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[kirblar]

I will happily give Corbyn some Credit, especially for his clever response to the terrosist attacks (he brought up the fact that Saudi Arabia has been feeding terrorism).

But it's clearly more than just that. What we are seeing has been a VERY clear trend across the western world where 2015-2016 were years in which Neo-facism and the far-right were on the rise and 2017 has so far been a year where the western world has said "wait a minute. fuck that I don't want Neo-fascim or far-right government".

Bascially, this.

Far-right populism going crazy w/ political gains after economic crises is normal. But at some point, the far righters actually get power, over reach, and the house of cards falls apart because they are fucking stupid.

Trump appears to have been that zenith of idiocy, as the Macro/UK elections are showing.

 

[TestOfTide]

this comparison doesn't really make sense though

Macron won by consolidating the anti-Le Pen vote but turnout was way down

Corbyn's done really well by getting turnout high with the kids

Right, but my point remains the same that the general theme of all these elections this year is backlash against the far-right.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It's too bad the US doesn't have a system where over confident Republicans can call for a new election to gain more seats only to end up having it completely backfire.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Right, but my point remains the same that the general theme of all these elections this year is backlash against the far-right.

May's not far-right. I don't like her, but she's not far-right.

This election isn't Macron vs. Le Pen. It's Melenchon vs. Fillon. They're very different looking elections.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

This is an interesting article by the New York Times.
Comey: Hero, Villain and Shakespearean Character Who Lived Up to Hype

WASHINGTON — On the 140th day of the Trump presidency — one for each allotted character on the executive Twitter feed that stayed conspicuously silent all Thursday morning — a very tall man with a very strange place in this very bewildering moment in American history strolled into Hart Senate Office Building 216, shot a quick glance at the masses arrayed behind him and presented a seen-it-all city with something unusual.

 

[Ogodei]

It's too bad the US doesn't have a system where over confident Republicans can call for a new election to gain more seats only to end up having it completely backfire.

But there are also clearly times when we demand a redo. The fixed schedule does not reflect political reality, but the British system for Fixed Term Parliaments works pretty well (though i'd shorten it to a 4-year cycle).

 

[sphagnum]

I will happily give Corbyn some Credit, especially for his clever response to the terrosist attacks (he brought up the fact that Saudi Arabia has been feeding terrorism).

But it's clearly more than just that. What we are seeing has been a VERY clear trend across the western world where 2015-2016 were years in which Neo-facism and the far-right were on the rise and 2017 has so far been a year where the western world has said "wait a minute. fuck that I don't want Neo-fascim or far-right government".



Except that's just one election. Macron's party is still about to do much better than the Socialist party in France.

Right, but I'm saying that Sanders voters will be re-energized by Corbyn showing that it's possible, however unlikely.

We need someone who can capture that crowd who also shows strong support for civil rights in a way that Bernie failed to do. A socialist BLM activist or someone like that would be a grand slam. They'd be the most smeared candidate ever in the general though.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I mean, now that Corbyn is winning, there's no reason the left wing should stand down.

Sanders just sucks and should be replaced by a likeable, young socialist of color instead.

Keith Ellison?

 

[kess]

Bascially, this.

Far-right populism going crazy w/ political gains after economic crises is normal. But at some point, the far righters actually get power, over reach, and the house of cards falls apart because they are fucking stupid.

Trump appears to have been that zenith of idiocy, as the Macro/UK elections are showing.

Trump isn't even a good fascist, his messaging immediately fractured after the election and he is quite obviously enriching his oligarchic clique without real concession to his voters, whom he obviously holds in contempt.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Sanders is a bad politician who wanted to raise taxes on the rich and middle class alike. He'd be DOA in a general election.

I keep saying it but...Obama received plenty of donations and support from Goldman Sachs and it didn't matter to anyone. In a bizzaro world where young Obama ran in 2016 instead of 2008 he'd still win the nomination handily. If you're charismatic, talented, hit enough buttons, and have a great team you're going to do well.

