Sometimes you reap what you sow... This is karma coming back to bite them for ruining their grandchildren's ability to actually get ahead in life.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Sometimes you reap what you sow... This is karma coming back to bite them for ruining their grandchildren's ability to actually get ahead in life.
I agree that we can't rely on him forever, but when he left office there were a bunch of cryptic comments about cards he was playing close the his chest that he wouldn't useless certain red lines are crossed. I also think that with him out of office his potential to galvanize opposition is much lower than his ability to galvanize his base. I mean he could let a proxy use his email network or...something. Ultimately I'm wondering less about Obama specifically and more about why the speed of the progress lately isn't prompting some kind of reaction from the leadership of this party.
Having majorities doesn't imply a smooth path if there's no ideological unity, or deep unpopularity, or if there are procedural hurdles which stop them, such as the 60 votes this bill should require to pass.
We've known they had a majority since November, but the situation is much more dire now because all of the potential obstacles have been cleared in very short order.
The last March for Health was April 1. Basically the worst possible timing in the grand scheme of things because that was right after the initial failure. Circumstances have changed dramatically since then.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Shitty Ted Cruz gets cut off at Freedom Caucus Conference:
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/872904279027265538
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/872904279027265538
Poodlestrike
Banned
Honestly, we'd need to see the GOP's interals to be sure, but I think that the basic reasoning they're operating under is: failing to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something further to the right is going to get enough people primaried by lunatics that the party's odds of holding power in 2018 go up if they pass this godawful bill. Or at least that the individual party members feel that they, personally, have better odds in a general against pissed off Dems and independents than they do against their own right flank, but I doubt McConnell would go along with that.
The only weird part is the stop-start nature of the thing. Every time it seems dead it gets another jolt. Thats why I called it an outside force, something cracking the whip whenever the GOP seems to stagger.
The only weird part is the stop-start nature of the thing. Every time it seems dead it gets another jolt. Thats why I called it an outside force, something cracking the whip whenever the GOP seems to stagger.
My point is old people are definitely going to care when their heathcare gets fucked.
HFC members salivating at the prospect of the senate allowing them to tell their people to just drop dead when they get sick next. The Senate AHCA can't be radically different if they're ramming it through this fast.
They'll be met with raucous applause.
I believe that the GOP's incentive structure is basically broken at this point.
They're screwed if they don't pass AHCA. They're screwed if they do pass AHCA.
Since the only policy they believe in is tax cuts for the wealthy, if the electoral incentives are equal, they'll just defer to their core ideology. They're true believers.
It's to prevent primary challenges. They know 2018 will be rough because it's always rough (barring exceptional circumstances.)
ACA has become more popular with Democrats since repeal started looking real, not with Republicans.
The Republicans voting for these senators and congressmen are either too partisan or too stupid to care about how their elected officials are about to gut their healthcare, and I don't see a significant bloc of them suddenly having a come to Jesus moment that motivates them to vote Democrat next year in retaliation for this. There's no snapping out of it. Being a Republican and hating Democrats is so core to how many of these people identify themselves in this country that they'd sooner sacrifice their healthcare and well-being than vote D.
I would love to be wrong, and see a great blue wave in ACA-reliant red states and districts next year. But after years and years of this shit, now crystallized in a Republican government led by Donald Trump, I am just not convinced at all that the fever will ever break here.
I could see that logic actually. For your average R you either get thrown out in 2018 because you did nothing and get primaried, or you passed a draconian, Ayn Randian wet dream of a bill and get destroyed by a Dem. If you're toast either way you may as well give more money to rich people
So then that's a smart thing for him to say to appear ignorant. Why doesn't what he's saying make any sense?
Got it. Thanks.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
The ACA has become more popular among Republicans and Democrats since Trump's election. There are plenty of opinion polls which show this.
It's not an enormous swing, somewhere in the range of 8-10% depending on the poll you look at, but it's real.
