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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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R

royalan

Member
Zereta said:
What you talking about? He's pretty good when I've heard him speak, particularly when next to Tom Perez.

Maybe that's it.
Click to expand...

Ellison speaks in a way that's easy to relate to, but there's a difference between that and being a good speaker. I have yet to see Ellison sell a speech in the same way Obama, Bill Clinton, or even Corey Booker can.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
pigeon said:
I think that argument is looking really bad right now, for a whole lot of reasons. And if running an actual socialist is no worse than on par with running a neoliberal, we should obviously run the socialist.
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Why is that argument looking bad? My entire point is that this case hasn't been made as convincingly people are jumping to.

Rather than saying "wow guess the neoliberal time is over lets just run the socialist now" we could actually just let primary voters in districts based on their preferences and run them in the elections.

Something tells me that we're going to see over the next two years which model is more successful, and we'll have more data for it than people are currently purporting to have!

To the extent I am willing to draw conclusions from 2016 it's that primaries help pick good candidates, and function as a better mechanism than people guessing at what other people want to see.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
For all this talk of resistance, it's Ossoff that might pull of the first flip of the cycle and he's not some Bernie clone.
Click to expand...
/|\

People in metropolitan areas are doing well! Yes, there are lots of issues still, but economically, they don't want to tear the world down, they just want to be able to buy into it.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Gruco said:
Why is that argument looking bad? My entire point is that this case hasn't been made as convincingly people are jumping to.
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Uh, because more aggressively socialist candidates are doing way better than that theory would suggest. That's the whole point.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
You aren't going to sell Bill Clintonism again when mass incarceration still exists, young people can't afford to go to school, the jobs the get don't pay enough to afford homes or pay off student debt if they do go to college, healthcare costs are still out of control and about to get worse.. People aren't getting married or having children at healthy rates because of low income as well. I could go on.

Prospects are getting worse and the American dream is dying. There's seriously no hope amongst young people for the future and they need to be convinced that there is a life other than scrapping by working a shitty retail job.
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Look, I'm not saying we should run someone like Bill Clinton. That's never been my point. I'm just saying that Corbyn is mostly riding on the fact that 2017 has been backlash against conservatives.

pigeon said:
French better than Americans at not wanting to vote for Nazis, having more direct experience with them.

Also the election structure matters. If all the Republicans who didn't want Trump to win had endorsed Hillary instead of endorsing Trump or no-one because we have a two-party system, she would have cruised to victory too.
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Ok, well now that Hillary is out of the picture that shit is going to be a lot easier regardless.

All I am saying is don't assume that there is ONE message that will work across all of America. To get the most out of the coming blue waves you have to individualize shit to the areas.

Oh and will someone PLEASE tell Chris Murphy to stop talking about guns. I like him but it only hurts the image of democrats when a guy like him who has never a touched a gun in his life keeps insisting on talking about guns.

pigeon said:
Uh, because more aggressively socialist candidates are doing way better than that theory would suggest. That's the whole point.
Click to expand...

Except aggressively liberal candidates have been doing way better this year as well, just look at the boosts that have happened to the parties of Macron, Trudeau, and Merkel.

In fact, even looking at the UK election you see the Liberal Dems making surprising gains.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
pigeon said:
Uh, because more aggressively socialist candidates are doing way better than that theory would suggest. That's the whole point.
Click to expand...
Cobyn is, and Bernie never ran in a general election.

Are you cool with drawing super strong conclusions on low N in situations that have a huge number of variables and no causal identification? I am not. That's the whole point.

Appreciate the condescending "Uh" at the beginning of your post, BTW.
 
L

Loxley

Member
ShadowSwordmaster said:
How about after that? I guess the fallout of impeachment is what I mean. We can see that there are some people within the GOP still loyal to Trump.
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That almost depends on how Trump himself would handle being impeached. Since we know there ain't a snowball's chance in hell he would handle it with tact and dignity, would he try to tear apart the GOP on his way out and try to turn his hardcore supporters on the GOP establishment? I can totally see him tweeting "They were all out to get me, they're all corrupt! I never had a chance! GOP ARE AGAINST TRUMP AND THE TRUTH".