Cory Booker has corporate ties up to his nipples....it's not going to stop him from standing out on a debate stage, and winning solid support. Kamala Harris has ties to the police...it's not going to stop her from doing the same. Winning the democrat nomination is about building a coalition of voters. Black voters in the south, young voters, Iowans, whatever. Sell your story effectively and people will follow.

None of the candidates who run in 2019/2020 will have decades worth of public baggage dragging them down. Nearly each of the best candidates will be more charismatic and a significantly better public speaker than Hillary Clinton. I simply don't believe that 2016 is an indictment on corporations or money...it's an indictment on one candidate, and a process that wasn't competitive whatsoever.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

this comparison doesn't really make sense though

Macron won by consolidating the anti-Le Pen vote but turnout was way down

Corbyn's done really well by getting turnout high with the kids

Just like last year there a lot of factors at work here. Labour is winning hugely in areas like London that are going to be hurt by Brexit, while they're actually losing some ground in the post-industrial northeast. Again, Corbyn ran a great campaign and exploited some weaknesses in May that weren't apparent even a month ago but you can't reduce the election to one theme like that.

 

[kirblar]

Trump isn't even a good fascist, his messaging immediately fractured after the election and he is quite obviously enriching his oligarchic clique without real concession to his voters, whom he obviously holds in contempt.

Oh of course not. He's incapable of actually governing.

This was part of where the McArdle argument in 2016 of "Clinton losing is better in the long run even though in the short term it will suck". The two big components-

a) You reset the pendulum, preventing a GOP blowout in 2020 that leads to mass gerrymandering
b) Trump is going to be shitty, but he's going to be spectacularly ineffective compared to the hypothetical mainstream GOP alternative who likely takes office in 2020.

At the time I read it and thought "This does make sense, from an icy cold-hearted place of political rationality... but it's fucking idiot Trump and we need to make sure the ACA sticks." Now, we're actually living through the dark counterfactual we thought we weren't going to see, and it's pretty-dead on so far. Only thing missing? A recession, which we're kinda due for.

 

[TestOfTide]

May's not far-right. I don't like her, but she's not far-right.

This election isn't Macron vs. Le Pen. It's Melenchon vs. Fillon. They're very different looking elections.

May isn't AS far right as Le Pen, but she has absolutely been trying to appeal to UKIP and Brexit voters all the same. In other words she was moving hard to the right. She has been trying to ride on the same fucking wave that Brexit and Trump rode on, but the problem is that 2017 has been a backlash against that wave.

Right, but I'm saying that Sanders voters will be re-energized by Corbyn showing that it's possible, however unlikely.

We need someone who can capture that crowd who also shows strong support for civil rights in a way that Bernie failed to do. A socialist BLM activist or someone like that would be a grand slam. They'd be the most smeared candidate ever in the general though.

Ok when you word it THAT way I agree.

But what I am trying to say is that 2017 is showing us that BOTH Corbyn types and Macron types can win in this backlash against the far right, but to win you need to capitalize on the fact that this it about backlash against the far-right.

 

[pigeon]

Keith Ellison?

Sounds good to me.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Sounds good to me.

has anyone asked how he feels about cars yet

 

[Gruco]

Keith Ellison?

now watch Tom Perez come after him in the primary

 

[TestOfTide]

Only thing missing? A recession, which we're kinda due for.

Well the AHCA is absolutely going to lead to a bubble pop.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

May isn't AS far right as Le Pen, but she has absolutely been trying to appeal to UKIP and Brexit voters all the same. In other words she was moving hard to the right. She has been trying to ride on the same fucking wave that Brexit and Trump rode on, but the problem is that 2017 has been a backlash against that wave.

So are Labour. Labour have been explicitly pro-Brexit. It looks like about 40% of 2017 Lab voters will have been Leave voters. This is not a pro-Brexit/anti-Brexit election or a backlash against May's Brexit stance. Labour is doing well precisely because they've managed to get back far more former UKIP voters than anyone expected.

Or, put another way: Corbyn made very careful efforts not to alienate what are the UK equivalent of Obama -> Trump voters. It has paid off.