This is a little overly pessimistic and fatalistic, imo. We're already seeing enormous erosion in Trump's approval numbers (particularly the "strong approval" and on the generic ballot, and a huge, consistent swing in the special elections.
The enormous tidal wave of rural vote in 2016 will be mitigated by current districting/party coalitions (path to D majority goes through the Hillary/GOP districts - win every single one of them, and D take the majority), and the fact that they are the ones being directly hurt the most by AHCA. Just because they won't vote for the Dem doesn't mean they'll turn out; that's every bit as valuable electorally.
Easy to look at the collapse of the Dems in 2014 as a sign that we'll never win those seats ever again, but on the other hand, those are all seats that went D in 2008.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
In 2018, right now democrats have about a 7-point lead in Congressional balloting. That's huge, and more than it was in the last huge Congressional waves.
That said, gerrymandering is worse. People are more polarized, both in their beliefs and places they live. I'm not convinced this 7-ponit lead (if it holds) would be enough to swing the House because it doesn't take into account where these races are occurring.
If anybody knows a source that has more detailed information like this, please let me know.
That said, gerrymandering is worse. People are more polarized, both in their beliefs and places they live. I'm not convinced this 7-ponit lead (if it holds) would be enough to swing the House because it doesn't take into account where these races are occurring.
If anybody knows a source that has more detailed information like this, please let me know.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Republicans do manage to get this travesty through, it then falls onto Democrats as their patriotic duty to nuke the filibuster next time they take power.
It takes 60 votes to implement healthcare and 50 to take it away, fuck this.
It takes 60 votes to implement healthcare and 50 to take it away, fuck this.
Yea, it's pretty fucked up.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Isn't it way more than 7? I though it was around 15?
Yes. Cannot be emphasized enough. McConnell is killing the fillibuster just by pursuing this route. Don't care if it passes or not. Nuking is now a litmus test in all reliable Dem seats.
Nuking it's really a litmus test for a Pres.
TestOfTide
Banned
No, it's not just democrats that the ACA has become more popular with. It's more popular with independents and even some republicans as well.
And the main reason is because people started learning what the republicans were planning for the replacement.
I'm not expecting them to learn buy doing research online before the repeal happens. I'm expecting them to learn when the suddenly see their healthcare get a lot fucking worse and they inevitably will look into why because they have no other option.
"Oh my god, my Senator voted to allow Healthcare Companies to not cover this important shit? Fuck that piece of garbage."
Well here's some reasons to not be so pessimistic:
1) 2006 and 2008 happened not too long ago, proving that when republicans directly hurt people they do actually vote for democrats sometimes
2) Fox News and Breitbart are losing ratings, proving that sucking up to an unpopular republican president doesn't actually work
3) Blue-ward swings HAVE been happening in recent elections even if the republicans still won
4) Dems actually did pretty damn well in 2012
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Dumb question, but with the "nuclear option" is whatever was nuked ever reinstated? Like, does confirming a supreme court justice only require 50 votes forever now?
Aaron Strife
Banned
It can be, but the majority party had to do it and why would they cede any power?
Honk for every time you hear the word "vindicated".
timetokill
Banned
Watching or listening to Fox these days is like the Rick and Morty thing where you're getting signal from another dimension
AntraxSuicide
Banned
The first part isn't true. Blood red states like Arkansas have seen big jumps in approval and angry constituents.
And it's probably not going to flip Congress to 80% blue but it will get people primaried, which to them is the same thing. They don't care about an ideology enough to be content with losing their seats to other Republicans. It's all a lost seat.
Atomic Playboy
Member
Out of concern that they're about to lose an election. Nuke filibuster, go on a bad legislation spree, when you're about to lose seats you reinstate filibuster so political opposition can't do the same to you. The ultimate power play. And if you retain power, you can always just nuke the filibuster again. It's foolproof.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Anyone talk about this anti-AHCA ad because damn it is SAVAGE:
https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/872919311052029952
https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/872919311052029952
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
At a certain point we're all going to have to ask ourselves how many of our country's fundamental processes we really want to be thrown away forever.
