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[Teggy]

Josh Barro‏Verified account

If Republicans go with a Medicaid "glide path" through 2027, they set up Medicaid funding to be a dominant issue in the next *six* elections

As Medicaid march phases out, Dems will point to hospital closings, state budget crises, coverage cuts, blame it all on GOP.

.

 

[kirblar]

I think Trump (and his unpopularity in Europe) may have been a contributing reason for the snap elections, since the longer his presidency and campaign's ties to Brexit and Farage lingered, the worse it'd get back.

Meh. Clintonverse would have its own problems, like the fact that we couldn't have flipped the House even if we might've tied the Senate (a world where Clinton narrowly won on election night is a world where we probably tossed Toomey and Ron Johnson too), and the Senate would already be debating articles of impeachment tossed over from Paul Ryan while Trump TV fomented a toxic wave election in 2018 and the Democrats' decade-long slide from power at lower levels only got worse.

Plus side is Gorsuch wouldn't have been seated and we'd still be in the Paris Accords, but it would be a tenuous situation.

Republicans winning in 2016 was probably the best thing for the future of the Democratic Party overall. Unfortunately we ended up with the Orange Menace being that Republican.

Yup. There's a good chance that if Hillary wins, we don't reset the pendulum, and we get another 4 years of toxic buildup that gives an actual competent GOP politician even more power than Trump should have right now.

Living long enough to see the cycles happen is...darkly illuminating.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Okay this settles it. In 2020 let's just run a competent socialist and win everything.

We ran an incompetent one and it's still going okay!

 

[pigeon]

Where are we going to find one of those?

Now that we know there's a demand we can just start producing them.

We ran an incompetent one and it's still going okay!

That's my point. Imagine if Corbyn had actual socialist policies or a decent staff! He could be winning 400 seats right now.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

That's my point. Imagine if Corbyn had actual socialist policies or a decent staff! He could be winning 400 seats right now.

Benoit Hamon is a very competent socialist and was completely ignored in France. The consistent thread between Trump, Sanders, Macron, and now Corbyn is that people want someone outside the system. Things like experience and establishment credibility seem to hurt more than help.

 

[War Peaceman]

Benoit Hamon is a very competent socialist and was completely ignored in France. The consistent thread between Trump, Sanders, Macron, and now Corbyn is that people want someone outside the system. Things like experience and establishment credibility seem to hurt more than help.

I think there is an additional element - honesty. People enjoy straight shooters. People are fed up of political lies, even if the things they are saying aren't what they want to hear. Trump even has this although you'll never get anyone to understand how.

 

[Bronx-Man]

I think Al Franken could be rebranded into a Bernie/Corbyn type.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think Al Franken could be rebranded into a Bernie/Corbyn type.

No. He doesn't believe. You can't rebrand someone into something. Corbyn and Sanders have been Corbyn and Sanders for decades.

Just rerun Sanders at this point tbh, he was always a better Corbyn.

 

[kadotsu]

I think Al Franken could be rebranded into a Bernie/Corbyn type.

I think I'm not prepared to hear the non-dogwhistles the GOP media will throw at him.

 

[Gruco]

Just vote for the person who excites you and aligns with your policy views and that you think would be good at the job. jeez.

Spoiler

The answer is Chris Murphy

 

[Bronx-Man]

No. He doesn't believe. You can't rebrand someone into something. Corbyn and Sanders have been Corbyn and Sanders for decades.

Just rerun Sanders at this point tbh, he was always a better Corbyn.

Bernie's gonna be 80 in 2020, my comrade. That dream is over.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Now that we know there's a demand we can just start producing them.

You know, that's pretty much exactly what I told you on the PoliGAF Discord on election night and you immediately banned me.

 

[Ryuuroden]

Man trump is helping me register friends and acquaintances in Ohio. I set a goal of getting 100 never voters to realize they should vote and vote democrat after last years elections. All these people are very liberal but don't believe in voting for various stupid reasons. I am already up to 24 people now who have now registered to vote for 2018. Everyone is just noping the fuck out about 2016. Many of the people I've convinced I have been trying to convince with no success for 10plus years. 100 voters was a pipe dream but I think its possible now. Many of us are in the split districts around columbus which were gerrymandered to be safe republican but they have flipped before (2006)

 

[benicillin]

There is too much going on today, my heart can't actually handle Comey and then Sessions and now the UK race.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Bernie's gonna be 80 in 2020, my comrade. That dream is over.

Sounds like we need a LIBERAL ICON.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Bernie's gonna be 80 in 2020, my comrade. That dream is over.

