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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Autodidact said:
Link, please?
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It was just posted.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AJentleson/status/887137073785909250

Basically McConnell is a tyrant who got away with destroying Senate norms because he promised senators results, and now he's failed to deliver in a big way.

Anyway PPP has their new national poll out and Democrats lead the generic ballot 50-40 while Trump loses to Biden, Bernie, Warren, Booker and Harris in preliminary 2020 matchups. He does tie against Zuckerberg though lulz.

I wish they'd get favorable numbers for Pelosi and Schumer so we had some point of reference, but Ryan (24/57) and McConnell's (18/58) numbers are absolutely dire.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wilsongt said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...t-606am:homepage/story&utm_term=.b6e2d5c8cc10

America needs a bigger dick to wave.
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Unlike Trump's budget, the House proposal cuts into Medicare and Social Security — entitlement programs that the president has pledged to preserve.
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Nevermind, my mistake for assuming they wouldn't touch this. I think they could do it if, as Floyd said above, it was "Bush Tax Cuts part II." I still wonder if they end up crafting the bill in that direction instead so they can just chalk it up as a win.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
Michael Flynn has been found. He's surfing.

0e748766517c4b9491573618933febbf.jpg


https://www.yahoo.com/news/flynn-returns-hometown-surfing-respite-scandal-073141885.html
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
Box of Kittens said:
Regarding the Wisconsin Senate race, Republicans normally clean up in the Milwaukee suburbs and Johnson was no exception. Trump still won those suburbs, but underperformed relative to Johnson. Johnson won the "WOW" (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) counties north and west of Milwaukee by almost 143K votes, Trump won them by less than 108K.

Trump also generally underperformed Johnson in the cities. Milwaukee County and Dane County (Madison) make up the Democratic power base in Wisconsin, so it's not surprising both Johnson and Trump lost those counties by wide margins. But while Johnson lost them by a collective margin of over 268K votes, Trump did even worse, losing by just over 309K. Trump similarly underperformed Johnson in most counties that were home to smaller cities like Green Bay, Appleton, La Cross, or Eau Claire.

Where Trump did better than Johnson is in rural parts of Western Wisconsin where Democrats have traditionally won. Lafayette, Crawford, Vernon, Richland, and Columbia Counties all went Feingold/Trump, while no counties went Johnson/Clinton. Trump also outperformed Johnson in most Feingold/Clinton and Johnson/Trump counties in Western Wisconsin. It wasn't enough to make up Johnson's "advantage" in urban and suburban counties, it was enough to win the state.

Long story short, the story painted by the Johnson/Trump comparison is a pretty familiar one for the election. Trump cleaning up in rural areas (even by Republican standards) while losing ground in the suburbs.
Click to expand...

Checks out with my anecdotal evidence. I know plenty of Republican voters in Waukesha county who could not vote for Trump but voted for Johnson. Makes me think that a "generic" R would have won by bigger margins and that Wisconsin has swung further right in recent years than people think. By that I mean we should be basing our math on Johnsons numbers than Trump's when guessing at the states lean.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Plinko said:
Nevermind, my mistake for assuming they wouldn't touch this. Carry on.
Click to expand...

You always knew that was a lie. You can't expect poor people to pay for Meal on Wheels, but they at are more than willing to line up to pay for shiny new tanks to blow up brown people.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Donald Trump: 41/55
Mitch McConnell: 18/58
Paul Ryan: 24/57

McConnell at 30/46 with REPUBLICANS.
Click to expand...

LOL republicans screwed themselves. They have a HUGE problem going into 2018 unless they make some changes.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Maxim726X said:
Trump at 41.

... Trump at 41. There is no God.
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Still a huge problem for 2020 because of his rating with independents.