 

[kirblar]

Well the AHCA is absolutely going to lead to a bubble pop.

People's health care premiums exploding along w/ the markets might as well be one, yeah.

 

[kess]

Oh of course not. He's incapable of actually governing.

This was part of where the McArdle argument in 2016 of "Clinton losing is better in the long run even though in the short term it will suck". The two big components-

a) You reset the pendulum, preventing a GOP blowout in 2020 that leads to mass gerrymandering
b) Trump is going to be shitty, but he's going to be spectacularly ineffective compared to the hypothetical mainstream GOP alternative who likely takes office in 2020.

At the time I read it and thought "This does make sense, from an icy cold-hearted place of political rationality... but it's fucking idiot Trump and we need to make sure the ACA sticks." Now, we're actually living through the dark counterfactual we thought we weren't going to see, and it's pretty-dead on so far. Only thing missing? A recession, which we're kinda due for.

What McArdle was hypothesizing was very similar to the logic in 2000 that held that Bush would be such a fuck up that the Democrats would gain in '02 and '04. Eventually, the pendulum did swing and Obama became president, but I'm not sure the world is better having gone through all that.

 

[Teggy]

Dumb as a rock

 

[pigeon]

has anyone asked how he feels about cars yet

Look man, the revolution will take time

 

[Wilsongt]

Hannity should be a gas tonight.

 

[kirblar]

What McArdle was hypothesizing was very similar to the logic in 2000 that held that Bush would be such a fuck up that the Democrats would gain in '02 and '04. Eventually, the pendulum did swing and Obama became president, but I'm not sure the world is better having gone through all that.

I think the difference would be the "competency" part. Everything we saw out of Trump suggested he would be spectacularly awful as an executive, and that's panning out. None of that was present w/ Dubya. He was spectacularly incompetent...but not in the ways that murdify your party politically and give you a Jimmy Carter presidency.

 

[TestOfTide]

So are Labour. Labour have been explicitly pro-Brexit. It looks like about 40% of 2017 Lab voters will have been Leave voters. This is not a pro-Brexit/anti-Brexit election or a backlash against May's Brexit stance. Labour is doing well precisely because they've managed to get back far more former UKIP voters than anyone expected.

Or, put another way: Corbyn made very careful efforts not to alienate what are the UK equivalent of Obama -> Trump voters. It has paid off.

Again, 2016 was a year in which the far-right movements got a lot of momentum.

2017 was the wake-up call for a lot of people. Labour might not have been explicitly anti-brexit, but they were explicitly anti-Tory at a time when the Tories were doing everything they could to suck up to UKIP and Brexit types.

What McArdle was hypothesizing was very similar to the logic in 2000 that held that Bush would be such a fuck up that the Democrats would gain in '02 and '04. Eventually, the pendulum did swing and Obama became president, but I'm not sure the world is better having gone through all that.

The difference there is Bush got a huge boost for his response to 9/11 whereas Trump has shown he wouldn't give any decent response to something like 9/11.

 

[royalan]

Sanders is a bad politician who wanted to raise taxes on the rich and middle class alike. He'd be DOA in a general election.

I keep saying it but...Obama received plenty of donations and support from Goldman Sachs and it didn't matter to anyone. In a bizzaro world where young Obama ran in 2016 instead of 2008 he'd still win the nomination handily. If you're charismatic, talented, hit enough buttons, and have a great team you're going to do well.

Cory Booker has corporate ties up to his nipples....it's not going to stop him from standing out on a debate stage, and winning solid support. Kamala Harris has ties to the police...it's not going to stop her from doing the same. Winning the democrat nomination is about building a coalition of voters. Black voters in the south, young voters, Iowans, whatever. Sell your story effectively and people will follow.

None of the candidates who run in 2019/2020 will have decades worth of public baggage dragging them down. Nearly each of the best candidates will be more charismatic and a significantly better public speaker than Hillary Clinton. I simply don't believe that 2016 is an indictment on corporations or money...it's an indictment on one candidate, and a process that wasn't competitive whatsoever.

