer.
They don't give a fuck.
They're going on a suicide mission with a bill less popular than TARP that kills their own voters.
They don't give a fuck.
They're going on a suicide mission with a bill less popular than TARP that kills their own voters.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Seconding "they don't give a fuck".
RustyNails
Member
2-3 years of suffering until President Booker with Dem supermajority will sign single payer into law in 2021.
Edit: Also fuck Eric Trump. Trump managed to spawn filth that's actually worse than him.
cartoon_soldier
Member
How did the GA debate go today?
neurosisxeno
Member
I was thinking President Al Franken with Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand at his side. But to each their own. It could be President Mark Warner or Kamala Harris for all I care.
6 Months ago: How can they call some of us deplorables??? That's so mean!
Last Night: Democrats aren't even people.
shinra-bansho
Member
President Gabbard with Vice President Nina Turner.
cartoon_soldier
Member
GA EV doesn't look that hot for Dems.
Basileus777
Member
Based on?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Comparison to 2016 EV wether Trump won by one point in EV.
Flying Toaster
Member
I have been out of the loop for two days. What is this I am hearing about the senate forcing healthcare through. I will gladly read it all my own if anyone has a good direct source.
And DeKalb being a much higher percentage of the early vote than Cobb is...?
When the Montana mail-in votes were coming in, we all knew it was bad news for Quist when Gianforte's 2016 counties were coming in at larger numbers than Bullock's counties, especially Yellowstone. Missoula in particular had lower turnout than the state as a whole. So you can't say Cobb's low turnout and DeKalb's high turnout so far is bad for Ossoff unless you only want to panic.
ShironRedshift
Member
I feel sick.I had convinced myself the Senate/McConnell wouldn't be this insane/reckless. What suddenly changed to convince them pushing through this trainwreck now is a good idea, for anyone? Ugh. I'm health atm, but my insurance is gone if this passes. Fuck everything these idiots stand for. God damnit, why couldn't we have regained the Senate at the very least last year...
shinra-bansho
Member
I'll believe it when I see it.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Black turnout in EV is far below where it should be and where it was in 2016 EV for GA-6. That is a bit problem for Ossoff and any Dem candidate.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Actually Shinra is right. If this bill that was supposedly DOA just a week ago really is still DOA and it was just fearmongering in this thread that raised my blood pressure, I'm going to be pissed off.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Dont underestimated McConnell.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
By thinking he's dumb enough to kill the fragile majority he spent 7 years building, you're underestimating.
But also, Republicans don't give a fuck.
What would Diablos say in this situation?
Fuck!
whyamihere
Banned
Ugh, no. This is incorrect.
The EV is slightly younger, slightly more diverse, more non-traditional voters than in round 1 with spikes in Asian voters.
It's going to be close, and literally is what the race always was -- a coin flip. You don't need to make things up to take everyone who isn't paying attention to the numbers down to whatever nihilistic sewer you enjoy self-flagellating yourself in.
BigJonsson
Member
Terror attack in Iran?
Gunman(men?) at parlaiment and at a shrine
NBC News‏Verified account @NBCNews 22m22 minutes ago
JUST IN: Iran's parliament has reportedly been attacked by gunmen http://nbcnews.to/2r022GQ
Gunman(men?) at parlaiment and at a shrine
NBC News‏Verified account @NBCNews 22m22 minutes ago
JUST IN: Iran's parliament has reportedly been attacked by gunmen http://nbcnews.to/2r022GQ
whyamihere
Banned
round 1
It was already lower than predicted. It doesn't need to be at 2016 levels -- it just needs to be at better-than-round-1. Where Ossoff got 48% of the vote. And, again, Michael McDonald is working off of an older voter file, so take that data with a grain of salt.
Like, honestly, do you enjoy doing this to yourself?
Not to mention this phenomena
@ForecasterEnten
So if we break down the GA-6 polls by month... 2 things are apparent. 1. Number of undecideds dropping. 2. Small, but consistent Ossoff lead
It's almost like... that's what he wants to do!
cartoon_soldier
Member
I didn't know Michael was working with an older voter file.
They point remains that Dems are still having a a tougher time turning out black voters and that makes retaking house tougher.
They point remains that Dems are still having a a tougher time turning out black voters and that makes retaking house tougher.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
New Jersey democrats just nominated a uber rich self described "elite" who spent 23 years in Goldman Sachs leadership to be their nominee, having the endorsement of Cory Booker, Joe Biden, and Bob Menendez and outspending the rest of his opponents combined $22 million to $5 million.