DFBuSU0VYAAKgc-.jpg


I don't care what anyone says--I don't think he EVER drops below 35%. That many people are just addicted to him.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PPP said:
Trump loses by wide margins in hypothetical matches against Joe Biden (54/39) or Bernie Sanders (52/39) for reelection. Trump loses 12-13% of the folks who voted for him last fall to either Biden or Sanders. Trump also trails in hypothetical contests against Elizabeth Warren (49/42), Cory Booker (45/40), and Kamala Harris (41/40)
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That is HUGE. Age be damned--Biden could work if the democrats controlled all of Congress. Having him for 4 years and passing loads of bills would be amazing, even if another republican came in after.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
That is HUGE. Age be damned--Biden could work if the democrats controlled all of Congress. Having him for 4 years and passing loads of bills would be amazing, even if another republican came in after.
Click to expand...
I'm going to throw it out there and say there are other Democrats who could replicate that who didn't write the crime bill.

It's July 2017.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
I'm going to throw it out there and say there are other Democrats who could replicate that who didn't write the crime bill.
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The only other one at this (admittedly early) point that has anywhere near that popularity is Bernie. My issue with the whole "but he wrote the crime bill!!!" is that everyone already knows he did this and has for years. Like you say, plenty of time. I love Harris now, but still have hesitation thinking she'd be a slam dunk.

PPP said:
Only 26% of Trump voters admit that Russia wanted Trump to win the election, 44% claim Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win, and 31% say they're not sure one way or the other.
Click to expand...

I mean, this is just pure delusion.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PPP said:
Trump does win on one question in our poll- asked whether they think he or Richard Nixon is more corrupt, Trump wins out 42/35.
Click to expand...

Amazing.
And a plurality- 45%- support his impeachment- to just 43% opposed.
Click to expand...

More amazing. We heard a lot of media saying democrats should ignore this, but I wonder as time moves on and more evidence appears if this may actually be something they focus on for 2018.

whyamihere said:
It's July 2017.


He's at 41/54 with Independents in that PPP poll...
Click to expand...

I was meaning it was a problem for Trump.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
Amazing.


More amazing. We heard a lot of media saying democrats should ignore this, but I wonder as time moves on and more evidence appears if this may actually be something they focus on for 2018.



I was meaning it was a problem for Trump.
Click to expand...

Ahhh gotcha.

Plinko said:
The only other one at this (admittedly early) point that has anywhere near that popularity is Bernie. My issue with the whole "but he wrote the crime bill!!!" is that everyone already knows he did this and has for years. Like you say, plenty of time. I love Harris now, but still have hesitation thinking she'd be a slam dunk.



I mean, this is just pure delusion.
Click to expand...
Yeah, just like a ton of people knew that Hillary called black youth super predators. Sometimes this stuff gets drudges up that makes people remember the shitty things they did in their life. Biden has many of those things. See: Hill, Anita.

Again, it's early. Super early. The only take away you should have IMO is that 12% of Trump voters are willing to vote for someone else.
 
B

Blader

Member
Plinko said:
I feel like they could pass tax reform and get a little momentum going again. Everyone keeps saying it's "harder than health care," but I'm not sure that's true.
Click to expand...

Tax cuts are easy. Tax reform will be a much bigger lift.

Blergmeister said:
Checks out with my anecdotal evidence. I know plenty of Republican voters in Waukesha county who could not vote for Trump but voted for Johnson. Makes me think that a "generic" R would have won by bigger margins and that Wisconsin has swung further right in recent years than people think. By that I mean we should be basing our math on Johnsons numbers than Trump's when guessing at the states lean.
Click to expand...

Good point. I also think we should not overlook how close the margin was in Minnesota.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Maxim726X said:
Trump at 41.

... Trump at 41. There is no God.
Click to expand...

Maxim726X said:
And he's averaging high 30s. Still too high.
Click to expand...