In the fantasy world where Trump is successfully impeached, I could see yet another splinter-faction of the GOP being born (like the Tea Party) that is basically the Trump Troll Party (fuck all POC, the LGBT, SJWs, feminists, women in general, Muslims, <3 Russia, etc).
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Gruco said:
Cobyn is, and Bernie never ran in a general election.

Are you cool with drawing super strong conclusions on N=1 in situations that have a huge number of variables and no causal identification? I am not. That's the whole point.
Click to expand...

You're literally drawing a super strong conclusion on N=0! I'm not arguing that socialists would do better. I'm saying that the assumption for literally decades has always been that they'd be guaranteed to do worse. That assumption needs defending, not disproving.

If you think there's no evidence on the question of socialists vs neoliberals, fine. In that case, we should assume they're equally likely to succeed, and run the socialist because they have better policies.

If you think that neoliberals are extremely likely to just be way more successful than socialists, you should be the one to offer evidence!
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
pigeon said:
He literally gained 15 points, what evidence would you need exactly
em.
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The exact same voters elected another more moderate Dem against the exact same candidate 6 months ago. There's tons of evidence that Montana voters will elect a Democrat that resonates with them and Quist didn't.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
pigeon said:
You're literally drawing a super strong conclusion on N=0! I'm not arguing that socialists would do better. I'm saying that the assumption for literally decades has always been that they'd be guaranteed to do worse. That assumption needs defending, not disproving.

If you think there's no evidence on the question of socialists vs neoliberals, fine. In that case, we should assume they're equally likely to succeed, and run the socialist because they have better policies.

If you think that neoliberals are extremely likely to just be way more successful than socialists, you should be the one to offer evidence!
Click to expand...

Are you asking someone to provide evidence while not providing any evidence yourself?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Suikoguy said:
Are you asking someone to provide evidence while not providing any evidence yourself?
Click to expand...

Are you aware that there's an election taking place literally this moment that I am making reference to and that everybody else in the thread already knows about
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
pigeon said:
Are you aware that there's an election taking place literally this moment that I am making reference to and that everybody else in the thread already knows about
Click to expand...

Wait, what election did the US have today?
 
G

Gruco

Banned
pigeon said:
You're literally drawing a super strong conclusion on N=0!
Click to expand...
Tell me more about the super strong conclusion I am drawing on N=0.

I'm not arguing that socialists would do better. I'm saying that the assumption for literally decades has always been that they'd be guaranteed to do worse. That assumption needs defending, not disproving.
Click to expand...
This has not been proven because you don't have a counterfactual. This isn't complicated.

If you think there's no evidence on the question of socialists vs neoliberals, fine. In that case, we should assume they're equally likely to succeed, and run the socialist because they have better policies.
Click to expand...
The bold is my point! Or rather, that we haven't gotten actionable new information about it. I am more than happy to debate on policy.

If you think that neoliberals are extremely likely to just be way more successful than socialists, you should be the one to offer evidence!
Click to expand...
At literally no point did I ever argue that, dude. I have absolutely no idea how you could have interpreted that from my posts.

Like, who are you trying to have an argument with right now?
 
K

kirblar

Member
pigeon said:
Are you aware that there's an election taking place literally this moment that I am making reference to and that everybody else in the thread already knows about
Click to expand...
Yes. They're also not winning, they're coming in a stronger than expected second.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
pigeon said:
Uh, because more aggressively socialist candidates are doing way better than that theory would suggest. That's the whole point.
Click to expand...

I may not have been paying much attention, but were? Unless you are referring to the UK?

The candidates that ran in the US aren't really socialist. At best many of the candidates advocate for expanding welfare( mostly healthcare) and raising the minimum wage, which is something many Democrats have advocated themselves.