Getting rid of the legislative filibuster is the end of the US Senate as it has existed for many, many years.
I'm not saying don't do it, I'm saying there will always be another roadblock to tear up when you don't get your way, and eventually you have to say "enough is enough" or you will be left with nothing.
Personally, most of this depends on what happens in 2018-2020.
If the Republican party takes hits but is still overall the same people, fuck it. Tear it all down and see what happens, but don't deal with these people.
If between 2018 and 2020 there is such a large blue wave that the substance of the GOP establishment is wiped out and a new wave of younger Republicans begins to run for office, campaigning on and asking for a fresh start? An end to the hyperpartisan madness? In that hypothetical I think we really ought to consider calling a truce, as it were.
Aaron Strife
Banned
But the new majority party can just nuke the filibuster again and repeal your terrible legislation. It's the exact opposite of foolproof.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
YEYEYEYEYEYEYAHAHAYAHWWOOOGHPOOOOHOAOAOFUKITYYEH
I don't have a link on hand, but I was just reading literally yesterday that the boost in support for ACA has come from Ds and Is, not Rs.
I'm not saying Dems can't win the House next year or anything like that, but I do think many of those wins are coming from moderate districts where Hillary won or Trump barely won. Not the blood-red rural areas -- districts or states -- that are most heavily reliant on the ACA and Medicaid.
I'm not being pessimistic about Dems' electoral chances, about how we'll never win the majority again or any nonsense like that. What I am saying is I don't see a rollback in Medicaid prompting West Virginia voters to suddenly elect Dems (save for Manchin) to the House or Senate.
Yeah, that's exactly the thought process I don't see happening. It'll be more along the lines of, "my senator voted to allow healthcare companies to not cover this important shit? ...well, he's done good things I like too, and he's not a baby killer, so..." followed by a vote for the R.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
It is extremely easy to google "aca opinion polling" and you will see a number of reports that verify exactly what I claimed.
Aaron Strife
Banned
There absolutely will be people who think that, but they're not who we need to win. People who voted Obama, then Trump aren't going to be swayed by baby killer rhetoric.
TestOfTide
Banned
That's not how voters vote. Like yes that is how Trump's hardcore fanbase will vote, but literally everyone else will be very fucking pissed that their senator voted to fuck over their healthcare directly.
I mean, the short answer is "the patient is already dead"
McConnell defied his constitutional obligation to advise and consent. The entire caucus showed they were willing to Nuke when it was convenient for them. We have two separate standards of vote thresholds for Democrats and Republicans now. Why work to reanimate a corpse?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Republicans nuked the blue slip filibuster for district court and appeals court appointments for Bush. Democrats put it back in place for Obama. And now Republicans nuked it again for Trump. So it is possible to put it back, but very stupid.
The nuke is the metaphor because mutually assured destruction is the only thing that keeps the rule in place. The majority party has to be afraid of what it will be like in the minority without that protection, and trust the minority party will have that fear as well when they get the majority. Once you nuke, you lose that trust.
So what happens now after Comey's testimony? Doesn't seem to be anything actionable. Fox News is touting everything Clinton to Trump supporters.
Unfortunately, it look like tomorrow we'll go right back to same old Trump, same old Republican leadership. It sucks but that seems to be life in Trump's America now.
Unfortunately, it look like tomorrow we'll go right back to same old Trump, same old Republican leadership. It sucks but that seems to be life in Trump's America now.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Nothing was ever going to happen immediately, but it gets added to Mueller's case which is a criminal one, as confirmed yesterday.
It's time to gear up for the AHCA. The Republican Congress won't do anything to Trump.
whyamihere
Banned
BBC election poll:
Tories may lose. Or at least have to form a minority government.
Tories may lose. Or at least have to form a minority government.
BBC election poll:
Tories may lose. Or at least have to form a minority government.
Coalition with the DUP with Ian Paisley, Jr. as prime minister
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
BERNIE KISS OF LIFE
whyamihere
Banned
Not enough seats.
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