Flip the script around--imagine Hillary had been President for the last six months and kept stepping in her own shit and had gotten absolutely nothing done, legislatively. And also had a giant scandal looming over her head. I mean I know it's literally impossible to imagine Hillary saying the completely idiotic and offensive shit Trump has said but that's beside the point because it will always be ignored by his supporters. But "promises kept" is a metric used by voters on both sides.

So--how would you answer an approval poll at this point? Or a hypothetical 2020 vote? Of course you would still "approve". Of course you're still "voting" for Hillary. Even if you're really disappointed in how it's all been going so far. Even if you're privately concerned. It's been six fucking months. You're still giving her a chance.

And if she's just as useless and legislatively incompetent in a year or a year and a half? Well, now you might be answering differently.

Trump is below 40 in what is traditionally a honeymoon period. You almost have to try to get that low at this point.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
As Enten pointed out, Trump's drop in approval from his inauguration until now pretty much mirrors the post-honeymoon phase every president goes through, except Trump started from a very low floor.

Don't be discouraged by his approval rating being "too high." Against an actually likable Democratic candidate those kinds of ratings are a fucking death sentence.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I feel like this needs to be talked about in here:
A Bloomberg News survey finds Clinton is viewed favorably by just 39 percent of Americans, compared to Trump, who is viewed favorably by 41 percent of Americans.

Fifty-eight percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Clinton, compared to a slightly lower majority — 55 percent — who have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Click to expand...

I've openly voiced my concern that our country is so backwards when it comes to sexism that I have hesitations about running Kamala Harris in 2020. I think she can be a political superstar one day, but I don't see it being an Obama "rise above the field" type thing at this point, and that worries me for a general election. For some reason, people don't want a woman in power, and it is mind-boggling to me.
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
Plinko said:
I feel like this needs to be talked about in here:


I've openly voiced my concern that our country is so backwards when it comes to sexism that I have hesitations about running Kamala Harris in 2020. I think she can be a political superstar one day, but I don't see it being an Obama-type "rise above the field" type thing at this point, and that worries me for a general election. For some reason, people don't want a woman in power, and it is mind-boggling to me.
Click to expand...

We have been over this since the election ended. Clinton, in retrospect, was a bad candidate and fucked up really bad in how she ran her campaign.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Plinko said:
I feel like this needs to be talked about in here:


I've openly voiced my concern that our country is so backwards when it comes to sexism that I have hesitations about running Kamala Harris in 2020. I think she can be a political superstar one day, but I don't see it being an Obama "rise above the field" type thing at this point, and that worries me for a general election. For some reason, people don't want a woman in power, and it is mind-boggling to me.
Click to expand...

Clinton is also a "loser" and Trump is a "winner" (even if he is a garbage person) so I'm sure that influences numbers a bit.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Plinko said:
I feel like this needs to be talked about in here:


I've openly voiced my concern that our country is so backwards when it comes to sexism that I have hesitations about running Kamala Harris in 2020. I think she can be a political superstar one day, but I don't see it being an Obama "rise above the field" type thing at this point, and that worries me for a general election. For some reason, people don't want a woman in power, and it is mind-boggling to me.
Click to expand...

Harris wouldn't be running against a 30 year smear campaign. Just some senators telling her to hush and be a good girl while the men speak during hearings.
 
A

Armoured Priest

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Flip the script around--imagine Hillary had been President for the last six months and kept stepping in her own shit and had gotten absolutely nothing done, legislatively. And also had a giant scandal looming over her head. I mean I know it's literally impossible to imagine Hillary saying the completely idiotic and offensive shit Trump has said but that's beside the point because it will always be ignored by his supporters. But "promises kept" is a metric used by voters on both sides.

So--how would you answer an approval poll at this point? Or a hypothetical 2020 vote? Of course you would still "approve". Of course you're still "voting" for Hillary. Even if you're really disappointed in how it's all been going so far. Even if you're privately concerned. It's been six fucking months. You're still giving her a chance.

And if she's just as useless and legislatively incompetent in a year or a year and a half? Well, now you might be answering differently.