Gladstone was like a billion years old and was still one of the greatest UK PMs of all time.

 

[Teggy]

What is this about Boris Johnson becoming PM? Wouldn't that be worse than May?

 

[Ryuuroden]

No. He doesn't believe. You can't rebrand someone into something. Corbyn and Sanders have been Corbyn and Sanders for decades.

Just rerun Sanders at this point tbh, he was always a better Corbyn.

Trump is going to poison the old person well methinks. Dat dementia.

 

[~Kinggi~]

There is too much going on today, my heart can't actually handle Comey and then Sessions and now the UK race.

pretty wild!

 

[Gruco]

What if the lesson of the UK is that it doesn't matter whether you run any old nutter when an electorate is experiencing buyer's remorse, and doesn't speak to the issue of socialism at all? Milliband woulda won! Gordon Brown woulda won!

 

[Deleted member 231381]

What if the lesson of the UK is that it doesn't matter whether you run any old nutter when an electorate is experiencing buyer's remorse, and doesn't speak to the issue of socialism at all? Milliband woulda won!

This is just bollocks. Look at the UK polls a month and a half ago. May had a 23(!!!) point lead. Now look at the present results. Corbyn's done a lot of things wrong (a lot), but his campaign has been superb. There's no relevant analogy in UK postwar history for the kind of turnaround he achieved. There was no buyer's remorse - May's popularity figures, again only a month and a half ago, had her as the most popular premier in decades. Instead, Labour persuaded huge numbers of people of their values - Labour values.

 

[Wilsongt]

I wish the GOP cared more about Russia messing with elections. Comey basically told them they would be back, and they would target who ever would benefit them more.

They are just sitting pretty and are okay with it because they are in power.

it would be a shame if Russia decided to knock off their covfefe horses.

Spoiler

No it wouldn't. Please do it, Russia.

 

[Random Human]

This is just bollocks. Look at the UK polls a month and a half ago. May had a 23(!!!) point lead. Now look at the present results. Corbyn's done a lot of things wrong (a lot), but his campaign has been superb. There's no relevant analogy in UK postwar history for the kind of turnaround he achieved. There was no buyer's remorse - May's popularity figures, again only a month and a half ago, had her as the most popular premier in decades. Instead, Labour persuaded huge numbers of people of their values - Labour values.

This is also close to how the Liberals went from third place to majority government in Canada. Democrats need to study these elections. Values + some charisma and you're gold. Throw in some memes and you've got a stew going.

 

[Gruco]

This is just bollocks. Look at the UK polls a month and a half ago. May had a 23(!!!) point lead. Now look at the present results. Corbyn's done a lot of things wrong (a lot), but his campaign has been superb. There's no relevant analogy in UK postwar history for the kind of turnaround he achieved. There was no buyer's remorse - May's popularity figures, again only a month and a half ago, had her as the most popular premier in decades. Instead, Labour persuaded huge numbers of people of their values - Labour values.

I mean, the point I am making is that it's really hard to draw hard conclusions in any situation like this. I also want to emphasize that I don't know shit about UK politics.

That being said May has never been elected before so there is no proper analogue for her campaign baseline. I seem to recall a candidate in another recent election having high approvals that dropped the second election season hit.

Obama was a great politician and ran a great campaign. I also think basically anyone could have beaten McCain that year.

What gives you confidence that you can see the counterfactual here?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

This is like bizarro 2016

 

[Roland_Gunner]

This is just bollocks. Look at the UK polls a month and a half ago. May had a 23(!!!) point lead. Now look at the present results. Corbyn's done a lot of things wrong (a lot), but his campaign has been superb. There's no relevant analogy in UK postwar history for the kind of turnaround he achieved. There was no buyer's remorse - May's popularity figures, again only a month and a half ago, had her as the most popular premier in decades. Instead, Labour persuaded huge numbers of people of their values - Labour values.

Good lord, you don't handle alternative interpretations of data well. This little rant neatly elides that in the last 45 days May has had a near continuous series of blunders including the 'dementia tax' proposal and promising to use the Manchester terror attacks to take away basic civil rights. Corbyn and Labor have run a very good campaign but pretending that May is a titan of British politics when she was really George Bush after the Iraq war is deeply misleading.

 

[kirblar]

This is just bollocks. Look at the UK polls a month and a half ago. May had a 23(!!!) point lead. Now look at the present results. Corbyn's done a lot of things wrong (a lot), but his campaign has been superb. There's no relevant analogy in UK postwar history for the kind of turnaround he achieved. There was no buyer's remorse - May's popularity figures, again only a month and a half ago, had her as the most popular premier in decades. Instead, Labour persuaded huge numbers of people of their values - Labour values.