Democrats keep saying economic populism is the future of the party, and then turn around and push for candidates with the only determination being who can raise the most money. It's frustrating.
And the primary mechanics is probably screwing democrats more than republicans in an atmosphere where the center is basically extinct. Republicans as a whole are fine with big money influence and the older and richer primary base represents their constituency pretty well. They'll turn out for absolutely anyone anyway, and don't have to worry about courting new voters until demographic changes hit critical mass.
On the other hand, outsized big money influence and older/richer primary voters are going lead to exactly the type of candidate that turns off the type of people democrats need but have a hard time getting to vote.
Democrats keep saying economic populism is the future of the party, and then turn around and push for candidates with the only determination being who can raise the most money. It's frustrating.
And the primary mechanics is probably screwing democrats more than republicans in an atmosphere where the center is basically extinct. Republicans as a whole are fine with big money influence and the older and richer primary base represents their constituency pretty well. They'll turn out for absolutely anyone anyway, and don't have to worry about courting new voters until demographic changes hit critical mass.
On the other hand, outsized big money influence and older/richer primary voters are going lead to exactly the type of candidate that turns off the type of people democrats need but have a hard time getting to vote.
whyamihere
Banned
I would say that the mechanics of a New Jersey primary have more to do with this than anything else. It's really hard to be an insurgent.
You post these things with authority without asking questions and you end up confusing people who aren't paying attention to the data. It's continuously frustrating and it keeps happening.
I'm not making a call either way on GA-6, but compared to round 1, this is what I'd expect.
Basileus777
Member
And for all that even Murphy's primary opponents couldn't find a good way to attack his policy positions from the left as even the Sanders candidate pretty much has the same positions as him. Murphy is going to win the governorship with ease, he's not going to turn off NJ voters.
cartoon_soldier
Member
He ran a very progressive campaign. Dems need to get over the idea they wall street can't have progressive folks.
He was endorsed by someone on Bernie side too I believe.
aspiegamer
Member
Qatar must have done something godawful behind the scenes to have this thrown at them. With the fake story thing out in the open there has to be some other justification to escalate things. Who there specifically is worth weakening? What's there to gain by knocking them down? I'm not even sure what Russia is gaining by shoving their nose in. A more united front in that area against Iran is not in their interests.
Trump is completely screwed on this. He can either side with the Saudis--what the obvious choice would be--But there's that massive airbase we can't afford to just give up or abandon. Is this just a Saudi power play? I mean, say they want to invade (under unknown lazy justification). Who's going to stop them? This has trainwreck written all over it, with plenty of opportunities but very little understanding of motive.
Trump is completely screwed on this. He can either side with the Saudis--what the obvious choice would be--But there's that massive airbase we can't afford to just give up or abandon. Is this just a Saudi power play? I mean, say they want to invade (under unknown lazy justification). Who's going to stop them? This has trainwreck written all over it, with plenty of opportunities but very little understanding of motive.
Per the document, the piss tape is girls peeing on the bed that Obama had slept in, presumably while Trump watched. There was nothing about Trump peeing, or getting peed on.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
Wait, what?
*googles*
Oh, so it is. Huh. Well that's what I get for never actually researching it and just going off what I read here when the dossier first leaked.
That's like really comparatively bland though. That's like, barely scandalous for anyone but evangelicals, and even then you'd probably get a ton playing the "well now he's reborn in Christ" card.
Like, I kind of believe in it less now, too. I mean I could see Donald Trump being a pedophilic pervert who abuses his power and money nigh-psychopathically. But paying a bunch of hookers to pee on a bed because the Obamas slept there? That seems both too creative and requiring off too much energy for him.
Those aren't the same groups of Dems.
The ones attracted to populism as a tactic aren't going to be living in New Jersey, for the most part.
I've been getting some of the ads since I'm in a close media market and Murphy's major competition looked more like he was running the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign than his own bid for governor. Seriously, they were like half Bernie speaking, then a voice over with the candidate sitting in a room with kids saying nothing. If you were just flipping through you couldn't tell the NJ presidential primary was over.
Yea it's hard to run as an insurgent, but when your own positive ads don't feature you prominently, that's a problem.
It's only a matter of how petty you can believe that Trump is.
shinra-bansho
Member
Do they?
What the fuck? How do we go from 'no AHCA until after the midterms' to this in like a week?
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