Trump is below 40 in what is traditionally a honeymoon period. You almost have to try to get that low at this point.
Click to expand...

I would point out that a hypothetical Clinton presidency is still dealing with an (obstructing) republican congress. Even if dems had captured the Senate, the house likely would still be controlled by the republicans.

Clinton still likely would have got more done through virtue of Executive Actions mostly not getting shot down immediately by the courts.
 
B

benicillin

Banned
Plinko said:
I feel like this needs to be talked about in here:


I've openly voiced my concern that our country is so backwards when it comes to sexism that I have hesitations about running Kamala Harris in 2020. I think she can be a political superstar one day, but I don't see it being an Obama "rise above the field" type thing at this point, and that worries me for a general election. For some reason, people don't want a woman in power, and it is mind-boggling to me.
Click to expand...

This poll is ridiculous and worthless because one of the major reasons Clinton is disliked is because she lost. Her popularity among independents and democrats would be higher if she, you know, didn't lose.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Plinko said:
I feel like this needs to be talked about in here:


I've openly voiced my concern that our country is so backwards when it comes to sexism that I have hesitations about running Kamala Harris in 2020. I think she can be a political superstar one day, but I don't see it being an Obama "rise above the field" type thing at this point, and that worries me for a general election. For some reason, people don't want a woman in power, and it is mind-boggling to me.
Click to expand...

I don't think this is something we can really ever know for sure until we run a woman again. So.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Armoured Priest said:
I would point out that a hypothetical Clinton presidency is still dealing with an (obstructing) republican congress. Even if dems had captured the Senate, the house likely would still be controlled by the republicans.

Clinton still likely would have got more done through virtue of Executive Actions mostly not getting shot down immediately by the courts.
Click to expand...

I'm not talking really talking about how Clinton's six months would have actually gone though, I'm talking about the psychology behind supporting the choices you made less than a year ago.

No one loses their base in six months.
 
Z

Zolo

Member
benicillin said:
This poll is ridiculous and worthless because one of the major reasons Clinton is disliked is because she lost. Her popularity among independents and democrats would be higher if she, you know, didn't lose.
Click to expand...

And in the same way, Trump wouldn't be as popular with Republicans if they didn't feel obligated to stand by him.
 
L

Loxley

Member
Plinko said:
I feel like this needs to be talked about in here:


I've openly voiced my concern that our country is so backwards when it comes to sexism that I have hesitations about running Kamala Harris in 2020. I think she can be a political superstar one day, but I don't see it being an Obama-type "rise above the field" type thing at this point, and that worries me for a general election. For some reason, people don't want a woman in power, and it is mind-boggling to me.
Click to expand...

I think Hillary is a special case here (though I could be wrong). That low approval rating to me is essentially the result of 25 years of built-up misogyny + the fact that she lost the election. Republicans have despised her for decades, and Democrats are mad at her for running a poor campaign and losing.

Basically there are more Republicans who view Trump favorably right now than there are Democrats who view Hillary favorably, and I think that's what's tipping the scale in Trump's favor here. Republicans' dogged loyalty to their supreme leader vs Democrats lingering resentment towards Hillary.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
You guys hating him so much is so odd to me. I don't think anything about him at all. How could I?
 
J

jack_package_200

Banned
PBY said:
http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-mark-zuckerberg-trump-2020-election-2017-7
The Tuesday poll from the Democratic firm PublicPolicyPolling found Zuckerberg, pegged in the survey as the Democratic presidential nominee, in a dead heat against Trump at 40% each. The remaining 20% of respondents were unsure.


So stupid.

But also fuck this.
Click to expand...

Just be glad Zuckerberg would do about as well as Nina Turner in a democratic presidential party

Very poorly

Mike M said:
I was more thinking it looked like he hung himself with the light fixture behind his head.
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His hands reminded me of The Penguin
 
N

nature boy

Member
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