Gonna go ahead and say it, at the risk of jinxing it - I think she beats Heller.
I'll take those odds
That other special election:
https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/norma...na-5th-district-special-election-fc736c536bc8
Ralph Norman (R) 53
Archie Parnell (D) 44
If Ossoff loses and this ends up being a single-digit race, expect a lot of hand-wringing about Democrats blowing a "winnable" (probably not) race.
Ahem.
I figure she is, she was way too dodgy when asked directly about it, but until she outright says it I'm hedging my bets.whyamihere said:
Not a good poll.
I'm disappointed he didn't sound like Gilbert Gottfried. Damn you John Oliver.
She looks like a winner. I do not mean this in a Trump-esque kind of way. I simply mean she looks like a winner.
@ForecasterEnten
So I aggregated the polls in different ways... Different techniques get you slightly different answers... but all say anyone could win. 1/?
@ForecasterEnten
It's pretty clear the polls have tightened over the last week. Is that signal? noise? Unsure, but it def occurred. 2/?
@ForecasterEnten
Historically, I have error rates for the 3 week average. The margin of error on that is +/- 13 pts or so Ossoff's 1.6 pt lead. 3/?
@ForecasterEnten
Probability wise that translates roughly into a candidate in Ossoff's position winning 6 times out of 10. Losing 4 times out of 10.
Titus would have blown this race so badly. Just Berkleyed all over the place.
This seems like better odds than I thought. Gonna be dramatic either way.
A serious issue with it right now is that if you don't have kids or are a non-custodial parent you don't get jack from it.
It's because the GOP is a party of conservative men. Any high profile woman will be targeted and pilloried.
tbh Thompson did way better than Quist but was stuck in a much worse district to try for
Over 140,000 ballots have already been cast in the Georgia congressional race Tuesday in which Democrat Jon Ossoff is looking to flip a decades-held Republican seat and defeat GOP opponent Karen Handel and there are some slightly positive signs for the Democrat.
As of June 19, 140,510 votes (a quarter of all registered voters in the district) have been cast. This number is more than double the number of early votes in the April 18 runoff election (58,825) and approaches the number of early voters for the 2016 presidential race last November (195,852).
Although Ossoff did remarkably well among early voters in the April 18 runoff election, he performed much worse among Election Day voters, and many more voters went to the polls rather than vote in advance. This is also consistent with patterns of early voting in key swing states that looked advantageous for Clinton in the 2016 general election but did not provide a solid enough lead to win.
The final result in the runoff election underscores an important caveat when interpreting early votes: Election Day turnout and voter composition is not fully known until Election Day and certainly has the ability to change the outcome of the election.
Demographics of early special election voters helps get a sense of how a race might be shaping up. In particular, party affiliation is usually the best predictor of how someone might vote. Using party affiliation as a proxy for vote choice is trickier in the case of Georgia, however, which does not require voters to self-affiliate with a particular party when registering to vote.
In order to gauge what types of voters might be turning out for the June 20 race, the NBC News Data Analytics Lab analyzed partisan scores computed and provided by TargetSmart. These scores estimate the likelihood that a voter supports the Democratic or Republican Party. Scores closer to 0 represent more likely Republican voters and scores closer to 100 represent more likely Democratic voters.
The figure below, which plots the distribution of partisan scores among April 18 voters overall, shows that Georgia District 6 voters are more Republican-leaning than Democratic.
Among early June 20 voters, we see a similar distribution of partisans indicating a likely close race between Ossoff and Handel.
While these scores give us some idea of the actual vote, they are only approximate, and other variables may be more useful in interpreting how a race is headed. Perhaps a more clear way to measure how Ossoff and Handel might be doing is to look at early voters by race.
In the April 18 election, African-American voters made up 10.5 percent of early voters and 8.81 percent of Election Day voters. In early June 20 voting so far, African-American voters make up 9.41 percent of early voters down slightly from their proportion among early voters in the April 18 voting round. Hispanic and Asian voters, however, make up slightly larger proportions of the electorate indicating that Ossoffs campaign might be successful in mobilizing other minority voters.
The age and racial breakdown of these voters may give some clues for whether these new voters might be leaning toward Ossoff or Handel. These voters are considerably less white than early voters overall a potentially good sign for Ossoff.
Additionally, these voters skew slightly younger than early voters overall. This could potentially be another positive sign for Ossoff as Democrats tend to gain larger support from young voters.