Hate to say it, but I absolutely agree. Every word, but especially the bold. Effective campaigning is about telling a story that resonates. And being able to sell that story.

Sanders had a story to tell, but it only resonated with specific contingent of voters.

Obama's story reached everyone. And his experience in the black church gave him the ability to sell it with pathos. It made people overlook shortcomings that would have been insurmountable for a traditional politician on the left.

Pathos at the pulpit needs to be the #1 quality Democrats seek out going forward.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Again, 2016 was a year in which the far-right movements got a lot of momentum.

2017 was the wake-up call for a lot of people. Labour might not have been explicitly anti-brexit, but they were explicitly anti-Tory at a time when the Tories were doing everything they could to suck up to UKIP and Brexit types.

Labour also sucked up to these votes.

They are doing so well because they brought former Labour 'kippers back to Labour again.

Your analysis is just factually wrong. This is not a differences of opinions thing, the data literally says: you are wrong.

 

[Teggy]

Uh oh

Taniel @Taniel

BBC updates forecast to Tories at 32. That'd setback for May, but not enough: enough for majority with support from Northern Ireland's DUP.

 

[kirblar]

Here's that study on RW waves post-financial crises against- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1323717&highlight=

The one silver lining buried in this depressing study? Right-wing populism may already have peaked. The researchers find that the political effects they document diminish over time, generally reverting back to pre-crisis conditions about 10 years after a crisis.

I wouldn’t exactly set your watches yet, but the latest global financial crisis began about nine years ago.

 

[Host Samurai]

Trump supporters on CNN are so fucking dumb. There is no saving them

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The UK right now

 

[sphagnum]

Keith Ellison is Muslim, he can't win unfortunately.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Keith Ellison is Muslim, he can't win unfortunately.

hold the reality for tomorrow jeez

 

[royalan]

Keith Ellison is Muslim, he can't win unfortunately.

He's also not a very good speaker.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Lol eat shit Nick Clegg

 

[pigeon]

Keith Ellison is Muslim, he can't win unfortunately.

Actually that seems like the perfect candidate to run against Trump.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Hannity should be a gaslighting tonight.

Adjusted for accuracy.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

And if you wanted confirmation UK's election is not about urban city liberalism vs rural shire conservatism, Nick Clegg just lost his seat.

 

[Zereta]

He's also not a very good speaker.

What you talking about? He's pretty good when I've heard him speak, particularly when next to Tom Perez.

Maybe that's it.

 

[Plinko]

He's also not a very good speaker.

This is the key problem right here.

 

[jack_package_200]

I guess I misjudged Jeremy Corbyn and the efforts of current labour party.

Hopefully we can mobilize come 2018

 

[sphagnum]

Actually that seems like the perfect candidate to run against Trump.

Well we elected a black guy and then a reality show fascist and we all thought that was impossible so who know what's possible anymore

 

[Wilsongt]

So a quick summary of what happened in the UK for those of us who don't follow it?

Did the good guys or bad guys win?

 

[Gruco]

Well we elected a black guy and then a reality show fascist and we all thought that was impossible so who know what's possible anymore

I, for one, wouldn't hesitate to vote Inanimate Carbon Rod 2020.

 

[aspiegamer]

So a quick summary of what happened in the UK for those of us who don't follow it?

Did the good guys or bad guys win?

The bad guys are going to win, but maybe not with an outright majority (which would still be an extremely humiliating result). Scotland is fucking things up for everyone.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So a quick summary of what happened in the UK for those of us who don't follow it?

Did the good guys or bad guys win?

Very unclear who won overall. It would be safe to say the good guys massively overperformed and the bad guys collapsed.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Keith Ellison?

How did I not think of this before?

 

[shinra-bansho]

May is illiberal more than far-right in the more traditional left-right that I think people are referring in multiple spheres.

 

[Coolluck]

Actually that seems like the perfect candidate to run against Trump.

Not with the polling figures on the Muslim ban.You'd think a woman would have been a perfect candidate against a sexual predator, too.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Actually that seems like the perfect candidate to run against Trump.

You can get very far hating Muslims, but not very far if you are one.