It's very hard to credit Corbyn when May's out there literally promising to use terrorism as an excuse to get rid of human rights.

 

[Crocodile]

I would pay a decent sum to not have Sanders run in 2020. I don't feel he has improved at all as a politician since 2016 or tuned around the things I didn't like about him and I'm getting a little worried about the drop in the Black vote last year. I don't feel he would do well to correct that at all. I'd much rather have Warren (but then again I know the GOP is prepping for her so that leaves me concerned).

Man trump is helping me register friends and acquaintances in Ohio. I set a goal of getting 100 never voters to realize they should vote and vote democrat after last years elections. All these people are very liberal but don't believe in voting for various stupid reasons. I am already up to 24 people now who have now registered to vote for 2018. Everyone is just noping the fuck out about 2016. Many of the people I've convinced I have been trying to convince with no success for 10plus years. 100 voters was a pipe dream but I think its possible now. Many of us are in the split districts around columbus which were gerrymandered to be safe republican but they have flipped before (2006)

I'll be leaving Ohio in a few months but I feel slightly bad because Brown could use my vote way more than Gillibrand next year. Not sure how to feel but I can't stay here any longer if I don't get a new job.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Good lord, you don't handle alternative interpretations of data well. This little rant neatly elides that in the last 45 days May has had a near continuous series of blunders including the 'dementia tax' proposal and promising to use the Manchester terror attacks to take away basic civil rights. Corbyn and Labor have run a very good campaign but pretending that May is a titan of British politics when she was really George Bush after the Iraq war is deeply misleading.

Using the Manchester terror attacks to take away basic civil rights was a) not commented on much here and b) was actually pretty popular, as distasteful as this forum might find it. On net, it was a vote-winner. Labour isn't winning because they went liberal on civil rights - Corbyn is promising stronger police, for example. The dementia tax was a slip-up, but made a slip-up because of Labour's manifesto. If Labour had followed the Dilnot proposals, there would have been barely a gap between the two parties.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Mistaking outcome for process?

Theresa May was shit and really the UK seems less insurmountably polarized.

A cumrag will win almost half the vote in Murica for either side.

 

[kirblar]

Warren has the charisma of a warm loaf of bread.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

I think there is an additional element - honesty. People enjoy straight shooters. People are fed up of political lies, even if the things they are saying aren't what they want to hear. Trump even has this although you'll never get anyone to understand how.

People don't want honesty, they want good liars

 

[Teggy]

Warren has the charisma of a warm loaf of bread.

Perhaps that's what people will want after this mess.

 

[Mizerman]

I would pay a decent sum to not have Sanders run in 2020. I don't feel he has improved at all as a politician since 2016 or tuned around the things I didn't like about him and I'm getting a little worried about the drop in the Black vote last year. I don't feel he would do well to correct that at all. I'd much rather have Warren (but then again I know the GOP is prepping for her so that leaves me concerned).

Yeah, Sanders inspires no excitement from me and I see no reason why I should support him.

 

[Gruco]

Mistaking outcome for process?

Theresa May was shit and really the UK seems less insurmountably polarized.

A cumrag will win almost half the vote in Murica for either side.

If only there were some sort of Latin expression to describe the fallacy of seeing a low powered correlation with multiple sources of variation and attributing causality to one specific issue.

 

[kirblar]

People don't want honesty, they want good liars

/|\ /|\ /|\

"Keeping it real" will always go wrong. What people say they want isn't what they actually want.

 

[Hindl]

People wanting a miniseries about the Trump candidacy/Presidency are thinking too small. There needs to be a multi-season series about 2015 on. Make it like Game of Thrones with multiple storylines around the world. Start with the origins of candidate Trump and the formations of the Brexit movement along with Russia starting to flex more muscle. Move into 2016 with the rise of fake news, Brexit, 2016 election, the far right making gains in Europe and so on. Then show 2017 on where Europe started self-correcting and moving away from the far right, and the US (hopefully) started waking up and fixing their mistakes

 

[NeoXChaos]

I think there is an additional element - honesty. People enjoy straight shooters. People are fed up of political lies, even if the things they are saying aren't what they want to hear. Trump even has this although you'll never get anyone to understand how.

??

Trump lied his way into the White House promising the moon. Bernie Sanders did the same thing in the primary.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

No matter what you think of the future of the glorious socialist revolution, this is a disaster for Trump. England was just about the only democratic country that his administration has any kind of relationship with at all. We can be happy about that, right?