I think people worry more about the candidates, then how many different groups will react. How will the upper middle class , businesses, older Americans, conservative Americans that are Democrats, minorities, White Americans, young Americans, the wealthy, moderates, centrist, other liberals etc. You not sealing socialism to liberals or people in the left-wing in general. You are selling socialism to Americans who by and large do not trust the government , do not like large tax increases, and believe in capitalism.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
chadskin said:
https://twitter.com/mawilner/status/873013022557712384

Oooh.
Click to expand...

ncrdWDn.gif
 
G

Gruco

Banned
pigeon said:
Are you aware that there's an election taking place literally this moment that I am making reference to and that everybody else in the thread already knows about
Click to expand...

So, you are cool with drawing super strong conclusions on N=1 in situations that have a huge number of variables and no causal identification?
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Do college graduates and high income people care about Brexit at all? Or just socialism? Asking for a friend.

In other news, labels are stupid and rather than talking about whether neoliberals or socialists are better we should just engage on the substance of policy because otherwise the conversation is too ambiguous and reliant on loaded interpretations.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
That's a terrible graph, because university attendence went up from 10% of the population in 1968 to 52% in 2015. That graph basically says "young vs. old", not "educated vs. not educated".
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Abinash117 said:
I may not have been paying much attention, but were? Unless you are referring to the UK?

The candidates that ran in the US aren't really socialist. At best many of the candidates advocate for expanding welfare( mostly healthcare) and raising the minimum wage, which is something many Democrats have advocated themselves.

I think people worry more about the candidates, then how many different groups will react. How will the upper middle class , businesses, older Americans, conservative Americans that are Democrats, minorities, White Americans, young Americans, the wealthy, moderates, centrist, other liberals etc. You not sealing socialism to liberals or people in the left-wing in general. You are selling socialism to Americans who by and large do not trust the government , do not like large tax increases, and believe in capitalism.
Click to expand...

I've not seen any evidence it was Hillary's policies that cost her the election.
A policy-wonk, especially one who tries to not be and does not have the charisma to pull it off, needs favorable winds to do well.


  • History of being demonized
  • Interference from a foreign government
  • Interference from her own government
  • Being a women
  • Being a women AND a policy wonk
  • Being a women AND having a private email server
  • A media that is willing to equate an email server with Trump especially with this having happened.
  • Inability to project an image coupled with an unwillingness to be herself due to expected societal reactions and image.
  • Bernie's Cult of Personality
  • Following 8 years of Obama

These are a bunch of headwinds (not comprehensive), some innate and expected, others out of her control. A few of them wildcards, and very difficult to measure. I often wonder if she just ran as herself, if she would have won. But there is no evidence to support the claim.

If we pin it all on policy, we risk making changes that will chase people away.
We need evidence to make policy changes, especially some as drastic as being pushed by the far left. Especially when the platform of the Democrats is the furthest left in the modern political climate.

Edit: I think one of the biggest unspoken challenges is breaking through to the people with the facts of what Republicans actually want to do. People think it's exaggerated or lies because it's so extreme.
In middle school, I thought the line by Al Gore about Bushes tax plan could not have been factual, simply because my young naive self could not believe it.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Loxley said:
Motherfucker is going golfing again?

Dude just absolutely has to retreat to his safe space every weekend to get away from everyone yelling at him, doesn't he?
Click to expand...

Yeah, but look at all of the vacation days Obama took when he should have been fixing the giant mess he created.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Crab said:
That's a terrible graph, because university attendence went up from 10% of the population in 1968 to 52% in 2015. That graph basically says "young vs. old", not "educated vs. not educated".
Click to expand...

Wait, is there no spacial sorting in the UK based on college education across cohorts?

Also, do young people earn way more than old people?

Man. Britain is weird.
 
J

JKRMA

Banned
How has no one called out Trump's constant golf weekends to Trump or Spicer or any of the Rs?

Dude takes more vacation than anyone I know, and it is never even visiting his family and being a dad/husband!
 
H

Hellwarden

Member
Whenever I see a picture of Boris Johnson, I'm always reminded of Bizarro.

Bizarro-animated.jpg


And I think to myself, is there a good version of Boris Johnson out there somewhere, fighting the good fight?
 
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