 

[Fenderputty]

Warren has the charisma of a warm loaf of bread.

Sourdough got flare yo

 

[wutwutwut]

People don't want honesty, they want good liars

Yeah, people want leaders that feel honest. A leader who's actually honest would tell coal miners their jobs are never coming back.

 

[sphagnum]

If Corbyn wins there's no way the left wing of the Dems will stand down in the next primaries

How long until we start playing The Internationale at speeches brehs

 

[kess]

Corbyn is kind of having his cake and eating it, holding onto many working class areas and gaining in London. The youth vote has come out for Labour. That's very significant, and I don't think Miliband would have pulled off the same result.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

If Corbyn wins there's no way the left wing of the Dems will stand down in the next primaries

How long until we start playing The Internationale at speeches brehs

The Internationale has always been played at speeches, comrade.

 

[pigeon]

If Corbyn wins there's no way the left wing of the Dems will stand down in the next primaries

How long until we start playing The Internationale at speeches brehs

I mean, now that Corbyn is winning, there's no reason the left wing should stand down.

Sanders just sucks and should be replaced by a likeable, young socialist of color instead.

 

[Gruco]

??

Trump lied his way into the White House promising the moon. Bernie Sanders did the same thing in the primary.

There were more similarities between the candidates. Both were big fans of scapegoating. Both have an instinct which push them to pick fights and make enemies out of friends. Neither was a big fan of any kind of nuance. Probably a good reason there was so much overlap, in the grand scheme of things.

It turns out, these qualities don't serve a president well.

 

[TestOfTide]

This is just bollocks. Look at the UK polls a month and a half ago. May had a 23(!!!) point lead. Now look at the present results. Corbyn's done a lot of things wrong (a lot), but his campaign has been superb. There's no relevant analogy in UK postwar history for the kind of turnaround he achieved. There was no buyer's remorse - May's popularity figures, again only a month and a half ago, had her as the most popular premier in decades. Instead, Labour persuaded huge numbers of people of their values - Labour values.

I will happily give Corbyn some Credit, especially for his clever response to the terrosist attacks (he brought up the fact that Saudi Arabia has been feeding terrorism).

But it's clearly more than just that. What we are seeing has been a VERY clear trend across the western world where 2015-2016 were years in which Neo-facism and the far-right were on the rise and 2017 has so far been a year where the western world has said "wait a minute. fuck that I don't want Neo-fascim or far-right government".

If Corbyn wins there's no way the left wing of the Dems will stand down in the next primaries

How long until we start playing The Internationale at speeches brehs

Except that's just one election. Macron's party is still about to do much better than the Socialist party in France.

 

[Kevinroc]

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/polit...pport-medicaid-expansion-phase-out/382427001/

Heller is getting defensive about supporting repealing the medicaid expansion and won't confirm it to a local paper.

When asked to either confirm or clarify what the senator told reporters at the Capitol, Heller spokesperson Megan Taylor asked if the Reno Gazette-Journal was “really doing a story on a false narrative the Democrats are pushing?”

She did not respond to questions about what information she considered was coming from Democrats, whether that be the report in The Hill or the senator’s own words.

She also declined to confirm if the senator said he was fine with a seven-year phase out of the program's expansion, which is being pushed by other Republican senators.

“Senator Heller has been working to ensure whatever health care bill is drafted in the Senate works for Medicaid expansion states,” Taylor said in an email statement. “This is just one of many policy options that is being discussed along with additional transition relief (i.e. growth rates) to ensure that the rug is not pulled out from underneath Nevadans and the more than 200,000 Nevadans who received insurance for the first time under Medicaid expansion.”

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I will happily give Corbyn some Credit, especially for his clever response to the terrosist attacks (he brought up the fact that Saudi Arabia has been feeding terrorism).

But it's clearly more than just that. What we are seeing has been a VERY clear trend across the western world where 2015-2016 were years in which Neo-facism and the far-right were on the rise and 2017 has so far been a year where the western world has said "wait a minute. fuck that I don't want Neo-fascim or far-right government".

this comparison doesn't really make sense though

Macron won by consolidating the anti-Le Pen vote but turnout was way down

Corbyn's done really well by getting turnout high with the kids

 

[sphagnum]

I mean, now that Corbyn is winning, there's no reason the left wing should stand down.

Sanders just sucks and should be replaced by a likeable, young socialist of color instead.

We need to get Kshama Sawant onto the national stage ASAP